May 21st, 2019: Sanchez, Happ, Estrada, Frazier, Loaisiga, Adams, 2019 Draft

Remember when the Yankees started 6-9 and lost home series to the Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox? Feels like a lifetime ago. The Little Engine That Could has won 23 of its last 31 games and has baseball's best record since Tax Day. You're going to hear a lot of dumb stuff these next few weeks about the injured guys coming back and ruining the team's mojo, but don't buy it. The healthy Yankees are much more likely to continue at this pace than the replacement Yankees. That doesn't mean we can't enjoy this group, especially after these last few games. Anyway, here are today's thoughts. Another post is coming Friday.

1. Yo soy Gary. Forgive me for fanboying over Gary Sanchez for a bit. He's so awesome and I'm happy he's back to crushing the ball after his nightmare 2018 season. Sanchez spent two weeks on the injured list last month and he still leads all catchers with 13 home runs -- Willson Contreras is the only other catcher with double-digit homers (he has 11) -- and the catcher slugging percentage leaderboard is hilarious:

1. Gary Sanchez, Yankees: .646
2. Willson Contreras, Cubs: .627
3. James McCann, White Sox: .539
4. Christian Vazquez, Red Sox: .535
5. Robinson Chirinos, Astros: .505

Also, Sanchez has allowed four passed balls in 219 innings, or one every 54.8 innings. Last year it was one every 36.3 innings. Those early season throwing errors were weird but they're not an issue anymore (see: this) and I never expected Sanchez's throwing to be an ongoing problem. Gary has always been an excellent thrower. Seems like he hit a little rut earlier this year more than anything. Whatever. As Katie Sharp noted, last night's homer was Sanchez's third go-ahead homer in the ninth inning or later since Opening Day 2018, which is as many as all other Yankees combined. A great catcher is such a huge advantage. On average, catchers are hitting .238/.299/.399 (91 wRC+) this season. They stink. Sanchez is at .265/.341/.646 (155 wRC+). The Yankees have an advantage -- a significant advantage -- behind the plate in pretty much every game they play this year. It is pretty rad.

2. Happ's struggles. J.A. Happ is going to force the Yankees to sign Dallas Keuchel. I mean, probably not, because I have a hard time believing the Yankees will spend that money (to replace another expensive starter) and go into the second luxury tax tier, but it seems like something they should consider. Happ is sitting on a 5.16 ERA (5.71 FIP) with the second highest home run rate (2.24 HR/9) in baseball, and he's allowed 15 runs in 17.1 innings against the O's this year. That is just awful. Even in his good starts, it always feels like Happ is a pitch or two away from falling apart. He's on the mound trying to survive when he doesn't have his good four-seamer, which is more often than not.  Some four-seamer numbers:

That all seems bad. Things trending the wrong way, which isn't too surprising for a 36-year-old. There were warning signs coming into the season.  Can't say this came out of nowhere. James Paxton is expected back soon and he'll step into the Chad Green/opener rotation spot. Can the Yankees really wait around until Luis Severino returns -- that won't be until the All-Star break, according to Brian Cashman -- to replace Happ? Do they even have a choice? It took Mike Mussina and CC Sabathia, two Hall of Fame caliber pitchers, multiple years to adjust to life without their Grade-A fastball. Perhaps Happ can figure it out quickly and turn his season around. I'm not particularly optimistic. Unless the Yankees sign Keuchel (lol) or Severino returns ahead of schedule, the Yankees have little choice but to keep running Happ out there every fifth day and hoping something clicks. What a mess Happ has been this year though. The veteran who was supposed to stabilize the rotation has been its weakest link.

3. The Summer of Thairo. Thairo Estrada is capitalizing on his opportunity in a way Tyler Wade has been unable to the last few years. Estrada has started eight games and he has a hit in six of them. He's come off the bench and gotten an at-bat in three games, and he has a hit in two of them. That includes Sunday's bases-clearing double to break the game open. Estrada is 10-for-33 (.303) with two doubles and two homers so far, he's played second and short well, and he did okay when the Yankees threw him in left field for injury-related reasons in San Francisco. I wrote this in my 2018 top 30 prospects post and again in my 2019 top 30 prospects post: Thairo is the rich man's Ronald Torreyes. He makes contact like Torreyes and he can play all around like Torreyes, but Estrada has more power, better plate discipline, more speed, and is a better defender. Part of me says Thairo should be in Triple-A to get at-bats after a lost season last year. Use Wade or Brad Miller or Cliff Pennington or someone else you don't care about as the seldom-used utility guy while Estrada continues his development. Another part of me says the best possible 25-man roster has Thairo as the utility guy. He's able to help the Yankees win now and hey, you can learn a lot sitting on a big league bench and going through all the hitters' meetings and whatnot. I don't expect it to happen, but I hope the Yankees keep Estrada over Troy Tulowitzki whenever (if ever) Tulowitzki returns. Sending Thairo to Triple-A to clear a spot for Didi Gregorius is one thing. Tulowitzki though? Nah. Keep the young guy with life in his bat and life in his game in general. Estrada's been a fun little side story this year. He persevered through that hellish 2018 season and is being rewarded now. "Thairo to me has been one of the faces of what we're doing now. Missing a lot of last year -- this guy's a prospect -- in a lot of ways he kinda rushed him up here and threw him into the fire, and he's handled every situation perfectly," Aaron Boone said following Sunday's win (video link).

4. Frazier demotion. So Clint Frazier's going to wind up in Triple-A once Giancarlo Stanton returns, isn't he? Frazier was hitting .324/.342/.632 (152 wRC+) through 73 plate appearances when he hurt his ankle. He's gone 6-for-40 (.150) since returning, dragging his season batting line down to .259/.293/.463 (94 wRC+). "I don’t feel like I’m (flying open like Paul O'Neill said on a recent YES Network broadcast), but I also don’t feel like myself right now. Obviously I’ve been struggling a little bit of late, but it comes with the territory," Frazier told Randy Miller over the weekend. Beyond Frazier's performance, think about the personnel. Stanton, Aaron Hicks, and Brett Gardner aren't going anywhere. Keeping Cameron Maybin around a little longer makes sense with Aaron Judge out another few weeks/months and Gardner wearing down (and Stanton's mysterious shoulder injury). Given their love of all things exit velocity, did the Yankees really pick up Kendrys Morales only to cut him a week or two later? I don't think so. I think his leash is a little longer than that. We're talking about six players (Hicks, Gardner, Frazier, Maybin, Morales, Stanton) for five roster spots (three starting outfielders, fourth outfielder, DH) since two of the three bench spots have to go to a backup catcher (Austin Romine) and a backup infielder (Thairo Estrada). Hard for me to see how Frazier isn't the odd man out at this point. Had Clint picked up where he left off before the injury, this discussion probably goes differently. Right now, it seems like he's headed to Triple-A once Stanton returns, which, admittedly, is up in the air. Giancarlo has to actually get healthy and return to the Yankees at some point -- Stanton started a minor league rehab assignment last night and hit a home run, so he's on the way back (fingers crossed) -- before Clint has to worry about locking down an apartment in Scranton.

5. Loaisiga's injury. Boy, the Jonathan Loaisiga situation escalated quickly, huh? He was scheduled to start last Monday. This is what happened:

• Saturday: Threw his normal between-starts bullpen session.
• Sunday: Complained of shoulder discomfort (per Randy Miller).
• Monday: Shut down four weeks and placed on 10-day injured list.
• Tuesday: Transferred to 60-day injured list.

Injuries are, unfortunately, part of the Johnny Lasagna story. Tommy John surgery three years ago is the big one, but the Giants released him back in the day after years of shoulder trouble, and Loaisiga missed a month with a shoulder issue last year as well. As talented as he is, injuries come with the territory. As a result, he's thrown 220 total innings in seven professional seasons and his inexperience shows. Check out Loaisiga's fastball locations in his brief MLB career (catcher's view):

That is a young man who is either not comfortable pitching inside or has yet to develop the ability to pitch inside consistently. Watching Loaisiga pitch this year (and last year as well, but especially this year), it seemed obvious to me hitters were sitting outer half and standing comfortably in the batter's box. I'm not saying Loaisiga has to throw at guys, but he has to at least make them think inside sometimes. He's been too predictable in his career to date and I think the injuries and lack of mound time have contributed to that. He simply hasn't had time to develop his game. Given his ugly injury history and increased risk of catastrophic injury, I think it's time to put Loaisiga in the bullpen and let him air it out as a one or two-inning guy. I believe he has starter's stuff, but his body is telling us it's not up to handling a starter's workload. It seems foolish to keep trying it. It's harsh, but the Yankees should get what they can out of Loaisiga before he breaks down for good, and stop trying to chase what his body is telling us it can't do.

6. Adams' spin rates. Great moments in reading way too much into small sample sizes with Chance Adams:

2018 curveball: 2,724 rpm
2019 curveball: 2,917 rpm

2018 slider: 2,711 rpm
2019 slider: 2,944 rpm

Those increases are significant. Among pitchers with at least 100 curveballs thrown, only six have an average spin rate north of 2,900 rpm this year. Only three pitchers are doing it with sliders. In that very limited three-inning look Sunday, Adams showed elite spin rates on two breaking balls. Adams had a bone spur removed from his elbow early in the 2017-18 offseason and he pitched terribly pretty much all of 2018. He had a nice little three-start stretch with Triple-A Scranton before being called up (18.2 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 22 K), and here's what he told Randy Miller about that:

“My slider has been more of a competitive pitch,” Adams said. “I haven’t been missing so far out. So that’s been different.” 

...

“Me and (Triple-A Scranton pitching coach Tommy Phelps) were working on some mechanical things that I might have gotten away from, so I just tweaked those,” Adams said. “We did it based on old video that we saw … tweaks I might have made when I was hurt pitching through my (elbow issue). My body might have done some different things. I’m not sure.” 

For the time being, I'd say the suddenly sky high spin rate on Adams' breaking balls is something to monitor going forward rather than something to get excited about. Let's see what happens with a larger sample. I never fully bought into Adams as a starting pitcher -- I totally get and support trying him in that role, and hey, he looked great for a while, but I wasn't sold on him as a starter in the juiced ball era because he has nothing to keep the ball on the ground -- but as a reliever? Even one throwing 91-93 mph instead of 94-96 mph? He could be useful as an anti-fastball guy with two high-spin breaking balls. Could be cool. Hopefully the improvement is legit and Adams can help the Yankees in some capacity going forward, even as a lower leverage up-and-down guy. As recently as two weeks ago he looked like someone in danger of losing his 40-man roster spot. Now there's a reason to keep paying attention.

7. Mock drafts. The 2019 amateur draft begins two weeks from yesterday and I have to say, since shutting down RAB, I feel much less tuned into the draft than in previous years. Writing all those draft profiles was a great learning experience. Anyway, here's what the latest mock drafts say about the Yankees (I was asked to write one for CBS Sports so I educated-guessed my way through it):

• Baseball America (subs. req'd): New Jersey HS SS Anthony Volpe
• FanGraphs: Florida HS 3B Tyler Callihan
• Keith Law (subs. req'd): Elon RHP George Kirby
• MLB.com: Tulane 3B Kody Hoese

Four mock drafts, four different players. That tells you things are really up in the air right now. That's not the most surprisingly thing late in the first round, but usually there is some consensus this close to the draft. Instead, the Yankees are all over the place. They're mocked everything but a high school pitcher right now. My personal favorite draft prospect this year is California HS 3B Keoni Cavaco. A snippet of MLB.com's scouting report:

Cavaco first started getting attention for his complete tools package at the Angel Elite showcase in the fall, where his tremendous raw power particularly stood out. The only question about his offensive profile is how consistently he'll hit to get to that power, as there is some swing and miss to his game. Beyond the bat, Cavaco will show flashes of plus tools across the board. He's clocked sub four-second times home to first out of the box and he has the chance to be a plus defender at third, with very good hands, footwork, a plus arm and a willingness to stick his nose in the dirt ... The industry was sleeping on Cavaco, who wasn't invited to most of the summer showcase circuit events, so there is a lack of track record and the infielder hasn't been challenged against tough competition like some have.

Baseball America (34th), MLB.com (37th), and Keith Law (38th) all have Cavaco ranked in the same general spot but he has helium and is consistently going in the 20-30 pick range in mock drafts. The "he does everything but make consistent contact" profile is very risky, I know, but the Yankees have had some player development success in that area recently (Aaron Judge, most notably). Plus Cavaco's other tools are all high-end and he won't turn 18 until the day before the draft. Underage prep players often make big gains and exceed their perceived ceiling in pro ball (more often than the other draft demographics, anyway). The Yankees have the 30th (their own first rounder) and 38th (Sonny Gray trade) overall picks and a decent sized bonus pool, which gives them the flexibility to do something creative. Maybe it involves Cavaco, maybe not. Either way, he's the guy I irrationally like going into this draft.

(Send questions for Friday's Mailbag Question of the Week to RABmailbag@gmail.com.)