Thoughts following ALCS Game 2

Folks, losing winnable Justin Verlander starts is no way to win an ALCS. The Yankees let a golden opportunity to take a 2-0 series lead slip away last night. The ALCS is now a best-of-five as it heads back to New York. Could be better -- should be better -- could be worse. Here are some scattered thoughts as I look forward to the savages returning to the Bronx.

1. Paxton struggles. What a terrible start for James Paxton. Granted, if you had told me Paxton would not complete three innings and Justin Verlander would pitch into the seventh, I'd assume the game was over early. Instead, it was winnable right to the very end. Anyway, Paxton threw a first pitch strike to only three of the dozen batters he faced, and six of the 12 saw at least five pitches in their at-bats. Paxton was behind everyone and, when you look at his pitch locations, it's easy to see why. He consistently missed below the zone with his breaking ball and the Astros had no reason to respect it:

I don't know if Paxton was tipping his pitches or if the Astros had his signs -- it was pointed out to me during the game that the runner on second may have been relaying pitches to the hitter by turning his head one way for fastball and the other way for breaking ball, though I don't know whether that's actually happening -- but it sure seemed like they knew what was coming at times. The fact it only happened with Paxton on the mound leads me to believe it was something he was doing, if anything. Paxton put six runners on base and recorded six outs, and it's a minor miracle he only allowed one run. Aaron Boone was smart to pull him when he did. He didn't wait for it spiral out of control like last year. In a way, I hope Paxton was tipping his pitches or that the Astros had his signs, because at least then we'd have an explanation rather than "that incredible second half run is over, sorry." Even with the bullpen rested and available yesterday, the Yankees needed Paxton to be better -- Boone said Paxton is the one guy the Yankees will let pitch deep into games this postseason and he's thrown seven innings in two starts -- to have a chance to eke out a win in a Verlander game. "He had to make a lot of pitches tonight. The command wasn’t where we wanted it to be. It happens. I look forward to the next time. Hopefully he does a better job the next  time," Gary Sanchez said about Paxton's start.

2. Bullpen machinations. I can't believe -- well, no, I totally believe -- some people are upset about Aaron Boone's bullpen management last night. His starter bowed out in the third inning and he managed to cobble together 7.2 innings of two-run ball (both solo homers) from eight relievers against a high-powered Astros offense in Minute Maid Park, and the problem is what, that Boone didn't get more from his bullpen on a night the offense a) had five singles and one home run, b) had only three at-bats with runners in scoring position, and c) never once had a runner reach third base in 11 innings? It's the bullpen's fault? Come on now. Let's use our brains a little here. The most controversial move seems to be Adam Ottavino replacing Chad Green in the fifth inning. Green replaced James Paxton with runners on second and third and one out in the third inning, and escaped the jam without allowing another run to score. He then added a 1-2-3 fourth inning and got the first out in the fifth inning. Green was awesome. He also warmed up in two separate innings behind Masahiro Tanaka in Game 1, had thrown 26 pitches already in Game 2, and had two ups-and-downs between innings. That's a big workload, and asking a fatigued Green to go through the top of the lineup was asking for trouble. Ottavino is the ace right-on-right matchup guy and he was brought in to face the portion of the lineup he is supposed to get. It's not Boone's fault Ottavino threw a first pitch cement mixer here ...

... to George Springer for the game-tying solo homer. Ottavino has faced 14 batters in the postseason and seven have reached base. He also allowed a run in five of his final seven regular season relief appearances. It's been a good month since Ottavino was that elite shutdown right-on-right guy. Maybe he's hitting a wall after being used so much from April through August, or maybe it's just a rut. Whatever it is, the Yankees might have to rethink his role going forward. He hasn't been too reliable lately. I labeled Ottavino my x-factor for the Yankees this series and he sure put his mark on Game 2 last night. Overall though, my gosh, the bullpen gave the Yankees every chance to win Game 2 after Paxton was unable to get through the third. They went above and beyond under those circumstances. "You're playing it to win the game. You're not playing it to -- what if we go 13, you know? You're playing it to what gives us the best chance to win here. And the bottom line is we end up giving up a third run in the 11th inning. I'd say from a run prevention standpoint it went pretty well," Boone said after the game.

3. The LeMahieu play. I'm torn. On one hand, DJ LeMahieu trying to score from second on Brett Gardner's hard-hit ground ball that Jose Altuve booted in the sixth inning was dumb because he got thrown out by a mile. On the other hand, I'm okay with the aggressiveness there because it's a tie game and so much could've gone wrong on that play. The throw could've been off-line or the catcher could have not received it cleanly. I mean, what's more likely, the slumping Gary Sanchez gets a two-out hit (or walk or wild pitch or whatever) against Justin Verlander to score the run, or the play goes imperfectly? Consider where Carlos Correa was relative to the ball when LeMahieu got to third base (screen grab via David Mendelsohn):

"I was running, had my back turned towards it. I kind of peeked to see where the ball was and I saw Correa had it already. Like everyone was saying, I think it's the right call and a heck of a play," LeMahieu said. In hindsight, it was dumb to go home because he wound up being out by a mile. As the play unfolded in real time, I think it's easy to understand why the Yankees pushed the envelope there, and forced the Astros to make the perfect play. Credit to them. They executed an unconventional play you can't really practice  -- a play where so much can go wrong -- and they did it perfectly. Bummer it didn't work out, but I get it. "I thought it skipped off further, and it was an absolute send from where I was standing. I'm right behind third base there. Great heads up play by Correa, to be in that position, to catch it clean, and then obviously with his arm to throw a strike home. So I had no issue with the play at all," Aaron Boone said.

4. Stanton's injury. Once again, the Yankees have lost a player to a soft tissue injury. Last month I noted 27 of the team's 38 injured list stints were due to soft tissue injuries, which is far too many. The training staff must be heavily scrutinized over the winter, though that's a topic for another time. The important thing now is that Giancarlo Stanton is day-to-day with a quad strain. He suffered the injury running out his infield single in Game 1 -- apparently he didn't alert the team until after the game, so he stayed in, and he played well too -- and an MRI revealed a strain. "Hoping that it's something that with today and the off-day (Monday), that he would be back in play for Game 3. We'll just kind of see how these next 48 hours unfold," Aaron Boone said. The Yankees can replace Stanton due to injury on the ALCS roster, but, by rule, he would be ineligible for the next round. That's not happening. The Yankees are going to nurse this thing as long as possible before taking Stanton out of play for the World Series. They have to be absolutely sure he is done before making that move. With any luck, Stanton will be able to return sometime this week at Yankee Stadium. Would be cool. He's had really good at-bats this postseason and the offense needs him. It would be unfortunate if Stanton couldn't play left field when he returns -- that would presumably mean Stanton at DH, Edwin Encarnacion at first base, DJ LeMahieu at third base, and Gio Urshela on the bench, though you could argue Encarnacion belongs on the bench right now (more on that in a second) -- but that's something we can worry about when the time comes. I've learned my lesson this year. The Yankees will figure it out where everyone fits when everyone is ready to play. Mostly though, I'm just annoyed the Yankees have yet another soft tissue injury -- I mean seriously, it's like one a week this season -- and that Stanton's postseason status is now up in the air. He's an important part of the offense and a productive player. Losing him for one postseason game is already one too many.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Edwin Encarnacion and Gary Sanchez are a combined 6-for-40 (.150) in the postseason, and that's after Encarnacion had four hits in his first nine plate appearances against the Twins. He stopped hitting in the middle of ALDS Game 3 (0-for-14 since). With Giancarlo Stanton now injured, the Yankees need Encarnacion and Sanchez to snap out of their funks pretty much immediately to have a chance to beat the Astros ... Aaron Boone said he started Cameron Maybin over Aaron Hicks last night because Justin Verlander is "a tough first game back draw," which I get, except the Astros are going to throw a really good pitcher at the Yankees every night. There's no soft landing spot to give Hicks his first start, you know? Expecting Maybin to hit tough power righties is a lot to ask. I think I'd roll with the more talented player in Hicks and hope for the best ... wow do the Yankees miss Dellin Betances. It's not just that Adam Ottavino is turning into a pumpkin, it's that the bullpen is being worked really hard in the postseason. They could really use another high-end arm to help spread the workload around ... if you haven't heard, it's supposed to rain in New York all day Wednesday, meaning it's likely Game 4 will be postponed and the two teams will lose the off-day between Games 5 and 6. That means a few things. One, there will be off-days on both sides of Game 3, so the Yankees can really lean on their relievers Tuesday. Two, the Yankees could start Masahiro Tanaka on normal rest in Game 4 and push their fourth starter back a day or two. And three, Games 4-7 would be played on four consecutive days. That is potentially very bad news for the bullpen ... the Yankees now face the very daunting task of having to beat Gerrit Cole to avoid falling down 1-2 in the series. That game is close to a must-win. Losing Game 3 means the best case scenario is going back to Houston and having to beat Verlander in Game 6 or Cole in Game 7 to advance to the World Series. I want no part of that. My hope is the Yankees close out this series in five games (still could!) to avoid facing Verlander and Cole a second time. Last night's loss makes that much less likely. Blah. That game was there for the taking last night and the Yankees just wouldn't take it.