December 10th, 2019: Cole, Gregorius, German, MLB

It's been a sneaky quiet two days at the Winter Meetings aside from the Stephen Strasburg deal. No trades yet and the only other Major League free agent signing is ... Joely Rodriguez? Joely Rodriguez. The Rangers gave the hard-throwing lefty reliever two years and $5.5M after he spent the last three years in Japan. Now that I've said all this out loud, expect the signings and trades to begin. Here are another round of thoughts.

1. Latest on Cole. According to Buster Olney, the Yankees have made Gerrit Cole a new contract offer that exceeds the seven-year, $245M contract Stephen Strasburg signed yesterday (and the Yankees reportedly offered Cole over the weekend). Olney doesn't have the numbers but I've heard rumblings of eight years and $292M ($36.5M per year). That passes the sniff test, if nothing else. "I don’t want to put a time frame on it but certainly there is a probability it could get done here (at the Winter Meetings)," Scott Boras told Bryan Hoch this afternoon. Supposedly it's down to the Angels, Dodgers, and Yankees, and to me, that means it's down to the Angels and Yankees. The Dodgers certainly have the money to sign Cole, but spending big on free agents is not the way president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman operates. The largest contract he's given out since taking over in 2012 is the five-year, $80M extension they gave Kenley Jansen three years ago. A.J. Pollock's four-year, $55M contract is the largest deal the Dodgers have given a free agent coming over from another team during the Friedman era. Going eight or nine years for a pitcher just isn't something I expect Los Angeles to do. Could be wrong, but history suggests Friedman will not go there. It feels like this will eventually turn into an Arte Moreno vs. Hal Steinbrenner staring contest and the first one to blink loses. It might be there already. At the numbers being floated around, this is not a decision that gets made at the general manager level. It'll come down to the owner that says enough is enough and stops upping the ante. Unless he really wants to go home, I don't see why Cole would pick the Angels over the Yankees, assuming the money is equal. The Yankees give him a much better chance to win both short and long-term, and their operation is more state of the art than whatever's going on in LAnaheim. Cole is said to be a very cerebral person who is interested in teams that can help him get better. That figures to favor the Yankees. Everything points to the Yankees having the advantage, but who knows? We''ll find out soon. I expect this to wrap up this week at the Winter Meetings. Brian Cashman & Co. will leave San Diego on Thursday either with Cole, or knowing they have to begin looking elsewhere for a pitcher. Resolution is coming soon.

2. Ten years for Cole? It is a near certainty Gerrit Cole will get eight years at this point, and a nine-year deal is possible. Is there a point where it makes sense to go all-in and offer 10 guaranteed years in exchange for a lower average annual value? Let's say Angels owner Arte Moreno pushes the bidding up to nine years and $36M per season, or $324M total. Would it make sense to go to 10 years and $330 million to get the deal done? The average annual value (and thus luxury tax hit) drops from $36M to $33M, which is not insignificant, and when you're already willing to go to nine years, what's one more? Little green aliens could arrive and enslave us all between now and then. In all seriousness, there will be two new Collective Bargaining Agreements during a potential 10-year contract, and presumably the luxury tax rules will change. Maybe that's a reason not to do a 10-year deal then? The luxury tax rules could change in two years and make a $36M annual salary not as big a burden. Cole and Scott Boras would not get to claim they set a new pitcher average annual value record with a 10-year deal worth $330M, but they would still smash the total guarantee record. Chances are this upcoming contract will be the final contract Cole signs in his career, so is there really a difference between nine years and 10 years to him? Do us a solid and lower the average annual value, and we'll make you the wealthiest pitcher in baseball history for a long time. No one with a chance to break that record is hitting free agency anytime soon. I dunno. Just spitballin' here. If you're willing to go to nine years to get it done -- and I am totally cool with doing that even though I know Year 9 will be ugly -- is adding a 10th year to lower the luxury tax burden that bad an idea? Now that I wrote it all out, yeah, it seems like a bad idea. Nevermind.

3. One year for Didi? Yesterday we heard Didi Gregorius is likely to get a multi-year contract worth $14M to $15M. Then, last night, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) reported Gregorius and his representatives are considering a one-year prove yourself contract, and, given the sources, I am inclined to believe Rosenthal's report. If Gregorius is truly open to a one-year contract, the Yankees need to be all over it. There is no good reason not to bring him back on a one-year deal (note: saving luxury tax payroll space for other players is not a good reason). If he puts up another .276 OBP, so be it. You still get the defense and the dingers, and you can walk away after the season. Sir Didi is a great rebound candidate as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery and has a normal offseason, and the Yankees know he can handle everything about New York and fit into the clubhouse seamlessly. The extra depth would give the Yankees another left-handed bat and help protect against injuries, potential Gio Urshela regression, and even potential DJ LeMahieu regression, which is not something anyone is talking about but could happen. There is no such thing as too many good middle infielders. If this past season didn't show you the importance of quality depth, I don't know what will. Gregorius would get to rebuild his stock in a ballpark seemingly tailor-made for his strengths as a hitter, and with a team he knows and is comfortable with. Plus he'd get a chance to win. There would be no need to adjust to a new city, a new ballpark, new coaches, new teammates, etc. Because the Yankees declined to make Gregorius the $17.8M qualifying offer, it's reasonable to assume any one-year contract he signs would come in under that, so maybe $15M or so? Man, that feels way too good to pass up. The downside for Gregorius is that he could stink again next year and will have missed out on his best chance at a multi-year contract this offseason, or that the Yankees (or whichever team signs him) tenders the qualifying offer next winter and sabotages his free agent stock. My guess is Sir Didi's camp is still prioritizing a multi-year contract. Taking a one-year deal is a last resort more than anything, and if you have to settle for the last resort, wouldn't you want to do it with a franchise you know? I would, but I don't matter. Signing Gerrit Cole and bringing Gregorius and Dellin Betances back on one-year contracts is my dream offseason.

4. German's suspension. It has now been 32 days since Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin reported MLB's investigation into Domingo German's domestic violence incident has "entered its final stages," and there's still no word on his suspension. I'm not knocking their reporting. Rather, I'm noting MLB's investigation seems to be taking a long time. I have no idea whether that is actually the case though, so I looked up a few notable domestic violence suspensions. Here are the number of days that passed between the MLB's initial investigation announcement and the suspension announcement:

• Aroldis Chapman: 85 days
• Jose Reyes: 185 days
• Hector Olivera: 43 days
• Jeurys Familia: 148 days
• Steven Wright: 103 days
• Roberto Osuna: 45 days
• Addison Russell: 483 days (new allegations came to light in the of the investigation)
• Odubel Herrera: 8 days
• Julio Urias: 95 days

German is at 82 days and counting and, as you can see above, it's not uncommon for these investigations to last well over 100 days. We might still be weeks away from a resolution. I don't really care how long the investigation takes -- MLB should be as thorough as possible, obviously -- and I'm not sure it matters to the Yankees either. They know German will miss some length of time next season and my hunch is they will count on Jordan Montgomery as the fifth starter no matter how long German is out, with Mike King and possibly Jonathan Loaisiga as depth behind Montgomery. I don't see any scenario in which the Yankees spend $5M or so on a depth arm (or decline to salary dump J.A. Happ) because MLB gives German a 100-game suspension, or even a 162-game suspension. That fifth starter's spot is not a spot where the Yankees figure to spend money as presently constructed. This is the current rotation depth chart:

1. Luis Severino
2. James Paxton
3. Masahiro Tanaka
4. J.A. Happ
5. Jordan Montgomery
6. Mike King
7. Jonathan Loaisiga

Ideally the Yankees unload Happ -- Joel Sherman reports the Yankees are actively trying to trade Happ, so it's no longer speculation -- and replace him with Gerrit Cole. The nightmare scenario is Cole signing elsewhere, and, if that happens, the Yankees will have to pivot to another starter. Could be Madison Bumgarner, could be Hyun-Jin Ryu, could be Robbie Ray. I dunno. Point is, I fully expect Montgomery to be the fifth starter on Opening Day no matter how long German is suspended. I'm sure the Yankees would like clarification about German's status sooner rather than later. No matter how long the suspension, I don't think it'll have any effect on the team's offseason planning. They have a good and cheap fifth starter option in Montgomery and I expect him to get that last rotation spot. 

5. Rapid fire thoughts. At long last, the MLB: The Show video game franchise is expanding to other consoles. MLB, MLBPA, and Sony announced a new multi-year deal to continue producing the game, and as part of the agreement, the game will come to "additional console platforms beyond PlayStation platforms as early as 2021." No details have been announced but there are indications The Show will come to Xbox and Nintendo Switch. I guess the commissioner's office and the union finally realized limiting your sport's only game to a single console is no way to build an audience. I assume MLB and the MLBPA told Sony to make the game available on other consoles or you're not getting the exclusive license again, and EA Sports will put you six feet under when they revive the MVP Baseball franchise. Exclusive licenses are ruining sports games -- The Show, Madden, and EA's NHL franchise have all stagnated in recent years because there's no competition to force improvements and innovation -- but they're not going away anytime soon. At least now more people will have access to MLB's only video game, and the sport can attract more fans  ... MLB is finally moving the draft. Kendall Rogers reports the 2020 draft will be held in Omaha, home of the College World Series, rather than at the MLB Network studios in Secaucus. Also, the draft will now take place in the days leading up to the College World Series rather than right smack in the middle of the Division I postseason. Smart move all around. So many top prospects have to skip the draft broadcast each year because they're playing in the College World Series. Now they can take part in the event and their teammates and coaches can be there to support them, and I'm sure many top high school prospects would love to go to Omaha to soak up the College World Series experience. Maybe there will even be a live audience. The draft is not good television and it'll never be as popular as the NFL and NBA drafts because these kids spend years in the minors before reaching the show, but at least now players will get a better draft experience and the fans who do watch the broadcast will get to see more of them ... according to Ken Rosenthal, MLB will stop testing minor leaguers for marijuana as part of the upcoming revised drug agreement. Non-40-man roster players are testing for marijuana and they get 25-game suspensions for the first positive test, 50 games for the second, 100 games for the third, and a lifetime ban (!) for the fourth. There's no need for that. Never was. Come on. It's a recreational drug, not a performance-enhancer. Who cares? The MLBPA doesn't do a whole lot for non-40-man roster players (i.e. non-union members) but they took care of them here. Between this, The Show expanding to other consoles, and the draft moving to Omaha, MLB is doing some good and sensible things this offseason. Weird.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)