May 17th, 2019: Andujar, Rendon, Morales, Bullpen, Stanton

The Yankees have not played much baseball since the last post, yet they've managed to make one trade, lose a player to a season-ending injury, and make confusing statements about another player's injury. What a week. Here are today's thoughts and this week's mailbag question (send questions to RABmailbag@gmail.com).

1. Andujar's surgery. The Miguel Andujar surgery news is such a bummer on so many levels. For starters, he is a personal favorite and I will miss watching him play. (Okay, I'll miss watching him hit.) Secondly, the Yankees are now without an exciting young player the rest of the season. They are better with Andujar healthy and in the lineup than without him. Third, he's losing a lot of development time. Development never stops. Andujar is only 24 and this season was supposed to be about taking what he learned last year and using it to improve as a hitter, and also improving his defense after an offseason of hard work. Now he has to hit pause and rehab this injury. This is time that should've been spent becoming a better player. And fourth, I'm sure this is hard on Andujar personally. This quote his agent gave James Wagner is a gut punch: "Miguel tried to give as much to the team as he could but realized that he just wasn’t physically able to deal with the pain and still be as productive as we all know he can be." Rough. Andujar can't play and he'll be away from his teammates while rehabbing -- athletes always say it's hard to feel like part of the team when you're hurt -- and it would only be natural for doubt to creep into his mind. Will I be the same hitter? Will I be the same defender? Will I still get that big payday at some point? Andujar is a very hard worker and I have no doubt he will attack his rehab and come back strong. That doesn't make this lost season any easier to swallow. The Yankees are down a good player and Andujar's long-term future is more uncertain than it was even two months ago. Sucks.

2. Rendon trade? As soon as the Yankees announced Miguel Andujar will miss the rest of the season with his shoulder surgery, my mind shifted to an Anthony Rendon trade. Gio Urshela has been awesome, don't get me wrong, but he's not Rendon. The Nationals are terrible -- at 18-25, they have the second worst record in the National League and are off to their worst start since 2009 (they went 59-103 that year) -- and Rendon is an impending free agent. He's an impending free agent and a Scott Boras client, so I don't think Washington can count on a discounted extension. The Nationals got burned last year by hanging on to Bryce Harper at the deadline -- GM Mike Rizzo had a Harper trade in place with the Astros, but ownership squashed it -- and I'm not sure they'll risk it again with Rendon. They could cash him in as a trade chip and try to re-sign him as a free agent after the season. Rendon is hitting .327/.407/.636 (172 wRC+) this year with his typically strong defense. He's an impact guy on both sides of the ball and has been for a few years now. As much as I appreciate what Urshela has done, Rendon sure would be a splendid rental in the wake of Andujar's injury. Three questions about this:

• Will the Nationals actually trade him? There are no indications they would right now.
• Do the Yankees have the pieces to get it done? Their system isn't what it once was.
• What other teams could get involved? The Indians, Rays, Phillies, and Twins maybe.

The second and third bullet points are connected. Not many contenders need a third baseman right now, and if the demand is low, there's less of a chance the Yankees get priced out in a bidding war. As far as I'm concerned, the Yankees do not have any untouchable prospects in the system. Estevan Florial, Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt ... they should all be on the table at the deadline. I'm not saying trade them all for Rendon (or whoever). But I'd have no trouble giving up one or two of those very good but flawed prospects in a Rendon trade package. He's really, really good, and he could change the balance of power in the AL East. Replace Urshela with Rendon for 60-something games and it could push the Yankees over the Rays (and Red Sox). Well, anyway, there's basically no chance this happens, but damn I can't get it out of my head.

3. Other trade candidates. Given Gio Urshela's short track record, the Yankees have to keep an eye on the third base trade market now that Miguel Andujar will miss the season. Brian Cashman wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't. Anthony Rendon is a pipe dream. More realistic trade candidates include Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Drury, Todd Frazier, Yolmer Sanchez, and Neil Walker. Forget about guys with multiple years remaining on their contracts like Evan Longoria or Kyle Seager. They're not worth it. The Yankees only need a stopgap right now. Cabrera and Walker are cheap rentals. Sanchez has two years of control remaining and could stick around as a utility guy. Drury? Been there, done that. Would be kinda funny though, trading for Drury to replace Andujar after Andujar Wally Pipped him last season. I'm sure the Mets would give Frazier (and his salary) away at this point with Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis on the roster, and Jed Lowrie on the mend. Long story short, the current third base trade market is a great big meh. Fortunately Urshela's play gives the Yankees the luxury of time. They can stick with him and see whether the market develops further. Who knows, maybe Urshela really is legit (there are reasons to believe he is) and the Yankees won't need a third baseman. For now, Cashman & Co. need to at least monitor the market. They have to be ready to act in case the other shoe drops on Urshela, or Didi Gregorius' rehab takes longer than expected.

4. Morales trade. The Kendrys Morales trade was such an obvious move that I'm mad I didn't see it coming and mention it as a possibility in the last post. In my defense, it wasn't until the day after the Athletics designated him for assignment that we learned Andujar was going back on the injured list. Morales had slipped my mind at that point. Anyway, the Yankees made the trade for five reasons. One, they didn't have a DH. The alternative to Morales is what, Clint Frazier at DH with Mike Tauchman in the outfield? Mike Ford, Logan Morrison, or Brad Miller at DH? Yuck. Two, it cost nothing (Joel Sherman says the Yankees are responsible for the pro-rated league minimum) and it'll be easy to walk away should it not work out. Three, Morales is an A+ clubhouse guy with a long-standing reputation for helping young players, specifically with their preparation. (Here's what Kevin Pillar said after Morales was traded to the A's.) Four, he's spent the last two years with the Blue Jays, so he knows the AL East. Rays and Red Sox pitchers won't be a mystery to him in those important head-to-head games. And five, he's still hammering the ball:

• Exit Velocity: 91.9 mph (88th percentile)
• Hard-Hit Rate: 47.3% (87th percentile)
• Expected wOBA: .372 (79th percentile)
• Actual Line: .209/.323/.264 (70 wRC+ and .273 wOBA)

"We feel like he’s still (a really good hitter). Just because the numbers weren’t great in Oakland, some of the underlying numbers suggest he is a lot closer to what he’s been the last couple years than what the immediate numbers were," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch following the trade. The exit velocity and all that is nice, but it should be noted Morales has consistently underperformed his Statcast expected numbers. It was a .329 wOBA and a .377 xwOBA last year. It was a .320 wOBA and a .357 xwOBA the year before that. From 2015-18, Morales posted a .339 wOBA and a .373 xwOBA. We have over 2,300 plate appearances worth of data telling us the ostensible wOBA/xwOBA relationship doesn't apply to Morales. He's broken the formula. The Yankees are believers in exit velocity and they deserve some benefit of the doubt here. Perhaps they have ways in mind to help Morales turn his exit velocity into actual production. Would be cool. Would be an extremely 2019 Yankees thing to happen too. I'm not expecting much but I totally get why the Yankees are taking a shot. They're short on warm bodies and there are reasons to believe Morales will produce more going forward than he has to date. If you're upset they're giving at-bats to Morales and not Ford, you're thinking too much.

5. Lefty bats. The Kendrys Morales trade and especially getting Aaron Hicks back should help the Yankees from the left side of the plate. My goodness, their lefty bats (Greg Bird, Brett Gardner, and Mike Tauchman mostly) have been terrible. Yankees righties are hitting .255/.335/.448 (108 wRC+) on the year and that's pretty good. The lefties though? Look:

• AVG: .237 (19th in MLB)
• OBP: .307 (22nd)
• SLG: .366 (24th)
• wRC+: 81 (23rd)

Yikes! The Yankees were short on lefty bats coming into the season even at full health. It was Hicks (a switch-hitter) and Gardner until Didi Gregorius returned. That's it. Then Hicks got hurt and the Yankees have lacked lefty thump all season. It hasn't hurt them much yet, but that doesn't mean it should continue. Hopefully Hicks finds his groove soon and Morales can provide something more than nothing. It'd help the offense overall and also provide some much-needed lineup balance. "Obviously a switch-hitter to balance out our lineup a little bit ... Looking for way to improve our club any way that we can," Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty following the Morales trade.

6. Super bullpen. Folks, the super bullpen is starting to look, well, super. Adam Ottavino has been great all year, Aroldis Chapman's velocity is ticking up, and Zack Britton is throwing the ball better now than he has at any other point as a Yankee. And Tommy Kahnle's been great too. And Chad Green might be fixed! He sure looked good in Tampa the other day, didn't he? I was hoping to see him during the Orioles doubleheader. Alas. Some bullpen ranks this month:

• ERA: 3.20 (14th in MLB)
• FIP: 2.99 (5th)
• K%: 33.3% (1st)
• WAR: +1.1 (3rd)
• Shutdowns: 16 (6th most)
• Meltdowns: 3 (3rd fewest)

(Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase the team's win probability at least 6%. Meltdowns are the opposite. Those are relief appearances that decrease the team's win probability at least 6%.)

The ERA is skewed a little bit because Jake Barrett was left in to wear it in a blowout loss to the Mariners (five runs in two innings), otherwise everything else is great. The relievers are missing bats and protecting leads. The Chapman/Britton/Ottavino/Kahnle quartet has allowed three earned runs and 20 baserunners in 25.2 innings this month. They've struck out 33. That'll work. The bullpen started slow last year too, remember. It wasn't until May that they really settled in and dominated as expected. It sure looks like the same thing has happened this year. These guys have been great the last few weeks.

7. Stanton injury. What in the world was that Giancarlo Stanton stuff earlier this week? The Yankees and every other team are always guarded with injury information, but lordy, these answers from Aaron Boone were something else. From Bryan Hoch:

O ... kay. The Yankees later clarified Stanton has a shoulder strain, but still, that is some straight gibberish from the manager. I don't know whether Boone was truly in the dark about the exact nature of Stanton's injury (that can't be the case, can it?) or whether he didn't want to reveal more than he was supposed to. Whatever it is, yikes, that was not a great set of answers there. The important thing is Stanton is getting at-bats in Extended Spring Training games. He's not mysteriously shut down somewhere. I have no idea when he'll back -- the Yankees have basically stopped giving timetables for their injured players and I don't blame them, even if it is annoying -- but at least he's started the baseball activities part of the process. That's something. It's just, geez, what an odd press conference that was the other day. 

Mailbag Question of the Week

Steve asks: You made a comment about David Hale having some new velocity/spin in AAA and was wondering if you can maybe go into a little more depth on that ... just wondering how much of an actual big league option he may be with Johnny L. now going down, Paxton still a couple weeks away, etc. Any thoughts on if the numbers down there are just small sample of beating up AAA pitching or actually are they maybe on to an even back-end okay starter?

If I could give you more information, I would. All I heard was the Yankees suggested some mechanical tweaks, something they do with pretty much every player, and Hale took to them well. His velocity and spin rates were up earlier this season. That's all I know.

Fortunately, DJ Eberle spoke to Hale about his strong start to the season recently. Unfortunately, Hale did not divulge any details about the specific adjustments he's made, which is usually how it goes. From Eberle:

Along with working on keeping his arm in shape during the offseason, he paid special attention to his slider, wanting to improve his third pitch. Hale has also seen an increase in his velocity of late, having his fastball up in the 95-93 mph range at times.

Hale jokingly attributed the uptick in velocity to "dad strength." 

"I needed a third pitch to be a little more consistent," Hale said. "I feel very good. I've been throwing a little harder than normal. I don't  know if that's dad strength or what.

"My arm feels good. My velo feels good. With my command of the pitches,  this is absolutely the best I've felt so early into a season."

The 31-year-old Hale has a 4.11 ERA (3.92 FIP) in six starts and 30.2 innings with Triple-A Scranton this season, and his strikeout (21.6% vs. 18.3%), walk (5.2% vs. 7.1%), and ground ball (52.9% vs. 46.9%) rates are all a smidge better than last year. The improvements are small enough that we can't rule out sample size noise right now.

Is the supposedly new and improved Hale a big league option? Well, the Yankees might not have a choice at this point. Their fifth starter until James Paxton returns in a few weeks is who, Luis Cessa? Chance Adams? Some combination of openers or tandem starters? The Yankees might have no choice but to turn to Hale should another starter get hurt. I've heard his velocity and spin rates are up. That's all. Will it lead to improved results? Beats me. Wish I could give you a better answer.