October 3rd, 2019: ALDS Preview, Rotation Plans, Sabathia, Bullpens, X-Factors, Prediction, Mailbag

Once again, it is Yankees vs. Twins in the postseason. They've met often over the last two decades and the rivalry ("rivalry") has been decidedly one-sided. The 2019 ALDS begins Friday night at Yankee Stadium. I'm going to busy in the morning, so I figured I'd publish my ALDS mini-preview tonight rather than try to squeeze it in tomorrow. Chances are there will be more posts than usual in the postseason, but I can't give you a schedule ahead of time. Any extra posts will come when I have time. Sorry to be so vague. Enjoy the series.

1. History means nothing. As you know, the Yankees have dominated the Twins in the postseason over the years. They are 13-2 all-time against Minnesota in the postseason, and the two losses came against peak Johan Santana. The Yankees are also 87-35 (.713) against the Twins in the regular season since 2002, which is a 116-win pace across a full 162 game season. This matchup has been extremely one-sided. And what does it mean now? Nothing. Nothing at all. What happened in 2004 or 2009 or 2017 has no bearing on what happens in 2019. These Twins are very -- very -- different from the Twins teams that lost to the Yankees all those years. Those small ball/pitch-to-contact Twins teams in the mid-to-late-2000s never had a chance to beat the Yankees. These current Twins are much more equipped for postseason success. They have a deep lineup that can hit the ball out of the ballpark, and their pitching staff can miss bats. The Twins seemed intimidated by the Yankees back in the day and they found ways to lose, whether it was Joe Nathan blowing saves or Ervin Santana giving up dingers. I don't think the current Twins are intimidated at all. They're a good team and a confident group. I have no doubt the postseason history between these two teams will be a hot talking point during the series, but it doesn't mean anything. Different players, different teams, different years. "I don't think any of our guys care one bit about what has happened here previously," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said this week. 

2. Rotation order. The Yankees announced their ALDS rotation Thursday and it is mostly as expected. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Game 1: James Paxton vs. Jose Berrios
• Game 2: Masahiro Tanaka vs. TBA (probably Jake Odorizzi)
• Game 3: Luis Severino vs. TBA
• Game 4: TBA vs. TBA

J.A. Happ will be available in long relief in Games 1 and 2, and is presumably in the mix to start Game 4. I have to think the Game 4 starter will be TBA until the morning of Game 4. The Yankees will do whatever they have to do to get through Games 1-3, then figure out Game 4 when the time comes. As for Games 1-3, I am a bit surprised it is Tanaka in Game 2 and Severino in Game 3 rather than the other way around. I don't think it's a huge deal -- I'm confident in both guys -- but I thought the Yankees would go with their two best starters in Games 1-2. Outside that first inning in Texas, Severino has looked very good since coming back from his injuries, and his arm is nice and fresh (in theory). Generally speaking, I think the most important game in October is the next game, period. I know Joe Torre used to say he considered Game 3 the most important game, but I don't buy it. The next game is the most important game, and Game 2 means a chance to go up 2-0 or avoid going down 0-2. No middle ground. That's a big deal! Personally, I want Severino on the mound in Game 2. Also, Severino in Game 2 means he'd be available in Game 5 on normal rest, though I guess the current arrangement allows the Yankees to start either Paxton or Tanaka in Game 5, and maybe have Severino available on two days rest in relief. Eh, whatever. Like I said, I don't think starting Tanaka over Severino in Game 2 is a huge deal. I trust Tanaka. I just would've gone with Severino in Game 2 rather than play the first 18 innings of the series with the Ferrari in the garage. "Difficult decision. Frankly, I went back and forth on it daily, sometimes a few times over the course of a day. Really what it came down to -- the reason that was -- is because I feel like all those guys are in a good place. I throw J.A. Happ in that mix, too. I feel like he is throwing the ball as well as he has at any point in the season. Felt like it was a good decision and then just trying to hopefully maximize those guys as best we can," Aaron Boone told Scott Thompson.

3. Starting pitcher unfamiliarity. Thanks to injuries and the luck of the draw, the Twins barely saw the Yankees three postseason starters this season. They did not face Luis Severino at all. He was hurt when they played in May and July. The Twins also did not face Masahiro Tanaka. He missed their two head-to-head series. Tanaka's last start against the Twins came last April. James Paxton did face the Twins once this year, but he only threw three innings. That was the game he exited with his knee injury. In theory, the lack of head-to-head reps is advantage pitcher. They have the element of surprise. Even in this age of analytics, the best scouting report always comes from experience and is in the player's head, and the Twins aren't going into this series with much recent experience against New York's starters. This works both ways -- the Yankees have not faced Game 1 starter Jose Berrios since last April -- but it is especially true on Minnesota's side. This doesn't guarantee Yankees starters will flummox Twins hitters, of course, but that unfamiliarity could give the Yankees a tiny little advantage, even if it's only the first time through the order in each starter's first start. 

4. No Sabathia. Thursday afternoon Aaron Boone announced CC Sabathia will not be on the ALDS roster. He's dealing with a nagging shoulder injury and required a cortisone shot recently. I figured something was up when Sabathia didn't pitch as scheduled in Texas, but I assumed it was the knee. Instead, it's the shoulder. "Not being able to participate in the playoffs is rough, but I don't want to put the team in jeopardy. I want the best opportunity for this team to win a championship. I feel like we have a good opportunity, so I don't want to be selfish," Sabathia told Bryan Hoch. The Twins have two impact lefty bats in Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario, so I assume either Stephen Tarpley or Tyler Lyons will take Sabathia's spot on the roster. The career numbers:

• Tarpley vs. LHB: .164/.270/.236 with 41.3 K%
• Lyons vs. LHB: .208/.288/.344 with 27.3 K%

The career numbers favor Tarpley, but it's also a small sample, and Lyons has the kind of high spin breaking ball a swing happy lefty like Rosario might chase out of the zone three times in one at-bat. Tommy Kahnle and his changeup are going to be the No. 1 option against lefties in the late innings. Given Minnesota's lineup, I think the Yankees will want to carry a No. 2 lefty matchup guy (assuming Zack Britton remains married to the eighth inning), so it'll be Tarpley or Lyons in Sabathia's spot. My money's on Tarpley because he can go multiple innings, if necessary. I don't expect this guy to pitch much in the ALDS -- seriously, if I see Tarpley facing Kepler or Rosario in a big spot and not Kahnle, I might scream -- but it is a bummer Sabathia isn't healthy enough to be on the postseason roster. You know it has to be killing him. "I’m just looking forward to having a chance to participate in the playoffs, play in the playoffs, hopefully get healthy enough and just be around here for the playoffs. I’m not really focused on it being my last time or whatever, just trying to focus on winning the championship," he told Dan Martin.

5. The Twins are more beat up than the Yankees. The Yankees were dogged by injuries all season and they're not going into the postseason at 100% physically. Not even close. Guys like Dellin Betances (Achilles), Aaron Hicks (elbow), and Mike Tauchman (calf) are done for the season and we still don't know what's up with Edwin Encarnacion. Aaron Boone said Encarnacion is expected to be on the ALDS roster -- he hit in a simulated game against Jordan Montgomery earlier this week -- but how effective will he be after not playing in three weeks? Who knows. Also, James Paxton had that butt injury over the weekend and Gio Urshela twisted his ankle, and Gary Sanchez only squeezed in a handful of at-bats in Texas. Not great! That's all bad, but consider what the Twins are dealing with:

• Pesky infielder Luis Arraez suffered a Grade 1 ankle sprain last weekend and his ALDS availability is up in the air. He hit .334/.339/.439 (125 wRC+) in 399 plate appearances.
• Super utility man Marwin Gonzalez has been out two weeks with an oblique strain. His ALDS availability is unclear. Gonzalez hit .285/.340/.450 (107 wRC+) after May 1st.
• Outfielder Max Kepler hasn't taken an at-bat since Sept. 14th. He has a shoulder injury and might not play in the ALDS. Kepler swatted 36 homers this season.
•  Center fielder Byron Buxton and ground ball specialist Sam Dyson are both done for the season following shoulder surgery.

Buxton was Minnesota's only real stolen base threat and he's a difference-making defender. Dyson's injury apparently dates back to his time with the Giants, and the Twins are investigating whether they received damaged goods at the trade deadline. With Buxton, Gonzalez, and Kepler all sidelined down the stretch, the Twins fielded an outfield with Jake Cave and Ryan LaMarre more than once. Having a compromised Encarnacion or Urshela or Sanchez would be bad news for the Yankees. The Twins going into the ALDS without Arraez, Gonzalez, and/or Kepler would weaken their powerhouse offensive significantly. Injuries are part of the game and believe me, no one felt bad for the Yankees this summer. I'd rather beat the Twins at full strength, but the reality is several of their key players may be hurting during the ALDS, or out of action entirely. Their injury situation is worse than New York's somehow. Too bad. I'd rather see both teams at full strength. (Both teams are required to submit their ALDS rosters at 10am ET on Friday. They'll be announced soon thereafter.)

UPDATE: The ALDS rosters have been announced: Twins and Yankees. Lyons makes it over Tarpley, Jonathan Loaisiga makes it over Cory Gearrin, and no Mike Ford.

6. Homers and contact. The Twins led baseball with 307 home runs during the regular season, one more than the Yankees, and they also had the fourth lowest strikeout rate at 20.9%. They swatted all those dingers without striking out excessively. It was impressive. Miguel Sano is far and away their biggest strikeout hitter (36.2%), otherwise getting them to swing and miss isn't easy. Also, the Twins hit everything. Fastballs, breaking balls, offspeed, whatever. Look at their season numbers (MLB averages in parenthesis):

The Twins are above-average against everything. No team hit fastballs as well as they did. The Yankees (.302 xwOBA) and Astros (.307 xwOBA) hit breaking balls better, and the Yankees (.313 xwOBA) and Dodgers (.313 xwOBA) were right there on offspeed pitches, but that's about it. Minnesota was a top tier team against all types of pitches. That's on a team-wide level. Individually, of course there are weaknesses. Eddie Rosario murders fastballs but is very susceptible to bendy pitches. The same is true with Jorge Polanco and Nelson Cruz, just not to the same extent. Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are the guys you can beat with well-located (and high velocity) fastballs. Long story short, this Twins offense is no joke. They hit for power and don't swing-and-miss often. They'll punish fastballs and breaking balls, and they can do it 1-9 in the order. I don't think we'll see five games like the series we saw at Target Field in July -- the Yankees won two of three that series and the combined score was 30-27 (!) -- that was an outlier series, but that's the kind of offensive ability we're talking about here. Two great offenses and two good but not great pitching staffs could lead to fireworks, especially in a ballpark like Yankee Stadium.

7. Don't sleep on their bullpen. The Yankees are going to have the bullpen advantage in pretty much any series they play. Aroldis Chapman has been nails in the ninth inning and the setup crew of Zack Britton, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Ottavino is as good as any in baseball. It's the best setup crew in baseball, I'd argue, but at the very least it's in the conversation. The Twins don't have the big name relievers but their bullpen is very good and it runs five deep:

• RHP Tyler Duffey: 2.50 ERA (3.06 FIP) with 34.5 K% and 5.9 BB%
• RHP Zack Littell: 0.88 ERA (3.51 FIP) as a full-time reliever
• RHP Trevor May: 2.94 ERA (3.73 FIP) with 29.7 K% and 9.8 BB%
• LHP Taylor Rogers: 2.61 ERA (2.85 FIP) with 32.4 K% and 4.0 BB%
• RHP Sergio Romo: 3.43 ERA (3.68 FIP) with Marlins and Twins 

The Yankees sent Littell to the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade two years ago and he came into his own after moving to the bullpen full-time in June. There is some funny business going on with his numbers -- a 23.1% strikeout rate and a 100.0% strand rate (four runs on three homers as a reliever) don't exactly scream sustainable -- that suggests regression is coming at some point. Maybe not in the ALDS, but at some point. Either the strikeouts go up or the ERA goes up. Duffey and Rogers have been stellar -- Twins manager Rocco Baldelli isn't afraid to use Rogers for 4-6 outs to nail down a save, so keep that in mind if the Twins have a lead in the late innings -- and I'm sure Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will see plenty of Romo this series. He's a classic righty specialist -- Romo held righties to a .205/.248/.394 (.261 wOBA) batting line with a 27.7% strikeout rate this season -- and it felt like Minnesota acquired him at the deadline specifically to match up with Judge and Stanton. The single biggest difference between the Yankees bullpen and the Twins bullpen is home runs. Britton, Chapman, Green, Kahnle, and Ottavino combined to allow 30 homers in 315 innings, or 0.86 HR/9. (Britton, Chapman, and Ottavino combined for a 0.54 HR/9). Those five Twins above combined to allow 35 homers in 289.1 innings, or 1.09 HR/9. Duffey, May, Rogers, and Romo each individually allowed more home runs than Britton and Chapman combined. The team that wins the ALDS will likely be the team that best keeps the ball in the park. The Yankees have the edge in that department in the bullpen, at least on paper, but Minnesota's relief crew is quite good.

8. The x-factors. The ALDS x-factors seem clear to me. For the Twins, it's Jose Berrios. He limped to the finish, pitching to a 5.83 ERA (4.44 FIP) in his final 10 starts, and his velocity took a bit of a tumble in the second half:

The performance and velocity and workload all suggest Berrios hit a wall down the stretch. The young man was fatigued, so the Twins gave him extra rest between starts whenever possible in September, and he'll start Game 1 on seven days rest. Berrios is the ace and I feel like the Twins need an ace-like performance from him to beat the Yankees in a best-of-five series. Their rotation right now is in bad shape with Michael Pineda suspended, Martin Perez hitting every branch on his fall down the regression tree (6.29 ERA and .300/.360/.479 batting line against in his final 21 starts), and Kyle Gibson being relegated to the bullpen by a late-season injury. At his best, Berrios can dominate even the best lineups, but it's been a while since we've seen Berrios at his best. Winning his start feels like a must for the Twins. As for the Yankees, is it weird I think their x-factor is Aaron Boone? They've spent the last few weeks talking about being aggressive and creative with their pitching staff, but Boone left an awful lot to be desired in that department last postseason. It's a new season and people change, they learn and adjust, and I sure hope Boone is more proactive than he was last postseason, when he ignored warning signs and hung his starters out to dry. Ultimately, the players play, and they'll decide the series. The manager has to put his team in the best position to win though, and Boone didn't do that last year. If he does it this year, the Yankees aren't guaranteed to win, but I'd feel pretty good about their chances. (As for an x-factor player, it's Edwin Encarnacion for me. A healthy and effective Encarnacion is a game-changer for the lineup. He mashes all kinds of pitching, puts up quality at-bats, and never seems to get overwhelmed by the moment.)

9. Prediction! As I teased earlier this week, my official prediction is Yankees in five. The Twins are very good offensively and I refuse to believe that lineup will make it easy on the Yankees like all those previous Twins teams. The Twins hit the most home runs in baseball this season and the Yankees allowed seventh most homers, though that could be mitigated somewhat by the shrinking pitching staff. Teams only use their best arms in October. Point is, the Twins are going to make life difficult for the Yankees, especially because they don't strike out much. They'll have to work for every out. I have the Yankees in five with alternating wins: Yankees win Game 1, Twins win Game 2, Yankees win Game 3, Twins win Game 4, and Yankees win Game 5. Didi Gregorius is my pick as hypothetical ALDS MVP. He'll come up with The Big Hit in two of the three wins and make several stellar plays in the field. Sir Didi is absolute box office. Also, the bullpen will blow a lead in Game 4 to force a Game 5. That feels like a thing that will happen. I think this series is the most evenly matched among the four LDS series, though I still think the Yankees are the better team and will win.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Tommy asks: I usually don't buy in to this type of stuff but do you think Paxton could benefit from the Game 1 start at home? He has a lower FB velocity in his first inning and it gradually increases as the game goes on. He seemed to get pretty jacked up against the Red Sox early in the season at the Bronx and his velocity was up so I am thinking maybe he can feed off the crowd and playoff atmosphere and start out throwing upper 90's which, hopefully, would help with his first inning woes. Thanks Mike!

I think that is 100% possible. Yankee Stadium has been electric the past two postseasons and I have no reason to believe things will be different in Game 1. How could that not fire a player up? We've seen James Paxton come out throwing 93-94 mph in the first inning some days, and 95-96 mph in the first inning on other days. Maybe the home adrenaline helps.

Here are Paxton's average fastball velocity numbers, since I know you're all wondering:

• 1st inning: 95.2 mph at home and 94.7 mph on the road
• 2nd inning: 95.1 mph and 95.1 mph
• 3rd inning: 95.4 mph and 95.6 mph
• 4th inning: 95.9 mph and 95.6 mph
• 5th inning: 95.9 mph and 95.3 mph
• 6th inning: 96.2 mph and 95.9 mph

Well look at that. Paxton's average fastball is a tick higher at home overall, and especially in the first inning. That extra half a mile an hour isn't nothing. Add in the postseason adrenaline bump and we may see Paxton sitting at 97 mph in the first inning in Game 1. That'd be cool.

I don't think the Yankees had this in mind when they aligned their ALDS rotation. Paxton has been the team's best starter since July and he's an obvious choice for Game 1. If the crowd amps him up and helps him through the first inning, great! I reckon he'll be fine even with his usual first inning velocity.

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