Thoughts prior to the 2019 ALCS

We are getting the heavyweight battle. Gerrit Cole and the Astros sent the Rays home last night in ALDS Game 5. Too bad the Yankees couldn't be the team that eliminated Tampa. Ah well. Anyway, you all ready for this Yankees vs. Astros ALCS deathmatch? Gonna be fun. And also stressful, but mostly fun. I think. Here are some thoughts as I get ready to watch the Breaking Bad movie on my flight to Houston.

1. The ALCS rematch. Okay, it's not truly a rematch because they didn't meet in the ALCS last year, but you know what I mean. The Yankees and Astros met in the ALCS two years ago and they'll meet again in the ALCS this year. The 2019 Yankees and Astros are much better than the 2017 Yankees and Astros too. Check it out:

2017 Astros: 101-61 and +196 run differential
2019 Astros: 107-55 and +280 run differential 

2017 Yankees: 91-71 and +198 run differential
2019 Yankees: 103-59 and +204 run differential

This is only the third time the Yankees will play a team that won 107+ regular season games in the postseason. They beat the 116-win Mariners in the 2001 ALCS and lost to the 108-win Red Sox in the 2018 ALDS. Also, this is only the third matchup between two 103+ win teams in postseason history. The 105-win Red Sox beat the 103-win Giants in the 1912 World Series, and the 108-win Red Sox beat the 103-win Astros in last year's ALCS. This is, truly, a heavyweight matchup. With all due respect to the Dodgers, I thought the Astros and Yankees were the two best teams in baseball during the regular season, and now we get a best-of-seven postseason series. This is how it should be. The two best teams in the league competing for the pennant.

2. Cole in Game 3. With all due respect to Justin Verlander, I'm not sure there's a more intimidating pitcher going right now than Gerrit Cole. He is in the middle of an incredible run -- dating back to May 11th, Cole has a 1.87 ERA (2.28 FIP) with 277 strikeouts in 27 starts and 178.1 innings, and he has struck out at least one batter in 76 of his last 78 innings, which is completely ridiculous (he recently had a streak of 73 straight innings with a strikeout, the longest in history by 33 innings) -- and he goes out to the mound with three legitimate out-pitches (upper-90s fastball, slider, curveball) and a quality fourth pitch (changeup) on most days. This is pretty close to peak Pedro Martinez. It really is. I'm not saying I want the Yankees to face Verlander, but if I had to pick between the two, I'd rather take my chances against Verlander at this point than Cole. Cole has been that good these last five months or so. Fortunately the Rays did the Yankees a solid and forced an ALDS Game 5, and forced the Astros to start Cole last night. Now the Yankees don't have to see him until ALCS Game 3. That game will be at Yankee Stadium, and being an opposing player in the Bronx in the postseason is a much different animal than facing the Rays twice at home in October. The crowd could be a difference-maker. Two things have to happen for the Yankees to win the ALCS. One, they have to win a game in Houston. They couldn't do that in 2017. And two, they have to win at least one game started by Verlander or Cole. In 2017, they had to beat Verlander or Dallas Keuchel at least once, and they did beat Keuchel in Game 5. It was the win in Minute Maid Park that eluded them. With Cole pushed back to Game 3, the chances of winning Game 1 or 2 in Houston increased. Now the Yankees just have to capitalize. It won't be easy, but it will be easier than it would've been had the Astros been able to line up their ALCS rotation the way they wanted. Thanks for that, Rays. Feel free to hang a "forced a Game 5 in the ALDS" banner.

3. ALCS rotation. The Yankees have not yet announced their ALCS starting rotation, mostly because they didn't know who they were playing until last night. "Haven't decided that yet. May or may not factor who we're playing. But those will be the conversations that we have -- one of the conversations we have -- over the next couple days," Aaron Boone said earlier this week. We know this much: James Paxton, Luis Severino, and Masahiro Tanaka will start Games 1-3 in some order, and Game 4 will probably go to J.A. Happ. Games 3-5 will be played on three consecutive days and it'll be hard to squeeze a true bullpen game in there. Maybe the Yankees pair Happ with an opener in Game 4, but he's gonna have to chew up innings at some point. This is what I think the ALCS pitching matchups will be:

• Game 1: James Paxton vs. Zack Greinke (regular rest)
• Game 2: Luis Severino vs. Justin Verlander (regular rest after short rest start)
• Game 3: Masahiro Tanaka vs. Gerrit Cole (regular rest)
• Game 4: J.A. Happ vs. Jose Urquidy or Wade Miley (extra rest)
• Game 5: Paxton vs. Greinke
• Game 6: Severino vs. Verlander
• Game 7: Tanaka vs. Cole

Bet the over on runs scored in Game 4. Anyway, I expect the Yankees to stick with Paxton in Game 1. He's been their best starter -- one of the best starters in baseball, really -- for close to three months now, and you start your best in Game 1 of a postseason series. We're not splitting atoms here. This is common sense. Paxton gives the Yankees the best chance to win Game 1, so he should start Game 1. My guess is the Yankees flip Severino and Tanaka because they want Tanaka pitching at home, and because they feel better about Severino and his power stuff on the road in Minute Maid Park. The Astros have been unreal at home this season. They went 60-21 with a +168 run differential at home, plus there's this:

• AVG: .284 (2nd in MLB)
• OBP: .362 (t-1st)
• SLG: .516 (2nd)
• wRC+: 136 (1st)

The only team that came to close to that unadjusted home slash line was the Rockies (.300/.362/.522), and they play in Coors Field. The Dodgers had the second best adjusted home offense at 118 wRC+. The Yankees were third with a 112 wRC+. The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 in home wRC+ is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 14. Yeah. With the Astros being that good at home, I think the Yankees will want to limit balls in play as much as possible in Game 2, and that means a healthy dose of Severino and the bullpen. As good as Tanaka can be -- and he can be great -- he's not going to miss many bats. He relies on his defense to make plays behind him. Severino gives you a better chance to limit balls in play, so I think he gets the Game 2 start. Tanaka then follows in Game 3 with Happ or a bullpen game in Game 4. Paxton in Game 1 seems obvious, but I could see Severino and Tanaka in either order in Games 2 and 3. Either way, I think it'll be fine. The Yankees are able to set their rotation however they want because they clinched early. The Astros are more or less married to the ALCS rotation listed above because they had to play a Game 5, and didn't get a chance to rest their pitchers, which is good news for the good guys. (The Yankees have a workout in Houston today and Boone is scheduled to have his daily press conference at 6pm ET. Chances are he'll announce the ALCS rotation then.)

4. The Astros and fastballs. I stumbled upon a weird thing yesterday. Turns out the Astros were terrible against high-velocity fastballs during the regular season. I would've guessed a team with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer hammered fastballs, including high-velocity ones, but no, the Astros had trouble with big velocity. Here are Houston's ranks against 95+ mph heaters:

• AVG: .233 (23rd in MLB -- MLB average is .249)
• SLG: .404 (18th in MLB -- MLB average is .419) 
• wOBA: .318 (18th in MLB -- MLB average is .326)
• xwOBA: .325 (10th in MLB -- MLB average is .319)

Pretty mediocre, huh? Can't say I saw that coming. Bregman (.462 wOBA) and Springer (.424 wOBA) were their only exceptional hitters against 95+ mph fastballs. This matters because the Yankees had the sixth highest average fastball velocity this season at 94.0 mph. That is during the regular season. In the postseason, I reckon that number is higher because the Yankees are leaning on their top pitchers, most of whom happen to be hard-throwers. The Yankees really bring the heat and, for whatever reason, the Astros posted unimpressive results against 95+ mph pitches this year. On paper, that is advantage Yankees. Also, check out what the Yankees did against 95+ mph pitches during the regular season:

• AVG: .282 (3rd)
• SLG: .496 (2nd)
• wOBA: .363 (3rd)
• xwOBA: .333 (8th)

The Yankees, Dodgers, and Twins were the three best hitting teams against high-velocity pitches this year. Maybe that's a bad omen? I don't think so. I think it's a coincidence more than anything. The Astros had the second highest average fastball velocity this year at 94.6 mph -- the Mets led at 95.0 mph -- and again, I bet that postseason number is higher. They are going to rely on their best, most hard-throwing pitchers. Point is, the Yankees as a team hit high-velocity pitches well, and the Astros sure do have a lot of hard throwers, including the two big horses in their rotation. Conversely, the Astros didn't hit well against big velocity this season, and the Yankees bring high-end fastballs to the table. Maybe those xwOBA numbers are telling us the AVG and SLG numbers are fluky and the Yankees and Astros are closer in true talent against big velocity than you may think. We are talking about several hundred plate appearances though, and I'd prefer to look at the "what happened" stats rather than the "what should have happened" stats in a sample size that big. I'm not really sure where I'm going with this. I was just surprised to see the Astros did so poorly against 95+ mph pitches during the regular season. Hopefully it continues in October and the Yankees can overwhelm them with fastballs, especially James Paxton and Luis Severino.

5. Hicksie's return. The more I think about it, the more I expect Aaron Hicks to be on the ALCS roster. He is doing well with his flexor strain rehab and he's been taking live at-bats and throwing to the bases for some time now. Hicks is a healthy player and he's a very good player, and the Yankees should carry the most talented players on their ALCS roster. Even if he's only a bench guy, Hicks in center field and Brett Gardner in left field is the best outfield defense the Yankees can run out there in the late innings. "I would say he could potentially be a starter, be off the bench, not be on (the roster). I mean, I think they're all legitimately things we've got to consider and what makes the most sense for us. We'll try and make as good an evaluation as we can," Aaron Boone said yesterday. I have no idea when Luke Voit would play in the ALCS -- mop-up guy Wade Miley is expected to be the only lefty on Houston's pitching staff -- but he can give you a quality at-bat and run into a mistake. Tyler Wade can run and play the infield. Hicks does everything Cameron Maybin does, but better. Better defensively, better runner, switch-hitter. Would the Yankees actually leave Maybin off the roster in favor of Hicks? Nothing would surprise me at this point. The larger point is Hicks should be on the roster if he's healthy enough to play. I'm not saying he should be in the starting lineup, necessarily, just that he should be on the roster. In the span of about 30 hours I've gone from "it's cool Hicks is doing well, but I'm not sure he can help the Yankees after such a long layoff" to "get him on the roster." I'm not sure who the Yankees would drop from the roster to make room for Hicks -- I think I'd make a one-for-one swap with Maybin (he can still give out hugs in the dugout) -- but he can help the Yankees in a lot of ways, and their best possible ALCS roster includes him in some capacity.

(Aside: Yesterday Aaron Hicks told Brendan Kuty he started this throwing program without the Yankees permission. He started throwing at home after his setback, sent a video to the team, and they told him to get to Tampa and do it the right way. Hicks said that, if the elbow was going to give out and he was going to need Tommy John surgery, that he wanted to get it over with, so he just started throwing to see what happened. Pretty crazy.)

6. ALCS x-factors. For the ALDS, I called Jose Berrios and Aaron Boone the x-factors. I said the Twins would need an ace-like outing from Berrios to have a chance to beat the Yankees, and they didn't get it. I also said Boone would need to improve upon last year's postseason moves and he certainly did that. His bullpen moves weren't the reason the Yankees swept the ALDS, but they definitely contributed. Boone was much better this time around. (I also called Edwin Encarnacion an x-factor because he could add length to the lineup if he came back from the oblique well, and that's exactly what happened.) For the ALCS, my Astros x-factor is George Springer. It seems like as he goes, the Astros go. Springer went 3-for-21 (.143) in the ALDS and, not coincidentally, Houston scored only 19 runs in the five games. That was enough to win the series, but it went the distance. Springer had two hits in Game 4 and a leadoff hit to spur that four-run rally in the first inning in Game 5, so his bat is maybe starting to come around. Springer really ignites the offense from the leadoff spot and keeping him off the bases makes life much easier when Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and those guys come to the plate. Neutralizing Springer is a must. As for the Yankees, I think the x-factor is Adam Ottavino. Michael Brantley and Alvarez present some matchup headaches in the middle of the lineup, but the Astros have some big time righties near the top of the order (Springer, Bregman, Altuve), and Ottavino will be tasked with getting them out in the late innings. He was the designated Nelson Cruz getter-outer in the ALDS and walked him twice, which is no good. Boone and the Yankees won't be able to use Ottavino for just one batter in the best-of-seven series because the workload has to be spread around a little more, so Ottavino has to record multiple outs. The Yankees gave him that nice three-year contract for this right here. To get out guys like Springer and Altuve and Bregman in October. The Yankees beat the Twins even without Ottavino shutting down Cruz. I'm not sure they can beat the Astros with him struggling in matchup situations against big righty bats. He's gotta get those right-on-right outs to prevent or squash rallies in the late innings in the ALCS. Springer and Ottavino are my x-factors this series.

7. The postseason baseball. Is it just me, or does it seem like MLB unjuiced the baseball? There have been more than a few balls hit that I thought were gone off the bat, both on television and in person, only to watch them settle into an outfielder's glove for an out. This Carlos Correa fly ball stands out in particular. How did that ball not land on the train tracks at Minute Maid Park? Rob Arthur (subs. req'd) wrote an article suggesting MLB is using a different baseball now than during the regular season. Specifically, he calculated the likelihood of a batted ball clearing the fence based on exit velocity, launch angle, and things like that. The numbers during the postseason don't match the numbers during the regular season. The ball has not carried as much in October. MLB of course denied changes were made to the baseball -- "The only difference is the Postseason stamp that is placed on the ball," the league told Maury Brown -- because they've been denying it every step of the way. Ask MLB and they'd tell you the ball has been the same since the dawn of time, which we of course know isn't true. Anyway, I bring this up because the ball does not seem to be carrying as much now as it did during the regular season, and I think that's a good thing for the Yankees. For starters, their pitchers gave up a lot of homers this year (248!), and anything that helps them keep the ball in the park is a positive. Secondly, the Yankees have a lot of hitters who don't need the juiced ball to go deep. Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton are all plenty strong enough to hit the unjuiced ball out of the park. Guys like Brett Gardner and Gio Urshela figure to be most impacted by the current baseball. Hopefully MLB did unjuice the baseball and the Yankees can take advantage by giving up fewer homers while still hitting the ball out at a good clip. They strike me as uniquely positioned to capitalize on a baseball that doesn't carry as much as it did during the regular season.

8. Prediction. My ALDS prediction was not very good. I had the Yankees over the Twins in five games with alternating wins. The Yankees of course swept the series in three games. I also had the bullpen blowing a game, which didn't happen. HowEVA, I did have Didi Gregorius getting the big hit in two wins and being the hypothetical ALDS MVP. That one kinda came true? He had the grand slam in Game 2 and also drove in two runs in Game 3. If such a thing existed, Gleyber Torres would've won the ALDS MVP, but Sir Didi did get a big hit at one point, so I'm considering that a win. Anyway, I had the Astros winning the ALCS in six games in our predictions at CBS. I picked Houston to win the World Series before the season and as long as that is still in play, I'm going to stick with it. What's the point of preseason predictions if you're going to change them every chance you get? Astros in six, but the Yankees crush Verlander in Game 2 and Gary Sanchez has a two-homer game at some point. Also, when the Astros do clinch in Game 6, they'll have to sweat it out. Tying run at third when Roberto Osuna gets the final out. That sorta thing. The good news is my prediction is meaningless and has no impact on anything. I expect a very fun and very well-played ALCS. These are two very good, very smart teams, and I expect an exciting series. Hopefully the Yankees make my prediction look silly and come out on top.

(I know I've been skimping on the mailbag questions lately. Sorry about that, but the postseason takes priority right now. Keep sending your questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com in the meantime.)