December 23rd, 2019: Lindor, Happ, Kratz, Krause, 2019 Draft, 2020 Draft, Hader, Maldonado, Panik

Happy holidays, folks. I have family obligations the next few days and I don't feel like waking up earlier than I need to tomorrow to publish the regularly scheduled Tuesday post, so here it is a day early. Santa has already left Cole in our stocking (I'm sorry, I'm so sorry) and I hope there's something cool waiting under the tree. On to the thoughts.

1. Lindor trade. Folks, I can't stop thinking about the Yankees trading for Francisco Lindor. Blame @zs190 for putting it back in my head. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) says the Indians told interested teams they wanted everyone's "best and final offers" this past weekend, though that doesn't necessarily mean a trade is imminent, or will happen at all. Cleveland is simply gauging the market and weighing their options. Lindor turned only 26 last month and he is a brilliant two-way talent who switch-hits, has power, doesn't strike out, plays fantastic defense, and is easier to love than Baby Yoda. He's awesome and I needn't explain why he's a worthwhile trade target. Do the Yankees need Lindor? Not really, they're good enough to win the AL East and the World Series as is, but complacency breeds failure, and there's no reason to stop trying to improve. Lindor at shortstop, Gleyber Torres at second base, and DJ LeMahieu in the super utility infielder role would be a helluva thing, no? The Astros appear more vulnerable right now than at any point in the last three or four years. They are still very good, obviously, but their rotation is fronted by two 36-year-olds, and they're apparently so short on cash that they're considering trading Carlos Correa to free up payroll. Plus there's the double whammy of losing Gerrit Cole to a direct postseason competitor. Houston is very good but they are more beatable than they have been in a few years now, and Lindor could help the Yankees get over that hump. The Dodgers are content to be very good and not make the big move that pushes them over the top. The Red Sox are cutting payroll. And, as good as they are, neither the Braves nor Twins leave you shaking in your boots. Lindor is a true difference-maker who can swing the balance of power in a postseason series, and he'd help separate the Yankees from the rest of the pack. Look at this and try not to do the heart eyes emoji:

1. 1B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Francisco Lindor
4. LF Giancarlo Stanton
5. 2B Gleyber Torres
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. DH Luke Voit
8. 3B Gio Urshela
9. CF Brett Gardner

Realistically, there is no way to fit Lindor and his projected $16.7M salary under the $248M third luxury tax threshold, even with a full J.A. Happ salary dump, so the Yankees would have to go into the third penalty tier (increased tax rate and top 2021 draft pick moves back 10 spots) for at least one year, until Jacoby Ellsbury and Masahiro Tanaka (and James Paxton) come off the books next winter. Something Hal Steinbrenner said about giving out a $324M contract at Cole's press conference applies to Lindor and the luxury tax burden: "If you're going to do it, it needs to be a guy like this." Going into the third penalty tier for a marginally better backup catcher or long reliever doesn't make much sense. For a guy like Lindor though? Absolutely. The Yankees are as win-now as it gets and Lindor would add multiple wins to the ledger, and improve the club's World Series odds about as much as any single non-Mike Trout player in the game. I assume the Indians will take the best possible talent package in a Lindor trade rather than try to fill specific needs, and the Yankees should open the farm system to get him. Everyone except Gleyber should be on the table. Deivi Garcia? Easy yes. Miguel Andujar? I love him, but I'd pay for his Uber to the airport to get Lindor. Jasson Dominguez? As great as the kid looks, I couldn't let a 16-year-old stand in the way of getting a player like Lindor when my World Series window is this open. Open the farm system and let Cleveland pick three or four dudes, and be done with it. The sketchy trade value site thinks this is fair ...

... and sign me the hell up for that. Too bad this is the real world and you can't keep adding players to a trade package until the surplus value evens out. The Dodgers are said to be in the mix for Lindor -- I don't believe they'll trade the prospects it'll take, but who knows -- and they have top young players to offer in Gavin Lux and Alex Verdugo (and others). The Reds are involved and they can put Nick Senzel and Jonathan India on the table. The Yankees don't have that elite prospect to build a trade package around, so they're at a disadvantage, in theory. That said, the Indians just traded Corey Kluber for a nondescript fourth outfielder and a bullpen prospect, so maybe they're really desperate to shed salary, or like certain prospects in the system more than we realize. Maybe they're really big fans of Luis Gil or Antonio Cabello. Who knows? That'd be cool. Point is, the Yankees have already gone big for Cole this offseason, and why stop there? Get Lindor, live with the luxury tax burden for a year, push yourself ahead of the Astros and Dodgers, and increase your chances of winning a World Series (or two) the next two years (Lindor has two years of team control remaining). Being good enough already is not a reason to pass on a great player. If there's a non-Gleyber package of young players and prospects that satisfies the Indians, the Yankees should do it. It is damn near impossible to lose a "prospects for a superstar" trade and Lindor would put the Yankees in even better position to contend for a World Series title.

2. Happ trade market. Within the last week Dallas Keuchel signed with the White Sox (three years and $55.5M) and Hyun-Jin Ryu signed with the Blue Jays (four years and $80M), and, with that, the free agent pitching market has been mostly picked clean. Only six unsigned free agent starters project for at least +1 WAR next season and one's hurt and another isn't really a starter:

1. Homer Bailey: +1.6 WAR
2. Alex Wood: +1.6 WAR
3. Rich Hill: +1.3 WAR (out until the All-Star break after elbow surgery)
4. Ivan Nova: +1.3 WAR
5. Jhoulys Chacin: +1.2 WAR
6. Robbie Erlin: +1.0 WAR (13 starts and 63 relief appearances last two years)

Keuchel and Ryu coming off the board before Christmas is good news for the Yankees and their endeavor to trade J.A. Happ and his $17M salary. Teams that need rotation help have little choice but to turn to the trade market right now and Happ, as crummy as he was this past season, has a track record of durability, and there is reason to believe he will be better once the rocket ball goes away (if it ever does). A partial list of contenders and wannabe contenders that need another starter: Angels, Athletics, Brewers, Phillies, Twins, and maybe even the Dodgers after losing Ryu, though they have some young arms they could break in. Happ is presumably out of the A's price range. Oakland has been phased out of revenue sharing as part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement and 2020 is the first year they'll get nothing, which partly explains why they had to non-tender Blake Treinen. The Brewers probably can't afford Happ either at this point. The Angels are desperate and they missed out on every single first tier and second tier free agent starter, and instead signed Julio Teheran and traded for Dylan Bundy. Geez. GM Billy Eppler recently said his goal was to add innings to the rotation -- "It was important to try to bring some stability or certainty to our rotation," he told Jeff Fletcher -- which Teheran (30+ starts each of the last seven years) and Bundy (28+ starts each of the last three years) can provide, as could Happ. The Angels reportedly offered Happ a three-year contract before he signed with the Yankees last year, and that interest could linger. Their rotation needs certainly do. The Phillies also pursued Happ last offseason and, even after signing Zack Wheeler, they need one more starting pitcher. Jake Arrieta is coming back from elbow surgery and both Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta pitched so poorly this past season that they were demoted to the bullpen. I'm less sold on the Phillies taking on Happ's entire salary than the Angels, but Philadelphia could work. The Twins? Good gravy are they going to do anything this offseason? And no, signing Alex Avila and Tyler Clippard, and re-signing Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Sergio Romo doesn't count. They've made no improvements at all and this is the rotation depth chart on the team's official site:

Seems bad. Pineda is going to miss the first 39 games next season as he finishes serving his performance-enhancing drug suspension, by the way. The Twins are a logical trade partner for Happ, except they've shown little to no urgency this winter, so maybe they're just gonna wing it with guys like Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe. To me, the Angels are clearly the best possible trade partner for Happ. They're desperate, they need innings, they had interest in him as recently as last year, and I think they're most likely to take on the entire contract without a significant sweetener attached. The Phillies and Twins could work too, plus another club could always jump into the mix (Padres?). With starting pitching, the demand always outweighs the supply, and now the free agent supply is very short. David Price and Robbie Ray are out there, but Price has a huge contract (even if the Red Sox eat money, it's still a three-year commitment) and Ray will require giving up actual prospects. Happ hits the sweet spot as a short-term commitment without a significant prospect cost. If the Yankees are willing to go over the $248M third luxury tax threshold, keeping Happ as rotation depth is fine with me, but I don't believe that's the case. I think they want to get under the threshold and dumping his entire salary is the best way to do it. Now that Keuchel and Ryu are off the board, the Happ trade chatter should pick up. (Also, the Blue Jays are going to be a headache next season. I don't think they're a postseason team yet, but those young bats with a competent rotation won't make life easy in the AL East.)

3. The Kratzken returns. Welcome back, Erik Kratz. The Yankees have signed the 39-year-old journeyman catcher to a minor league contract, according to Jon Heyman. Safe to assume he'll be in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. Kratz has spent parts of the last three seasons in the organization -- he was with the MLB team in late 2017 (which led to this photo following ALDS Game 5), Triple-A Scranton in early 2018, and Triple-A Scranton again in late 2019 --  and he owns the highest OPS in Yankees history (minimum two plate appearances):

1. Erik Kratz: 2.500 OPS (2-for-2 with a double)
2. Chris Latham: 2.000 OPS (2-for-2)
3. Chris Parmelee: 1.875 OPS (4-for-8 with a double and two homers)
4. Dazzy Vance: 1.833 OPS (2-for-3 with a double and three walks)
5. Johnny Schmitz: 1.600 OPS (3-for-5 with a triple)

Drop the minimum to one plate appearance and Branden Pinder is the franchise leader with a 3.000 OPS (1-for-1 with a double), so there's your fun fact for the week. Anyway, the Yankees were always going to add a veteran catcher on a minor league contract for depth purposes this offseason, and now they've done that. It doesn't stop them from acquiring an established backup catcher, though I don't expect that to happen. The Yankees seem pretty set on giving Kyle Higashioka a shot next season -- I didn't realize this until Randy Miller pointed it out, but Higashioka and Gerrit Cole were travel ball teammates as teenagers in Southern California -- and Kratz was brought in to compete for the job in Spring Training and provide depth in Triple-A. Injuries happen, especially at the catching position, and Kratz will be the guy the Yankees call up should they lose Gary Sanchez or Higashioka at some point. Kratz is the epitome of a journeyman -- he's spent time at the Triple-A level every season since 2006 (!) -- but he keeps getting work because he has power, he plays a demanding position, and he's regarded as a great clubhouse guy. The Yankees know catching and this is now the fourth time they've brought Kratz aboard -- they traded for him in 2017 and signed him in 2018, 2019, and now 2020 -- so they like something about him. Pitch-framing, his work with pitchers, I dunno, but something. With any luck, Higashioka will do solid work as the backup catcher and Kratz will spend the season mentoring all those young arms the Yankees will have with Triple-A Scranton (Deivi Garcia, Mike King, Nick Nelson, etc.). If there's an injury or Higashioka flops, and the Yankees need to call Kratz up, so be it. That's what he's there for, to be the break glass in case of emergency option. The Yankees needed someone to push Higashioka in Spring Training and be a Triple-A depth option behind the plate and Kratz is that guy. Don't be surprised if the Yankees bring in another catcher on a minor league deal just to really protect themselves. You don't want to be caught shorthanded at that position.

4. Krause fired. The Yankees have dismissed strength and conditioning coach Matt Krause, according to George King. He'd been with the Yankees since 2014 and was believed to have two years remaining on his contract. After this record-setting injury season -- the Yankees put 30 different players on the injured list in 2019, a new MLB record, and their 2,780 man games lost to injury are more than 600 more than any other team in Spotrac's database, which goes back to 2015 -- it was only a matter of time until the Yankees made a change to the training staff. Someone was going to be scapegoated at the absolute minimum. Here's what Brian Cashman said about potential changes to the training staff during his end-of-season press conference in October. From Brendan Kuty:

“Our focus and our concerns on how our processes played out this year and the numerous injuries that we had. The failed rehabs that we had in some cases. Our area of focus is going to be in the area that might have been preventable, clearly, and the determination being is, are they preventable? Are these something that we're missing? Is there something that in our process that is faulty?

“And I can assure you that that has been a laser focus, and as I described it as the ‘CSI the Bronx.’ That has occurred, has been occurring, and if there are any changes, you’ll eventually be made aware of them. I’m not here to address any of that outside of acknowledging that that is a process that is ongoing. And between now and Spring Training if there is anything that gets changed or adjusted or new hires or anything of that nature, eventually, that would be revealed.”

Cashman first said the training staff was being reviewed in June -- "I certainly have asked those questions (why are there so many injuries) and we will continue to try to determine if anything is out of sorts," he told Dan Martin at the time -- and changes were inevitable after a season like that. You can't put that many players on the injured list -- I count 27 new soft tissue injuries among those 39 injured list stints, including five different players who were sidelined with calf strains -- and maintain the status quo. Was Krause the sole reason for all the injuries? Almost certainly not, but his job was literally preventing injuries, and a record number of injured list stints is the kinda thing that costs people their jobs. I assume the rehab staff in Tampa is being or has been reviewed, and changes could be coming there as well (we'll probably never hear about any changes to the rehab staff because stuff like that is rarely announced). I'm not naive enough to believe replacing Krause will solve the team's injury problems, but it is a start. Preventing, diagnosing, treating, and rehabbing injuries is an intricate process that involves many different people and the Yankees have to figure out why that process was so broken in 2019. You go into every season expecting some level of injuries, they are unavoidable to some degree, but last year was extreme, so much so that the Yankees could not reasonably stand pat. Change had to be made and a change has been made, and the change may not stop with Krause.

5. 2019 draft sleeper. In a recent article, Carlos Collazo (subs. req'd) identified right-hander Nelson Alvarez as a late round draft sleeper. The Yankees selected Alvarez in the 13th round this past June and Collazo ranks him as the sixth best late rounder in this summer's draft (sixth most interesting is probably more accurate than sixth best). Alvarez wasn't great at the University of South Florida this spring (4.08 ERA with 43/24 K/BB in 35 relief innings) and he struggled in pro ball after receiving a $125,000 bonus (8.59 ERA and 25/12 K/BB in 22 innings), but the scouting report is good (video):

The 6-foot-4, 220-pound righthander has a fastball that has touched 100 mph and can sit in the mid-90s with carrying life that generates plenty of whiffs up in the zone. He’s got a solid slider that should pair well with the fastball and make him an intriguing reliever to follow. 

The Yankees have a knack for identifying and developing unheralded college relievers into legitimate big league prospects -- Brooks Kriske is the latest example, though this group also includes Cody Carroll, Phil Diehl, Joe Harvey, and others -- and Alvarez could be the next such prospect. He's got the big fastball and it sounds like it has good spin, and the slider is promising too. That's a pro reliever starter kit. Alvarez has to figure out control and that's not easy -- between college and pro ball, he walked 36 batters in 57 innings in 2019 -- but he was a 13th round pick. You're going to get a flawed player at that point in the draft. The Yankees have mostly cashed those late round bullpen arms in as trade chips -- Carroll was part of the Zack Britton trade, Diehl went to the Rockies in the Mike Tauchman deal, Matt Wotherspoon somehow fetched a seven-figure sum of international bonus money, so on and so forth -- and hey, that's great. The expected return of a double-digit round draft pick is zero. Get a trade chip from one and you're doing alright. The Yankees are pretty good at unearthing bullpen prospects and maybe Alvarez is next in line. If nothing else, the club's 13th round draft pick is getting some helium six months after the draft, and that's pretty cool.

6. 2020 draft prospects. MLB.com recently released their first top 100 prospects list for the 2020 draft. The high school and college seasons are weeks away from starting, so that list can and will change (a lot) between now and the draft next June, but it's never too early to draft prospect watch, right? Right. As always, MLB.com's stuff is free. Scouting reports, scouting grades, video, the works. It's a great resource. Anyway, when looking for potential Yankees targets in recent years, I always focused on Southern California players because scouting director Damon Oppenheimer has had a knack for drafting players from his home turf. It has been three years since Oppenheimer last took a SoCal kid in the first round though (Blake Rutherford in 2016), and lately the common thread among the team's first rounders is makeup. Anthony Volpe was billed as a good tools/great makeup guy this summer. Same with Anthony Seigler last year. Clarke Schmidt had Tommy John surgery before the draft and the Yankees admitted they were comfortable taking him because (wait for it) they believed in his makeup and expected him to attack his rehab. Even Rutherford was a plus makeup guy, though he was also a projected top 10 pick, so the makeup aspect was easy to overlook. James Kaprielian in 2015? Great makeup guy. This is something that goes back to Cito Culver and Dante Bichette Jr., though the Yankees haven't gone that far off the board with their first rounder in a while now. The Yankees hold the 28th overall pick next year and, digging through MLB.com's top 100 list, one player immediately stood out as a potential target given their recent draft tendencies: Arizona State 3B Gage Workman. He is ranked as the No. 32 prospect in the draft. Here's a snippet of the scouting report (video):

The 6-foot-4 switch-hitter is big, strong and athletic. He's better from the left side of the plate, both in terms of his approach at the plate and tapping into his excellent raw power. Overall, he's power over hit and needs to cut down on his strikeouts, work more counts and take more walks to become a more well-rounded offensive player. He's a solid-to-average runner, maybe a tick better underway, and he moves better than you'd think ... He has the hands and arm strength to (play shortstop), but with his frame, third base seems a more likely long-term home. 

Because he graduated earlier than expected, Workman will be just 20 years old come Draft time, something that should work in his favor. So should his plus makeup, which will allow him to maximize his tools at the next level.

Sounds very Yankees-like to me: physically huge switch-hitter with power, athletic with at least a chance to stick at short, and great makeup. Also, he performed well in the Cape Cod League this past summer and the Yankees value success on the Cape, a wood bat league featuring the best college players in the country. Workman graduated high school early and hit .330/.413/.528 with eight home runs in 57 games this past spring. It was technically his sophomore season, but he was freshman age, and those are impressive numbers in a tough conference. The 26.8% strikeout rate is extremely high for a potential first round draft pick -- the scouting report does say Workman is "power over hit and needs to cut down on his strikeouts," after all -- but the Yankees have not shied away from college hitters with swing and miss concerns (see: Judge, Aaron) and they have overhauled their player development system. Maybe they believe hitting coordinator Dillon Lawson and his staff can help Workman get the bat on the ball consistently. I dunno. I just took a pass through MLB.com's initial draft prospect rankings and saw a switch-hitting infielder with power, great makeup, and good numbers given his age, and he stood out as someone the Yankees may target. I'll inevitably look at more (lots more) potential draft targets between now and the draft next June. For now, Workman stood out to me as I started to familiarize myself with the draft class.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. Jon Heyman says the Yankees remain interested in Brewers closer Josh Hader. Here's what I wrote about that a few weeks ago. Not really sure what to make of this. The Yankees can't fit Hader under the $248M third luxury tax tier even with a full J.A. Happ salary dump, and it's going to require a significant prospect package to get four years of a reliever that good. Why not keep the prospects and re-sign Dellin Betances? It's not like the Yankees desperately need a reliever. They have the depth to roll the dice on post-injury Dellin. Whatever ... the Astros gave Martin Maldonado two years and $7M, according to Mark Feinsand. Apparently he turned down more money to go to Houston. Can't say I'd turn down money if I were a 33-year-old journeyman who's made $11M in my career to date, but to each his own. The Yankees were connected to Maldonado two weeks ago, mostly because he was Gerrit Cole's personal catcher down the stretch this year, but I thought that was overplayed. Cole had a 2.47 ERA with Maldonado and a 2.91 ERA with other catchers during his two years in Houston. He'll be fine. Two years and $7M is pricey for a backup, and if Maldonado truly turned down more money to go back to the Astros, I'm perfectly fine with the Yankees passing on him ... Buster Olney (subs. req'd) says there is "mutual interest" between the Yankees and Joe Panik regarding a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. Works for me. My expectations are low and I wouldn't give him a 40-man roster spot, but there's no harm or risk in a minor league contract. Bring him to camp, send him to Triple-A Scranton, and see what's what. There's no such thing as a bad non-roster invite ... MLB and the MLB Umpires Association have agreed to a new five-year labor deal. Here's the press release. Ben Walker and Ron Blum say the umpires agreed to cooperate and assist with an automated strike zone as part of the agreement, should it be implemented at some point. In exchange, the MLBUA received a significant bump in pay and improved benefits/pension, and they can retire earlier, according to Jon Heyman. Good for them. MLB was likely to ram an automated strike zone down everyone's throat whether we liked it or not. At least the umpires were able to leverage the inevitable into better working conditions. The MLBPA should take note.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)