Thoughts following ALCS Game 4

What a disappointing performance. In the biggest and most important game of the season, the Yankees had more errors (four) than runs (three), and they got pushed around at home by an Astros team that is leaving little doubt they are superior. Superior talent and superior execution. Ugly all the way around. Here are today's thoughts now that the Yankees are on the brink of another World Series-less season.

1. Farewell CC. CC Sabathia's career came to an end last night. I wasn't ready for it. He hurt his shoulder throwing a pitch in that eighth inning -- his final two fastballs were in the mid-80s and that's low even for late career Sabathia -- and was in anguish after throwing his test pitch and while walking off the field. "We've got to see more about it, but not good with the shoulder," Aaron Boone said. It's a huge bummer Sabathia's career ended like that. At the same time, I think it's very fitting he pitched until his body broke and that he left everything he had on the field. That dude is a all-time warrior and I think his only regret will be not going out with a championship (probably not going out with a championship, I guess I should say). Finishing his career hurt because he pitched until his body wouldn't take it strikes me as something that will be a-okay with him. He'll be upset he didn't help the team win, not that he's actually hurt. Sabathia is an all-time great Yankee and I look forward to seeing him in the dugout the next few days and at various events in the future. I'm sad his career ended like that, but I'm also happy I got to go along for the ride, and I feel fortunate to have seen him walk off the field for the final time in person. Sabathia is a one of a kind, through and through. "That's a warrior right there. That’s our leader, man. He gave it all that he had," Aaron Judge said following last night's game.

2. Offensive woes. Assuming the Yankees do not make a miraculous comeback to win the series, we can look back at their sudden inability to hit with men on base as the culprit. The Yankees led baseball in AVG (.294), SLG (.516), and wRC+ (129) with runners in scoring position during the regular season (they were fourth with a .371 OBP), and they also had the best offense with men on base in general (130 wRC+). In the last three games they are 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position and the one hit didn't even score a run. That was the Gleyber Torres single on the play DJ LeMahieu was thrown out at the plate in Game 2. Why they gave him a hit on a ball Jose Altuve booted, I don't know, but they did. Starting rallies has not been a problem. The inability to finish those rallies is why the Yankees are likely going home. This is not working:

• Edwin Encarnacion: 1 for 15
• Brett Gardner: 2 for 15
• Gary Sanchez: 2 for 17
• Didi Gregorius: 2 for 16
• Gio Urshela: 2 for 15

Encarnacion in particular has been dreadful. The other guys have at least done something at some point in this series. Urshela hit a homer in Game 1, Gregorius had a hit last night, Sanchez hit the homer, and Gardner worked the bases loaded walk. Encarnacion has mostly put together terrible at-bats and missed hittable pitches. I'm ready to see Giancarlo Stanton on one good leg at DH. At least he might take a walk or a muscle a pitch out with pure upper body strength. Want to know what's really bad? Here are the Yankees three hardest hit balls through four innings last night:

1. Aaron Judge: 99.5 mph (first inning fielder's choice)
2. Gary Sanchez: 97.5 mph (fourth inning ground out)
3. Didi Gregorius: 83.3 mph (second inning single)

The first inning rally was a gift built around three walks and a bloop single. The Yankees did not take advantage, Zack Greinke settled down, and that was that. DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and Gleyber Torres are a combined 17-for-51 (.333) with five extra-base hits in the ALCS. The rest of the Yankees are a combined 12-for-91 (.132) with four extra-base hits. When Aaron Hicks misses two months and comes back having the best at-bats on the team with zero rehab games, it's a problem. This offense is in the dumps right now save for the three big guys (and I guess Hicks). Personally, I can't get over the Yankees loading the bases three times in the span of 14 innings in Games 3-4 and coming away with one run (Gardner's walk). They had a great chance to put a crooked number on the board early against Gerrit Cole, and last night the Astros had the bullpen going behind Zack Greinke in the first inning. Folks, stranding the bases loaded that many times against the Astros is no way to go through life. It's no way to win an ALCS, I know that much. Throw in blowing a (admittedly small) lead in Game 2, and you have a recipe for a 3-1 series deficit. Unless the Yankees come back, this series loss will be squarely on the offense. It has vanished the last three games. "We're getting guys on base, but we're just missing that one big hit. That's the thing Houston was able to do tonight. They got their big hits when they had some traffic on the bases. We've just got to regroup and go back to playing our game. What got us here was being able to put the ball in play, move guys over, score guys when they're out there on the pond," Judge said.

3. Sloppy defense. Remember when the Yankees played arguably their best defensive game of the season in ALDS Game 3? That feels like a lifetime ago. They made four errors last night, all on routine-ish plays. DJ LeMahieu made two errors -- at least he has the built-in excuse of not having much experience at first base -- and Gleyber Torres made two errors in his worst game of the postseason (0-for-5 with two errors). It was the first time in history a team had four errors from their right side of the infield in a postseason game. That is not the history I was hoping the Yankees would make this October. Errors happen. I get it. Sometimes guys will boot a ball or miss a grounder. It happens. Last night though, with the way the game played out, it was incredibly disappointing to see the Yankees essentially fold like that. Their compete level was uninspiring. They looked like a defeated team. They really did. Doesn't mean they'll come out that way again tonight, but the Yankees were a dead team walking those last few innings. I can handle getting bounced in the ALCS. There are some really great teams out there. Going out with such sloppy play though? That bothers me. The Yankees should be better than this. "We played poorly tonight, there's no other way to explain it. And we need to flush this immediately because -- we talked about it as a team -- we need to get over this in a hurry and come put our best foot forward tomorrow," Aaron Boone said. 

4. Tanaka labors. You could see Masahiro Tanaka was not sharp right in the very first inning. He gave up some loud contact for outs -- George Springer started the game with a 107.8 mph liner that found a glove, for example -- and he had nothing to put Michael Brantley away after getting ahead in the count 1-2. That turned into an eight-pitch walk. The wheels finally came off in the third inning when Tanaka walked No. 8 hitter Robinson Chirinos on four pitches and left a pitch up to No. 9 hitter Josh Reddick for a single. The Springer home run came on a splitter that went side-to-side rather that down. That's what we saw whenever Tanaka struggled this year. The splitter would stay on the same plane rather than dive out of the zone. He threw 85 pitches in his five innings and recorded only five swings and misses. Part of that is the Astros being so good and making so much contact as a team, and part of it is Tanaka not being all that sharp. Last night was Tanaka's eighth career postseason start and it was the first time he allowed more than two runs. You're a postseason hero until you suddenly aren't (same with being a postseason choker). The Yankees had to win last night to have a shot in this series -- it's not over, I know, but things aren't looking good right now -- and the rainout allowed them to start their best pitcher down 2-1 in Game 4. The baseball gods did the Yankees a favor there, then Tanaka came out with less than his best stuff, and gave up the back-breaking three-run homer. It was a grind, and the Yankees offense is not good enough to overcome a start like that right now. "They squared him up a handful of times right at some guys ... Considering, I thought he battled well, and I thought they took some pretty good at-bats against him," Aaron Boone said.

5. Bullpen mismatch. So much for the bullpen being advantage Yankees, huh? Chad Green looks like he's running on fumes -- the home run fastball he threw to Carlos Correa has to be the worst pitch he's thrown in months -- and Adam Ottavino is completely unusable. He has appeared in all seven postseason games so far and six times he was brought in to face a very specific and very dangerous right-handed batter. Five of the six reached base (three walks, one homer, one double). The only two scenarios in which Ottavino should pitch the rest of this series are a) with a huge lead, and b) deep into extra innings when the Yankees have no other choice. Anyway, the bullpen advantage on paper has not played out on the field:

• Yankees bullpen: 8 runs and 19 baserunners in 19.1 innings
• Astros bullpen: 7 runs and 17 baserunners in 14 innings

The Astros have a really good bullpen. It's underrated, I feel, based on all the talk I've seen this postseason. The Astros have a good bullpen and it is matching up well with the vaunted relief crew the Yankees built. Ottavino is unplayable, Green looks gassed, and I feel like it's only a matter of time until Tommy Kahnle gets worn down too. He's thrown 4.1 innings across three appearances in the last five days. Using the same 4-5 pitchers every single game is not a viable postseason strategy. It's probably too late for the 2019 Yankees, but the 2020 Yankees have to get more length from their starters. That likely requires a change in personnel and a change in philosophy, but yeah. Getting five innings from the starter should not feel like a good day. Even if the Yankees manage to come back and beat the Astros, I have no idea how this bullpen is supposed to survive another series.

6. Sign-stealing. I am beyond tired of the sign-stealing talk. It is exhausting and it is taking away from what has been a pretty entertaining series, at least up until last night. I don't care to recap the sign-stealing stuff here, so go read this if you're that interested. I'm just tired of it. Yeah, the Astros are probably stealing signs. They got caught recording the opposing dugout last postseason, after all. The Yankees are probably stealing signs too, or they should be, anyway. If they are, they really need to get better at it. Every team is trying to steal signs, especially at home, where there are more built-in advantages. Some teams are better at it than others and some are more morally flexible about it too. I'm of the belief that if it stays between the lines with the players and coaches, cool, that's fair game. Once you start getting cameras and video personnel involved, that's over the line. I have no idea what the Astros -- or Yankees! -- are doing to steal signs and frankly I don't care. Deal with it and move on. The fact it is an incessant everyday conversation is exhausting. Same with the "the pitcher touched his hat he's using pine tar why isn't the other team saying anything!" crowd on social media. This stuff happens all the time and every team does it. I don't care to hear about it any longer. /rant

7. Rapid fire thoughts. Yeah, he made two errors last night, but DJ LeMahieu has been so good this postseason. Multiple hits in four of seven games and at least one hit in six of seven games (he went 0-for-5 in ALDS Game 3), and he's hitting .355/.429/.548 (161 wRC+) overall. Plus he's made some really nice scoops at first base despite those errors. I'm not sure Yankees fans were ever as collectively wrong about something as they were the LeMahieu signing ... Aaron Boone said last night the Yankees are likely to replace CC Sabathia on the roster. It has to be a pitcher-for-pitcher substitution and the Yankees have four guys staying ready in Tampa: Cory Gearrin, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery, and Stephen Tarpley. My money's on Tarpley in a left-for-lefty swap. I'd go with Heller. He threw the ball pretty well in September. Unless this pitcher can also hit, he's unlikely to matter in the ALCS ... previously, there have been 86 teams in MLB history to fall behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series. Thirteen came back to win the series, which, honestly, is more than I would have guessed. The most common outcome is the series ending in Game 5 (44 times), but I'm here to tell you the Yankees will win Game 5 tonight. For two reasons. One, I predicted the Yankees would beat Justin Verlander at some point and the series would go six games, and my predictions are always weirdly accurate. And two, it would be the most inconvenient outcome for me seeing how I don't have a flight or hotel for Game 6 (and possibly 7) in Houston. Expect a win tonight ... the Yankees have to win three straight games now but one game at a time. Find a way to beat Verlander tonight, win a bullpen game, and anything can happen in a Game 7 ... I'm not sure he's even physically capable of doing it at this point, but I'd love to see Sabathia throw out the first pitch tonight. Even if he has to do it underhanded from 20 feet away or something, it would be a hell of a thing.