September 10th, 2019: Happ, Severino & Betances, German, Hicks & Tauchman, Garcia, Heller, Dombrowski, Pineda

So, was eliminating the Red Sox from the AL East race in their own ballpark fun or what? I'm glad the season series is over too. That 17-man bullpen Boston is using is unwatchable. My goodness. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as J.A. Happ pitches just well enough to trick the Yankees into giving him a postseason start.

1. Happ's rebound. Speaking of J.A. Happ, his last two starts have been very good (12.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 12 K combined), and they came again two really good offensive teams (Athletics and Red Sox). That start Saturday was the best he's looked all season, I thought. Happ got 12 swings and misses with his fastball, his second most in a game this year, and many of them were on elevated heaters. I checked his fastball spin rate after the game thinking it might be trending up given the whiffs and nope:

Happ's fastball spin rate Saturday was his second lowest in a start this year, and lower than any start last season. Go figure. Perhaps more important than the whiffs are the weak fly balls. Even during his best years with the Blue Jays, Happ was never a ground ball pitcher. His success was built around missing the barrel and generating weak fly balls. He's gotten those weak fly balls the last two times out. Here's the spray chart of Happ's non-grounders in his last two starts (colored by exit velocity):

Good thing those balls hit to the 385 marker came in Fenway Park and not Yankee Stadium, huh? Happ's average exit velocity allowed on non-grounders was 91.5 mph from May through August. Through two September starts, it's 89.6 mph. That's ... something? The contact has been better the last two starts, for sure. Happ hasn't changed his pitch selection in a significant way recently -- he did throw a lot of sliders (for him) on Saturday, but I think it was because the BoSox had four left-handed hitters in the starting lineup more than anything -- which would seem to indicate his recent success comes down to location and sequencing. We'll see. Back-to-back good starts against good offenses doesn't erase an overall miserable season, but it is better late than never. The Yankees are fighting for the best record in baseball and homefield advantage throughout the postseason, and anything Happ can give them down the stretch (and in October?) is a plus.

2. Sevy's and Dellin's rehab. We are starting to see the light at the end of the Luis Severino and Dellin Betances rehab tunnels. They both pitched for Double-A Trenton last Friday -- it was Severino's second rehab outing and Dellin's first -- and everything went well. "Stuff was major league (caliber). Did seem to start fighting his command. Seemed to tire a little at the end. Good life on his fastball and slider (was) sharp," a scout told Erik Boland about Severino's outing. The scout had his fastball at 94-97 mph and his slider at 84-86 mph, which is encouraging. It is down from last year's season averages (98.1 mph and 88.5 mph), but is encouraging for a guy who missed the entire season with a shoulder/lat issue and is currently in Spring Training mode. Had Severino come out firing 89-91 mph, I would've been worried. Up to 97 mph in his second rehab start? That's plenty good enough for me. As for Betances, Mark Feinsand says he was mostly 93-94 mph in his inning. Dellin is a notorious slow starter velocity-wise. Look at his (March and) April readings, historically:

"That’s the hardest I’ve thrown this year. I wasn’t like that in spring. For me, it always takes a little bit, so the more I pitch, the better it will be. I know with more adrenaline, more fans, you can add a couple (mph) there, but I think today was a good step," Betances told Feinsand following his rehab outing. There are only two weeks and change remaining in the regular season, and seeing how Dellin usually doesn't reach his max velocity until June or July, I'm guessing we won't see the 98-100 mph version of Betances this year. Hopefully he can still get outs and out-stuff hitters in the mid-90s. Betances will pitch for Double-A Trenton tonight and could make another appearance later this week, depending how long Trenton stays alive in the postseason. Severino will start for the Thunder tomorrow and throw roughly 60 pitches, then rejoin the Yankees. Sounds like both Severino and Dellin could be back this weekend. That gives them two weeks to finishing shaking off the rust and prepare for the postseason. Cutting it close, but at least their rehab is going well. I'm looking forward to seeing both guys back in pinstripes. "Over the last month, in (Severino's) mind, he’s confident he’s through his injury and building really good momentum with every bullpen, every outing. We have a lot at stake moving forward here and we want to make sure we do everything we can to optimize that he’s a part of things," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin.

3. German's new role. CC Sabathia will be activated tomorrow and start against the Tigers. He had his knee drained and received a cortisone shot two weeks ago, threw a few bullpen sessions last week, and was deemed good to go. That's good. Glad Sabathia will get a chance to pitch again before the end of the year. The Yankees are planning to have Domingo German piggyback with Sabathia tomorrow. Sabathia's knee might limit him to 30-40 pitches at this point, so he's effectively an opener. As for German, the Yankees are preparing him for a possible bullpen role in October. "Part of that is a way of controlling Domingo’s workload while keeping him on a regular (turn). Also for that possible scenario to where Domingo is a guy that maybe you could see in the postseason starting a game or you could see pitching in relief in a certain situation,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty. I am totally cool with giving German some bullpen time the next week or two. He's at a career high workload -- German's 140.2 innings are 17.1 more than his previous career set in 2014, the year before he had Tommy John surgery -- and giving him a little break before October seems like a good idea, especially with his velocity dipping and wavering a bit lately:

Also, the Yankees might need German in the bullpen in the postseason, and giving him time in that role seems worthwhile, just to get familiar with it. The Yankees don't have to use German in relief in October but they would be foolish to not prepare for the possibility. Give yourself as many options as possible, you know? The Astros (Lance McCullers Jr. in ALCS Game 7 and Charlie Morton in World Series Game 7) and Red Sox (all throughout the postseason) used starters in relief very effectively during their recent title runs. German could be the guy who saves the day in extra innings or when the high-leverage guys are taxed, or when the starter gets knocked out early and you need someone to hold the other team down and give the offense a chance to get back in the game. It looks like Luis Severino will indeed be a postseason factor. In that case, do you hold German back to be the Game 4 starter, or deploy his swing-and-miss stuff out of the bullpen, possibly piggybacking with a not completely stretched out Severino? The Yankees will figure that out when the time comes. For now, they're getting German comfortable with the bullpen, and I am completely on board with that. "If that’s the plan moving forward, then I am going to be fine with it. We’re trying to win a championship. If the plan is to use me in different situations, I am completely fine," German told Bryan Hoch.

4. Hicks setback and Tauchman injury. The Aaron Hicks setback absolutely sucks. He started a throwing program last week and had to be shut down over the weekend, and his season may in jeopardy. He's getting a second opinion this week. “Just not feeling quite right. He had another MRI done, everything checked out really well so that’s encouraging, but he’s still not quite where he needs to be to really start ramping up ... We’ll see how the next several days unfold, but as of right now he hasn’t been able to advance," Aaron Boone told Marly Rivera. There are two weeks and five days remaining in the regular season and it's hard to see how Hicks could properly rehab the injury and get back up to speed at the plate in that time frame. Add in Mike Tauchman's season-ending Grade 2 calf strain and the outfield depth chart thinned out in a hurry. The Hicks setback and Tauchman injury mean Brett Gardner is now locked in as the everyday center fielder -- I guess Cameron Maybin is the backup center fielder now? -- and that left field will come down to one of four things in the postseason:

1. Keep running Maybin out there every day.
2. Hope Giancarlo Stanton gets healthy before the postseason.
3. Do something crazy like put DJ LeMahieu or Gio Urshela in the outfield.
4. Hope Aaron Boone accidentally puts Clint Frazier in the lineup.

Maybin is the most likely solution and LeMahieu/Urshela is the least likely solution. The Yankees have made it clear they have little interest in playing Frazier. He was up earlier this year because the injuries forced their hand and nothing more. Clint is the new Jesus Montero and Rob Refsnyder, the guy we all think should be playing but isn't. And hey, the Yankees have a good track record in these situations, but damn yo, maybe give Frazier a look now that Hicks and Tauchman are down and Stanton's return is up in the air? Even if it's only to rest Gardner and Aaron Judge down the stretch so they don't get hurt. As for Giancarlo, he is in Tampa getting at-bats against minor leaguers, and Boone indicated he could return for the next homestand. That homestand -- the final homestand of the regular season! -- starts Sept. 17th and would leave Stanton with 11 games and about 50 plate appearances to prepare for October (maybe he could squeeze in a few rehab games with Double-A Trenton before then). That's about as many as Judge had following his broken wrist last year. It'll be tight, but I'm not sure what else the Yankees are supposed to do. Stanton in left field is far and away the best case scenario with Hicks and Tauchman down. Things went south in the outfield in a hurry, huh? Last week I said the chances of Tauchman starting in the postseason were annoyingly high. Well, now we don't have worry about Tauchman starting in October because it could be Maybin instead. Please come back soon, Giancarlo. "When Giancarlo’s ready, he’ll be here," Boone told Pete Caldera.

5. Garcia not called up. Triple-A Scranton's season ended over the weekend -- they were swept in their first round postseason series -- and the Yankees opted not to call up top prospect Deivi Garcia. Lindsey Adler first reported the Yankees were sending Garcia to Tampa to continue working out, and Aaron Boone later confirmed it. "I think we continued to see progress. We saw a very young, very talented pitcher make that next step, that next level of adjustment. He’s flashed a lot of good things, even there at Triple-A, that got us excited. With the season he’s had, he’s put himself in very good position with us moving forward ... It’s not out of the realm that at some point he could still be a factor (this year)," Boone told Brendan Kuty. From a prospect watching point of view, it's a bummer Garcia was not called up, but I totally get it and am fine with it. He's a 20-year-old kid who struggled in his limited Triple-A time (5.40 ERA and 5.77 FIP) and got torched (five runs in one inning) in his lone postseason appearance. The age and performance at the highest level doesn't exactly suggest MLB readiness, you know? I thought the Yankees would send Garcia back to Double-A Trenton for their postseason series, but he's already working on a career high workload (112.1 innings), so effectively shutting him down makes sense. Let him rest up after a successful season and prepare for next season, during which he should make his MLB debut at some point. I really thought the pitching needy Yankees would be aggressive and give Deivi a September call-up, but I was dead wrong. I was looking forward to watching him, not gonna lie, but I don't think a call-up is appropriate at this point in time. Let him wind things down after the longest season of his career. The Yankees are fine without Deivi.

6. Heller's arrival. The Yankees will activate righty Ben Heller prior to tonight's (or tomorrow's) game. He spent the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and was very good following his setback a few weeks ago (0.82 ERA and 2.35 FIP with Triple-A Scranton). Heller was not activated over the weekend because he threw two innings Saturday and wasn't going to be available for a few days, so the Yankees didn't want to make a 40-man roster move before absolutely necessary. Heller is on the 60-day injured list, so he's been accruing service time and collecting MLB pay all along. Waiting a few days to activate him hurts no one. Never say never, but it seems unlikely Heller can pitch his way into the postseason roster mix. He's going to throw what, maybe five innings the rest of the season? If that. The important thing is that he's healthy and will get a chance to help the Yankees these last few weeks, even if he's only mopping up low-leverage situations. I'm a Heller fan and I'm glad he's completed that long grueling rehab and made it back to the show. As for the 40-man roster move, Mike Tauchman to the 60-day injured list is the obvious move now given his Grade 2 calf strain. His time table is set at 6-8 weeks. (That's exactly why the Yankees waited to activate Heller. Activate him right away, before he was available, and they would've had to designate someone for assignment. Now Tauchman to the 60-day injured list means no organizational depth lost.) Aaron Hicks to the 60-day injured list is another possibility once Luis Severino and/or Dellin Betances are ready to return. There's a chance Hicks could still return this season -- a very small chance, but still a chance -- and I imagine the Yankees want to keep that door open as long as possible. Adonis Rosa was the only 40-man roster player not called up when Scranton's season ended, which probably isn't good news for him. I think he's the first player to be dropped from the 40-man once all 60-injured list options are exhausted. (Jonathan Holder could be a 60-day injured list candidate at this point. We haven't heard any updates on him in a while.)

7. Dombrowski fired. The Red Sox fired president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski following Sunday's game --  they officially said they "parted ways" with Dombrowski but come on, they fired him, and they buried the news on the night the Patriots opened their season -- which is what happens when you get shut down by 2019 J.A. Happ. In all seriousness, there were rumblings Dombrowski was on thin ice these last few weeks even though the Red Sox won a franchise record 108 games last season and the World Series. Dombrowski has been in this game a very long time and, after the Red Sox hired him in 2015, he did exactly what he always does: Spend money, trade prospects, and win a lot of games. The Red Sox won three straight AL East titles from 2016-18 plus that World Series, and now he's gone in Sept. 2019. They fired him and ownership didn't even hold a press conference to discuss it. They hung manager Alex Cora out to dry. "The team sent a statement. They want to make sure we appreciate what they did as an organization. For some people that’s not enough, for others it isn’t. I’m here every day to talk to you guys,” Cora told Jason Mastrodonato yesterday. I wonder whether ownership wants to get out of luxury tax hell -- they are going to get slammed this year as a repeat offender with the game's highest payroll -- and knows Dombrowski isn't the man for the job. You don't employ Dombrowski to hoard prospects and trim payroll. The Red Sox have roughly $150M committed to seven players next season and Mookie Betts is not one of the seven. He's arbitration-eligible for the final time and will make about $30M next year before becoming a free agent. How you retain Mookie and get under the luxury tax threshold ($208M in 2020 and $210M in 2021), I have no idea, but that might be what the Dombrowski's replacement is asked to do. Boston has a ton of talent and, even if they cut back on payroll, they'll still run a larger payroll than most. It's a pretty desirable situation and I'm sure they'll hire someone very bright to run the team. The Dombrowski thing is weird though. They had an all-time great season a year ago and have a strong young talent base right now. I can't help but feel like there is (or was) something going on behind the scenes that led to the dismissal that we don't know about. I mean, that's always the case, but this seems like more than a simple "the team is having a disappointing season and you need to go" dismissal. Very odd. Things got tumultuous in a hurry in Boston. (Dombrowski and Brian Cashman are very close friends. Don't be surprised if the Yankees try to bring Dombrowski aboard as a special advisor or something.)

8. Pineda's suspension. In case you missed it over the weekend, former Yankee and current Twin Michael Pineda was suspended 60 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug masking agent. The suspension was reduced from the standard 80 games to 60 games on appeal because Pineda's side apparently convinced an independent arbitrator that he did not take the drug to mask anything. Whatever. Either way, the suspension is relevant to the Yankees because Pineda is now ineligible to pitch in the postseason. The Yankees are still fighting for the best record in baseball and thus homefield advantage throughout the postseason, but there's a pretty decent chance they'll finish with the second best record behind the Astros, and thus face the Twins in the ALDS. Pineda is in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and he had been dynamite since the All-Star break:

It's a small sample, of course, and we know how maddeningly inconsistent Pineda can be, but a guy getting better as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery isn't the most surprising thing in the world. Now the Twins won't have Pineda in the postseason, and his slider could've come in handy against New York's righty laden lineup. Furthermore, ace Jose Berrios has crashed hard lately, possibly due to fatigue, and Kyle Gibson has been out with an ulcer and his status is a bit up in the air going forward. Minnesota's pitching is in rough shape at the moment. Oh, and Nelson Cruz is nursing another wrist issue. The wrist sent him to the injured list twice earlier this year. Hmmm. The Twins hit a ton of home runs and I don't love that matchup against the Yankees homer happy pitching staff, but you know what? The Yankees hit a ton of home runs too -- they're only five homers behind the Twins now (275 to 270), so they might catch them and take over the league lead before the end of the season (the Twins have two games at hand though) -- and Minnesota is hardly at their best on the mound. As good as the Twins have been overall this season, it's looking like they won't go into the postseason at full strength. Maybe failing to secure homefield advantage and settling for an ALDS date with the Twins -- a very good Twins team -- wouldn't be the worst thing in the world? Eh, we'll see. I'd rather have homefield advantage, personally.

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