July 16th, 2019: Offense, Stroman, Ray, Severino, Chapman, 2019 Draft

Travis d'Arnaud? Seriously? The guy has been looking to hit everything the other way since the last series in Tampa, but sure, keep feeding him fastballs and breaking balls on the outer half. Sometimes I wonder how a team so smart can be so stupid. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as I wonder which three regulars will get tonight's game off.

1. Bigger than the division. This is probably something I should've written a few weeks ago. For the Yankees, the goal right now is bigger than winning the AL East. The goal is finishing with the best record in baseball, or at least the best record in the American League. The Yankees are two games behind the Dodgers for the best record in baseball and one game up on the Twins for the best record in the American League. The best record equals homefield advantage throughout the postseason, and it also means facing the Wild Card team in the ALDS. You don't have to try too hard to see a scenario in which the Twins finish with the best record in the American League, leading to a Yankees vs. Astros ALDS death match. No one wants that. Yes, the ultimate goal is winning the World Series, and finishing with the best record in baseball helps accomplish that. First things first. Gotta win the AL East and the Yankees, three straight losses to the Rays aside, are in good shape to do that. Finishing with the best record in the league should be the goal though. Don't just settle for a trip to the dance. Get homefield advantage throughout the postseason.

2. Struggling offense. Last time I praised the offense for its diversity. The Yankees sock dingers and they are the game's best hitting team with runners in scoring position and in high-leverage spots. Now the offense is struggling. I jinxed them. They're averaging 3.25 runs per game since the All-Star break and four runs per game since the London Series. Only once in their last ten games have they scored more than four runs in the first nine innings -- they had two huge extra innings against the Rays before the All-Star break -- and that was five runs during one of the Mets games. So yeah, the bats are struggling. DJ LeMahieu is hitting .225/.262/.275 (41 wRC+) in July. Gary Sanchez is hitting .091/.189/.212 (7 wRC+) in July. Didi Gregorius is hitting .176/.176/.265 (7 wRC+) in July. Luke Voit has been out of sorts since returning from the injured list. That's four-ninths of the lineup right there. Aaron Judge (140 wRC+), Aaron Hicks (184 wRC+), Gio Urshela (134 wRC+), and Brett Gardner (189 wRC+) have hit well in July, though four players does not make a lineup. Slumps happen and there's not much the Yankees can do other than wait this out (and maybe call up Clint Frazier), but damn, that doesn't make it any less frustrating to sit through, especially now during an important series with the Rays. It's up to the pitching and defense to pick up the slack until the offense gets itself back together. Losses like last night, when you're struggling to score and you get that clutch late homer, then the bullpen blows it, are a real killer.

3. Stroman's fit. All things considered, Marcus Stroman is probably the best option for the Yankees at the trade deadline. Among the rumored trade candidates (Trevor Bauer, Madison Bumgarner, etc.), I think he's most likely to give you an acceptable performance down the stretch, and he has an elite carrying tool in his ground ball ability. I don't believe Stroman is a difference-making ace, but there is no difference-making ace out there, and he's the next best thing. Something really stood out to me watching him pitch Sunday: Stroman really lives at the knees. I mean, that makes sense. He's a sinkerballer and he has to keep the ball down to get those grounders. Leave a sinker up and it flattens out into a batting practice fastball. Here is Stroman's 2019 pitch location heat map:

Okay, so Stroman pitches down in the zone. Great. So what? Well, remember what I wrote last week about Gary Sanchez's framing? Sanchez's framing has taken a big step back this season, especially on pitches down in the zone. That is possibly because he's so focused on blocking those pitches now. (For what it's worth, FanGraphs says "a couple of clubs noted that their 2019 framing figures for Sanchez are much more positive than ours.") Basically, Gary's biggest framing weakness lies where Stroman throws most of his pitches. That might make him something of a poor fit. Now, is that a dealbreaker? No, I don't think it should be. Sanchez and Stroman could work splendidly together for all we know. Maybe it means Austin Romine has to be Stroman's personal catcher. Sanchez has to rest and Romine has to catch once in a while. Every fifth day when Stroman is on the mound would be an easy way to divvy up the workload. I'm not really sure where I'm going with this. I've known Stroman is a sinker pitcher for years and that he pitches down in the zone, but it wasn't until after writing last week's post and watching him pitch this weekend that it dawned on me that hey, Stroman's style and Sanchez's framing might not be a great fit. Wouldn't stop me from trading for him! It just might be something that has to get figured out at some point.

4. Ray interest. The Yankees have Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray on their radar, reports Dan Martin. Arizona has been scouting High-A Tampa recently, which may or may not mean anything. (Estevan Florial, Dermis Garcia, Clarke Schmidt, and Miguel Yajure are among the notables on the Tarpons roster.) The D-Backs are 47-47 and only one game back of the second Wild Card spot, though GM Mike Hazen recently said the team could buy and sell at the deadline. "I think there’s opportunities to do both. I think it’s a far more complex situation, though ... I still think we have challenges in front of us long-term that we need to address. There’s a lot of guys that have 1+ years of control. I think we need to figure out what the roster is going to look like after that point," Hazen told Nick Piecoro. Ray is one of those 1+ guys. He'll be a free agent after next season. The 27-year-old has a 3.81 ERA (4.04 FIP) with 30.8% strikeouts in 111 innings this year, though his fastball isn't as fast (92.6 mph) as it once was (94.9 mph in 2016). Ray was mentioned as a trade target a few times at RAB over the years and it all comes down to walks. How willing are you to tolerate a walk rate that is consistently north of 10%? Especially now that Ray has settled in as a 1.30 HR/9 guy? Walks and dingers are a scary combination. The strikeouts are still there and that's great, but Ray has lost more than two full miles-an-hour off his fastball the last few years, and I don't think you can count on the velocity coming back. The strikeouts might not be there much longer. Among the rumored trade candidates, I have Ray behind, well, pretty much all of them. I'd rather have Trevor Bauer, Matt Boyd, Madison Bumgarner, or Marcus Stroman. Ray's not a terrible target though. Just a flawed pitcher given his walk and homer tendencies, and I suspect the asking price would be rather high. The Yankees reportedly had interest in Ray several times over the years, though my hunch is this is due diligence right now more than anything. They're keeping their options open.

5. Severino's timetable. Luis Severino was cleared to throw over the weekend and he played catch yesterday for the first time since his most recent setback. (Dellin Betances has resumed throwing as well, but I want to focus on Severino right now.) During a recent radio interview Brian Cashman said Severino would need "six weeks or more" to get ready to rejoin the Yankees, which makes sense. He has to go through Spring Training, basically. Catch, long toss, bullpen, live batting practice, simulated games, rehab games, the works. It takes time. Assuming no further setbacks -- that is a huge assumption given how things have gone to date -- the timetable seems pretty clear to me: Severino will return when rosters expand on September 1st. If that's enough time to get stretched out to 100+ pitches, great. If not, well, that's okay too. The Yankees will figure it out. They could bring Severino back as a 60-pitch starter initially and continue to stretch him out in September. Rosters will be expanded, so they'll have the extra arms to cover the innings. I think that's the plan though. Let Severino rehab at a cautious pace the next few weeks, then bring him back when rosters expand, and figure out how he helps best. Starter, reliever, whatever. Betances should, hopefully, return before September 1st because he's a pure reliever and won't need as much rehab time. Then again, he's been unable to get going at all this year, so it's tough to count on him. Same goes for Severino, really. Whatever these two give the Yankees at this point is gravy. With any luck, Severino is on the rehab trail for good now, and will be ready to join the Yankees in whatever capacity come September 1st. I would be surprised if we see him earlier this that. And, if we see him any later, it likely means something else went wrong.

6. Chapman's opt-out. Forgive me for looking ahead to the offseason for a second. During the All-Star break Aroldis Chapman was asked about his looming opt-out clause and he gave the diplomatic answer -- "Honestly, I haven’t been thinking about that at all because through these years, I’ve dealt with some injuries. So the concentration and the focus was to stay healthy this year and try to have a good season. It hasn’t even crossed my mind," he told Ken Davidoff -- though I can't imagine he'll actually use it, even as good as he's been this year overall. Consider the circumstances:

• Chapman would walk away from two years and $30M.
• The Yankees would slap the qualifying offer on him.
• Chapman will be one year older than Craig Kimbrel was last winter.

Kimbrel received a three-year deal worth $43M, though he had to wait until June, and he was a year younger than Chapman will be this winter. Plus Chapman had the knee trouble last year and the shoulder trouble the year before that. (He's been healthy this season, thankfully.) The qualifying offer changes everything. Going out into free agency and beating $30M in a timely fashion might be doable without being attached to draft pick compensation. With the qualifying offer though? Well, look what happened with Kimbrel. Chapman and his camp could try to leverage the opt-out into an extension -- they could ask for a club option with a nice buyout to be added to his existing deal -- though I'm not sure the Yankees would go for it. They might call his bluff. With free agency being what it is these days, I don't see Chapman opting out after the season, no matter how well he pitches this year. Things are too player unfriendly for an over-30 reliever to walk away from $30M and test free agency while attached to draft pick compensation. (I wrote this before last night's blown save. That game doesn't change anything.)

7. Draft signings. The 2019 draft signing deadline was last Friday and no, the Yankees did not swoop in with a last minute offer and sign 20th rounder Jack Leiter. It was never going to happen. The Yankees did sign all their picks in the top ten rounds though, the picks tied to the bonus pool, plus they added two late rounders on overslot deals. Here are all the team's picks and here are the picks tied to the bonus pool:

Every dollar over $125,000 given to a pick after the tenth round counts against the bonus pool. The Yankees exceeded their pool by 4.96% this year, so just short of the 5% threshold that would force them to give up next year's first round pick. Third straight year the Yankees spent right up to the 5% threshold. DeMarco, a draft-eligible sophomore, is this year's big late round signing. Here's what Baseball America (subs. req'd) says about the Brooklyn born and Staten Island raised outfielder:

A quad injury somewhat torpedoed his sophomore season, costing him a month. He started hitting like he had as a freshman upon his return, but both before and after the injury he has become a little too aggressive, trading plenty of strikeouts for a few home runs. He’s an above-average fielder in either corner outfield spot, but he is pretty physically maxed out right now.

The Yankees drafted DeMarco out of high school two years ago, so they must really like him. Otherwise, the Yankees played it pretty straight this year. Just the one huge overslot signing (first rounder Anthony Volpe), and they didn't even go with cheap college seniors in rounds 7-10 or whatever. Eighth rounder Zach Greene was the only significant bonus pool saving pick. Kinda weird. Not bad, necessarily, just a little unusual given how the Yankees operated the last few years. It's too late now, but there was definitely a case to be made for blowing out the draft pool this year to sign Leiter. The Yankees rarely have access to talent like that in the draft because they're always picking late in the first round. For argument's sake, let's say Leiter wanted a $5M bonus. That would've pushed the Yankees into the maximum penalty tier, which means a 100% tax on the overage (another $5M in real money) plus forfeiting their next two first round picks. Doing that for one player may not make the most sense. What about trying it with three or four guys? Jeff Passan wrote about this recently. Basically, you convince several highly regarded high school kids to float huge bonus demands, huge enough to scare teams away, then draft them late and pay them. Yeah, you have to give up two future first round picks, but you get more talent now. It's a similar idea to what the Yankees did with the 2014-15 international spending spree. Spend a ton and get the talent now, and punt the next two drafts. Fun idea, but it's not happening anytime soon. The Yankees got all their draft pool picks signed this year plus a few late rounders on overslot deals. Business as usual.

8. Stealing first base. As part of their rule change experiment agreement with MLB, the independent Atlantic League implemented a series of rule changes last week, including allowing the hitter to "steal" first base. The rule essentially expands the dropped third strike rule to all counts. The catcher lets the first pitch fastball go to the backstop? The batter is allowed to take first base. It already happened once. Here's video. Maybe I'm a weirdo, but I dig this rule. It is bound to create some headaches -- what qualifies as an attempt to first base? is it a force play? can there be a rundown between home and first? how is it scored? -- but I like it. Make the defense secure the baseball. If the catcher gets lazy and doesn't catch a pitch early in the count, the offense should be allowed to take advantage. I can't say I ever expect to see this in the big leagues, but I find it less crazy, than some of the other rule change ideas being thrown out there (moving the mound back, automated strike zone, etc.). 

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