Quick thoughts after the Yankees make Gerrit Cole a contract offer, maybe

Sunday brought us significant hot stove news even though the Winter Meetings don't begin in earnest until Monday. According to Bob Klapisch, the Yankees have offered Gerrit Cole a seven-year contract worth $245M. Mark Feinsand, Jon Heyman, and Bob Nightengale all say the offer has not officially been made, however. Rather than wait until Tuesday, here are my quick thoughts on the Cole offer/non-offer now.

1. Offer or no offer? The conflicting reports are almost certainly a matter of semantics. The Yankees may not have made Cole an official offer as in they did not put a piece of paper in front of him to sign, but they probably communicated to him that this is where they are willing to go. It's an offer without actually making an offer, you know? Over the weekend Jeff Passan (and others) reported teams will begin presenting Cole and Scott Boras with their initial offers in the coming days and Klapisch's report fits the timeline. I wouldn't get hung up on the make an offer/not make an offer semantics. I'm sure the Yankees have let Cole know this is what's on the table. Did they ask him to put pen to paper? Nah, probably not. It's still a little too early for that.

2. In the ballpark. The reported contract offer would set new total guarantee and average annual value records for a pitcher. David Price holds the former at $217M and Zack Greinke the latter at $34.42M. The Cole offer is $245M total and $35M per year and it is pretty much exactly where I expected the bidding to start. In fact, I put together a Winter Meetings bold predictions post at CBS that had the Yankees offering Cole ... seven years and $245M. Right on the nose. Go me. The reported offer is neither shockingly high nor laughably low. Part of me expected to hear about first offers in the seven-year, $220M range, barely breaking Price's record, but there's no sense in wasting everyone's time with that. Cole's getting a record contract from some team this winter. Might as well start the bidding there. The offer passes the sniff test. Determining that is an underrated step in the hot stove process.

3. Sabathia approach. A few days ago it was reported the Yankees have made signing Cole "their clear offseason priority and (they) have ownership-level approval to offer him a record-setting deal," and I said that sounds like the Yankees reminding other interested teams that they are the Yankees, and they have the most money. Now there's a report that they've made that record contract offer, and Jon Heyman says their "total focus" is on Cole. The Yankees don't leak numbers. They tend to keep things very close to the vest -- it's impressive, really, that they are able to keep things so quiet in this media market -- yet here is this report, that a record contract is on the table. The Yankees have preemptively taken control of the race by telling interested teams that, unless you're willing and able to break records, don't bother. Everyone knows what a competitive offer is now. This is exactly what the Yankees did with CC Sabathia back in the day. The timetable is not the quite same -- the Sabathia offer came on the very first day of free agency, the Cole offer in early December -- but it's the same idea. We're the Yankees and we're prepared to make this guy the highest paid pitcher in baseball history, and now everyone knows it. They are not playing around.

4. An eighth year? That seven-year, $245M offer is a first offer, remember. That's where the negotiating will begin, which means a) the Yankees are presumably willing to go even higher, and b) it could be an eighth guaranteed year that seals the deal. That is scary -- giving any pitcher huge money for their age 36 season when there's so much time for things to go wrong between now and then is asking for trouble, no matter how good he is -- but that could be what it takes. The Angels are desperate and the Yankees are kinda desperate, so yeah, an eighth year is possible, especially when the first offer is seven years and $35M per year. When it comes to elite free agents, irrationality wins. The team that steps furthest outside their comfort zone will land Cole, and that could include an eighth guaranteed year. Given where the Yankees are right now -- their competitive window isn't getting any more open, so this is the time to do something irrational to try to get over the hump -- I am cool with an eighth year to seal the deal, even though I know I'll probably be cursing that eighth year in 2027. Maybe the eight-year offer comes with a lower annual salary -- trading an extra year for a lower annual salary is something we've seen the Yankees do a few times in recent years, at least in theory (Chase Headley, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino) -- but, even if it doesn't, the Yankees should just do it if that's what it takes.