October 1st, 2019: Position Player Depth, Voit, First Base, Injuries, Stolen Bases, King, Luxury Tax

The regular season is over, and while I'm definitely looking forward to the postseason, part of me already misses the day in, day out comfort of the regular season. Baseball feels like a companion more than a hobby. It's there every day all summer. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as I look forward to watching a stress-free AL Wild Card Game for only the second time in five years. 

1. Regular season wrap-up. The Yankees limped to the finish a bit -- they lost four of their final five games and eight of their final 14 games -- and went 103-59 with a +204 run differential on the season. Third best record and third best run differential in baseball behind the Astros (107-55 and +280) and Dodgers (106-56 and +273). The Yankees also finished second behind the Twins in the home run race. Minnesota hit 307 homers. The Yankees hit 306. Remember when the Yankees hit a record 267 homers last season and it felt like a lot? Good grief. This was a wildly successful season, through and through, and overcoming all those injuries made it even more exciting. I can't remember the last time a team, Yankees or otherwise, overcame that much adversity to win triple-digit games. In terms of how exciting and how much I enjoyed the season, I'd rank the last three years 2017, 2019, and 2018, in that order. Let's call it the Aaron Judge era. I have 2017 in the top spot before no one really expected the Yankees to be good that year. Hell, the Yankees themselves were calling it a rebuilding year -- they called it a "transition," not a rebuild -- then Judge started socking dingers and Luis Severino turned into an ace overnight, and plans changed. That was a lot of fun. This season was fun because the Yankees were very good, as expected, but the path to 103 wins was hardly what we all anticipated. The injuries and Next Man Up mentality made this a very easy team to root for. The limp to the finish was a bummer, but meh, who cares. The last few games of the season don't sour an otherwise awesome year. Love this team, you guys.

2. Position player depth. As we know, all those injuries forced the Yankees to dig into their farm system and get outside help to stay in the race. With all due respect to DJ LeMahieu, who was awesome, it was guys like Gio Urshela, Mike Tauchman, and Cameron Maybin who kept the Yankees afloat. LeMahieu was supposed to be good. Maybe not this good, but the Yankees didn't give him a $24M contract expecting utility infielder production. The Yankees gave 5,199 of their 6,245 plate appearances, or 83.2%, to hitters with a 100 OPS+ or better. The Astros finished the season with a 125 wRC+ as a team -- the 1927 Yankees a 126 wRC+ as a team, for reference -- and somehow only 71.2% of their plate appearances went to players with a 100 OPS+ or better. The Dodgers were at 75.7% overall and 80.4% for non-pitchers. Longtime RAB readers may remember me compiling up-the-middle WAR the last few years, meaning combined WAR for the four up-the-middle positions (catcher, second base, shortstop, center field). Here is the 2019 up-the-middle WAR leaderboard:

The best teams are strong at the hard-to-fill up-the-middle positions and it is in no way a coincidence eight of the top ten spots belong to postseason teams (the Angels always rank high in middleWAR thanks to the Mike Trout bump). Injuries sidelined Gary Sanchez three different times, Didi Gregorius missed more than two months, and Aaron Hicks played only 59 games, yet the Yankees still finished with the third highest middleWAR in baseball. That is incredible and a testament to their organizational depth. We know the Yankees have their deficiencies on the pitching side -- only 66.8% of their innings went to guys with a 100 ERA+ or better compared to 74.5% for the Astros and 86.6% for the Dodgers -- but, on the position player side, the Yankees were as good as any team this season, and they did it despite a barrage of injuries. What an impressive year for this group.

3. Voit's struggles. Has Luke Voit played his way off the ALDS roster? I don't think so, but the fact this is even a conversation is not good. "Obviously I hope I make the roster, but I have no idea," Voit admitted to Bryan Hoch over the weekend. He has really crashed hard these last few weeks. Voit finished the season in a 1-for-33 skid and he hit .200/.319/.338 (80 wRC+) in 24 games after coming back from the sports hernia. He hit four homers in his final 52 games, which is a 12-homer pace across a full 162-game season. I thought the power was coming back a few weeks ago, but nope. Didn't happen. That Voit still finished with a .263/.378/.464 (124 wRC+) batting line and 21 homers in 510 plate appearances tells you how good he was in the first half. The end though? Yeesh. "All I'm trying to control right now is just to hit the ball hard. Whether that's a ground ball, fly ball, or at this point, a blooper. I'm just trying to have good at-bats, trying to take my walks and I guess my hit-by-pitches," Voit told Hoch, and I was surprised to see he did hit the ball pretty hard even while slumping later in the season:

To my untrained eye, it appears Voit is trying to yank everything to left field rather than stay back and drive the ball the other way -- "Last year he was new and tried to hit everything up the middle and to right-center. This year he is trying to ambush every fastball," a scout told George King -- and he's been caught in-between lately, meaning late on fastballs and out in front on breaking balls and changeups. He's always had trouble with big velocity, I covered that last year, but it has been especially bad of late. Also, Voit takes a lot -- a lot -- of called strike threes. He struck out looking 44 times this season, the 14th most in baseball -- Aaron Judge was 10th with 47 looking strikeouts, though he constantly gets hosed on low strikes -- and far too many of those called strike threes came on pitches clearly in the strike zone:

Not a good-looking strike zone plot! It suggests that, unless the pitch is middle-middle, Voit is going to let it go, which is no way to approach two-strike counts. We can't discount the sports hernia contributing to Voit's struggles at the plate. Would he still be hitting the ball this hard if he were less than 100% physically though? And does the sports hernia explain a devolving approach? Last year and earlier this year, Voit was putting together monster at-bats. He worked the count, spoiled pitcher's pitches, and waited until he got something to drive. We haven't seen that guy for a few weeks now. Since the abdominal injury first popped up during the London trip, basically. The Twins are not a big velocity team -- they ranked 20th in fastball usage (57.2%) and 20th in average fastball velocity (92.5 mph) this season -- which could help Voit in the ALDS. Ultimately, if Voit is not healthy or feels limited physically, he needs to speak up so the Yankees can prepare accordingly. I know he wants to play in the postseason, but man, this is no way to help the team. If he is healthy though, I think the Yankees should leave him on the ALDS roster, bet on the track record, and hope he snaps out of it. Being in a 1-for-33 rut doesn't mean he won't get a hit next time. "Sometimes the baseball gods don't work in your favor too much. I'm trying everything I can do to get back to where I was. I was feeling good after that last road trip and I kind of ran into some bad luck. I'm not trying to make excuses about that. Obviously the results haven't been there the last week," he told Hoch.

4. First base alternatives. I don't think it'll happen, but if Voit is left off the ALDS roster, or even just relegated to the bench, the two candidates to replace him in the lineup are Edwin Encarnacion and Mike Ford. I have to think Voit's replacement would DH with DJ LeMahieu at first base, Gleyber Torres at second base, Didi Gregorius at shortstop, and Gio Urshela at third base. Encarnacion was expected to play this past weekend, but it didn't happen, and his availability for the ALDS remains up in the air. "We expect him to be available Friday, but until we get him through some at-bats Tuesday and Wednesday, that'll be the final determination," Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch. Encarnacion even admitted he's yet to really turn it loose in the batting cage, which seems bad. At this point he's missed close to three weeks and may not be 100% physically, so that's a double whammy. He hasn't seen competitive pitching in a while and the oblique may still be giving him trouble. I'm not sure how much Encarnacion can contribute in that case. As for Ford, he had a nice little run in limited playing time at the end of the season, and finished with a .259/.360/.559 (134 wRC+) line and 12 homers in 163 plate appearances. The platoon numbers are ridiculous -- Ford hit .333/.389/1.000 (248 wRC+) against lefties and .236/.339/.427 (101 wRC+) against righties -- which suggests there's some serious small sample size weirdness going on here. The Yankees have never been known to make decisions based on small sample sizes. Sitting a slumping Voit for the flavor of the week would go against everything they've done the last few years, you know? That doesn't make it right or wrong, I'm just saying. Carrying Ford on the ALDS roster means either leaving off Voit, leaving off Encarnacion (possible if he's not healthy), leaving off Tyler Wade (the pinch-running specialist), or carrying seven relievers rather than eight. Going with one fewer reliever would really surprise me given the state of the pitching staff. The Yankees don't have to submit their ALDS roster until Friday morning and they will wait until the very last moment to do so because a) that's what every team does just in case there's a last second injury and they have to make a replacement, and b) it'll give them as much time as possible to gauge Encarnacion's readiness. The guess here -- and I emphasize this is just a guess -- is the Yankees only carry Ford on the ALDS roster if Encarnacion can't go. Otherwise it'll be Voit and Encarnacion. "There’s no question that since he’s come up, really all season long off and on, it’s been a quality at-bat ... the ability to impact the ball the way he does, the control of the strike zone. I would say he’s certainly put himself in that conversation, yes," Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty when asked whether Ford is a candidate for the ALDS roster. 

5. Lingering injuries. On that note, I have to say, I am not liking all these lingering injuries late in the season. Edwin Encarnacion was unable to play this weekend. CC Sabathia didn't pitch in relief as originally scheduled this weekend because the Yankees wanted to give him "rest," which is code for who knows what. James Paxton exited Friday's start with what is supposedly a minor glute injury. Gio Urshela twisted his ankle Sunday. Gary Sanchez played 11 innings behind the plate and got six plate appearances in Texas. Cameron Maybin still shakes his wrist between pitches every so often. That's on top of all the injuries that will keep guys like Aaron Hicks (elbow), Mike Tauchman (calf), and Dellin Betances (Achilles) out of action in October. I get that every team has injuries, but my goodness, it never ends. Not once this season did we see the Yankees at full strength. Not once and not even close to it. I'm sure Paxton, Sabathia, and Urshela will be fine come Friday. I'm less sure about Sanchez and Encarnacion given the nature of their injuries. (Even if they're deemed healthy, will they be effective?) The Yankees have been overcoming injuries all season so it's only fitting they'll have to do it in October too. "The team just stayed positive and somebody else came up to fill in a void, and guys took advantage of opportunities that they knew they might otherwise not have (received). You couldn’t ask for more. It’s a tremendous story but we’ve got to see it through," Hal Steinbrenner told Mark Didtler last week.

6. Stolen base problems. Good gravy did the Rangers run wild against the Yankees this past weekend. Nine stolen bases in 10 attempts in three games, including two double steals in one inning (!) against Luis Severino. Those steals were almost all on the pitchers too. The guys on the mound didn't give Austin Romine or Gary Sanchez much of a chance to throw out the runner. As ugly as this weekend was in terms of stolen bases, the Yankees were actually pretty good at limiting steals this season. The numbers:

• Stolen bases allowed: 71 (10th fewest)
• Stolen base attempts: 95 (10th fewest)
• Stolen base attempt rate: 4.4% (12th lowest)
• Caught stealing rate: 25.3% (13th lowest)

The caught stealing rate is low -- Sanchez slipped from 30% last year to 23% this year -- but, overall, the Yankees did a nice job limiting stolen base attempts this year. Runners attempted a steal in 4.4% of their opportunities against the Yankees -- the league average is 4.7% and a stolen base opportunity is defined as a runner at first or second with the next base unoccupied -- and that's pretty good. The overall numbers are good. On an individual level though, the Yankees have some extremely stolen base prone pitchers. Chief among them: Adam Ottavino. Runners went 15-for-16 stealing bases against him this season, the sixth most steals allowed in baseball, and he did that as a reliever. Runners attempted a steal in 13.4% (!) of their opportunities against Ottavino. That is nothing new. His stolen base problem dates back to his Rockies days. A high-leverage reliever being that prone to stolen bases is a bit of a problem. Ottavino typically only pitches in close games, when that extra 90 feet can make a huge difference. Runners went a combined 13-for-15 stealing bases against Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle, three other high-leverage relievers. Stolen bases are not a fatal flaw -- you still need someone to get a hit (or at least make contact) to get that run home -- but they sure can change an inning. I guess the good news is the stolen base is not part of the Twins games at all. They stole 28 bases this season, far and away the fewest in baseball, and stolen base leader Byron Buxton (13-for-17) is done for the season following shoulder surgery. Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario can swipe the occasional bag, but, overall, the Twins probably aren't going to rely on stolen bases. They hit the ball over the fence. Still, the Yankees have to be cognizant of the runner in the late innings. The best way to prevent stolen bases is to not allow baserunners. When someone does reach base, guys like Green and especially Ottavino have to do their best to hold them. Pickoff throws, varied times to the plate, whatever. Sanchez will give the Yankees a fighting chance against any basestealer because his arm is so strong, but one man can only do so much. The pitchers have to give him some help. The Rangers did a nice job taking advantage of the stolen base opportunities this weekend, and fortunately those games meant nothing. That will no longer be true starting Friday.

7. King's debut. Mike King made his first and so far only MLB appearance over the weekend in Texas. It went fine (one unearned run in two innings) even though he seemed a bit amped up and overthrowing, which is understandable for a kid in his first MLB game. King loves to front door his sinking two-seamer to lefties and he tried it a few times, but didn't get the calls (like this and this). So it goes with a rookie strike zone. "It was awesome. Long-awaited. I felt very confident, very in control. I think it was because I've been here for a few days, so I got used to my surroundings, all the players, staff. It's something I'll never forget," King told Bryan Hoch about his MLB debut. Anyway, now that King has appeared in a big league game, we have some Statcast data on him, so let's get to it:

• Sinker: 91.4 mph and 2,263 rpm (MLB averages: 92.2 mph and 2,136 rpm)
• Slider: 82.8 mph and 2,564 rpm (MLB averages: 84.7 mph and 2,428 rpm)
• Changeup: 84.7 mph and 1,806 rpm (MLB averages: 84.5 mph and 1,807 rpm)

Statcast classified King's breaking ball as a curve but I think it was a slider. Does this look like a curveball or a slider? What about this? Looks like a slider to me, and all the scouting reports over the years have said he throws a slider with no mention of a curveball, so I'm sticking with slider. Anyway, based on that quick little two-inning look, King's stuff is almost exactly average across the board. Little less velocity than average on the sinker and slider, but he can spin the slider, and he's not afraid to pitch inside with the sinker. (With a sinker, you want a lower spin rate so it tumbles down. High spin is good for straight four-seamers.) King has added a cutter since joining the Yankees two years ago but he didn't throw any in his appearance, so there's still another weapon in there we've yet to see. I know there is nothing sexy about league average, but three average pitches (not to mention the cutter) with above-average control and command equals an above-average pitcher. You don't need to be an ace to have big value. King has a starter's arsenal, a starter's command and control, a starter's pitching know-how, and he had a starter's durability up until this year's elbow injury as well. He may not wow anyone with big velocity or a nasty breaking ball, but this dude can flat out pitch, and King figures to be in position to give the Yankees spot starts next season. Getting a dirt cheap mid-to-back-end starter from the farm system -- a right-handed Jordan Montgomery, in that sense -- would be a major win. Those guys aren't cheap to acquire in free agency or trades. I'm excited to see more of King next year and it's too bad the injury didn't allow us to see more of him this year.

8. Predictions. If you're interested, my postseason predictions are up over at CBS Sports. I picked the Astros to beat the Dodgers in the World Series before the season and I'm going to stick with it. I know that's boring and makes me incredibly unoriginal (everyone is picking the Astros to win, it seems). I'm a "ride with your preseason predictions until they're no longer possible" kinda guy. The Astros are so good it's obnoxious, which of course doesn't guarantee they'll win even a single game, but that's another topic for another time. I'm planning a mini-ALDS preview for Friday and will give a more detailed ALDS prediction then -- if you're a new reader, you should know my postseason predictions have been weirdly accurate the last few years (I had the Yankees overcoming an early deficit in the 2017 Wild Card Game, coming back from down in the series to beat the Indians, Luke Voit breaking the game open with a sixth inning extra-base hit in last year's Wild Card Game, etc.) -- so for now, I'm just going to say I'm looking forward to watching the Next Man Up crew in October, and I couldn't tell you how happy I am we don't have to deal with any Wild Card Game nonsense this year. "(This season has been) something special, but I always grade our seasons, to be honest, on how we do in the postseason. That’s all the regular season is for, it’s to get in a better position going into the postseason to make your road a little easier. All this hard work, all these guys getting injured, coming back, it’ll pay off if we’re holding up that World Series trophy," Aaron Judge told Marly Rivera over the weekend.

9. Luxury tax plans. In case you missed it, Red Sox owner John Henry said they plan to get under the luxury tax threshold next year. Boston had baseball's highest payroll this year ($242M) and last year ($233M), and now they want to get under the $208M threshold next year. CEO Sam Kennedy said keeping Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez will be "difficult given the nature of their agreements," and oh by the way ticket prices are going up too. What a scam. I used to think the whole "we're not going to spend money" thing was a way to create leverage in contract and trade talks but wow was I naive. Teams across MLB are scaling back on their spending despite record revenues, so much so that the defending champs are now saying they might not be able to afford their best player and another top tier player. I repeat: What a scam. The luxury tax -- the laughably named Competitive Balance Tax -- never had anything to do with competitive balance. It's a mechanism to divert money from the players to the owners, plain and simple. The Yankees ducked under the luxury tax threshold last season and you know what? Don't be surprised if they try again in the near future. Masahiro Tanaka's and Jacoby Ellsbury's contracts come off the books after next year, so getting under the $210M threshold in 2021 could be a possibility. If not 2021, then maybe in 2022 with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (and presumably a higher luxury tax threshold, though who knows with the current MLBPA). I love baseball, more than any one person should, but I mostly hate baseball teams these days. What the Red Sox are doing is no better than what the Marlins did after 1997. Same idea on a different scale. How this is good for the game, I have no idea.

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