June 14th, 2019: Keuchel, Boyd, Bullpen, Gregorius, Tulowitzki, Outfield, Romine, Mailbag

Just a heads up, I'm trying to figure out a way to host a chat on Patreon. Patreon's editor is very basic and I can't simply embed the chat HTML code into a post like at RAB. I'll have to figure something out. I'll keep you updated. Anyway, here are today's thoughts.

1. Keuchel pursuit. We need to take a minute to discuss the sheer absurdity of Brian Cashman's comments regarding the Yankees' failed Dallas Keuchel pursuit. Here is a transcript of Cashman's comments during a radio interview earlier this week, via Brendan Kuty:

“We were interested. We made an offer that we were comfortable with and that was it. Atlanta made a higher one. It wasn’t like a back-and-forth. We had two that we ultimately made and we stopped and we waited to hear if it was a yes or a no. We were very transparent about where we’re at. There’s a financial limitation until we go into the next luxury tax level and that was obviously conveyed and that pushes next year’s No. 1 (top draft choice) pick back. There’s a number of different penalties associated with that. So we’re trying to stay under the second luxury tax penalty that crushes next year’s pick. All that stuff was communicated. Our highest offer was at the rate of the qualifying offer and Atlanta apparently went higher.” 

First of all, why wasn't there a back-and-forth? The guy had been sitting in free agency since November. Am I supposed to believe Keuchel and Scott Boras would not have been willing to listen if the NEW YORK YANKEES went to them and said, "hey, before making a final decision, give us one last chance to top the best offer." Come on now. According to Cot's, the Yankees have about $16M in wiggle room under the $246M third luxury tax tier. Some of that needs to be set aside for any additional injury call-ups as well as September call-ups, so their $11M offer to Keuchel would've chewed up pretty much all their luxury tax wiggle room. Beyond the money, the comments about the draft pick really drive home how ridiculous this all is. Yes, go into the third luxury tax tier and next year's top pick moves back ten spots, which means the Yankees would wind up with a (slightly) smaller available talent pool and a (slightly) smaller bonus pool. Two things about that though. First, we're talking about a late first round pick becoming an early second round pick. Research has shown the difference in expected return on picks 26-50 isn't all that big. Anything can happen in one individual draft, obviously. Generally speaking, there's a small difference between the late first round and early second round. And, if it's a mid or even early first round pick that moves back, well that means there's an even bigger problem somewhere, because it will mean the 2019 Yankees crashed in the standings. And secondly, the alternative to moving next year's pick back ten spots is trading prospects. Cashman is telling us the Yankees would rather trade prospects now -- surely it will require parting with multiple prospects, not a single prospect, to get a quality starting pitcher(s) at the trade deadline -- than get a slightly worse prospect in the draft next year. That one prospect next year is worth more than the multiple prospects they will have to trade away at the deadline. Does that make any sense whatsoever? No, it does not, but that is how the Yankees are justifying what I will politely call their unwillingness to use the financial advantages afforded to them by their market size and history. I guess the good news is their excuses are becoming more and more absurd and easier to see through, which could ramp up the pressure to spend going forward. The damage is already done though. The Yankees lost out on Keuchel and several other talented players the last two years because of their self-imposed payroll limit. Now they have to trade prospects to get the help they need this year, and weaken their future as a result. The excuses are weak and fans -- the paying customers -- deserve better.

2. Targeting Boyd. We've spent -- and will continue to spend -- some time discussing possible pitching trade targets, and one guy we haven't mentioned is Tigers lefty Matt Boyd. Jon Morosi says the Tigers will listen to offers for their veterans, including the 28-year-old Boyd. He currently owns a 3.35 ERA (2.98 FIP) with great strikeout (30.7%) and walk (4.7%) rates. (The 37.4% ground ball rate leaves a little something to be desired.) Boyd dropped his arm slot a touch this year and, as a result, he's getting more spin on his fastball and more swings and misses on everything. The slider's playing up. Here are the numbers going into last night's start (Boyd throws roughly 90% fastballs and sliders):

Boyd's fastball velocity is up and his slider velocity is down, so there's greater separation between the two pitches. There's a little more spin on the fastball too. Also, I'm sure there is a deception component to the lower arm slot that we can't quantify. Long story short, there are reasons to believe Boyd's improvement is legit and not small sample size noise. He's made a tangible change to who he is as a pitcher. Boyd should be on the radar as a potential trade target and I'm sure we'll hear plenty about him in the coming weeks. The big question: What do the Tigers want in return? Boyd is under team control through 2022. He's young and good, and under control long enough that Detroit could build around him going forward. It's not crazy to think Boyd can be part of the next contending Tigers team. Jose Quintana was traded with three and a half years of control and he fetched one elite prospect (Eloy Jimenez), another top 100 prospect (Dylan Cease), plus two others. That's the best trade benchmark I can come up given the years of control. Assuming Gleyber Torres is off the table (he should be), the closest thing the Yankees have to an Eloy Jimenez in the organization is Clint Frazier. Remember though, Quintana's track record as a top tier starter was quite a bit longer than Boyd's, so maybe he won't net the Tigers an Eloy level prospect. Either way, Boyd is a fine trade target. It's just a question of whether the Tigers are truly willing to trade him, and whether the Yankees can find common ground. Boyd's a fit though.

3. Reliever trade? The Dellin Betances setback and the general bullpen workload -- the Yankees have five relievers on pace for 70 or so appearances -- suggests the Yankees should be in the market for bullpen help at the trade deadline. They don't necessarily need an impact guy like, say, Brad Hand or Will Smith or Kirby Yates, though I would happily take one. More than anything, another bullpen arm to lighten the load on everyone else wouldn't be a terrible idea. And then if Dellin returns and Chad Green and/or Jonathan Holder rights the ship, great. The more quality relievers, the better. The Yankees can sit back and let the Dodgers, Twins, and whoever else battle it out for the tippy top relievers prior to July 31st. The Yankees can scour the market for a lower profile middle reliever type. Looking through the spin rate leaderboards (the Yankees love their spin rates), here are some possible bullpen targets:

• Shawn Armstrong, Orioles: 4.12 ERA (4.82 FIP) and 23.9 K%
• Cory Gearrin, Mariners: 4.78 ERA (3.94 FIP) and 23.7 K%
• Daniel Hudson, Blue Jays: 3.45 ERA (5.27 FIP) and 21.0 K%
• Robert Stephenson, Reds: 3.96 ERA (2.59 FIP) and 34.3 K%

I am not endorsing anyone specifically nor am I saying spin rate is the most single most important evaluation tool. It's like velocity. It's one piece of the puzzle. The Yankees clearly value it though, so we might as well start our middle reliever search with spin rate guys. Stephenson is a former top prospect who found a home in the bullpen this year before landing on the injured list with a neck strain. The Reds are stuck in fourth place in the NL Central despite having the fourth best run differential in the National League, so they could sell some pieces at the trade deadline (prepare yourselves for Tanner Roark trade rumors). Stephenson is young enough and under control long enough that keeping him as a bullpen building block is reasonable. He'd be a good target though. Gearrin and Hudson are veteran dudes and impending free agents who might be available for nothing more than salary relief and a Grade-C prospect. The single July 31st trade deadline really complicates things. The Yankees may not have much (or any) time to evaluate a healthy Betances before the deadline. Given how much the Yankees rely on their bullpen, I can't imagine a scenario in which adding a depth middle reliever at the deadline is a bad move. Maybe it proves to be unnecessary, but I'd rather have the depth and not need it than need it and not have it, you know? We'll see how the next few weeks play out. A starting pitcher is clearly the top priority prior to the trade deadline. I wouldn't rule out adding another bullpen arm either. (I should note Jonathan Loaisiga played catch for the first time earlier this week. He is eligible to come off the 60-day injured list on July 12th and could be a late-season factor out of the bullpen. Fingers crossed.)

4. Gregorius extension. So, now that Didi Gregorius is back and looking like himself (albeit maybe a little rusty in the field), do the Yankees rekindle contract extension talks? Without naming names, Brian Cashman indicated the two sides discussed an extension back in Spring Training, though I always assumed the Yankees would wait until Sir Didi completed his Tommy John surgery rehab before getting serious. It only made sense to see how he came back, right? Right. Well, Gregorius is back now, and everything looks good. With Xander Bogaerts signing that long-term extension a few weeks ago, the upcoming free agent shortstop class absolutely stinks. From MLBTR:

Elvis Andrus (31) — can opt out of remaining three years, $43MM
Freddy Galvis (30) — $5.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Didi Gregorius (30)
Brock Holt (32)
Jose Iglesias (30)
Jordy Mercer (33)
Eduardo Nuñez (33)
Chris Owings (28) 

I don't think teams are holding their breath waiting for Andrus to opt out. Gregorius is far and away the best shortstop scheduled to hit the market after the season. On one hand, that could make the bidding war fierce. Gregorius is in the prime of his career and he's an above-average two-way shortstop who's had success in the most demanding situation possible (in New York, replacing Derek Jeter, etc.). A guy like that figures to be in demand. On the other hand, which teams need a shortstop? Shockingly few. The Rangers if Andrus opts out, I suppose. (Texas has a new ballpark opening next year and I think they're going to spend big this winter.) The Nationals could sign Gregorius and put him at second base next to Trea Turner, or vice versa. Maybe the Indians trade Francisco Lindor and sign Gregorius to replace him. Are the Blue Jays, Orioles, Pirates, or Tigers going to spend on a prime-aged free agent shortstop given where they are in their competitive window? You can never rule it out, thought it does seem unlikely. The Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Rays, Red Sox, and Twins are all set at short. Sir Didi's market may not be as robust as you'd think. Even then, I'm still cool with the Yankees pursuing an extension with Gregorius. The more good players, the better. Could three years and $36M work? That is the DJ LeMahieu contract plus one extra year to account for the difference in age. Add in a fourth year club option at, say, $15M, and you could bump the guarantee to $38M or so with a buyout. It wasn't too long ago that we were talking about the Jean Segura contract (five years and $70M) as a contract benchmark for Gregorius. The collapse of free agency and his Tommy John surgery have changed the equation. Gregorius might jump on three years and $36M right now to lock in that payday. Either way, I think the Yankees should approach him about an extension. If Didi's side wants to wait until after the season, that's cool, but the Yankees have to at least ask.

5. Tulowitzki's future. Didi Gregorius is back and Troy Tulowitzki, who was supposed to fill in at shortstop, went home last week to mull over his future. He'd been in Tampa rehabbing his calf injury. "I think he is trying to weigh everything that is going on in our organization and where he is at. Obviously it has been a tough time from battling back and getting back and having a setback. (He's) trying to take some time to go through things with his agent and family, so we respect that," Aaron Boone told George King last week. Without knowing anything beyond what Boone said last week, it sounds like Tulowitzki sees the writing on the wall and knows there is no place for him on the roster even after he gets healthy. The guy missed a year and a half with ankle and heel injuries, then only made it through Spring Training and the first week of the regular season before getting hurt again. I'm sure he's sick of getting hurt and rehabbing. I know I would be. It sucks, because Tulowitzki is only 34 and should still have some baseball left in him, but his body keeps tapping out. I suppose he could finish rehabbing the calf injury and ask the Yankees for his release so he could try to catch on elsewhere. That seems like his best case scenario right now, and, to me, that doesn't sound very appealing at all. Then again, Tulowitzki is a world class athlete and those guys are wired differently. Reports over the winter indicated more teams had interest in Tulowitzki than Manny Machado and Bryce Harper combined (free talent is a hell of a drug), but this was never all that likely to work out. The history of infielders who miss a full season in their 30s is pretty terrible. They rarely make it back to be effective. Tulowitzki is just another data point. I get why the Yankees took a chance on him and it's a shame the way things worked out. This was always the most likely outcome though. A bunch of optimistic stories in Spring Training and no on-field value.

6. Outfield jumps. The MLB.com crew released some fun new Statcast tools earlier this week that measure an outfielder's jump. There are a few different components to it, but, simply put, it tells us how much ground (in the correct direction!) an outfielder covers in the first three seconds after contact. Three seconds seems a little long to me when you're measuring first step, but it is what it is. The best average outfield jump belongs to Guillermo Heredia at 3.0 feet above average. Melky Cabrera is dead last at 5.4 feet below average. No one can turn a poor jump or a bad route into a great diving catch quite like Melky. Anyway, here are the Yankees:

• Mike Tauchman: +0.9 (no 2018 data)
• Brett Gardner: +0.5 (+0.4 last year)
• Clint Frazier: -0.3 (-2.9 last year)
• Aaron Hicks: -0.5 (-1.9 last year)
• Aaron Judge: -1.3 (-2.9 last year)
• Cameron Maybin: -2.3 (-0.2 last year)
• Giancarlo Stanton: no 2019 data (-0.7 last year)

Sample size caveats apply, but those are the numbers. Statcast says Tauchman and Gardner get the best jumps while Maybin gets the worst. Despite Frazier's defensive reputation (and performance), it doesn't surprise me Maybin gets the worst jump among Yankees outfielders. Granted, I haven't watched the guy play that much over the years, but I've found his first step to be shockingly slow this year. You have to see it in person to really appreciate it. Television doesn't do it justice. Maybin needs a moment or two to get going. We'll see how the data evolves as the season progresses and the sample size grows. For now, Statcast indicates New York's outfielders generally get poor jumps on the ball. I want to see more data and get a better feel for this stuff before saying anything definitive though. (The Yankees have +2 Defensive Runs Saved as an outfield unit even with Frazier and his -6 DRS dragging everyone down.)

8. Romine's struggles. Austin Romine is having an appallingly bad season and I feel like it is flying completely under the radar because there is so much other stuff going on with the Yankees given their injuries and pitching needs and all that. Romine's hitting .198/.215/.253 (20 wRC+) in 99 plate appearances and while that doesn't sound like much, he averaged 231 plate appearances from 2016-18. He's 40% of the way there. There are 336 players with at least 90 plate appearances this season and only four have a lower wRC+ than Romine. His caught stealing rate is below average and Baseball Prospectus says his overall defense is below average. And the pitching staff has allowed more runs with Romine behind the plate than Gary Sanchez (or Kyle Higashioka). What does he bring to the table, exactly? I'm not quite sure. Familiarity, I suppose. I get it, the backup catcher (probably) won't sink the season. But good gravy, it would be nice to get some production from the position. The Yankees have shown little to no interest in improving the backup catcher position the last few years, so I have no reason to expect a midseason trade. We could argue until we're blue in the face about the team's MVP this season. I know this much: Sanchez is the most indispensable Yankee. The drop off from Gary to his replacement is not just the largest at any position on the Yankees, but arguably the largest at any position on any team in the league. Sanchez is that good and Romine has been that bad. Romine's a nice enough guy and he's popular in the clubhouse and in the organization. He's going to be a free agent after the season though, and I hope the Yankees look for an upgrade. Someone who could provide more offense and more defense (or at least one of the two), and allow the Yankees to give Sanchez a few more DH days throughout the season to keep him fresh and healthy. Jason Castro could be an interesting free agent target, though that's a topic for the offseason. Right now, I am just so in awe of Romine's awfulness that I was compelled to blog about it.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Steve asks: So your mention in CBS Sports article about Jose Urena got me looking.  Seems to be a high speed fastball guy but low spin rates if I’m reading Statcast right. Is that why his K numbers are lower than expected? He sounds like a decent under the radar pick up maybe if they could tweak some stuff and he’s thrown in relief in the past so that also could be a plus. I guess not really a question here but more just a deeper look into his profile as he’s more interesting than I would have thought at first glance. Thanks! 

Urena is a sinkerballer, not a four-seam fastball guy, so spin rate works differently for him. He wants a low spin rate to get that sinker to tumble down. The higher the spin rate, the more the fastball stays up, so to speak. Urena's velocity is very good. He's averaging 95.6 mph on his sinker and has topped out at 98.2 mph this year. It can be a nasty, nasty pitch.

Fancy GIF aside, Urena's sinker spin rate sits at 2,154 rpm this year, which is a little higher than you'd like. The league average sinker spin rate is 2,132 rpm. Brett Anderson has the lowest average sinker spin rate at 1,807 rpm this year. Other noted sinkerballers like Zack Britton (2,009 rpm) and Kyle Hendricks (1,943 rpm) are closer to 2,000 rpm.

The sinker has allowed Urena to post a 50.6% ground ball rate this year, which is good, but not elite. His strikeout (15.8%) and swing-and-miss (8.7%) rates are comfortably below average. Urena's slider is a good secondary pitch, though he's stuck in that gray area with fewer strikeouts than you'd like and fewer ground balls than you'd like for a guy with his strikeout rate.

That all said, Urena is only 27, and maybe the Yankees can help him improve ... something. Either the strikeouts or the grounders. He has a 4.70 ERA (4.53 FIP) this year and a 4.04 ERA (4.65 FIP) since moving into the rotation full-time three years ago. The tools are there but the results are not, similar to Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi. Urena will leave you wanting more.

A guy with a live arm and team control through 2021 is worth considering. Urena has a reputation for being a hot head (see: the Ronald Acuna incident), which could be a dealbreaker. Several teams have reportedly checked in on him though, so there's interest. A high velocity sinker will always fit in Yankee Stadium.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Seth asks: Given the distance between the US and London along with the associated issues for international travel, do you think the Yankees will travel with an extra position player and/or pitcher in case of injury?

I can't find definitive word on this, but I believe the Yankees and Red Sox will have an extra roster spot(s) for the two-game series in London later this month. The Athletics and Mariners used 28-man rosters for the Japan Series back in March. The Cardinals and Reds had a 26-man roster for their series in Mexico in April, ditto the Angels and Astros for their series in Mexico in May. I have to believe the Yankees and Red Sox will get at least one extra roster spot in London. They might get three extra roster spots because they're crossing time zones. Either way, yes, I expect both teams to bring extra players in case there's an injury. An extra pitcher and an extra position player seems likely, just for emergencies. Who will those players be? Well, let's see what the roster looks like when the series arrives in three weeks. We'll figure it out then.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)