Thoughts after Dellin Betances' Achilles injury

The Yankees were dealt another significant injury this week. Dellin Betances has a partially torn left Achilles, and although surgery has not yet been recommended (he's going for a second opinion soon), his season is over. He worked so hard for so long to come back from the shoulder injury only to have his Achilles give out. This sucks so much. I have a bunch of thoughts on Dellin's injury, so here's an emergency Patreon post.

1. Fluke injury. I am heartbroken for Betances. I really am. This was supposed to be a great and memorable season for him. Make a World Series run with a powerhouse team and get a nice big free agent contract after the season. Instead, Dellin's shoulder didn't cooperate in Spring Training, and then he suffered this fluke Achilles injury on a post-strikeout hop. This in the injury right here. This little hop we've seen countless times over the years:

"When he jumped on the mound the other day, I think he came down a little awkwardly. I don't think he thought anything of it. Didn't say anything at the time. When he came in today, he was sore. Going through some tests, he couldn't do some things like getting up on his tip-toes. We said we're going to hold him out (of Tuesday's game) and let's go get some imaging of this, and it revealed the partial tear," Aaron Boone said Tuesday. This is unbelievable. It is truly unbelievable. The Yankees didn't need Betances the rest of the regular season, getting him back this month was all about October, but now he's a non-factor. The Yankees lost another important player -- an important player who returned from a season-long injury just this past weekend -- to a fluke injury, but, mostly, I just feel terrible for Betances. He worked so hard to get back and was finally in position to help the team down the stretch and in October. Now he'll have to watch from the dugout. This sucks so much. "Obviously frustrating. About as freak as it can be. We'll deal with it. Obviously we've dealt with a lot of things this year and this is another one. We'll support Dellin as best we can through this. He's a big part of this still going forward," Boone said.

2. Free agent stock. Coming into the season, I imagine Betances had his eyes on a Zack Britton contract. Three years at $13M per season, or thereabouts. He's a four-time All-Star who has been among the best relievers in baseball the last five years. And, prior to this year, Betances had been supremely durable. He led all relief pitchers in innings (373.1) and batters faced (1,505) from 2017-18, and he still -- still! -- leads all relievers in strikeouts since 2014. The top five:

1. Dellin Betances: 609
2. Aroldis Chapman: 554
3. Kenley Jansen: 551
4. Brad Hand: 536
5. Andrew Miller: 530

Betances spotted the rest of the league pretty much the entire 2019 season, yet he still has 55 more strikeouts than any other reliever since 2014. Unbelievable. And now Dellin won't be able to turn those numbers into dollars. The shoulder injury ruined his free agent stock a long time ago. The Achilles is adding insult to injury. Right now, Betances is looking at a low base salary one-year contract in free agency, or maybe a small two-year contract similar to what the Tommy John surgery rehab guys get. Two years and $10M? Does he even get that much? Maybe one year with a player/vesting option for a second year is the way to go. In a weird and screwed up way, the injuries may have increased the chances Dellin returns to the Yankees. They have a lot of money invested in their bullpen already and they need to spend money on starting pitching this winter. Getting rotation help (and possibly re-signing Didi Gregorius) might've priced them out on Betances in this luxury tax austerity era. Now that he's looking at a smaller contract though, the team could bring him back. We know the Yankees value having a deep bullpen, plus they know Betances better than anyone, so there is a comfort level here. Dellin's been a consummate pro with the Yankees. No controversy, nothing. He pitched big innings -- big in terms of leverage and workload -- for a long time and he didn't fire back when Randy Levine raked him over the coals following their arbitration hearing a few years ago. This is a business and it is a harsh business. No one is giving Betances a big pity contract. He'll get a small "prove yourself" contract and I hope the Yankees are the team that gives it to him. Dellin is an all-time fave and I hope he retires in pinstripes.

3. Return timetable. The Yankees said the initial recommendation is to treat the injury conservatively, meaning without surgery. Betances is going for a second opinion soon because that's what you do when you suffer a major season-ending injury, though I don't expect the diagnosis to change. We really have no idea what Dellin's timetable is at this point, but there is someone in the Yankees clubhouse who can help us figure it out: Zack Britton. Britton blew out his Achilles during an offseason workout two years ago. Here's what Britton said following Betances' injury, via Kristie Ackert:

“I thought mine was career ending. I thought Achilles rupture and I thought I was done playing. The doctor told me he was going to have me back and I was going to be fine,” Britton said. “That’s what I told Dellin ‘You’re going to be back. You’re going to be pitching again. It sucks right now, but you put in the work.’ He put the work in to get back, he’ll do it again. I told him if anything it’ll give his body a chance to rest and he’s gonna be better than ever.”

Britton suffered his Achilles injury -- it was his right Achilles, so his landing leg like Betances -- on Dec. 20th and he returned to the big leagues on June 12th. There are two important differences here. One, Britton suffered a full rupture and needed surgery. It sounds like Dellin will avoid that. And two, the Orioles rushed Britton back so they could showcase him prior to the trade deadline. I don't see whichever team signs Betances doing that. Point is, it took Britton six months to make it back following his Achilles injury. Six months puts Betances on track to return sometime in March. He might even be ready for Opening Day considering it is only a partial tear and he's not having surgery. That would be something. I'm not sure you could bank on that though. Betances returning in April or May would be pretty darn good, all things considered. Britton has said it took him some time to get his mechanics back where they need to be following the injury because his landing leg was stiff and he didn't have his full range of motion back. (Given his walk issues this year, his mechanics still might not be right.) I assume Betances will go through something similar. Britton gives us our best estimate for Dellin's timetable even though Britton suffered a more serious tear and needed surgery, and was rushed back. Hopefully six months it is and Betances can have a mostly healthy 2020.

4. Postseason roster. This is something I'm planning to discuss further in Friday's post, but the Betances injury opens a spot on the postseason roster. Realistically, I think there are three candidates to take his spot: Luis Cessa, Cory Gearrin, and Jonathan Loaisiga. I can't see Ben Heller or Jordan Montgomery making a push for a roster spot so soon after Tommy John surgery, though maybe Stephen Tarpley is a possibility against an ALDS opponent with a lefty heavy lineup. For now Cessa, Gearrin, and Loaisiga strike me as the most likely candidates to replace Betances on the ALDS roster. Loaisiga has thrown the ball really well the last few times out (5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K in his last four games) but they were all blowout situations, and that's telling. The Yankees don't trust him in high-leverage spots yet and that doesn't bode well for his chances to make the ALDS roster. Gearrin has had two meltdown games with the Yankees but has otherwise been mostly fine. He's filled Jonathan Holder's "meh, I guess this guy is fine here" role adequately. Gearrin is a righty specialist and he has pitched in a few important spots with the Yankees, plus he's a veteran guy and teams always seem to defer to the veteran for the last spot on the roster. Cessa has been with the Yankees all season and he's been perfectly fine as the long man. He's got a 3.71 ERA (4.61 FIP) overall in 77.2 innings this year, and he's held righties to a .213/.282/.414 (.290 wOBA) batting line. What more do you want from a guy in that role? Cessa has been with the team all year and we've seen Aaron Boone use him in some big situations as well -- he does that when the bullpen is short and he's low on options, not because he wants to do it -- plus he can give you multiple innings. That's not nothing with the Yankees possibly using openers and piggyback starters in the postseason. My hunch right now is Cessa is the favorite to replace Betances on the postseason roster with Gearrin the runner-up. Loaisiga being used in nothing but low-leverage situations leads me to believe he's an emergency option only.

5. Postseason bullpen. With Betances out, I wonder now if the Yankees will use Domingo German in more of a traditional bullpen role in October. Use him as a multi-inning guy who can bridge the gap from starter to high-leverage relievers. Another Chad Green, basically. The Yankees are using German as a piggyback starter with CC Sabathia right now to get him familiar with a bullpen role, so I don't think we can rule it out. Personally, I think it would be nuts. German is one of the four best starters on the team, so he should start in October. I get using him as a piggyback guy now. Get him familiar with the role and give yourself as many options as possible, but German is one of the team's four best starters and he should get a start in the postseason. The bullpen now is a real possibility with Betances out. That all said, Aaron Boone and the Yankees were never going to deviate from their usual bullpen approach in October. Aroldis Chapman is the closer, Zack Britton is the eighth inning guy, Adam Ottavino (vs. righties) and Tommy Kahnle (vs. lefties) match up in the sixth and seventh innings, and Green does the multi-inning thing. Betances would've been an added piece of depth rather than someone who took the eighth inning away from Britton, you know? Dellin missed most of the season and was still kinda in Spring Training mode when he returned. He could've been a real weapon in October but I think Boone and the Yankees were going to stick with the plan that worked all year, and mix Betances in as necessary. I am hopeful the Yankees won't move German to the bullpen (and thus give J.A. Happ a start) in the postseason. Dellin's injury did increase the chances it happens though, at least somewhat.