July 23rd, 2019: Judge, Voit, Torres, Green, Paxton, Minors

A triple play, a million other runners stranded, five homers allowed, and the Yankees still only barely lost to one of the best teams in baseball last night. Frustrating, for sure, but at no point did the Yankees feel out of that game. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as I wonder how long the Yankees will play shorthanded rather than put Brett Gardner on the injured list.

1. Judge and the opposite field. Much has been made the last few days about Aaron Judge not pulling a single home run to left field this season. Here is his 2019 home run spray chart:

That is kinda unusual, only because we saw Judge pull the everloving crap out of some home runs the last two seasons. Judge's opposite field tendencies aren't limited to home runs either. He's hitting more of everything (grounders, liners, etc.) to the opposite field this season. This year he's sitting on a 33.7% pull rate and a 32.7% opposite field rate. Last year it was 40.2% and 28.6%, respectively. During his MVP caliber 2017 season it was 41.4% and 27.8%, respectively, so yeah, Judge is definitely going to the opposite field more this year. A graph:

There has been a definite shift in Judge's spray tendencies. His home run spray chart really drives home the point, but that non-pull approach exists with all his batted balls now. And the thing is, it hasn't sapped his production at all. If anything, Judge might be a more complete hitter now that he's focusing on the opposite field. His batting average is up (.301) and he isn't sacrificing power (.242 ISO). It's not like he's turned into an opposite field singles hitter, you know? Judge saw an awful lot of shifts the last two years for a right-handed batter, and now he's hitting away from them. Yeah, I do miss those majestic 450+ foot dingers to left field, but, right now, I think we're seeing the best version of Judge. To me, this looks like a talented hitter who has gained experienced and adjusted his game to exploit the defense (wide open right side) without sacrificing his strength (power). Yeah, it is unusual that Judge has not pulled a home run, but I suspect it'll happen before long.  Otherwise I think this is the best version of Judge we've seen. He's a complete hitter.

2. Voit's pull tendencies. Luke Voit is the anti-Aaron Judge. Judge pulled most balls in play the last two years, and now he's focusing on the opposite field. Last year Voit went heavy to right field, but now he's pulling the ball much more often. Another graph:

Voit has been really good overall this season. Not as good as last year, obviously, but I don't think anyone reasonably expected him to hit like that again. Overall, Voit has been really good, even if he has looked a little discombobulated at the plate since returning from the injured list, That .271/.385/.494 (133 wRC+) batting line will play any position. Clearly though, Voit is pulling the ball more and more as the season has progressed. Unlike Judge, I'm not sure the new approach will work best for Voit long-term. He can still be productive as a dead pull hitter, no doubt, but he was at his best last year when he went the other way and peppered the short porch. This could be a temporary thing too. Voit is seeing fewer fastballs now, presumably as the league adjusts, and that could be throwing him out of whack a bit. Plus he had the injury, then he took that fastball to face over the weekend. It's been a while since we've seen the normal, healthy Voit at the plate. Hopefully he gets back to going the other way soon. That's when he's at his best. The Voit who pulls the ball is pretty good too. The guy who goes the other way is the best hitting first baseman in the American League though. (I wrote this before Voit hit that opposite field home run last night. The Axisa jinx is alive and well.)

3. Gleyber's plate discipline. Gleyber Torres is developing into an absolute megastar and I feel like it is flying completely under the radar. There's so much talk about DJ LeMahieu being an MVP candidate and Gio Urshela being a hidden gem and Aaron Judge not pulling the ball and all sorts of other things, yet Torres and his .294/.360/.513 (127 wRC+) batting line isn't getting much attention. He's doing that as a 22-year-old at an up-the-middle position -- positions, really, since he's spent plenty of time at second and short this year -- for a World Series contender. And Gleyber is getting better too. Look at his chase rate and walk rate:

It all starts with plate discipline, and I don't necessarily mean drawing walks. Walks are a byproduct of plate discipline. The goal is getting the count in your favor and getting a good pitch to hit, and Torres is doing that more and more as this season progresses. His strikeout rate is down from last year (25.2% to 21.9%), his walk rate is up (8.7% to 9.5%), and his overall production is up as a result. It's been a while since Gleyber has gone deep -- his last home run was June 25th -- but it's not like his production slipped. In the 18 games since his last homer, Torres is hitting .328 with a .400 OBP. That'll play. There is so much great and fun stuff going on with the 2019 Yankees, but I think Torres blossoming into a bona fide star is my favorite. The kid is so good and so talented, and he's continually getting better. This is so awesome.

4. Green's new pitch (?). Great moments in reading way too much into a small sample: I think Chad Green is toying with a cutter now. I first noticed it during the Rays series last week. Here's the pitch that caught my attention:

Statcast classified that pitch as a slider, but at 89.6 mph, it would be the second hardest slider he's thrown all season, behind ... this one he threw four pitches earlier:

Hmmm. The pitch in the first GIF had 1.1 inches of horizontal movement and a 2,176 rpm spin rate. The pitch in the second GIF was at 2.3 inches and 2,284 rpm, respectively, which makes sense. The second GIF definitely looks more like a slider. That first one though? I dunno. Green's average slider has 2.5 inches of horizontal movement and a 2,258 rpm spin rate. The first GIF is well below that. It could be -- and likely is, really -- that pitch is just a sloppy slider that spun out of his hand the wrong way and still managed to go for a called strike. You'd be surprised at how many mistakes Major League pitchers make, even the good ones. Still, I can't help but wonder whether he's tinkering with a cutter. Green threw a few (three, to be exact) harder sliders with shorter break during Sunday's outing against the Rockies, and he would seem to be a good candidate for a cutter as a fastball heavy righty without a reliable breaking ball. Cutters are thrown like a regular fastball, the difference is in finger placement and pressure, so a guy like Green could pick it up quickly, in theory. I'm going to consider this a #thingtowatch. It is entirely possible, if not likely, Green just threw some bad sliders and I'm overreacting to a super duper small sample size. Maybe, though. Maybe.

5. Paxton's struggles. The season is nearly two-thirds complete and it's safe to say James Paxton has been a disappointment J.A. Happ has performed worse, but expectations were higher for Paxton, and the guy is sitting on a 4.20 ERA (3.94 FIP) through 85.2 innings. Park adjusted, he's been 10% better than average at preventing runs, which is good but not great. Each start follows a similar script: Paxton gives up a run or two in the first inning, then has to grind through each inning thereafter. I don't believe his knee is fully healthy -- remember, Paxton said he still had discomfort in the knee when he was activated -- but if you're healthy enough to take the mound, you're healthy enough to perform. You don't get graded on a curve. Paxton's 9.4% walk rate is 17th highest among the 102 pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched, and he's struggled against righties (.259/.339/.474) and lefties (.310/.348/.402!) alike. It's frustrating. Paxton can be so much better than he has been -- we saw how good he can be during that 12-strikeout game against the Red Sox earlier this year -- and yet it still feels like he's not particularly close to putting it all together either. His inability to throw strikes with his fastball is getting worse:

Paxton's fastball command stinks right now. Pay attention to how often he hits the mitt with his fastball in his next start. He locates where he wants maybe one out of every five fastballs. The poor fastball command means he's behind in the count too often, and it means he's leaving hittable mistakes out over the plate. There's no pitching to the corners. Right now, there's pitching way outside for easy takes, or pitching out over the plate. "Location. I was falling behind. I wasn’t throwing strikes with my fastball," Paxton told Ken Davidoff when asked what went wrong following Sunday's disaster start, confirming the obvious. I don't know how to fix location -- a healthy knee could be a start! -- but that is the root of the problem. Paxton can not locate his signature pitch well. Maybe I'm completely wrong and he's always pitched like this. The graph above suggests that is not the case though. Either way, the Yankees acquired Paxton to be a dominator who can pitch near the top of the rotation, and he has been anything but that. The Yankees have a great big lead in the AL East and that's awesome. Ultimately, they're going to need Paxton to be better to get to where they want to go, and that's down the Canyon of Heroes. 

6. Minor league thoughts. Outfielder Ryder Green, last year's third rounder and my No. 21 preseason prospect, is having a very nice first full pro season. He's hitting .284/.346/.526 (134 wRC+) with 15 extra-base hits (eight doubles, one triple, six homers) and an acceptable 26.0% strikeout rate (15.9% swings and misses) in 30 games with the rookie Pulaski Yankees. The inability to make consistent contact was the big knock against him going into the draft, but he's making enough contact this year, and the power is legit. He will still have to continue proving he can make contact as he climbs the ladder, of course ... Catcher Anthony Seigler has really struggled this season. Last year's first round pick is hitting .175/.328/.206 (73 wRC+) through 30 games with Low-A Charleston. His 16.7% walk rate is nice, but minor league walk rates are hard to trust, especially the further away you get from the big leagues. Josh Norris recently passed along word that the "reviews (on Seigler) have not been particularly positive on either offense or defense," which is a bummer. Seigler turned only 20 last month and catching is hard -- catchers typically take longer to develop than players at other positions because there's so much responsibility -- so it would be silly to give up on him. I was definitely hoping for a better first full pro season, however. Alas ... Righty Luis Gil has continued his meteoric rise since being acquired from the Twins in the Jake Cave trade last spring. He owns a 2.39 ERA (2.54 FIP) with 32.0% strikeouts and 11.1% walks in 83 innings with Low-A Charleston this year, and his 16.8% swing-and-miss rate is fifth highest among the 359 pitchers to throw at least 80 innings in the minors this year. Gil has reportedly made big strides with his changeup this summer. He was already the hardest thrower in the organization (routinely 98-101 mph) with a hammer high-spin curveball. Now he has that quality third pitch. Throwing strikes can still be a challenge at times, but the total package is starting to look like a potential impact starter ... Righty Trevor Stephan, my No. 13 preseason prospect, is having a disaster season. He has a 6.75 ERA (4.06 FIP) with 23.1% strikeouts and 10.0% walks in 53.1 innings split between Double-A Trenton and High-A Tampa. The Yankees demoted Stephan last month and have limited him to short 2-3 inning stints recently to try to get him on track. His unconventional delivery and lack of a reliable changeup have pointed to a future in the bullpen since his college days. It might be time to put him in relief for good ... Righty Alex Vizcaino has an inflated 4.41 ERA in 87.2 innings with Low-A Charleston this year, but he has a 27.2% strikeout rate -- remember when I said Gil has the fifth highest swing-and-miss rate in the minors? Vizcaino is fourth at 17.0% -- and a 46.3% ground ball rate. The 22-year-old has reportedly made big strides with his changeup and slider this season, and he's still in the mid-90s with his fastball. The stuff is really good and it shows up in his strikeout and swing-and-miss rates, not in his ERA. Vizcaino was a lower profile international signing in 2016 -- he signed four days before his 19th birthday, which is ancient for a Latin American amateur -- but he is now definitely a prospect on the rise. 

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