November 22nd, 2019: Gardner, Gregorius, Betances, Mailbag

A wild free agent signing has appeared. The White Sox gave Yasmani Grandal a four-year contract worth $18M annually yesterday. Grandal reportedly discussed a four-year contract worth $60M with the Mets last offseason, instead took one year and $18.25M from the Brewers, and got an even bigger payday this winter. Grandal will make $91.25M from ages 30-34. The Yankees gave Brian McCann $85M for the same five-year chunk of his career. The one-year bet on himself paid off for Grandal. Good for him. Anyway, here is a smaller than usual post because I covered much of what I planned to cover today in yesterday's Rule 5 Draft protection deadline post, which I decided to post right away rather than wait until the regularly scheduled Friday post. I'll shut up now. On to today's thoughts.

1. Still no Gardner deal. I am surprised the Yankees have not yet re-signed Brett Gardner. It's going to happen at some point, we all know it and it makes sense for both sides, I just didn't expect it to take this long. Last year the Yankees re-signed Gardner on Oct. 31st, though there was the club option in play. That didn't set a hard deadline for a new Gardner deal, necessarily, but it did help move things along. That is not the case this year. The two sides can take as much time as they want. The guess here is Gardner's camp is pushing for a two-year contract -- I know he's 36, but if you can't ask for a two-year deal after setting new career highs in homers (28) and total offensive output (115 wRC+) while playing a solid center field, when can you? -- and the Yankees are holding firm at one year, or are maybe only willing to go to one year with an option. Also, the deal the Yankees gave Gardner last offseason proved to be an overpay relative to other free agent veteran outfielders. Here are last winter's notable one-year free agents contracts for outfielders:

• Brett Gardner: $7.5M
• Nick Markakis: $6M
• Jon Jay: $4M
• Avisail Garcia: $3.25M
• Adam Jones: $3M

Gardner was better than all those guys this past season and was well worth the $7.5M, but maybe the Yankees realized they could've cut a more favorable deal had they waited a little bit after seeing how the offseason played out, and they don't want to repeat that mistake this year. They know Gardner wants to play next season and eventually retire in pinstripes -- "I’ve always been open about wanting to play my whole career here. I hope I get the opportunity to do that," Gardner told Dan Martin last month -- which I'm sure they're trying to leverage in contract talks. Also, there's likely little concern he will one day suddenly sign elsewhere without warning. The Yankees are probably confident Gardner and his agent will give them a chance to match any contract offer should it get to the point where they are considering signing elsewhere. I have to think this will wrap up soon. The Yankees need a center fielder with Aaron Hicks having Tommy John surgery and Gardner is the best option in a thin market for free agent center fielders, plus they know he can handle New York and use the short porch to his advantage, and all that. The Yankees and Gardner will work out a new contract reasonably soon, I believe. I'm just surprised it hasn't happened already, three weeks into the offseason.

2. Bringing Didi back. I feel the Yankees should re-sign Didi Gregorius a little more strongly with each passing day. I want as much depth as possible at the hard-to-fill positions and Sir Didi is far and away the best true middle infielder on the free agent market. He'd provide a quality left-handed bat, something the Yankees sorely lack right now, as well as a very good glove. Also, Gregorius has passed every "can he handle New York?" test imaginable. He did not have a good season in 2019, I know that, but that will likely drag down his contract and that's more of a reason to sign him. He'll come at a relative discount now. For what it's worth, Steamer projects Gregorius as a top 25 middle infielder next season, and that's a guy worth keeping around given the contract projections:

• MLBTR: 3 years and $42M
• FanGraphs crowdsourcing: 3 years and $45M

Someone sent in a mailbag question asking about a potential Jake Arrieta/Zack Britton contract with Gregorius, meaning a player option with a multi-year club option, and that could work, though to date only Scott Boras has negotiated those contracts, and Gregorius is not a Boras client. Other agents may not be willing to do something like that yet. Either way, Gregorius was an All-Star caliber player in 2017 and 2018, then he had a little bump in the road in 2019 following Tommy John surgery, and now he'll have a normal and healthy offseason. I expect to see the 2017-18 version of Gregorius in 2020-21 (or something close to it), not the 2019 version, and the Yankees should be trying to maximize the next few years before the window with this core closes. That means again fielding a three-headed middle infield monster with Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, and DJ LeMahieu. It's not like the Yankees have a hot shot middle infield prospect coming. There's no one to block. Bring Gregorius back, put him at short and Gleyber at second, and move LeMahieu around the infield. With each passing day I feel it is more a necessity than a luxury. I am not optimistic the Yankees will bring Didi back -- every dollar they give him is a dollar they can't give Gerrit Cole or another high-end starter -- but it should happen. Gregorius is part of the solution.

3. Bullpen market. The Braves have struck early this offseason and signed Will Smith, the top free agent reliever, and former Yankee Chris Martin, who figured things out in Japan and had a very good 2019 season with the Rangers and Braves. Atlanta gave Smith three years and $39M and Martin two years and $14M. They identified the free agents they wanted and acted quickly. Here are the top available free agent relief pitchers according to FanGraphs' projected 2020 WAR (full-time relievers only, not swingmen):

1. RHP Dellin Betances: +0.8 WAR
2. LHP Jake Diekman: +0.8 WAR
3. RHP Will Harris: +0.7 WAR
4. LHP Drew Pomeranz: +0.6 WAR
5. RHP Craig Stammen: +0.4 WAR

The free agent reliever market wasn't great to start with and now two of the best available (Smith is projected for +0.8 WAR, Martin for +0.7 WAR) are off the board, only three weeks into the offseason. The supply dropped (two relievers off the board) but the demand did not drop a commensurate amount (one team signed both relievers). Because of that, I reckon Betances is starting to look much more appealing to contending teams that need bullpen help, even with the Achilles injury. He'll look even more appealing once Harris comes off the board (Diekman projects well but eh). The current state of the free agent reliever market could create a bidding war for Betances and push the offers up. He won't get a Smith deal because of the injuries -- Betances could've sought $13M a year with another typical Dellin season in 2019 -- but maybe now he does get two guaranteed years instead of three. Or hey, maybe he gets three guaranteed years instead of two. It could be the team that offers the third guaranteed year, even at a lower annual salary, gets him. The Braves quickly scooping up two top free agent relievers is good news for Betances and bad news for the Yankees if they hope to retain him. There are baseball reasons to walk away from Dellin (32 in March, missed close to a full season with a shoulder injury, control-challenged, etc.) but he is also arguably the best reliever on the market now. The Yankees have a stacked bullpen and don't necessarily need Betances. There's always room for another high-strikeout guy in the bullpen though -- as good as the bullpen was this past season, how many times did it seem like they needed one more high-leverage capable arm out there? -- and I think the odds of a reunion are lower now than they were two weeks ago, before Smith and Martin came off the board. Very few free agent relievers look like potential impact pieces. A healthy Betances can absolutely be a difference-maker and it's only a matter of time until some team steps forward and makes that aggressive offer. I hope it's the Yankees. I'm not holding my breath.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Rob asks (short version): How would you punish the Astros for their sign-stealing scheme If you were commissioner and assuming the organization/personnel named so far are all as guilty as they look right now?

I'm with Joel Sherman on this: MLB needs to come down hard on the Astros. Technology is not going away -- it will only be used more in baseball as time goes on -- and this is the time to establish harsh penalties for improper use of said technology. I'd rather overpenalize now and set the standard than give them a slap on the wrist and potentially invite more cheating.

Two things to keep in mind. One, in September 2017 commissioner Rob Manfred said "all 30 clubs have been notified that future violations of this type will be subject to more serious sanctions" when the Red Sox were fined for their Apple Watches, so a warning was issued, and video evidence suggests the Astros cheated after that warning.

And two, MLB sent teams a memo last spring defining improper use of technology and reminding them of the severity of the penalties. That's because the Astros were busted videotaping opposing dugouts last postseason. MLB also ramped up anti-cheating protocols by installing an official in each team's video room to monitor activity this year.

Clearly, using technology to steal signs is very much on MLB's radar, and it is naive to think the Astros limited their cheating to 2017 (Manfred told Jeff Passan yesterday that MLB's investigation will include 2018 and 2019, not just 2017). Set the standard now and come down hard. My proposed punishment:

• Maximum allowable fine (I think it's $2M but I could be wrong).
• Forfeit every pick in the top 10 rounds in the 2020 and 2021 drafts.
• Cap bonuses at $10,000 for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 international signing periods.
• One-year suspension for GM Jeff Luhnow.
• One-year suspension for manager A.J. Hinch.

There is precedent for doing most of this. The Cardinals had to forfeit several draft picks when they were found guilty during the hacking scandal a few years ago. The Braves were limited to $10,000 bonuses for a year after they got busted for skirting international signing rules two years ago. Same idea now, just ramp it up a notch.

As for the suspensions, MLB banned Braves GM John Coppolella for life after the Braves scandal -- he's currently selling real estate in Orlando -- and special assistant Gordon Blakeley received a one-year suspension. Also, Padres GM A.J. Preller was suspended for 30 days after it was found the team hid medical information from trade partners.

Isn't the Astros cheating worse than the Braves cheating? I think so. Coppolella was banned for giving some kids too much money. Meh. The Astros damaged the integrity of the game. They've brought into question the reliability of the results on the field, for a World Series champion no less. That is pretty damaging to the game's reputation.

Because of that, suspend Luhnow for a year. No involvement with the team for 12 months, which means he can't take part in 2020 planning or future planning, which hits the Astros pretty hard. His lieutenants have to run the show in the interim. Word is fellow GMs were upset Preller didn't miss much planning time. That wouldn't be the case with Luhnow.

As for Hinch, there has to be some discipline for the uniformed personnel, right? It would be awfully tough to punish the players unless there's hard evidence a player(s) was the ringleader, so punish the man tasked with overseeing them on a daily basis. Suspending a manager for a year is unprecedented, but so it this type of cheating.

There is no way Hinch looks good here. Either he knew about the cheating and allowed it to continue, or he didn't know about it and isn't on top of things. Either looks bad. MLB could appoint an interim manager they trust to prevent future cheating but also be a good faith manager who manages the team to win. Buck Showalter? Dusty Baker? Not sure.

Something like this happened a few years ago. When the Mets needed a new GM after the 2010 season, MLB pushed Sandy Alderson on them because the team was essentially not in good standing because of their financial issues, and the commissioner's office wanted someone they trusted to run the show. The Astros are in a similar situation now.

So that's my proposed punishment. The biggest fine possible, tank their amateur talent acquisition process the next two years, and long suspensions for the GM and manager. Too harsh? Maybe, but it has to hurt. This is MLB's chance to take a stand and show they will come down hard if you use technology to cheat. Do it now or the scandals will only get worse.

(Send questions for the weekly Friday mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)