December 9th, 2019: Cole, Gardner, Gregorius, Betances, Bullpen, Gausman, Voit, Maybin, Rule 5 Draft, Sabathia

(UPDATE: I never received the email for this post when it went live, so I'm sending an update just to make sure the email goes out.)

I gotta say, this offseason is much more fun than the last two. It is (way) too early to say the market has corrected and the labor climate is better, but at least there are things happening now. This is better than wondering when everyone will sign. Anyway, let's get to my latest thoughts. No sense in holding this until Tuesday morning given everything happening at the Winter Meetings.

1. Cole or bust. Plan B is off the board. The Nationals and Stephen Strasburg agreed to a seven-year contract worth $245M on Monday. As is often the case with big Nationals contracts, the deal includes heavy deferrals ($80M per Bob Nightengale), but that is a new record total guarantee and average annual value ($35M) for a pitcher, breaking David Price's ($217M) and Zack Greinke's ($34.42M) records. Also, seven years and $245M is exactly what the Yankees reportedly offered Gerrit Cole over the weekend. I have some thoughts on this. One, forget about eight years, Cole might get nine at this point. Nine years takes him through his age 37 season, the same season covered by the final year of Strasburg's new deal (and the final year of Greinke's deal). I'm sure there will be an opt-out at some point, but yeah, eight years is a virtual lock and nine years is on the table, and that means $300M is possible. A few weeks ago I said I did not believe he'd get $280M -- I said he'd break Price's record but not shatter it -- so I'm an idiot. As good as Strasburg is, Cole is better, and he's also 26 months younger -- I recently said Cole is 18 months younger than Strasburg but I screwed up the math, he's 26 months younger -- with a much cleaner injury history. Thanks to the Strasburg deal, Cole is in position to land eight years and $36M per year, or $288M total, and possibly even more than that. Would a team really let that last $12M be a dealbreaker? Two, it's Cole or bust now. That's true for the Yankees, the Angels, the Dodgers, and any other team that wants to sign an ace this winter. Strasburg was the only viable alternative to Cole as a true frontline starter, and he's off the board. The top five free agent starters still on the market:

1. Gerrit Cole
(huge gap)
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu
(moderate gap)
4. Dallas Keuchel
(big gap)
5. Tanner Roark

Bumgarner and Ryu are quality pitchers. Clearly though, Cole is a cut above. The Yankees are reportedly prioritizing Cole, but they did check in with Strasburg as a fallback plan, and now that fallback plan is no longer an option. Cole or bust, and that's why he's going to get that eighth (or ninth) year and maybe $300M. Funny how quickly the eighth year went from "argh if that's what it takes, fine" to "there's no way this happens without it," isn't it? Three, I think Cole is probably going to sign this week. I thought that as soon as the Strasburg news broke and, sure enough, both Jon Morosi and Joel Sherman reported Cole is likely to wrap up a deal during the Winter Meetings a few minutes later. There's no reason for Cole and Scott Boras to wait around with Strasburg signed. There's no competition at the top of the market and the Angels and Yankees (and others) are only going to show that much more urgency to get a deal done. Boras tends to drag things out with his top clients, always has, but, in this case, I don't see a need to do that. The appropriate level of desperation has set in and I don't think waiting until January will equal a few more bucks. The best offers are coming soon.

2. Gardner, Gregorius, Betances rumors. Let's move on to updates about guys other than Gerrit Cole. Jon Heyman and Ken Davidoff report the Yankees made Brett Gardner a new contract offer this past Friday, though Heyman also says other teams are interested in Gardner on a multi-year deal. That is about as obvious as a "we're planting this story to create leverage" story gets. Even at age 36, I don't think it's unreasonable for Gardner's camp to push for two guaranteed years -- I mean, the guy hit 28 homers and was a +4 WAR player this past season, and if you can't ask for multiple years after that, when can you? -- and I also don't think it's unreasonable for the Yankees to stand their ground at one year. It's no secret Gardner wants to finish his career in New York, he's said it enough times, and the Yankees will use that to their advantage during contract talks. A reunion is inevitable, I think. For now, the two sides are still haggling. As for Dellin Betances, Jack Curry says he is "likely" to sign a one-year contract to rebuild his value next year, which makes sense. I suppose a team could come forward with a multi-year offer, but, after all the injuries this past season, a one-year deal is more likely. Curry says the Yankees are involved and to keep an eye on the Rays -- if the Yankees let Betances sign a one-year deal with Tampa Bay, I will be Mad Online -- and I wouldn't rule out the Mets either. Dellin would get to stay close to home and play for Carlos Beltran, who he was close with when the two were teammates. Heyman says Didi Gregorius is likely looking at $14M to $15M per year, and that Joe Girardi's Phillies remain in the mix. I don't think the Yankees would go there to retain Sir Didi and I think that would be a mistake. Three years at $15M annually has a chance to look real good in short order. In terms of likelihood to return, I'd rank the Yankees' free agents:

1. Brett Gardner
(enormous gap)
2. Dellin Betances
(big gap)
3. Austin Romine
4. Didi Gregorius

There hasn't been much chatter about Romine this offseason but that's not surprising. He is the type of free agent who just signs one day, you know? We're not going to get regular updates on his suitors and contract talks. Gardner is a near certainty to return. With Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu penciled in on the middle infield, I don't think a Gregorius reunion is likely at all. Bummer.

3. Relievers at the deadline. A few weeks ago we learned the Yankees had a deal in place to acquire Ken Giles at the trade deadline, but they backed out because they didn't like his medicals. Giles battled a nagging elbow problem pretty much all season. The Yankees also pursued Brad Hand prior to the deadline, though as far as we know talks never progressed much, at least not as far as the Giles talks. I've been thinking about the Giles and Hand pursuits recently because neither was a rental. Giles would've remained under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next season ($8.4M projected salary) and Hand's contract includes club options for 2020 ($7M) and 2021 ($10M). Those are relatively significant investments and not only were the Yankees prepared to take them on, they were willing to give up prospects to acquire them. I think that's telling, though I admit it is entirely possible I am reading way too much into things during all this offseason downtime. The Yankees could've flipped Giles/Hand this offseason to get the payroll straight, or flipped another reliever like Adam Ottavino, or maybe they would've drawn a line in the sand with Aroldis Chapman and his opt-out. I choose to believe the Yankees planned to keep everyone together and treat Giles/Hand as a Dellin Betances replacement in 2020. Betances made $7.125M this past season and Giles/Hand would've fit into that salary slot nicely next year, so to speak. In that case, do the Yankees have another $7M or so earmarked for bullpen help this winter? If so, that could lead them to a reunion with post-injury Betances, or a one-year flier on Blake Treinen, or a trade for someone like Jose Urena ($4M projected salary). Joel Sherman says the Yankees tried hard to acquire Mychal Givens ($3.2M projected salary) at the deadline as well, so maybe they go after him. Or heck, maybe they go after Giles or Hand again. Like I said, I might be (probably am) reading too much into this, but I don't think it's a coincidence the Yankees were pursuing quality controllable relievers at the trade deadline. They were probably doing it to a) improve the 2019 Yankees and, b) protect against Chapman's opt-out, but hey, maybe it means re-signing or replacing Betances is an important item on the agenda this winter. That'd be cool. No such thing as too many good relievers.

4. Gausman as a reliever. To continue the bullpen theme, former Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman strikes me as an interesting bullpen candidate. He was terrible as a starter with the Braves this past season, then shifted to the bullpen with the Reds after being claimed on waivers in August, and he was much better in relief. (The Reds non-tendered him because his projected salary was north of $10M.) The small sample size numbers:

Gausman has always thrown extremely hard -- even as a starter this year his fastball sat in the mid-90s and touched 98 mph -- but he never did figure out a reliable breaking ball, so he is effectively a fastball/splitter pitcher. That hasn't worked as a starter but it could work in the bullpen, similar to Tommy Kahnle's fastball/changeup combination. Gausman will turn 29 in January and we have almost 1,000 big league innings telling us he is a mediocre starter, if that. The tools suggest he might be an effective short reliever though, and, at this point, a full-time move to the bullpen may be his only way to stay in the big leagues. In this bullpen crazed era, there's no shame in taking on a relief role. Drew Pomeranz turned 26.1 innings with the Brewers into a four-year contract. I'm not saying the Yankees should give Gausman a big contract based on those 20.1 innings, just that Pomeranz's contract could help sway Gausman's decision. You could either plug along on one-year prove yourself contracts as a starting pitcher (i.e. become a journeyman) or join us for a season, carve out a niche in the bullpen, and be rewarded with a nice multi-year contract next offseason. I can understand why Gausman may want to continue starting, but hey, it's worth touching base. The bullpen market is pretty thin right now -- Gausman leads all available free agent relievers with +1.4 WAR projected, though that's because the system has him making some starts -- and as far as replacing Dellin Betances, trying Gausman as a conversion candidate doesn't seem like the worst idea. The Yankees wouldn't have to rely on him to soak up high-leverage innings right away and he could ease into things before assuming more responsibility. Could be a win-win. (I thought about Jimmy Nelson as a bullpen candidate as well. I think he's going to push for a rotation spot though now that he's two full years away from shoulder surgery.)

5. Losing Voit. Looking back on it, I don't think I appreciated just how big a loss Luke Voit was in the second half this year. He suffered the sports hernia during the London Series in late June and was never the same after that. The quick before and after numbers:

"After that thing in London, I was fighting through it, and you know it’s one of those things where (the trainers) told me, ‘just rehab and everything’s gonna get better,’ and I just couldn’t get over that hump. I wasn’t the most truthful in telling them that, you know, everything was hurting down there," Voit said during a recent YES Network interview (video link). It can be easy to overlook a player or forget how good he is when he slumps to end the season or you haven't seen him play for a while due to injury (see: Andujar, Miguel), but Voit has been a significant contributor for the Yankees. Even including those 161 herniated plate appearances to close out this season, the guy is a .280/.384/.517 (141 wRC+) hitter with 35 homers in 658 plate appearances in pinstripes. That's roughly a full season's worth of near MVP caliber production. The Yankees did not need the good version of Voit in the second half to win the AL East, but he might've come in handy in October, when Edwin Encarnacion vanished in the ALCS and the Yankees in general had trouble coming up with The Big Hit. Maybe a healthy and productive Voit doesn't change anything in October. Probably doesn't. But I think I underrated just how big a loss he was in the second half, likely because the Yankees kept winning without him. That's my mistake. Voit's a really good hitter and I feel kinda dumb for overlooking how important he is to the offense. He may not be the headliner in this lineup, but he is more than a complementary player. I look forward to a non-herniated Voit next season.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Brian Cashman recently indicated re-signing Cameron Maybin is a center field option -- "Because of (Aaron) Hicks‘ injury, the outfield is something of (a priority) for us. That’s where (Brett Gardner) could play a role, clearly. Cameron Maybin could play a role," he told George King over the weekend -- but I don't buy that. Maybin started only two games in center field this past season, both in September after Mike Tauchman hurt his calf, so he was at best Plan D in center field behind Hicks, Gardner, and Tauchman. Maybin turns 33 in April and he hasn't been a full-time center fielder in a few years now, and, unlike Gardner, I'm not sure he has the tools to play center full-time at this point in his career. He's not the best route runner. I think Cashman mentioned Maybin only as a way to put some pressure on Gardner's camp. I don't think there's much more to it ... I was planning to do a mini Rule 5 Draft preview but it's not even worth it. The Yankees don't have an open 40-man roster spot and I can't see them opening one between now and Thursday morning, so I don't expect them to make a pick. Righties Rony Garcia and Alex Vizcaino and lefty Trevor Lane are the notable prospects the Yankees have left exposed. I could see a rebuilding team rolling the dice on Vizcaino, who broke out this past season, though I don't think he'd stick. J.J. Cooper (subs. req'd) did not have a single Yankee on his comprehensive Rule 5 Draft preview, so yeah. They're not in danger of losing anyone notable ... in case anyone is wondering, the Yankees would surrender their second and fifth round 2020 draft picks, as well as $1M in international bonus pool space for the 2020-21 signing period, if they sign a qualified free agent (i.e. Gerrit Cole). Right now those are the 64th and 162nd overall picks, though they will move a little depending what happens with other qualified free agents. Last year the 64th and 162nd picks came with $1.37M in slot money. It's a real cost, but it's not nearly significant enough to stand in the way of signing a player like Cole ... during the most recent R2C2 podcast, CC Sabathia said he had surgery to repair his shoulder -- he said the doctor told him he'll be golfing by April -- and he wanted to be part of the meeting with Cole last week, but his arm is in a harness and he literally can not dress himself right now, so he stayed behind. Kinda cool to hear Sabathia is already willing to help the Yankees recruit players. "He's already dipping his toe in the water of, like, what role he wants to get involved with in the organization. So I'm  looking forward to see what the next thing is for CC as far as impact on the club," Aaron Boone said during a recent radio interview ... ESPN announced the 2020 Sunday Night Baseball schedule Monday and the Yankees are on the docket for five games (schedule announced through mid-August):

• May 10th vs. Red Sox
• May 17th at Astros
• June 14th at Red Sox
• June 28th vs. Cubs
• July 19th at Cardinals

Three games in six weeks, four games in eight weeks, and five games in 11 weeks is rough. I am not a fan of the late Sunday games at all, but it is what it is. The Yankees are still MLB's marquee franchise and they're going to get a lot of national television love. So it goes.

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