Thoughts following ALDS Game 1

One down, 10 more wins to go. The Yankees won a battle of the bullpens in ALDS Game 1 last night and, believe it or not, it was their first Game 1 win since the 2012 ALDS. They lost Game 1 in the 2012 ALCS, 2017 ALDS, 2017 ALCS, and 2018 ALDS. (They did win the 2017 and 2018 Wild Card Games, but those aren't series.) Being up 1-0 is much better than being down 0-1, isn't it? Anyway, here are some thoughts following Friday's win.

1. Bullpen aggressiveness. Aaron Boone and the Yankees have spent the last few weeks saying they plan to be very aggressive with their bullpen in the postseason and that was certainly the case in Game 1. Let's break down the moves one-by-one.

Sticking with Paxton

I thought leaving James Paxton in to face Mitch Garver a third time was a mistake. Not only is there the third time through the order penalty to consider, but Garver annihilated lefties this season. He hit .321/.434/.736 (198 wRC+) against southpaws during the regular season. The FanGraphs splits database goes back to 2002 and, since then, there have been almost 3,100 individual seasons in which a right-handed batter had at least 100 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. Garver's 198 wRC+ was 49th highest. He mashes lefties and I didn't like letting Paxton face him a third time with a man on base in a one-run game. Sure enough, Paxton struck him out. Struck him out in all three at-bats. Once Paxton got through Garver, it made sense to keep him in to face Jorge Polanco. I know Polanco hit a home run earlier in the game, but he's a switch-hitter who is much better against righties (133 wRC+) than lefties (88 wRC+). Paxton hung a full count breaking ball and Polanco deposited it into left-center field for the game-tying single. Blah. Bad pitch, not necessarily a bad matchup. I didn't like Paxton vs. Garver and he got the out. I liked Paxton vs. Polanco and he gave up the game-tying hit. Go figure. If there's a Game 5, and I sure hope there is not, I hope we don't see Paxton vs. Garver three times again. Not unless the Yankees have a huge lead.

Ottavino for one batter

The Yankees very clearly have tremendous respect for Nelson Cruz. They used their best right-on-right reliever, Adam Ottavino, against him in a tie game in the fifth inning. Ottavino walked him after getting ahead in the count 0-2 -- Cruz laid off some nasty sliders off the plate -- and that was it. A one-batter outing for Ottavino. I thought Boone would stick with Ottavino through Miguel Sano, and called an audible after after the walk because he wanted Tommy Kahnle against the lefty Eddie Rosario. That's what I thought was happening. After the game though, Boone confirmed it was Ottavino for Cruz and Cruz alone. Here's what he said:

"It obviously felt like that was a big point of the game, wanted Otto for Cruz. Cruz worked a really good at-bat on him. I thought Otto threw the ball well. If he gets out of that inning, then Kahnle has a clean one there for the sixth with everyone behind him. They made it tough and had some good at-bats, so we had to get Greenie in the mix obviously, but still felt like we were covered."

I totally get matching up Ottavino against Cruz, and I also get trying to avoid letting Ottavino face left-handed batters -- they hit .241/.361/.392 (.317 wOBA) with nearly as many walks (15.5%) as strikeouts (21.7%) against him during the regular season -- but I'm not sure using him for one batter is a good idea throughout the series. That means the other late-inning relievers have to get that many more outs, and I feel like it's a wasted bullet. Ottavino is really good! Yeah, he can have trouble with lefties, but using him against Cruz and Sano would be ideal. Maybe Boone will do that going forward in the series if the circumstances (inning, score, baserunners, etc.) allow. Otherwise, Ottavino as a one-batter guy seems a little too aggressive, you know?

Britton for two innings

That was the plan before the Yankees broke the game open in the seventh. Zack Britton was going to pitch the seventh and eighth innings. Both he and Boone said so after the game. It seemed like Chad Green, who got the final two outs in the sixth inning, would go back out to pitch the seventh as well, but I loved Boone going to Britton there. The Yankees had a three-run lead at the time and the Twins had the top of the order coming up. That was going to be their best chance to get back into the game. Also, those specific hitters hammer fastballs. Over 500 hitters put 100 four-seam fastballs in play this season. The top of the Minnesota lineup:

1. Mitch Garver: .420 xwOBA (38th highest in MLB)
2. Jorge Polanco: .367 (189th)
3. Nelson Cruz: .467 (10th highest)
4. Eddie Rosario: .393 (104th)
5. Miguel Sano: .438 (28th)

Those five hitters (especially Garver, Cruz, and Sano) crush four-seam fastballs and Green throws pretty much nothing but four-seam fastballs. Maybe the Yankees could have gotten away with it with a three-run lead. In the postseason though, with a chance to take a 1-0 series lead, I think you have to go to Britton in that spot. He is an elite sinkerball pitcher -- his 77.2% ground ball rate was the highest in baseball this season (Aaron Bummer was a distant second at 72.1%) -- and those are the guys you want to keep on the ground. Last year I wrote the Yankees should use Britton against the heart of the Athletics lineup in the Wild Card Game because they were big time fly ball hitters (they did!). The same applies here. Those top four hitters in the Twins lineup can really hurt you when they get the ball in the air, so combat them with the game's best ground ball pitcher. I loved going to Britton there. I just had no idea what the Yankees were going to do in the eighth inning after burning Ottavino, Kahnle, and Green (miss you, Dellin). Turns out the plan was Britton for two innings, something he never did during the regular season (only once did he get even four outs in an appearance). The pitch count was manageable (15) and it sure looked like Britton had another inning in him -- Boone also indicated he was prepared to use Aroldis Chapman for more than three outs -- but fortunately the offense broke the game open and it wasn't necessary. All the top late-inning relievers will be available for Game 2 today because the Game 1 workload was spread out. "I just think there were some spots that I felt good about certain guys in, and the other good thing about tonight is I feel like all of our  guys are back in play for tomorrow, and we're not pushing them, necessarily," Boone said.

Chapman in the ninth

Like everyone else, I assumed J.A. Happ would pitch the eighth and ninth after the Yankees broke the game open. He pitched only the eighth, though, and Chapman got the ninth. I'm fine with it. One, this is the postseason, and I am forever cool with showing no mercy. Even with a six-run lead, when you have a chance to nail down a Game 1 win -- historically, the team that wins Game 1 of a best-of-five series goes on to win the series 75% of the time -- going to one of the best closers in the game is a fine move. Two, Happ labored a bit in the eighth (two baserunners and 23 pitches), and Chapman started warming up anyway in case things got interesting. Once he starts warming up, you might as well use him. Three, I suspect the Yankees wanted to make sure Happ would be available again today, and also be in the best position to start a potential Game 4, so they didn't want him pitching too much. And four, Chapman has barely pitched these last few weeks. Including last night, he's thrown 5.1 innings since August 31st (!). Eighty-eight pitches in 34 days. Chapman is well-rested and he's a guy who needs regular work to stay sharp. We've seen him come out after long layoffs and struggle to find the zone. Get him in there, slam the door shut, and secure the Game 1 win. Maybe the story would be different if Chapman had a busy September, but that was not the case. Using him for an inning with a six-run lead was a-okay with me last night.

2. DJ and Gleyber. It's fitting the only two regular position players who avoided the injured list this season -- literally the only two -- had a big hand in the Game 1 win. DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres were the Yankees MVPs this year (shoutout to Brett Gardner) and they had the biggest hits last night. Well, the biggest balls in play is more accurate. Torres hit a tailor-made 5-4-3 double play that should have ended the third inning, but C.J. Cron didn't make the scoop at first base -- the throw wasn't good, but that is absolutely a ball a Major League first baseman has to pick -- and two runs scored. Torres then had the two-run go-ahead double in the fifth inning and my goodness, what an at-bat. Righties hit .205/.268/.333 (.261 wOBA) with a 42.2% strikeout rate against Tyler Duffey this year. Gleyber fell behind in the count 0-2, laid off several nasty breaking balls to work the count back full, then ripped a 103.5 mph grounder Miguel Sano couldn't handle at third base. That was a great at-bat for a veteran. It was an off-the-charts good at-bat for a 22-year-old.

"I got that opportunity and just try to take a really good ball to put it in play. So I swing at the first pitch and take the second one, and after that I just feel relaxed. I don't want to feel pressure in that moment. I never feel panic and just try to take really good pitches to put the ball into play, and help my team. I mean, he threw me a really good slider -- or breaking ball, I don't know what he throws -- but he throws me really good, and I take it. Just waiting for a fastball. He threw me one, and I do that," Torres said. As for LeMahieu, I mean, geez, what more can you say about that guy. He swatted an insurance run solo homer in the sixth and put the game to bed with his bases-clearing double in the seventh. LeMahieu went 10-for-15 with the bases loaded during the regular season, and while I know weird things happen in small sample sizes, I'm surprised LeMahieu only hit .667 with the bases loaded this year. That dude is automatic in huge spots. The Yankees scored 10 runs in Game 1 and eight scored on Torres and LeMahieu hits/balls in play. Those two were the lineup mainstays all season and they were crucial to the Yankees winning 103 games. It's only fitting they were again crucial to the Game 1 win. "He's been doing that all year. Like I said, he's 22, and no situation is too big for him. He's an impressive player," LeMahieu said about Gleyber.

3. Encarnacion's return. I think Edwin Encarnacion is going to be just fine. Encarnacion had not seen game action pitching in more than three weeks going into Game 1, yet there he was, batting cleanup and ripping doubles. His first double checked in at 111.7 mph. His second double was 114.4 mph. That is Encarnacion's highest recorded exit velocity since Statcast launched in 2015. I was worried -- understandably, I think -- that Encarnacion wouldn't be himself at the plate after the three-week layoff. He'd need to get his timing down, something like that. Instead, this guy can apparently roll right out of bed and hit line drives. I labeled Encarnacion as my x-factor player earlier this week and I'm glad he looks good at the plate. He adds length to the lineup, he adds another power bat to the lineup, and he adds another patient veteran presence who will work the pitcher hard. Without him, I'm guessing Luke Voit would be the DH? That's not ideal given how much Voit struggled following the sports hernia. Getting Encarnacion -- this Encarnacion -- back is huge. He's a game-changer. "I just tried to do the best I can do. Looking for my pitch. Looking for my pitch and be aggressive. Got a great result. I try to swing at the ball in the strike zone and got some good luck today," he said after the game.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Giancarlo Stanton saw a steady diet of breaking balls down and away and had four really good at-bats. Worked three walks and nearly beat out a run-scoring infield single. I am totally cool with giving Stanton the green light in a 3-0 count with two men on base in the first inning there -- I love 3-0 green lights and wish more players would turn it loose -- but he's got to swing at a better pitch. That fastball was in on his hands ... ho hum, Aaron Judge reached base three times (single, two walks) and made two diving catches in right field. Just another day at the park for the game's most underappreciated all-around great player ... the Yankees have made it clear they want to break up the righties with a lefty bat in the middle of the order, and with Didi Gregorius struggling, Brett Gardner is the only other option. He batted third in Game 1 and of course hit a homer, his 29th of 2019. Fun fact: Gardner had a top 30 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers this year (.546). Might as well keep him in the three-hole against righties (against a lefty, stack those righties please) ... nice start for James Paxton, who was bit twice by the long ball and seemed to fight his command/adrenaline, but did strike out eight in 4.2 innings against a team with one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. Also, his fastball averaged 97.4 mph in the first inning, so yeah, he did get that adrenaline bump ... the Twins are starting rookie righty Randy Dobnak in Game 2. I know two things about him. One, he allowed two earned runs in 16.1 innings in three starts to close out the regular season, but those starts came against the Royals, Tigers, and a depleted Indians lineup. And two, he's an undrafted free agent who was pitching in an independent league as recently as 2017. He's a four-pitch guy (sinker, slider, curveball, changeup) with unimpressive velocity and spin rates, a history of being stingy with walks (career 5.0 BB% in the minors), and no real track record of missing bats (18.0 K%). I know this sounds like a potential "the Yankees are getting shut down by some random pitcher they've never seen before" situation, but I'm confident in this group. My guess is the 2019 Yankees will dinger Dobnak into oblivion.