January 3rd, 2020: German, Torres, Roster Check-In, Lefty Bats, McHugh, Haase, Mailbag

Happy New Year everyone. I hope your 2020 is going better than your 2019. Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in six short weeks. It's so close and yet so far at the same time. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as I realize left-handed Gerrit Cole looks like a shorter Randy Johnson.

1. German's suspension. Yesterday afternoon MLB announced Domingo German has been suspended 81 games under under the league's domestic violence policy. German gets credit for the games he missed while on administrative leave last season, so he has to serve 63 games in 2020. He will be eligible to return on Friday, June 5th. That is the opener of a three-game home series against the Rays. The 81-game suspension is the fourth longest under the domestic violence policy and more than double the previous longest in which no criminal charges were filed (Addison Russell was suspended 40 games with no charges).

1. Jose Torres, Padres: 100 games
2. Odubel Herrera, Phillies: 85 games
3. Hector Olivera, Braves: 82 games
4. Domingo German, Yankees: 81 games
5. Roberto Osuna, Blue Jays: 75 games

The press release says German agreed not to appeal the suspension and that is standard practice. In fact, MLB typically negotiates the suspension with the player and the MLBPA. Aroldis Chapman agreed to his 30-game suspension in 2016 because it still allowed him to become a free agent after the season. A longer ban would've cost him enough service time to push back his free agency. Mark Feinsand and Sweeny Murti report German will not be allowed to participate in Spring Training and will be given a 15-day window to play in what amount to minor league rehab games leading up to his return (tune-up stints are standard for domestic violence and performance-enhancing drug suspensions), and he will be eligible to play in the postseason. Where German fits on the roster (rotation? bullpen? trade chip?) when he returns is something we can worry about when the time comes. June 5th is a very long time away. It has been common knowledge German would be suspended some length of time next season since he was put on administrative leave -- domestic violence investigations always result in suspensions -- so this is no surprise, and the Yankees have enough rotation depth to weather the storm even with a J.A. Happ salary dump. We don't have any details about the incident -- there are conflicting reports about what happened and that's never a good sign in this "I had it first!" era of reporting -- and it is human nature to be curious, but chances are we will never find out. There's no police report, so there's no public record, and MLB and the MLBPA want to keep these incidents as under wraps as possible to maintain privacy and encourage other victims to come forward. The 81-game suspension -- again, that is nearly double the previous longest suspension in which no charges were filed -- suggests whatever happened was very bad. Hopefully German and the victim and anyone else involved get the help they need. For them, baseball is far from the most important thing right now. 

2. ZiPS on Gleyber. As part of his ongoing series, Dan Szymborski eulogized the 2019 Yankees at FanGraphs yesterday. Buried at the bottom of the post is a multi-year ZiPS projection for Gleyber Torres -- Szymborski is the man behind ZiPS -- and folks, let me tell you, it is bonkers. Look at this:

Forty-plus homers a year the next five years! That's an average of 44.6 homers a year from 2020-24. For reference, Nelson Cruz led baseball with 204 homers the last five years, or 40.8 per year. ZiPS has Torres averaging 44.6 homers the next five years. That is insane. I can't believe a projection system is that bullish about any player and as much as I want to believe, I can't do it. I have a hard time buying almost any player's true talent level as 40+ homers annually across a five-year span. That is rarefied air. Maybe homer friendly Yankee Stadium and the rocket ball are skewing ZiPS. Here's the thing though: you could knock 10 dingers a year off that projection and Gleyber would still be an All-Star. Offensively, he has been one of the 10 best 22-and-under middle infielders in baseball history:

1. Rogers Hornsby: 150 OPS+ through age 22 (Hall of Famer)
2. Eddie Collins: 150 OPS+ (Hall of Famer)
3. Carlos Correa: 137 OPS+
4. Arky Vaughan: 137 OPS+ (Hall of Famer)
5. Alex Rodriguez: 132 OPS+ (Hall of Fame credentials)
6. Joe Morgan: 128 OPS+ (Hall of Famer)
7. Vern Stephens: 127 OPS+ (eight-time All-Star)
8. Larry Doyle: 127 OPS+ (MVP winner)
9. Cal Ripken Jr.: 127 OPS+ (Hall of Famer)
10. Gleyber Torres: 124 OPS+

Gleyber is keeping some company. Playing shortstop, his natural and more familiar position, should steady his defensive numbers going forward, and he managed to cut his strikeout rate (25.2% to 21.4%), his swing-and-miss rate (14.0% to 13.2%), and his chase rate (33.7% to 32.6%) from 2018 to 2019 while increasing his in-zone swing rate (66.2% to 74.1%), all of which points to a young hitter beginning to master the strike zone. Yes, Torres, beat the everloving crap out of the Orioles last year and it skews his numbers -- Gleyber hit only .263/.318/.465 (103 wRC+) against non-O's teams in 2019 -- but the underlying trends were very positive, and besides, those numbers against the Orioles count. Baltimore played 162 games last year. Torres wasn't the only guy who took his hacks against them. I expect Torres to solidify himself as the Yankees best player this coming season -- readers of the old RAB chats will know I've been saying that since last year -- and not because I think Aaron Judge will start to decline. It's because I think Gleyber will be that good. That ZiPS projection is outrageous and the next five years playing out like that would be amazing. I'd sign up for even 80% of that projection. ZiPS, a completely objective system that projects players using statistically similar players, absolutely loves Torres, and that is pretty rad. Certainly better than the alternative, anyway.

3. Roster check-in. It has been three weeks since the two sides reportedly agreed to terms, but Brett Gardner's new one-year contract is still not official. Players generally want to sign their new contract as soon as possible, so I think it's more likely the holidays and vacations have slowed things down than it is the Yankees waiting to finalize Gardner's deal until after they clean up their 40-man roster logjam. Whatever it is, the deal will be made official soon enough, maybe even later today. Here is next year's projected 26-man roster using players currently in the organization:

The Yankees still have to drop someone to clear a 40-man roster spot for Gardner (Stephen Tarpley?) and German does not count against the 40-man while on administrative leave or suspended. A Happ trade seems likely, and now that the free agent pitching market has been picked clean, his market should heat up. The Angels still make the most sense to me as a potential trade partner. Montgomery is the logical candidate to step in as the fifth starter once Happ is moved, though I could see the Yankees stretching King and Loaisiga (and Cessa?) out in Spring Training. No harm in a little Grapefruit League competition. There are a few interchangeable parts on that roster (Estrada over Wade, Frazier over Ford, Heller over Loaisiga etc.), but that's the 2020 roster right now. I haven't done an updated luxury tax payroll estimate since the Cole signing, so let's do that now. This is for the 26-man roster listed above:

• Guaranteed contracts (11 players): $181.1M
• Arbitration-eligibles (9 players): $34.6M (per MLBTR projections)
• Pre-arbitration-eligibles (6 players): $3.6M (estimated to fill out 26-man roster)
• Dead money: $21.9M (Jacoby Ellsbury)
• Miscellaneous: $18M (estimated for benefits, rest of 40-man roster, etc.)

That adds up to $259.2M, so let's call it an even $260M, well above the $248M third luxury tax threshold. A full J.A. Happ salary dump gets the Yankees down to $243M, leaving $5M or so to get through the season. That includes injury call-ups and trade deadline additions and whatnot. The Yankees may save a couple bucks with their arbitration-eligibles -- not counting Severino and his extension, last year's arbitration class came in at $2.6375M below the projections -- and then there's the Ellsbury wild card. The Yankees could save a boatload of money with a grievance win (or a Yoenis Cespedes style settlement), but, until that happens, they have to proceed under the assumption Ellsbury's entire salary will be on the books in 2020. Hopefully that mess gets wrapped up soon and we get payroll clarity. The Yankees will be so close to the $248M third luxury tax threshold even with a full Happ salary dump that, unless the Ellsbury situation gets resolved soon or they do something drastic and unexpected to clear out money like trade Kahnle ($3.0M projected) or Urshela ($2.2M projected), they should probably just go over the $248M threshold. That $5M in wiggle room isn't much across 162 games, and I'd hate to see the Yankees try to stay under only to finish the year at like $250M because they had to make a bunch of injury call-ups again. Once you go over $248M and move your top 2021 draft pick back 10 spots, you might as well keep going over. The Yankees can afford the extra $0.75 on every dollar they spend over $248M. Ellsbury definitely drops off the books next year and so does Tanaka ($22.1M), so payroll relief is coming. The sweet spot would be dumping Happ and planning for a $255M to $260M payroll in 2020. That would leave the Yankees with enough money to add a piece or two this winter (reliever to replace Holder? bench player to replace Ford?), add more than spare parts at the trade deadline, and survive any necessary injury call-ups. And, if the Ellsbury situations yields a favorable result for the Yankees, they could still get under the $248M threshold. I'd rather the team plan to go over that threshold and spend accordingly now, and take any good Ellsbury news when it comes, then wait for the Ellsbury resolution before deciding to spend more, you know? The latter is a good way to miss out on potential upgrades and still wind up over the $248M threshold. "You're dropping 10 slots in the draft and obviously there are dollar ramifications to (exceeding $248M) as well, but financially I was able to do this (Cole) deal. We've got some payroll flexibility next year as you know, so we'll see what happens," Hal Steinbrenner said at the Cole press conference.

4. Left-handed bats. Corey Dickerson, my personal favorite lefty bat option, signed with the Marlins this past weekend. They gave him two years and $17.5M. Props to the Marlins for trying to be respectable. Not enough bad teams do that. (How bad do the Orioles look for trading Jonathan Villar to Miami? Imagine not trying as hard as the Marlins.) Two years and $17.5M is a good deal for Dickerson. I would've been cool with the Yankees giving him that, luxury tax concerns notwithstanding. Who knows whether he would've would've taken it -- I can understand preferring the Marlins given the playing time certainty -- but the contract is reasonable. The list of available free agent lefty bats is bleak with Dickerson heading to Miami (reminder: projections are an estimated talent level, not a prediction):  

Projected 2020 WAR (link)
1. Asdrubal Cabrera: +1.6 WAR (switch-hitter)
2. Jason Kipnis: +1.3 WAR
3. Alex Gordon: +0.9 WAR
4. Joe Panik: +0.7 WAR (linked to the Yankees on a minor league deal)
t-5. Brock Holt, Scooter Gennett, Mitch Moreland: +0.6

Projected 2020 wRC+ (link)
1. Matt Joyce: 105 wRC+
2. Mitch Moreland: 101 wRC+
3. Logan Morrison: 101 wRC+
4. Asdrubal Cabrera: 101 wRC+ (switch-hitter)
5. Eric Thames: 100 wRC+

Jason Castro topped that projected WAR leaderboard before signing with the Angels last night. Signing him to back up Gary Sanchez would have been a sensible move in a vacuum. The money (one year and $6.85M) wouldn't have worked though. The Yankees never pay big for a backup catcher, relatively speaking. Gordon signing a low-cost one-year deal and hitting .280/.350/.480 with his typically strong defense in left field would be an extremely Yankees thing. He's Royals or retirement though. Cabrera is a poor defender who fits best as a part-timer. Kipnis hasn't hit in three years now and Moreland, Morrison, and Panik elicit great big mehs. Thames is the big name -- "recognizable" is probably more accurate than "big" -- but Joyce is a similar player and a candidate to sign a smaller contract. The side-by-side comparison:

Joyce and Thames are both lefty hitters who punish righties and don't do much else (play good defense, add value on the bases, hit lefties, etc.). The shape of their production is different -- Thames is a power hitter with swing-and-miss in his game while Joyce is more of a contact/doubles dude -- but they provide roughly the same value. Joyce is two years older, and, as my boy R.J. Anderson wrote, there's a chance he becomes a walks-only hitter as he ages, but it'll (probably) be a cheap one-year deal, so who cares? If it doesn't work, you move on and adjust. Joyce can hit the ball to all fields and he has pull power (2017-19 spray chart vs. righties) ...

... something that will play well in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees could use another lefty bat and Joyce can hit righties and split time in left field and at DH with Giancarlo Stanton, which is where Dickerson would've slotted in. Joyce was with two pretty smart teams last season (Indians and Giants) before sticking with the first place Braves, and I guess that's a good sign? Kinda like when the other teams most after DJ LeMahieu were the Dodgers and Rays. Smart front offices saw something there. Oh geez, I think I just talked myself into wanting the Yankees to sign Matt Joyce as a lefty platoon outfielder. How in the world did that happen? The Yankees should put one year and $2M on the table and sign whichever one of Gordon, Joyce, or Thames takes it first. To put it another way:

The Yankees don't absolutely need another lefty bat, but one would be nice, and preferably that guy would provide more positional flexibility than Mike Ford. And besides, it's not Ford or Gordon/Joyce/Thames. It's Ford and Gordon/Joyce/Thames. Signing a free agent like Joyce is about adding options to Ford, not replacing him. (Tell me you can't see a scenario where Ford and Gordon/Joyce/Thames wind up in the lineup everyday for a stretch of time this coming season.) My sense is the Yankees are perfectly fine with their right-handed heavy lineup and will only add a lefty bat on a very cheap contract, maybe even a minor league deal only. And hey, if the Yankees pass on adding a lefty hitter and give those at-bats to Clint Frazier, I'd be totally cool with it. With Dickerson off the board, free agency has little to offer in the way of lefty bats now. Joyce and Thames are the best among a flawed and underwhelming group of players, I think.

5. Pursuing McHugh. It is January and that means we've entered the "the Yankees should consider signing this free agent I've heard of" period of the offseason. This week's entry: Collin McHugh. The 32-year-old right-hander had a poor 2019 season (4.70 ERA and 4.43 FIP in 74.2 innings) when the Astros stuck him back in the rotation, but he was outstanding as a full-time reliever in 2018: 1.99 ERA (2.72 FIP) with 33.2% strikeouts and 7.4% walks in 72.1 innings. McHugh was the original spin rate guy -- Houston claimed him off waivers from the Rockies in 2013, made some tweaks and turned him into a competent starter, and that's when the spin rate stuff took off -- and he was still spinning the crap out of the ball last year. He picked up a slider in 2017 and committed to the anti-fastball philosophy, so much so that McHugh threw quite a bit more sliders than fastballs last season:

Coincidentally -- or perhaps not -- McHugh battled elbow trouble throughout last season, and he did not pitch after August 30th. He was effective after moving back into the bullpen in mid-May (2.67 ERA and 3.42 FIP in 33.2 innings) and the Astros probably could've used him in the postseason given how much they had to lean on Will Harris, who looked worn down at the end of the World Series. McHugh's market has been dead quiet this offseason. The last update to his MLBTR archive was a note he'd been shut down in September. That's probably a bad sign. The elbow may be scaring teams away. The elbow has definitely cut into McHugh's earning potential -- had he stayed healthy and spent the entire 2019 season in the bullpen, he might've been looking at two years and $18M (or more) this winter -- enough that he could be an option for the Yankees even if they are planning to stay under the $248M third luxury tax threshold. It would be the devil you don't know (McHugh and his elbow) over the devil you do (Dellin Betances and his shoulder and Achilles), but the contract should be smaller, and it's the same basic idea. A veteran reliever who was dynamite as recently as 2018 on a one-year prove yourself contract. And hey, maybe McHugh could be an option to start with a healthy elbow. The Yankees are all about spin rate and, at least under former pitching coach Larry Rothschild, they were cool with the anti-fastball philosophy, so McHugh fits in that sense. The Yankees are in great position to roll the dice on a reclamation projection reliever because their bullpen is so strong and they don't need that guy to produce. The Dodgers need Blake Treinen to be an impact reliever. The Mets need Betances to be a game-changer. The Yankees wouldn't need McHugh to throw high-leverage innings. At least not right away. They can bring him in and ease him into game action post-elbow injury while the core bullpen arms (Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino) handle the heavy lifting. Whatever McHugh (or any other reclamation project reliever) gives them would be a bonus. It's a good situation for the team and it could be a good situation for McHugh as well, coming to an analytics savvy organization with a chance to win. Could be a fit depending on the money. Two years ago McHugh was fantastic as a full-time reliever and last year he was solid in the bullpen when his elbow wasn't barking. Adding that guy to the roster as the No. 6 bullpen option on a low-cost one-year contract could be a nifty little move.

6. Pursuing Haase. Two weeks ago the Yankees re-signed Erik Kratz to a minor league deal to be their third catcher. He'll compete with Kyle Higashioka in Spring Training and likely go to Triple-A Scranton to serve as depth. Another depth catcher hit the market earlier this week: Eric Haase. The Indians designated the 27-year-old backstop for assignment to clear 40-man roster space for Cesar Hernandez. Haase is an all-or-nothing hitter with power -- he hit .231/.301/.476 (103 wRC+) with 48 home runs and a 32.5% strikeout rate in 222 Triple-A games the last two years -- who has gone 3-for-32 (.094) with 14 strikeouts in limited big league time as a September call-up, so, unless he runs into a mistake, the bat's not great. Haase has thrown out 45% (!) of attempted basestealers the last two years in Triple-A though, and both Baseball America ("earned praise for his receiving") and MLB.com ("scores well in Cleveland's framing metrics") showed love for his receiving in their prospect scouting reports going into 2019, so it seems the defense is there. (For what it's worth, Haase was at -0.5 framing runs in Triple-A in 2019, so essentially league average.) A mistake hitter with power, a strong arm, and average-ish framing makes for a competent depth catcher. And here's the other thing: Haase has a minor league option remaining. He can be shuttled up and down with ease this coming season. Higashioka and Kratz are out of options and can not. They have to go through waivers to go to Triple-A, limiting roster flexibility at a very important position. The Yankees could claim Haase -- the Indians have until Sunday to trade, release, or waive him -- and bring him into the organization as a depth catcher. As for opening a 40-man roster spot, there are two options. One is drop someone else. Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Stephen Tarpley, whoever. The other is designate Haase himself for assignment. The Yankees are so far down the waiver priority order that if they manage to win the claim for Haase, there's a pretty good chance he will slip through unclaimed if they put him back on waivers. Clearing would keep him in the organization as a non-40-man roster player, and, if the Yankees need to call him up at some point during the season, they could re-add him to the 40-man, then option him back down with no waivers. That's preferable to calling up and potentially losing Kratz because you need a backup catcher for only 10 days in May, you know? If Haase gets claimed when he goes back on waivers, oh well. Then the Yankees are right back where they started. Claiming Haase and going into 2020 with Gary Sanchez and Higashioka at the MLB level, and Kratz and Haase at the Triple-A level, is good catching depth. It's not great, but it's workable. I wouldn't trade anything to get Haase, but I'd place a waiver claim and see what happens. Claim him, then immediately put him on outright waivers and hope he clears so he can stick around as a non-40-man guy. Haase is a worthwhile target as an optionable fourth catcher on the depth chart.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Michael asks: Even if they did re-sign Gardner, why are we necessarily out on Starling Marte? That would allow Gardner to play his true position in left instead of Stanton who can move to DH. He’s got 1 guaranteed year $11.5M and a highly reasonable $12.5M team option for next year. Guy had a .845 OPS, 120 OPS+, 25 steals, .295 BA, and hit 23 bombs at a premium position. I know mtps, but what about Clint Frazier, Albert Abreu, Jonathan Holder, and some lower level non-top tier prospect they like for Marte?

Did you know Marte is 31 already? I would've guessed 28 or 29. Anyway, Marte's a really good player even with defense slipping a little bit, and yes, the Yankees could easily make room for him on the roster. Marte in center, Brett Gardner in left, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, then figure out how everyone fits when Aaron Hicks returns when Aaron Hicks returns.

Marte would be yet another righty bat in a right-handed heavy lineup, but it's a very good righty bat, and the priority should be quality over handedness. Give me a good righty over a just okay lefty. Jon Heyman says the Pirates may prefer a prospect trade package for Marte, so the Yankees may not even have to subtract from their MLB roster to get him.

I guess the only potential drawback is opportunity cost. The Yankees aren't deep in trade chips, and do they want to use them to add another outfielder? Marte would be flippable, so the Yankees could deal him and recoup prospects at the deadline or next winter. Do they want to use whatever payroll space they have available on another outfielder? I dunno.

I hadn't considered Marte as an option at all mostly because the Yankees are pretty well set in the outfield at the moment, but I like the idea. He's a really good player who does a little of everything, and the contract is affordable. Marte is available, but alas, there have been zero indications the Yankees are interested. Nice idea though.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Ray asks: The Yanks need another outfielder (unless you love Tauchman). The Reds now seem to have a glut. Does Jesse Winker make sense? Lefty with power who's strictly a platoon bat since he can't hit same side pitchers, but he's young, not even arb eligible yet. It's the left side (potential) power that intrigues me.

Winker is the type of player statheads (like me) loved 10-15 years ago. He draws a ton of walks and has power, and those are two valuable skills. He also does nothing else. Bad defense, bad baserunning, needs a platoon partner. That's how you hit .299/.405/.431 (128 wRC+) in 334 plate appearances and still check in at -0.1 WAR like Winker did in 2018.

The Reds seem determined to replace Winker this winter, or at least reduce their reliance on him. They signed Japanese import Shogo Akiyama last week and they're still in the mix for Marcell Ozuna, reportedly. Winker had a hip injury in August 2017, shoulder surgery in July 2018, and a season-ending back injury in August 2019, so he's kinda like Cincinnati's Greg Bird.

Winker is only 26 and he's always hit when healthy. He could fill that Corey Dickerson/Matt Joyce part-time left fielder/part-time DH lefty bat role I keep talking about. The Yankees should give the Reds a call and see what they want in return. Never hurts to ask. A Clint Frazier for Jesse Winker challenge trade is a fun little idea. 

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)