July 12th, 2019: Offense, Defense, Sanchez, Foltynewicz, Encarnacion, Tanaka, King, Minors, Mailbag

The All-Star break is over and the second half of the 2019 regular season begins tonight. The Yankees will play 74 games in the next 80 days and they begin the second half with an eight-game lead in the loss column in the AL East. Pretty good. Pretty, pretty good. Here are today's thoughts as I wonder what I have to do to be graded on the Austin Romine curve.

1. The best possible offense. Offensively, the Yankees have something for everyone this season. They are averaging 5.72 runs per game, the most in baseball, and they're top six in AVG (sixth at .265), OBP (fourth at .340), SLG (fourth at .464), and wRC+ (fourth at 111). Furthermore:

• Home runs: 149 (fourth)
• Strikeout rate: 23.1% (16th)
• AVG/OBP/SLG with RISP: .302/.378/.515 (1st/1st/2nd)
• AVG/OBP/SLG in high-leverage: .335/.428/.524 (1st/1st/2nd)

The Yankees don't just lead baseball in AVG and OBP in high-leverage spots. They have a 22-point edge in AVG (White Sox are second at .313) and a 53-point (!) edge in OBP (Angels are second at .375). The Yankees hit a ton of home runs, yet they score more runs on non-homers (51.9%) than on homers (48.1%), and their team strikeout rate is almost exactly league average. Power without excessive strikeouts, and outrageously good numbers in clutch situations. The best of both worlds. The one thing the Yankees don't really do is steal bases. They've stolen only 35 bases this year, 19th most in baseball, so the stolen base is not a big part of their game. That's fine. Otherwise, this is close to the perfect offense. The Yankees can beat you with the long ball, they can beat you with singles with men on base, and they can beat you one through nine in the lineup. All those complaints about the Yankees being too one-dimensional in recent years? They most certainly do not apply in 2019.

2. Improved infield defense? Coming into the season the Yankees were set to field a below-average infield defense. Miguel Andujar's issues at third base are well-documented. Gleyber Torres is prone to slip-ups at second base. The reanimated corpse of Troy Tulowitzki was going to play short. That group did not inspire much confidence with the glove. Andujar's injury opened the door for Gio Urshela and Tulowitzki's injury -- so we're all just gonna look the other way after Tulowitzki quit his rehab and went home last month, huh? cool, just checking -- opened the door for DJ LeMahieu to play every single day, and push Torres to his more natural position (shortstop). Now Didi Gregorius is back as well. The infield defense has seemed very good this year, at least to me. And yet, the numbers disagree. To wit:

2018 infield DRS: -20 (eighth worst)
2019 infield DRS: -18 (fifth worst)

2018 BABIP on ground balls: .260 (fifth highest)
2019 BABIP on ground balls: .257 (fifth highest)

Hmmm. Defensive Runs Saved is telling us the infield has blown nearly as many runs through 88 games this year as it did through 162 games last year despite Urshela taking Andujar's spot and LeMahieu joining the team. I don't get it. As for the BABIP on ground balls, there's much more that goes into that than personnel. Shifting matters, quality of contact allowed matters. In the big picture, the difference between this year's infield and last year's infield is three hits saved hits per 1,000 ground balls, which isn't anything to celebrate. Defensive stats, man. Can't trust 'em, can't analyze baseball without 'em. My eyes tell me the Yankees currently have their best infield defense since ... I honestly don't know when. Since 2009? Even then Alex Rodriguez was hobbled post-hip surgery. The numbers indicate the infield defense is not as good -- not nearly as good -- as the eye test would lead you to believe. I'm comfortably chalking this up to defensive stats being a work in progress. I think the Yankees have at worst a rock solid infield defense and at best one of the most reliable infield defenses in the game. Considering the infield defense they were supposed to field coming into the season, this is a huge upgrade. I just wish it didn't take an injury to Andujar to happen.

3. Sanchez's framing. Folks, I don't love the current status of Gary Sanchez's defense. He has improved his blocking tremendously this year -- Gary has gone from one passed pitch every 10.4 innings last year to one every 21.0 innings this year (MLB average is one every 21.2 innings) -- but it has come at the expense of his pitch-framing. Some numbers:

• 2018: +3.3 framing runs and 49.9% strike rate in 653 innings
• 2019: -6.7 framing runs and 47.1% strike rate in 482.1 innings

Sanchez was an above-average pitch-framer last year and now he's among the worst in the league. Stealing those extra strikes is more important than blocking that one extra pitch in the dirt every few games. There is a correlation here too. There's been research showing the best framers tend to be the worst blockers and vice versa. I'm not barking up a made-up tree here. Statcast data shows Sanchez's framing has declined almost exclusively on pitches down in the zone. Here is how Statcast labels its framing zones (catcher's view): 

Now here are Sanchez's called strike rates for those three zones:

• Zone 17: 32.6% in 2018 vs. 24.1% in 2019 (34.5% league average)
• Zone 18: 47.3% in 2018 vs. 42.6% in 2019 (50.7% league average)
• Zone 19: 27.8% in 2018 vs. 26.1% in 2019 (26.3% league average)

That is: bad. That's bad. Sanchez is not getting his pitchers those strikes at the bottom of the zone, and intuitively, that makes sense. He's not focusing on framing pitches down in the zone because he's worried about blocking pitches down in the zone. I suppose the good news is the Yankees seem aware of Gary's framing issues and are working on them. "(Framing is) probably the main area of focus in his receiving work. That’s a part of the strike zone where how catchers catch the ball influences the umpire’s call more than other places around the zone. Generally speaking, most bigger catchers have more of a challenge at the bottom of the zone," catching coach Jason Brown told Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd). Blocking is maybe the most visible part of catching but it is also the least impactful part of catching. Baseball Prospectus says the best blocking catcher last year was Tucker Barnhart at +3.6 runs. No one else was over +2.3 runs. Twenty-one catchers provided at least +3.6 runs of value with their framing. I'm glad Gary has improved his blocking. Truly, I am. I just wish it didn't come at the expense of his framing. Sanchez may look improved defensively this year, but he is actually providing far less value with his glove.

4. Targeting Foltynewicz. I keep digging through depth charts looking for possible trade candidates who haven't been mentioned elsewhere, and the other day I stumbled upon Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz was an All-Star last year (2.85 ERA and 3.37 FIP) and he started Opening Day for the Braves this year, though he's battled elbow soreness and general ineffectiveness, and is currently in Triple-A. He had a 6.37 ERA (6.11 FIP) with a 19.2% strikeout rate and a 34.6% ground ball rate in 59.1 innings before being demoted. Last year it was a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 43.1% ground ball rate. The numbers on Foltynewicz's stuff have worsened:

Velocity and spin are down across the board, leading to fewer empty swings on the four-seamer and slider, and fewer grounders on the sinker. That said, it's not like Foltynewicz is out there chucking 88 mph fastballs now. There's still plenty of power behind his stuff, which is hopefully an indication that elbow issue earlier this year was truly minor. A few things about Foltynewicz. One, the Yankees have had interest in him in the past. They reportedly asked for him (and Ender Inciarte) during Brian McCann trade talks during the 2016-17 offseason, so there's been interest here. Two, obviously the medicals would have to check out to agree to a deal. My hope would be to buy low on a talented pitcher who got hurt and struggled this year, but, if he's not healthy, that's no good. Three, Foltynewicz is under team control through 2021, so he's a multi-year pickup. (There was no service time component to his demotion. He's already spent too much time in the big leagues this year to delay free agency.) Four, why would the Braves trade him? Atlanta is contending too, and in fact they're said to be seeking another starting pitcher themselves, even after signing Dallas Keuchel. I guess my thinking is the Braves are so deep in young starters that they could trade one or two to address needs elsewhere. Foltynewicz, as the injured dude with only two years of control, could be the odd man out. And five, what would the Braves want to in return? This is tough to answer. Like I said, they're still looking for another starting pitcher, so the Yankees can't help them there, unless they're interested in a J.A. Happ for Foltynewicz swap. I wouldn't hold my breath. The Braves could use bullpen help too. Is there a Chad Green for Foltynewicz trade to be made? What about Zack Britton for Foltynewicz? Would Atlanta bite on that? Probably not given the money. Without knowing what the medicals look like -- for what it's worth, Foltynewicz has allowed 18 runs in 30.1 innings since being demoted to Triple-A -- it's hard to see how the Yankees could target Foltynewicz as their big starting rotation upgrade at the deadline. It's a decent idea in a vacuum if the Braves are willing to sell low. This isn't a vacuum though, and the Yankees need more reliability than the current version of Foltynewicz can provide. Alas.

5. Encarnacion's slump. Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .123/.208/.338 (40 wRC+) in 72 plate appearances as a Yankee. He's been worse than Kendrys Morales (.177/.320/.242 and 62 wRC+ in 75 plate appearances), which is kinda hard to believe. I'm not overly concerned with Encarnacion though. He looks like a hitter who's caught in-between at the moment. Late on fastballs, early on breaking balls, etc. His strikeout rate with the Yankees is sitting at 31.9%, way up from his usual 20% or so, though much of that is tied up in one eight-game stretch in which he struck out 16 times. Encarnacion came to the Yankees will a .241/.356/.531 (137 wRC+) batting line and the league lead in home runs. It's not like we have to look back far to see the last time he was productive. I suppose age-related decline could've set in seemingly overnight, Encarnacion is 36 after all, but I think we're a long way from saying that. It's been 16 games and 72 plate appearances! Guys have 16-game slumps all the time. Encarnacion's track record is very strong and he was mashing with the Mariners earlier this year. I believe it's only a matter of time until he goes back to being a very productive player. Hopefully Encarnacion was able to catch his breath a bit during the All-Star break. It's been a busy few weeks for him. The power's still there though, and I think he'll be back to terrorizing pitchers in no time.

6. Tanaka's splitter. The All-Star break was dominated by talk about changes to the baseball, and while Masahiro Tanaka stopped short of pulling a Justin Verlander and complaining the ball is juiced, he did say the ball feels different. "Probably the right word to say is, it just doesn’t feel right. Feels like the ball is a little bit harder and it feels like the seams are a little bit lower," he told Brendan Kuty through his interpreter. Tanaka has had problems with his trademark splitter all year -- that he's managed a 3.86 ERA (4.24 FIP), including a 3.36 ERA (4.01 FIP) outside London, without his Grade-A splitter is a testament to his craftiness -- and I've kinda sorta wondered whether the ball could be to blame. Now Tanaka says the seams are lower, lending some credence to that theory. Here is his splitter movement:

Sorry that's tough to read. The graphs show that last year, Tanaka's splitter had more movement down and less movement in on righties/away from lefties. This year the splitter is not moving down as much and is moving in on righties/away from lefties more. In English, the splitter isn't tumbling down and out of the zone. It's going side-to-side. That matches the eye test. If the current baseball is to blame -- again, that is just my theory -- can Tanaka adjust? It might not be possible with the current baseball. The ball's physical characteristics may not make it possible. Tanaka's had trouble with the splitter all year, and he's so smart and savvy that I feel like if he were going to figure it out, he would've figured it out already. As is, Tanaka's been pretty good this year. With any luck, something will click in the second half and his trademark splitter will come all the way back.

7. King returns. Mike King, the most MLB ready pitching prospect in the organization coming into the season, made his 2019 debut yesterday. He threw a 1-2-3 inning with one strikeout in the rookie Gulf Coast League. King went down with a stress reaction in his elbow in Spring Training and suffered a setback in April, and now he's finally on his way back. The timing of the injury really could not have been worse for King. Had he been healthy, it likely would've been him making those starts rather than Chad Green as an opener, or at the very least King could've followed Green out of the bullpen rather than Nestor Cortes. That's a bummer for him. The good news is he's healthy and on his way back. Can the Yankees count on King to solve their rotation woes in the second half? Goodness no. It was unclear whether he could be a viable MLB starter before the injury. After? Who knows. That doesn't mean he can't help the Yankees or won't get a chance to help the Yankees. It just means the team can't scale back on its pitching search because King threw a scoreless inning in rookie ball. Whatever he gives them is a bonus. Now, on the other side of the coin, King being healthy does improve his trade value leading up to July 31st. I am certain there were teams out there interested in buying low on him while he was hurt, but the Yankees wouldn't do that. Now that he's healthy though, perhaps he can be the second or third piece in a trade package to get an MLB arm for the World Series push. I'm not sure King could've been that while injured. Point is, healthy prospects are better than injured prospects, and King is currently rehabbing his way from injured prospect to healthy prospect, and that's nothing but good news. Maybe he helps as a trade chip, maybe he helps in the rotation, maybe he doesn't help until next year. Whatever it is, at least now King is back on the radar.

8. Minor league offense. I missed this while I was in the hospital, but holy cow, the Dominican Summer League Yankees scored 38 runs in a game last week! Here's the box score. It is believed to be the most runs scored in a game in a minor league history. Every player in the DSL Yanks lineup had multiple hits, and that includes the two guys who came off the bench in the middle innings. Pretty wild. Speaking of offense:

• 2018 Triple-A Scranton: .256/.322/.407 with 132 homers in 138 games
• 2019 Triple-A Scranton: .278/.351/.492 with 141 homers in 90 games

Personnel is of course going to play a part in that -- the RailRiders had big league veterans like Brad Miller and Logan Morrison come through this year -- but, for the most part, that is the MLB ball in action right there. Triple-A adopted the MLB ball this year and offense is way up at the level, both in the International League and Pacific Coast League. Between their hitter friendly home ballpark and playing (somewhat) at altitude and the MLB ball, the El Paso Chihuahuas (Padres) are hitting .297/.357/.550 (!) as a team this year. Wild. I'm curious to see how young Deivi Garcia handles himself in Triple-A given the MLB ball and the fact he's going to face the most advanced hitters he's ever seen. I suspect he'll be a-okay because his stuff is so good and he misses so many bats, limiting the opportunities for damage. That said, Garcia has allowed seven homers in 142.2 innings since Opening Day 2018. I don't think it would be surprising (or worrisome) to see him match that total between now and the end of the season. The DSL squad scored 38 runs in a game last week and the ball is flying in Triple-A. Minor league numbers always had to be taken with a giant grain of salt. That is more true now than ever.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Juan asks: Now that Cervelli's catching career is over, will the Yankees look back on him as someone who got away or does Chad Green make it all worthwhile? They never gave Cervelli much playing time (when he was healthy) and they never treated him like a potential future starter. But when he went to Pittsburgh he had a few pretty solid seasons. Would the Yankees have been better off keeping him than trading him?  

A few days ago Francisco Cervelli announced he giving up catching. He suffered another concussion earlier this season and that's it, he can't do it anymore. It's too dangerous. Unless he learns to play other positions adequately (first? third? second? left and right?), this might be the end of his playing career.

When the Yankees traded Cervelli in November 2014, they traded him with two years of control (I thought it was one year, but apparently it was two). The Pirates later signed him to an extension and kept him, but that has nothing to do with the Yankees. The Yankees had Brian McCann and John Ryan Murphy at the time, and Gary Sanchez coming.

Cervelli hit .282/.373/.368 with +4.7 WAR in the two years of control the Yankees traded away, which is really good! In return, the Yankees acquired four years of Justin Wilson, but only kept him for one. He had a 3.10 ERA (2.69 FIP) and +0.9 WAR that one year. The Yankees then turned Wilson into six years each of Chad Green and Luis Cessa, and:

• Green: +4.9 WAR (and counting)
• Cessa: +0.8 WAR (and counting)

Add it all up and the Pirates received +4.7 WAR through the trade while the Yankees have received +6.6 WAR and counting. And remember, Cervelli was never going to be anything more than McCann's backup with the Yankees. They had a player with good but limited value, and turned into him into multiple very good relief seasons. I'm totally cool with that.

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