May 14th, 2019: Andujar, Gardner, Dingers, German, Valera, Farquhar, Crawford, International Draft

The AL East race is suddenly real tight. You didn't think the Rays would run away with it and the Red Sox would remain a punchline all season, did you? Since the cherry-picked date of April 17th, the Rays are 10-11 and the Red Sox are an American League best 16-6. The Yankees are 16-7. Gonna be a fun race in the AL East this summer. Here is the first of two posts this week. Another is coming Friday as I test out the "two smaller posts per week rather than one big post" idea.

1. Andujar's injury. The optics of Miguel Andujar's latest injured list stint are not good. He supposedly responded well to treatment and rehab for his torn labrum, played only three official minor league rehab games, struggled when he returned to the Yankees, and now he's back on the injured list. Here's what Aaron Boone said shortly before the injured list assignment was made official yesterday:

"We do feel feel like the injury is certainly a contributing factor to some of the struggles. The IL is something we might do real quickly and just give it a little timeout to declare itself a little bit more and reevaluate it ... It's  just we've got to get a better handle on this and probably get him built up in the best way possible if we can move forward with that." 

Realistically, the Yankees only had two options with Andujar: MLB roster or injured list. Sending a player to Triple-A because his timing at the plate is out of whack after missing a month with an injury isn't fair. He should be on the injured list and playing in minor league rehab games (and collecting MLB pay and accruing service time) in that case, not on an optional assignment in Triple-A. Fair or not, it looks like Andujar was rushed back at best and mishandled and put at increased risk of potential career-altering surgery at worst. Not good. Andujar had gone 3-for-34 (.088) with an un-Andujar-like 25.7% strikeout rate since returning. (He had a 16.0% strikeout rate last year.) He came back, had a few hitless games, and then it looked like he started pressing, which only makes things worse. Some numbers since Andujar returned:

• Exit Velocity: 83.9 mph
• Expected wOBA: .172
• Ground Ball Rate: 52.0%

Andujar was not making good contact at all. It was weak contact mostly on the ground. He rolled over on pretty much everything. Even his lone hit during the Rays series was a ground ball to short that (shifted) second baseman Brandon Lowe could not reel in. Here are two charts between injured list stints. On the left are the pitches Andujar put in play and on the right is his spray chart with batted balls colored by exit velocity:

He was lunging at everything, basically. The vast majority of Andujar's balls in play came on pitches on the outer half of the plate and down in the zone. He kept swinging at those pitches (and trying to pull them), and it wasn't working, so pitchers kept throwing them. The injury is to Andujar's right shoulder, his back shoulder when hitting, not his front (power) shoulder. It wouldn't seem that this injury would hinder his swing -- the Yankees insisted it would not during his rehab -- and apparently that is not the case. There's no chance this is a phantom injured list stint to buy him rehab at-bats or something conspiracy theorists like to believe. Hopefully Miggy Missiles just needs a little more rest and few more rehab games to get back to normal. He's a personal fave and also a really good player, and the Yankees are a better team when he's in the lineup. This whole thing though ... blech. Given how all this is played out, you can't help but wonder if the Yankees botched something with one of their prized young players.

2. Gardner wearing down. Going into Spring Training the plan was to use Brett Gardner as a platoon fourth outfielder. Start him in left field and bat him near the bottom of the order against righties, then sit him and put Giancarlo Stanton in left field (with DJ LeMahieu stepping into the lineup) against lefties. Good plan. An easy plan. Then Thanos snapped his fingers and half of all living things went on the injured list. The injuries have pushed Gardner into an everyday role -- in center field, no less, where there's lots of running involved -- and near the top of the lineup. Predictably, it looks like Gardner is wearing down. The bat's a little slow and he's stopped hitting -- believe it or not, Brett was sitting on a small sample .250/.351/.500 (128 wRC+) batting line on April 23rd -- and he seems half-a-step slower in the outfield. That last part is based on the eye test. The slip offensively is undeniable. Gardner is at .132/.217/.245 (23 wRC+) since his batting line topped out on April 23rd. Now that Aaron Hicks has returned, the Yankees can get Gardner out of center field and keep him out of the lineup against lefties. It should be Hicks in center and Clint Frazier in right field at all times, with a Gardner/Cameron Maybin platoon in left. That's the best way to use the roster. Gardner is forever cool with me, but at this point in his career, he is best used in moderation. The injuries pushed him into a more prominent role and after years of beating himself up by playing all out all the time, I'm not sure his body can handle the workload. "Hopefully there are times when we can get him off his feet more. We have leaned on him pretty heavily but we also feel he is up for it," the perpetually optimistic Aaron Boone told George King over the weekend. Based on what we've seen this year and the last few years, I'm not sure Gardner is up for at this point of his career despite what Boone says. The wear down is real and it may've struck earlier than expected this season because he's had to play more than planned and in center field full-time.

3. Dingers required. The injuries have pushed Brett Gardner into an everyday role and they've also robbed the Yankees of power. The Yankees recently went three straight games without a home run (last Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday) and while that doesn't seem like a big deal, it was only the second time in the last three years they failed to hit a homer in three consecutive games. They've hit 16 homers in their last 17 games, or 0.94 per game. The MLB average is 1.29 homers per game. Yes, the Yankees have been winning despite the lack of home runs, but I'm not sure how sustainable that is in the juiced ball era and when you call Yankee Stadium home. It's like trying to win in today's NBA without taking three-pointers. Yeah, it can be done, but it's probably not a good idea. Like it or not, home runs are part of the Yankees' identity. They come with the territory given the division and ballpark (and ball). With Hicks back, the Yankees have four legitimate home run threats in Hicks, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres. Hopefully Clint Frazier snaps out of his post-injury slump (5-for-25 with eight strikeouts) soon and makes it five home run threats. You can't count on Gardner or DJ LeMahieu hitting homers though, ditto Gio Urshela, as great as he's been. Simply put, homers give the Yankees a greater margin of error. Stringing together three or four hits and walks in an inning score a run, maybe two, isn't easy in his era of high velocity and specialized defensive positioning. I mean, counting on Urshela to get the big hit game after game like he did last week doesn't seem very sustainable to me. Hopefully Hicks hits the ground running and Frazier snaps out of it soon, because the Yankees are really short on over-the-fence power right now. They've done well without it the last few weeks. Expecting it to continue seems overly optimistic given the state of baseball today.

4. German's workload. Without giving specifics, Brian Cashman recently confirmed Domingo German has a workload limit this season. "We have caps in play. Obviously, it is part of managing that is part of the program. We try to make sure safeties are on players to protect them," Cashman said to Joel Sherman. That doesn't surprise me. German has dealt with injuries throughout his career, which means a) he hasn't built up his innings, and b) he's more prone to injury going forward, at least in theory. (The best predictor of future injury is past injury.) Here are German's innings totals over the years:

• 2012: 22.1
• 2013: 67
• 2014: 123.1
• 2015: 0 (missed the season with Tommy John surgery)
• 2016: 49.2 (partial season returning from Tommy John surgery)
• 2017: 123.2
• 2018: 94
• 2019: 43.1 (and counting)

Okay, so he's thrown 120 innings in a season twice, which would seem to indicate he's good for 150 or so inning this year. The Yankees do not adhere to a hard "the maximum year-to-year increase is 30 innings" rule or anything like that. Each pitcher is unique and they play it by ear, watching for signs of fatigue and whatnot. German has thrown quite a few low stress innings this season and that could equal more innings down the road. Also, German will turn 27 in August, so while he'll still young, he's not that young. The Yankees might be more willing to extend him than they would a 22 or 23-year-old. In fact, pitching coach Larry Rothschild talked about just that recently. From Greg Joyce:

"He’s pitched for a while, so I think there’s less concern with a guy like that than with a guy that’s just hopped up onto the scene like Lo [Jonathan Loaisiga],” Rothschild said Wednesday before the Yankees  played host to the Mariners. “But he’s pitched for a while, and he has pitched some innings. So I think we’ll deal with that, we’ll take a look at it. We’re well aware of where he is, as far as what we need to do to manage it. We’ll take care of what we need to do and take a look at it as we go.”

Long story short, German has an innings limit, possibly around 150 innings or so, and it is something the Yankees will have to navigate going forward. Luis Severino will hopefully return no later than mid July. In that case, the Yankees could move German into a hybrid swingman role, where he makes the occasional spot start to give everyone else rest and maybe even piggybacks with CC Sabathia every fifth day. I know this much: The Yankees are not going to shut German down completely. They've shown these last few years with Severino and Jordan Montgomery that is not how they do things. They are trying to win and they're going to maximize German's innings somehow. They'll come up with a plan when the time comes. For now, German's workload is something to monitor and not worry about. It's on the radar.

5. Valera claim. In case you missed it, the Yankees claimed utility man Breyvic Valera off waivers from the Giants over the weekend, and assigned him to Triple-A Scranton. I am irrationally excited about the claim. Not as much as I was about the Ronald Torreyes pickup a few years ago, but more than I should be. In fact, I acquired Valera as part of my silly 2017-18 offseason plan two years ago. The 27-year-old is a .298/.370/.420 (111 wRC+) hitter in over 1,200 career Triple-A plate appearances -- Valera had a .257/.396/.338 (97 wRC+) line in 24 Triple-A games with San Francisco this year -- with excellent strikeout (8.3%) and walk (10.1%) numbers. (Yes, more walks than strikeouts. I don't have that backwards.) He's a switch-hitter, he plays solid defense, he has experience at every position except pitcher and catcher, and he has a minor league option for this season, so he can go up and down as needed. And he was basically free. Didn't give up anything to get him and didn't have to drop anyone from the 40-man roster. (Greg Bird was transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man spot, which means the earliest he can return is June 15th.) The Yankees are still dealing with a lot of injuries -- adding Valera certainly made more sense once we learned Miguel Andujar was going back on the injured list -- and adding free and versatile depth is never a bad idea. Squint your eyes and Valera has some upside as a switch-hitter with great contact ability and defensive versatility. As the 40th man on the 40-man roster, and potentially the 25th man on the 25-man roster, the Yankees could do a lot worse while dealing with these injuries. I like it. Nice little waiver claim (that will likely amount to nothing and this was all a waste of words).

6. Farquhar's return. Danny Farquhar returned to the mound last week. Dan Martin says Farquhar spent the last few weeks building arm strength in Tampa -- his velocity was down noticeably in Spring Training, which is understandable given the long layoff and everything he went through last season -- and last week he got into an Extended Spring Training game. Here is some video*. Figure a few games in Extended Spring Training and a few games across the street with High-A Tampa before going to Triple-A Scranton. The Dellin Betances injury has opened a bullpen spot and Betances is not due back anytime soon. "There’s no way (I'll be back in May) unless I become a superhero," he recently told Kristie Ackert. Could Farquhar beat Dellin back to replace, uh, Joe Harvey or Nestor Cortes or Chance Adams in the bullpen? It seems possible. Beyond the timing of it all, the question is whether the Yankees believe Farquhar can help them win, and whether they consider it worthwhile. Farquhar is out of minor league options. The Yankees can't simply send him back to Triple-A once Betances returns. It might not be worth adding him to the roster for a week or ten days until Dellin returns. All I know is Farquhar is back on the mound and healthy players are better than injured players. With the way this season has gone, the Yankees could have a slew of bullpen injuries by time Farquhar (and Betances) are big league ready, and this'll all take care of itself. Hopefully everyone stays healthy, Betances returns, and the Yankees can stash Farquhar in Triple-A as a depth option for later in the season. Either way, it would be great to see him in the Bronx at some point after the near-fatal brain hemorrhage last year, even as a September call-up. It'd be a wonderful story.

* Brendan Kuty says that is Anthony Seigler, last year's first round pick, catching Farquhar in the video. Seigler suffered a supposedly minor quad injury in Spring Training, so it's good to see him behind the plate. No word on when he'll join a full season minor league affiliate, though it would not be uncommon for a 19-year-old catcher to stay in Extended Spring Training until the short season leagues open in June.

7. Crawford's possible breakout. Outfielder Rashad Crawford, the fourth player in the Aroldis Chapman trade haul, hit a forgettable .230/.299/.320 (75 wRC+) with 22.9% strikeouts and 8.0% walks in 216 games following the trade through the end of last season. Those numbers came mostly at Double-A, though Crawford spent some time with High-A Tampa and Triple-A Scranton as well, and was even demoted to Extended Spring Training during a massive slump at one point. When the Yankees acquired him, Crawford was an athlete first and a baseball player second. He was trying to develop his natural tools into baseball skills, and through last season, it wasn't happening. This year though, Crawford owns a .299/.380/.411 (137 wRC+) batting line with 18.0% strikeouts and 10.7% walks with Double-A Trenton, and he recently told Sean Miller he spent the winter trying to understand his swing better:

“Pretty much everybody was saying the same thing, I just didn’t understand the terms of it," Crawford said. "Once I watched video and understanding the swing and how it actually works made it a lot easier for me.” 

“I watched a lot of video and spent some time in Tampa with a couple hitting coaches. Just trying to stay consistent where I was at (last season) and bring it to this year.” 

Double-A Trenton manager Patrick Osborn added: "He is starting to figure some things out ... We teach these guys to be their best coach because they have to make adjustments on the fly. That is a perfect example of it: Figure something out on his own, and it is working for him." Crawford turns 26 in October and he will always be a defense-first player. He can really go get the ball in center field. If he's started to figure things out offensively, Crawford could still carve out a career as a fourth outfielder, especially since he's a lefty hitter on the heavy side of the platoon. There's nothing glamorous about being a fourth outfielder, but it is a big league job, and it's a heck of a lot better than being a non-prospect. Guys like Keon Broxton and Niko Goodrum did not get their first real big league opportunity until they were 26, and they've managed to have some staying power. Why not Crawford? Either way, this is now Crawford's third straight season at Double-A. I'd like to see him bumped up to Triple-A Scranton at some point soon. The Yankees have gotten pretty good at this player development thing, so who knows, maybe he truly has figured some things out and can be an up-and-down player during his three minor league option years. Probably not, but maybe?

8. International draft coming? Last week Jeff Passan reported Latin American trainers are increasingly on board with an international amateur draft, something MLB has been chasing for years and years and years. Long story short, the trainers are worried about young children being exploited. From Passan:

In a recent meeting between MLB and those involved in the league's Trainer Partnership Program, a segment of buscónes  -- or the the trainers who find and prepare amateurs in the Dominican  Republic and Venezuela to sign as 16-year-olds -- lamented the rash of early agreements and said a draft would alleviate the pressure on pre-teens to vie for multimillion-dollar contracts. At least four players from the 2021-22 signing period struck deals with teams as 13-year-olds, according to sources familiar with the agreements, and the majority of elite players are committed to teams at 14.

The best players in the Dominican Republic often drop out of school as young as 10 and 11 to start training for baseball careers. The increasingly early age at which players agree to sign -- which is against MLB's rules that are rarely enforced -- has incentivized the use of performance-enhancing drugs on children in hopes that their mature-looking bodies will impress scouts enough to offer significant  signing bonuses. While the agreements are non-binding, teams fear that breaking a deal would have harsh repercussions with the buscónes who control the talent pipeline that accounts for nearly 30 percent of major league players and closer to half of minor leaguers.

This needs to be made perfectly clear: MLB has manufactured a problem and is floating an international draft as a solution. The league could enforce its own rules and crack down on early agreements. Instead, MLB is attempting to leverage its own lack of enforcement into a more favorable system. The point of an international draft is cutting costs. It has nothing to do with the distribution of talent. That's just a convenient cover story. MLB is looking to redirect money from the players to the owners, as always. There is an international hard spending cap now, yes, but players are free to negotiate with any team and get the best possible deal. That goes away with an international draft. The player can only negotiate with one team. MLB has let things get so bad with the Latin American amateur talent market that the trainers finally broke and are okay with an international draft. It's stunning. It really is. Make no mistake, MLB exploited places of poverty. They let things get so bad that now the solution is the thing that works best for the league and owners. It's so gross. I love baseball but I hate this stupid league.