June 21st, 2019: Judge, Bullpen, Maybin, Scherzer, Montgomery, All-Stars, Minors

Folks, I am officially declaring the 2019 Yankees: Fun as hell. This team is crazy fun. The offense is going to annihilate mediocre pitching and grind down good pitching, and the pitching staff has turned things around following that recent rough patch. A season best 4.5-game lead in the AL East has a way of making a man get excited about things. Here are today's thoughts.

1. Judge's return. The Yankees have scored 49 runs and hit 13 home runs in their last six games, and they'll add one of the best players in baseball to the lineup Friday night. Aaron Judge is finally set to rejoin the team after spending two months and one day on the injured list with an oblique strain. "Those guys are rolling up there, so I don't know if I can crack that lineup. We'll see. We'll see," Judge jokingly told Conor Foley after his final rehab game. I wrote a thing at CBS yesterday about possible lineups with Judge. Here's what I hope the Yankees and Aaron Boone will do while fully understanding it almost certainly won't happen:

1. RF Aaron Judge
2. 1B Luke Voit
3. C Gary Sanchez
4. LF Giancarlo Stanton
5. DH Edwin Encarnacion
6. 3B DJ LeMahieu
7. SS Didi Gregorius
8. 2B Gleyber Torres
9. CF Aaron Hicks ("second" leadoff guy)

You could put Voit, Sanchez, Stanton, and Encarnacion in pretty much any order in the 2-3-4-5 spots and I wouldn't argue much. Voit has the highest OBP of the bunch (by a lot), so he should probably bat before the other power guys. Anyway, the Yankees have so much power right now that they don't need Judge in the middle of the order to drive in runs. Their lineup depth allows them to bat Judge atop the order to get him the most at-bats. The Yankees' leadoff spot only has 12 more plate appearances than the No. 2 spot so far this year, but, in one individual game, getting that Judge that one extra at-bat in the ninth inning could be enormous. Yeah, he'll have some multi-run homers turn into solo homers at the leadoff spot, but I think whatever the Yankees lose there will be more than made up through the extra plate appearances. Reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts hit 30 homers and was a top three hitter in baseball last year, and he did it from the leadoff spot. George Springer has been mashing taters from the leadoff spot for a few years now, including during his 2017 World Series MVP performance. Unconventional? Sure, but I see nothing wrong with putting a dude like Judge in the leadoff spot. Let the big man eat. As for six right-handed batters stacked atop the lineup, who cares? As noted in my CBS post, Judge, Voit, Stanton, and Encarnacion have been four of the 16 best right-on-right hitters in baseball since Opening Day 2017. These aren't normal righty hitters. These dudes are special cases. No need to force a lefty bat in there to mix things up. I'll take my chances with those righty bats against any righty pitcher, thank you very much. That's my two cents on the lineup. No matter how the Yankees and Boone order things, there won't be a single soft landing spots for pitchers. One through nine, the lineup will be a terror.

2. Roster move. Following last night's game the Yankees optioned Nestor Cortes to Triple-A to clear a roster spot for Aaron Judge, so Cameron Maybin stays. The Yankees had to keep him. Maybin's been too good to cast aside, even for a guy like Judge. David Hale threw 65 pitches last night, his most since May 9th (he averaged 37 pitches in his previous eight appearances), and I thought that was an indication he would get dropped from the roster for Judge. Max out the 31-year-old journeyman before cutting him, you know? Harsh, but that's the business. Instead, Hale stays, and the Yankees go to a seven-man bullpen and a four-man bench. Amazing. Never thought we'd see it again. Thanks to the London trip and the All-Star break, the Yankees will play only 14 games in the next 21 days. The bullpen has plenty of built-in rest coming. And, if things go haywire and the Yankees find themselves short on arms, they'll shuttle guys in and out, and adjust as necessary. I think the seven-man bullpen and four-man bench arrangement is very temporary. The Yankees can swing it the next few weeks. After that? I expect the roster construction to change once they get into that 17 games in 17 days stretch immediately after the All-Star break. I'm glad Maybin is staying and I'm sure we're going to see Cortes again this season. He's fun to watch with his different arm angles and moxie, and he's done a nice job following Green in the opener games. The seven-man bullpen and four-man bench may only be temporary, but, as longtime RAB readers have heard me say many times, these things have a way of working themselves out. The Yankees were able to buy themselves some time without sacrificing depth, so thumbs up.

3. Maybin's swing. Cameron Maybin recently had a four-game home run streak, a new career best, and he's currently hitting .308/.386/.496 (137 wRC+). A few days ago Maybin told Coley Harvey the Yankees have encouraged him to be himself and focus on putting his best swing on the ball. "Throughout the years, a lot of people kind of, I feel like, limited me to just doing one thing: Put the ball on the ground, hit the ball on the ground, use your speed. (The Yankees) are like, 'You're 6-4, 210-215 (lbs.), you've got a lot of pop. Trust it," he said. Given that comment and the results, this graph shouldn't surprise you:

In his age 32 season, Maybin is hitting the ball harder than at any other point in his career, and he's getting the ball airborne more often as well. His exit velocity (90.3 mph) is well above his career average (87.1 mph), ditto his expected slugging percentage (.453 vs. .373). I'm not sure I'd expect Maybin to continue to hit this well going forward, especially since his playing time is likely to be reduced, but this is not the same Cameron Maybin who's been bouncing around the league the last six years. He's not BABIPing his way to a four-game homer streak, you know? There have been adjustments and tangible changes to his game behind this success. Maybin has never been short on talent. The guy was the tenth overall pick in the draft back in the day and he's a former tippy top prospect. The Yankees picked him up in what was truly an emergency trade -- Brendan Kuty says they sent $25,000 to the Indians in the deal -- and let him be himself, and Maybin deserves all the credit for taking advantage of the opportunity. "CC (Sabathia) said it, 'These pinstripes ain't for everybody.' The pinstripes can be heavy. But for me, I feel like it worked out perfect, because with the expectation, and everything that comes along with wearing this uniform, a guy like myself who's been through adversity, who's been through some ups and downs, I think I'm made for the expectation. The way my journey has went -- having some success, struggling, having some success, winning a World Series championship and going back to the minor leagues after 10-11 years, I feel like I'm built for a place like this. I feel like I'm built to play here. And fans deserve players like that, who aren't afraid of the moment and expectations," Maybin told Harvey.

4. Scherzer rumors. Max Scherzer is this year's Jacob deGrom. That dude is not getting traded no matter how much people talk about it. Ken Rosenthal wrote about a possible Scherzer trade and went on television to discuss it further. Craig Edwards wrote about it as well. Scherzer trade ideas are all over social media too, which is in no way surprising. I totally get it, believe me I do, but folks, it is not happening. First of all, the Nationals have won 17 of their last 24 games to climb to within 3.5 games of a Wild Card spot. They're not selling. They're going to win just enough to add a reliever at the deadline and not trade impending free agent Anthony Rendon. Secondly, has anyone actually sat down and looked at Scherzer's contract? The deferrals are outrageous. Scherzer is signed through 2021, so trade for him and you get him for two and a half years and three postseason runs. This is the money remaining on his contract, via Cot's:

• 2019: $7.5M signing bonus payment in September
• 2020: Two $7.5M signing bonus payments (April and September)
• 2021: Two $7.5M signing bonus payments (April and September) 
• 2022-28: $15M in deferred salary each July 1st

That is $7.5M this year plus $15M each year from 2020-28, or $142.5M total. Scherzer carries a $30M luxury tax hit through 2021 but is still owed $142.5M in real dollars, and the payments extend six years beyond the expiration of his contract. Gleyber Torres will be in his age 31 season when Scherzer receives his final deferred salary payment, just to put this into perspective. There is not a team in baseball that is taking on all that money and giving up good prospects in return. If you think there is, you haven't been paying attention to the way teams have operated the last few years. The Nationals have two options. One, salary dump arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Give Scherzer and his contract away and take okay-ish prospects in return. Or two, eat a bunch of money and get good prospects in return, which effectively means paying Scherzer to pitch for another contender. Does either of those scenarios seem likely? No. No they do not. The Nationals are a win-now team and unless the unthinkable happens and a team is willing to take on that contract and surrender good prospects, I don't see a scenario in which Scherzer is traded. Washington is going to retool and try again next year, and their best chance to win next year involves having Scherzer atop the rotation. I get why folks are talking about him as a trade target. This is every bit as unlikely as a deGrom trade last season though, maybe even moreso because the Lerners aren't as cheap as the Wilpons.

5. Montgomery setback. After cutting short a bullpen session earlier this week, Jordan Montgomery was sent for tests, and he has been shut down two weeks with shoulder inflammation. “I think there is certainly a chance (he pitches for us this season). Let's get through these next couple of weeks. Let’s build him back up and see where we are at," Aaron Boone told Kristie Ackert yesterday. This is a bummer, though it is not particularly uncommon for Tommy John surgery guys. It is a grueling rehab and sometimes the arm needs a little break. Montgomery was targeting a return in August -- he's been saying that since Spring Training -- and this little two-week break and getting built back up means August probably isn't happening. Maybe he can throw a few innings in September. Heck, it might be best to bring him back as a one or two-inning reliever rather than spend all that time stretching him out to start. Either way, this little setback means Montgomery is not coming to save the rotation in the second half. The Yankees can't count on him and I honestly don't think they were. As I wrote in our season preview post, I am skeptical about post-Tommy John surgery Montgomery because guys like him don't have much margin for error to start with. Lose a little velocity or bite or feel and he could go from solid back-end starter to fringe big leaguer in a hurry. That's something to worry about another time. For now, the setback means Montgomery is more or less out of the picture this year. That makes adding a second depth starter at the trade deadline, a guy like 2017 Jaime Garcia or 2018 Lance Lynn, that much more of a priority.

6. All-Stars. Time to go through my All-Star Game projections again. Two weeks ago I had four Yankees in the All-Star Game: Aroldis Chapman, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, and Luke Voit. I'm going with five All-Stars this time: Chapman, LeMahieu, Sanchez, Voit, and Gleyber Torres. Sanchez is a no-brainer, Voit has been the best hitting first baseman in the American League, LeMahieu has been out of this world good, and Chapman has been his typically excellent self. Two weeks ago I said I expected Torres to get squeezed out given all the depth at shortstop. Jorge Polanco and Xander Bogaerts have been great, and Francisco Lindor has done enough since returning from injury to warrant an All-Star game selection. Plus the game is in Cleveland, so I imagine he has a big spike in fan voting support coming. I'm totally cool with that. Lindor's a star and I have no trouble at all with getting him into the All-Star Game in his home city. Those guys could all leave Torres on the outside looking in. Right now, I think he gets in. Only Javier Baez has more home runs among middle infielders and Torres ranks among the very best middle infielder in the various rate stats as well. Gleyber was an All-Star last year, so he's well-known, and he has been a constant impact player for a first place team. Getting five players to the All-Star Game isn't easy these days. Not unless fans stuff the ballot box. The Yankees have as good a chance at five All-Stars as any team in baseball this year. The guess right now is Torres makes it along with Chapman, LeMahieu, Sanchez, and Voit. As for the Home Run Derby, I think you can write Voit's name in ink for that. He's said he wants to go and MLB surely wants a Yankee involved for ratings and clicks. The league has had trouble getting big name players involved in the Home Run Derby and here's a Yankee who says he wants to participate. Voit's going. Also, my money is on Deivi Garcia representing the Yankees at the Futures Game. How could he not? The young man has a 3.02 ERA (1.74 FIP) with 100 strikeouts in 59.2 innings. (He has a 40.3% strikeout rate.) Earlier this week Garcia tied Adam Warren's franchise record with 15 strikeouts for Double-A Trenton. Fifteen strikeouts in six shutout innings in the game that clinched the first half division title (and thus a postseason berth). Pretty great. Deivi is an obvious choice for the Futures Game. If the Yankees get a second Futures Gamer, even better. 

7. Minor league thoughts. Got a few rapid fire minor league thoughts. First, the small sample size numbers on Anthony Seigler are incredibly promising. He is 8-for-23 (.348) through seven games with Low-A Charleston, but, more importantly, he has six walks against four strikeouts and a microscopic 4.7% swing-and-miss rate. That's after drawing 14 walks against 12 strikeouts in 24 pro games last year. Again, it's a really small sample size (124 total plate appearances), but Seigler's ability to control the strike zone is awfully exciting. Second, outfielder Canaan Smith is having a breakout year. The 2017 fourth rounder had a big pro debut in the rookie Gulf Coast League (151 wRC+), struggled with Short Season Staten Island last year (81 wRC+), and has really taken off with Low-A Charleston this year. Smith is hitting .311/.405/.498 (159 wRC+) with 13.6% walks and 23.0% strikeouts in 60 games. He's pretty much a bat only guy, so he's going to have to keep hitting to have value, but Smith is on the heavy side of the platoon as a left-handed batter, and he has a nose for getting on base. Plus he turned only 20 in April. I'm looking forward to seeing how he progresses. Third, righty Luis Gil has cut his walk rate from 15.1% last year to 10.8% with Low-A Charleston this year. That's still higher than you'd like, but it is a step in the right direction. The Yankees acquired the 21-year-old Gil from the Twins in the Jake Cave trade last year and he's running a 1.81 ERA (2.55 FIP) with 32.5% strikeouts in 59.2 innings this season, plus he throws 100 mph with a nasty high spin curveball. His first try at full season ball is going better than I expected, honestly. And fourth, buried in this Greg Johnson story about Deivi Garcia's recent 15-strikeout game is a great quote from organizational outfielder Ben Ruta:

"I'm definitely a big believer in you can't just turn the winning button on when you get to the majors, and I think that's why the Yankees are so successful and they win every year, because you see all the guys that went up this year, the Yankees didn't skip a beat and these guys have little to no experience up there," Ruta said. "It's because they learn it down here. It's not some luck that the Yankees win every single year. It's an organizational thing. We're not going to take the foot off the gas now that we won the first half. We're going to try to win the second half, too, and we're going to try to get better at the same time." 

Development is the priority in the minors, not winning, but winning is important too. Want a winning culture? Then, like everything else, it has to exist throughout the organization, not only at the MLB level. That culture has to be instilled at the lowest levels so players expect to win as they climb the minors. There is no switch to flip when you reach the big leagues. The expectation is the same at every level. Great quote by Ruta.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Mike asks: Has Voit’s production made his trade value to increase much? Could he be packaged for pitching? I like Voit, but I wouldn’t mind selling high and we have DJLM to cover first now that Didi’s back (bring back Thairo!). 

It's tough to pin down the trade value of first basemen, I've found. Has Luke Voit upped his trade value since joining the Yankees? Yes, absolutely. There's no doubt about that. He's gone from up-and-down depth guy to arguably the most productive first baseman in the American League. He's worth more now than he was a year ago at this time.

There haven't been many first base-for-pitching trades in recent years. Dan Vogelbach was traded as a prospect for Mike Montgomery, who had a few weeks in MLB. Prospect Anthony Rizzo was traded for prospect Andrew Cashner. C.J. Cron was traded for an okay infield prospect and I guess he could've netted an okay pitching prospect instead.

Also, which teams need a first baseman (or DH)? Supply and demand drives the market and I don't know if the demand is there. The two teams that most need first base (or DH) help are the Red Sox and Rays, so don't expect a trade there. The Marlins have interesting young arms, so maybe there's a fit with a guy like Pablo Lopez, Trevor Richards, or Jose Urena.

I am definitely not opposed to trading Voit for a pitcher. The Yankees could plug Edwin Encarnacion in at first base and Clint Frazier at DH. Recent first base trades (or lack of trades) leads me to believe Voit wouldn't net a true difference-maker. My hunch is he is more valuable to the Yankees on their roster than anything they could get in a trade.

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