July 8th, 2019: London, Garcia, LeMahieu, Severino, Wheeler, Bullpen, Frazier, International Free Agents

Missing more time than expected after going down with a fairly routine medical issue qualifies me as a true 2019 Yankee, right? Things are (mostly) back to normal following my complicated appendectomy, fortunately. The Yankees are 57-31 (.648) with an eight-game lead in the loss column in the AL East. Pretty great. We've got a lot of catching up to do, so here are today's thoughts as I wonder why Chad Green can't throw a slider like this all the time.

1. London thoughts. Overall, I thought the London Series was really freakin' cool, especially because the Yankees swept the two games. That was extra sweet after the two broadcast crews spent their games saying the series could be a #turningpoint for the Red Sox. I will say I was looking forward to watching normal baseball after those two arena baseball games. I love offense, scoring runs is rad, but those two games went a little overboard. Imagine if those were the first two baseball games you watched in your life? To us, it was shocking, because there was so much offense. If you had never been exposed to baseball and went into those games with no idea what to expect though, all that action was probably pretty cool. The turf played very fast. Whenever a ground ball was hit, the ball would either be already at the infielder or in the outfield for a hit by time the broadcast switched from the pitching camera angle to the fielding camera angle. Fun series though. Fun because the Yankees swept, fun because we got to see something that had never been done before, and fun because it broke up the monotony of June. I hope the Yankees go on more overseas trips in the coming years. That was pretty cool.

2. Favorable schedule. Although the London trip was an unusual twist, the Yankees had a very favorable first half schedule from a travel and off-day standpoint. They are 18 games into a 28-game stretch in which they will play 22 games in New York (plus the two in London and four in Tampa), and they played 88 games in 102 days in the first half. Starting Friday, the Yankees will play 74 games in 80 days to close out the season. The good news is the Yankees took advantage of that favorable first half schedule and built a nice division lead, and they did it despite all those injuries. The bad news is they will have way fewer off-days in the second half. The travel doesn't necessarily get tougher -- the Yankees do have a nine-game West Coast trip in late-August -- but there are fewer built-in off-days for rest, which is always inconvenient. With such a deep roster, the Yankees are in better position to rest players and deal with the lack of team off-days than most clubs. Not really sure what I'm getting at here. Just pointing out that, to date, the Yankees have had it pretty good as far as the schedule goes. That'll change starting Friday.

3. Rest rest rest. On that note, I thought the Yankees went overboard with rest during the Rays series. That four-game series was a chance to bury Tampa and create even more separation in the AL East race. Instead, the Yankees and Aaron Boone took their foot off the gas a little bit, and it (might've) cost them the last two games. Look who sat:

• Thursday: Aaron Judge
• Friday: Aaron Hicks and Gary Sanchez
• Saturday: Didi Gregorius
• Sunday: DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres

Was it really necessary to sit LeMahieu and Torres the day before the All-Star break? I know they're going to play in the All-Star Game this week, but couldn't they instead rest this Friday against the crummy Blue Jays rather than during a very important game with the Rays? I appreciate that the Yankees look at the big picture and do what they can to make sure their players will be in good physical shape come August and September. Just seemed to me that the series in Tampa was a big one, one of those "we rest guys all year to make sure we have them available for this series" series. I get sitting Sanchez because he's a catcher and there was the whole day game after a night game thing. Otherwise, I thought there was a disappointing lack of urgency that series. That felt like one where the best players should've been on the field all series, especially with the built-in rest of the All-Star break coming up. "Just feel like both those guys needed a day. These are guys that we have leaned on heavily. We have been through a really tough stretch of games, going to London. Part of the way we are built is part of our depth. Time and time again we have rested guys and the guys that go in there are not only capable but have played a role in us winning ballgames," Aaron Boone told George King about sitting LeMahieu and Torres on Sunday.

4. Futures Game. Deivi Garcia showed the goods at the Futures Game last night, striking out one in a perfect 14-pitch first inning for the American League team. Here's the video. I didn't see any changeups there, but Garcia definitely threw his fastball and curveball (duh), as well as the new slider he added this season. Here's what Keith Law (subs. req'd) said about the outing:

He was 93-96 on the fastball (he's more 90-96 as a starter) with a new slider that I think is going to give him a fourth average-or-better pitch. 

Deivi does not have that huge upper-90s velocity like, say, Luis Severino, but look how hitters react to his fastball in the video. They swing like it's 100 mph. Deception, spin rate, respect for the breaking ball ... whatever it is, something allows that fastball to play up. Statcast had Garcia's curveball spin rate in the 2,650 rpm to 2,750 rpm range, which is well-above-average but not truly elite. That said, he threw only three curveballs in the Futures Game, so I wouldn't sweat degrees of excellence based on that. The Yankees promoted Deivi to Triple-A Scranton following the Futures Game -- he turned 20 in May and had a 3.00 ERA (2.18 FIP) with 37.3% strikeouts in ten starts and 51 innings for Double-A Trenton while being more than four years younger than the average Eastern League player -- and, like I said in a recent post, I want the kid in the big leagues before he hits his innings limit. There's no sense in wasting this stuff in the minors. Deivi will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, so he has to go on the 40-man roster anyway. Call him up and let him blow dudes away out of the bullpen with his final few innings. The Yankees are a serious World Series contender and they should have their best and most talented players on the big league roster. Garcia has one of the best arms in the organization and he should be given a chance to help out later this year. The kid is very good and also very fun. What a joy to watch.

5. French for The Mahieu. Never before has the Yankees corner of the internet been so collectively wrong about something as it was about the DJ LeMahieu signing. I'd put the ratio of people who hated (or were just underwhelmed by) the signing to people who loved the signing at, like, 9:1. Maybe even 19:1. Or 49:1! The general reaction was not positive. I know that much. LeMahieu took a .336/.383/.518 (138 wRC+) overall batting line into the All-Star break and his .468 batting average with runners in scoring position is a) the highest in baseball by 19 points, and b) insane. I doubt LeMahieu will hit .468 with runners in scoring position all year, that seems impossible, but doing it for even half-a-season is bonkers. "I just feel locked in," LeMahieu told Erik Boland last week about his season to date. Okie dokie. During a pregame show recently Jack Curry suggested the Yankees should approach LeMahieu about an extension, and while I'm not there just yet -- he's under contract through next season and the guy has all the leverage right now, I don't see the harm in waiting a bit -- I will say LeMahieu is having one of those special seasons that pretty much every World Series champion has on their roster. He's having a 1998 Scott Brosius type of season in that he was expected to be a solid complementary piece and instead he's the star of the show. (Brosius wasn't really the star of that team, but you know what I mean.) To win the World Series, you not only need to have great players, you need to have great players performing at their best, and all at the same time. LeMahieu is certainly doing that now. So are Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Gary Sanchez. The stars, they are alignin'.

6. Severino setback. In one of the final RAB thoughts posts, I noted lat strains can be season killers, and it sure looks like Luis Severino is heading in that direction. The Yankees finally admitted Severino had a setback last weekend -- I say finally because Severino weirdly scaled back on his throwing last month rather than ramp it up, so it was obvious something wasn't right -- with Brian Cashman saying the lat is 90% healed and Severino won't throw again until he is 100%. "Clearly he should not have started his throwing program," Cashman told Joel Sherman, adding that "in hindsight" they should've sent Severino for tests to confirm his healing progress before letting him begin his throwing program. That is not something a general manager should ever say about an injured player! Let alone his 25-year-old ace, the one who signed a $40M extension four months ago. Between this Severino business, and James Paxton being brought back while still feeling discomfort in his knee, and Giancarlo Stanton going from day-to-day with a bruise to being out until August with a ligament sprain in the span of six hours, it sure seems like the Yankees are mismanaging the hell out of their injuries. I mean, Cashman saying Severino should not have started a throwing program is an admission of mismanagement. The best case scenario is what, Severino returns in late August or September now? Maybe the Yankees should bring him back as a reliever rather than spend all that time stretching him out to start? That might be the best way to maximize his contributions this year. Pitchers get hurt. It's the nature of the beast. That the Yankees are mismanaging things -- again, Cashman admitted it! -- only makes it worse. This shouldn't happen. Not with the most prized arm in the organization. Not with any arm, really. The 2019 Yankees feel very special. This team can do big things. I really hope their injury mismanagement doesn't prevent them from achieving their ultimate goal. That is a legitimate concern right now.

7. Targeting Wheeler. I have talked myself into Zack Wheeler being the best starting pitcher trade target. Max Scherzer isn't actually available, probably not Mike Minor either, and Trevor Bauer is a turd. Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman, and Matt Boyd are just so underwhelming. So is Wheeler, really. He took a 4.69 ERA (3.65 FIP) into the All-Star break with good strikeout (25.6%) and walk (6.7%) rates. His 1.21 HR/9 is nearly double last year's 0.69 HR/9 -- his 0.52 HR/9 increase is the 12th largest year-to-year increase in baseball -- which is an obvious concern. The juiced ball/launch angle revolution has not been kind to Wheeler. That all said, man, the under-the-hood numbers are good. Here is Wheeler's stuff with MLB averages in parenthesis: 

Given what they did with Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole, I feel like the Astros will pick up Wheeler at the deadline, and turn him into an ace by convincing him to throw fewer sinkers and more elevated four-seamers. He certainly has the velocity and spin to pitch up in the zone. Wheeler is a former elite prospect who's been slowed by injuries, not a lack of stuff, and he's been healthy since the start of last season. His 301.1 innings since Opening Day 2018 are 11th most in baseball, and he will be a free agent after the season, so you're not assuming long-term risk. It looks to me that there's some upside with Wheeler. With Bumgarner, you're kinda hoping he can be what he once was for a few weeks, and there's no real basis for that other than crossed fingers. Stroman missed his last start with an injury, and even if it's a minor pectoral injury as reported, it's still an injury right before the deadline, and that's a red flag. Boyd has crashed hard the last few weeks (24 runs in his last six starts and 34.1 innings). I dunno. There are so few obvious high-end starting pitcher trade candidates right now. Wheeler's stuff is top notch and we have 300-something innings since last year telling us he's at least league average with the potential to be much more. Could the Yankees actually get Wheeler? I'll need to see a big Yankees-Mets trade to believe it -- the Wilpons wouldn't even sign off on a Neil Walker or Jay Bruce salary dump two years ago -- but I guess it's not impossible. Among all the underwhelming trade targets, I like Wheeler the best.

8. Bullpen targets. I am no longer in the "yeah, another reliever wouldn't hurt" camp. I am in the "the Yankees definitely need another reliever" camp. They rely on their bullpen so very much and are at risk of overworking their key guys during the summer, and thus limiting their effectiveness in September and October. Jonathan Holder hasn't been good since his demotion to Triple-A (four runs and ten baserunners in five innings) and the Yankees can't count on Dellin Betances coming back and being effective at this point. Anything he gives them is a bonus. Luis Cessa, Nestor Cortes, and David Hale are all in the bullpen right now and those are three spots that can be upgraded, as far as I'm concerned. Does that mean the Yankees should go get three relievers? No. I'm just saying there is room for improvement. I love the idea of Liam Hendriks, though he might not actually be available seeing how the Athletics are still in the race. He's having a phenomenal year, he has experience in every role (including opener), and he's under team control next season as well. Daniel Hudson is having a nice enough year with the Blue Jays and they'd probably give him away for salary relief, and he fits the Yankees as a velocity/spin rate guy. I mentioned Zack Wheeler as a trade target earlier. Could that deal be expanded to include curveball specialist Seth Lugo as well? The Yankees don't necessarily need another top high-leverage reliever like Will Smith or Ken Giles or Kirby Yates. Just someone who can better support the regular high-leverage guys when necessary. Point is, I don't believe the Yankees can continue to lean on their bullpen this much without coming to regret it in October. They need to scale back on these dudes at some point, and the sooner that happens, the better things will be long-term.

9. Frazier's status. Sure seems to me Clint Frazier has entered Jesus Montero/Justus Sheffield territory, and by that I mean he's a highly regarded young player the Yankees continually praise, yet continue to keep at arm's length. (His call-up earlier this year was an injury emergency thing.) Montero spent 2011 repeating Triple-A while the wholly ineffective Jorge Posada received DH at-bats. Sheffield spent last year in Triple-A even though there were opportunities to bring him up (as a starter or reliever) throughout the summer. Now Frazier sits in Triple-A while Mike Tauchman starts three of four games against the Rays this past weekend. There were so many at-bats available for Frazier last week and there will continue to be at-bats for him going forward because Giancarlo Stanton is down. In a way, this Frazier business is worse than the Montero and Sheffield situations, because neither Montero nor Sheffield had MLB success like Clint. This dude hit .283/.330/.513 (117 wRC+) in over 200 plate appearances earlier this year. Usually teams try to keep the 24-year-old former top notch prospect in the lineup when he does that. Instead, Mike Tauchman. I can't help but feel like Frazier is a goner. I don't believe the Yankees will give him away -- they traded Montero and Sheffield for high-end MLB pitchers with multiple years of control, remember -- but they sure as heck aren't acting like he's part of the plan going forward. Actions speak louder than words. The Yankees can praise Clint and say he's part of the future as much as they want. If that were true, he'd be in the show right now. The Yankees have a pretty good track record when it comes to knowing who to keep and who to trade, but still, what a bummer.

10. International signings. The 2019-20 international signing period opened last week, right as I was getting my appendix removed, and the Yankees did indeed sign Dominican wunderkind Jasson Dominguez. The signing was officially announced. Jeff Passan wrote a glowing profile on Dominguez recently -- "I know this sounds crazy, but he's like (Mike) Trout. And Trout wasn't close to this good when he was 16," one general manager told Passan -- and Keith Law (subs. req'd) reined in the hype a bit. Here's his report:

He has a very fast bat and a good left-handed swing, and he's very strong already, with wide shoulders and plenty of muscle. He's a plus-plus runner with a plus arm and plus power now, and unlike many players in the July 2 market, he has performed against decent competition, so he's more than just a set of tools and some crossed fingers. He's 5-foot-10 at most, and there's no physical projection left; everyone described him as "maxed out" or questioned if he was even too jacked up already. He's a center fielder now with uncertainty if he'll stay there.

The knock on Dominguez is that he's in too good of shape, basically. The tools are great but he might not get much stronger than he already is now. Big deal. I'll bet on tools over physicality all day, every day. The Yankees landed the signing period's top prospect plus several others as well. The known bonus numbers:

• Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez: $5M (per Jesse Sanchez)
• Dominican OF Jhon Diaz: $1.2M (per Jesse Sanchez)

"Among his biggest assets are his approach at the plate and his good bat speed through the strike zone. He consistently makes hard contact and he drives the ball to all fields ... On defense, he has the potential to be an above-average center fielder with an above-average arm. He already plays with confidence and performs well in games," says MLB.com's write-up on Diaz. I should note the Yankees have not yet officially announced the Diaz signing. The Dominguez signing is official. Not Diaz though. Why? Do the math: $5M + $1.2M = $6.2M. New York's bonus pool this year: $5.4M. The Yankees have to acquire another $800,000 in pool money before they can finalize the Diaz signing. More than that, really, because they announced several other (presumably smaller) signings last week (including dudes named Jesus Bravo and Felixander Severino). The Yankees can max out their bonus pool at $8.6M this year and I expect them to do exactly that. They maxed out their pool the last two signing periods. No reason to think they won't do it again. There's a single July 31st trade deadline now, so in addition to adding pitching help, the Yankees have to get their bonus pool situation in order this month as well. Either that or they'll have to wait until the offseason to add more bonus pool money, which puts them at risk of losing prospects to other teams. In the hard cap era, Dominguez alone makes this an A+ international haul for the Yankees. Once they get Diaz signed and a few others as well, it'll be even better. I know it'll take years for these dudes to show up on top 100 prospect lists, nevermind reach the big leagues, but this is where the process starts. The open of the 2019-20 signing period last Tuesday was a good day for the Yankees.

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