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larrycheung

larrycheung

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larrycheung posts

August 31st Daily Market Note: Can Broadcom (AVGO) revitalize the AI Trade?

Hi Folks, here is my 8/31 Daily Market Note.

Daily Market Note: August 31st 2023 by Larry Cheung, CFA

Bulls turn what was originally a difficult August to one of hope for better days ahead

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: U.S Indices are set to close out August with very minor losses after the technology correction from the beginning of the month
  • Stock-Specific: U.S. Retail Thrift Shops continue its in...

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August 30th Daily Market Note: End-of-Month Bullish Push takes Indices near breakeven for the month, ahead of Difficult September Seasonality

Hi Folks, here is my 8/30 Daily Market Note, cheers!

Daily Market Note: August 30th 2023 by Larry Cheung, CFA

End-of-Month Bullish Push takes Indices near breakeven for the month, ahead of September

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: Continuation of releases related to softer data points (GDP/ADP Jobs Report/etc) reinforces downward pressure on the 10Y Yield, recalibrating equity valuations higher.
  • Stock...

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Re: Instructions to join Private Group Chat hosted on WhatsApp

Hi Folks,

I’ve received quite a few messages from the friends inside our Community on how to join the Private Group Chat on WhatsApp so wanted to send this note here to have everyone on the same page.

I put the instructions in a previous post here, but I will simplify them just so that we’re all on the same page. The Private Group Chat has been up and running sin...

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August 29th Daily Market Note: Bulls take the opportunity to claw back Bearish Advances in final week of August. One of our China positions soars.

Hi Folks, here is my Daily Market Note for 8/29.

Daily Market Note: August 29th 2023 by Larry Cheung, CFA

Bulls take the opportunity to claw back Bearish Advances in final week of August

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: Recent macro data on fewer job openings and softer consumer confidence combined with China stimulus resurfaces the goldilocks scenario on a Fed Pause – sending stocks notably higher.
  • ...

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August 28th Daily Market Note: Stable Jackson Hole meeting provides a window of opportunity for stocks to recover in final week of August

Hi Folks,

Here is my August 28th Daily Market Note with PDF Attached.

Daily Market Note: August 28th 2023 by Larry Cheung, CFA

Stable Jackson Hole meeting provides a window of opportunity for stocks to recover in final week of August

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: Shrugging off NVDA’s post-earnings fade and Jerome’s Jackson Hole higher-for-longer rates narrative is quite constructive for markets in this final week of August....

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August 24th Daily Market Note: Tech experiences a large reversal and the Retail sector sentiment is dampened further by Dollar Tree

Hi Folks, 

Here is today's Daily Market Note for August 24th. 

Daily Market Note: August 24th 2023 by Larry Cheung, CFA

Tech experiences a large reversal and the Retail sector sentiment is dampened further by Dollar Tree

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: Large investors fade the market’s opening strength ahead of Jackson Hole tomorrow
  • Stock-Specific: We saw an opportunit...

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August 23rd Daily Market Note: A Downside Revised Jobs Report Plummets the 10Y Yield, jolting re-acceleration of tech recovery

Hi Folks! Here is my Daily Market Note for 8/23.

Just a reminder to join our Private Group Chat on Whatsapp so that you don't miss any updates. I do not use Discord. Anyone who messages you on Discord is impersonating me. Do not fall for scams please.

Daily Market Note: Augu...

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August 22nd Daily Market Note: Pre-Earnings Rally in NVDA becomes contested and lack of market leadership stalls rally

Hi Folks, 

Here is my Daily Market Note for today!

Daily Market Note: August 22nd 2023 by Larry Cheung, CFA

Pre-Earnings Rally in NVDA becomes contested and lack of market leadership stalls rally

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: The U.S. Retail Sector is spooked by Dick Sporting Good’s profit warning and aggressive slashing of prices to clear out inventory. Retail is one of the most important secto...

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Trading Community Onboarding Information: Welcome to my Signal Service Private Group Chat

Members! I hope you are doing well!

The Signal Service Private Group Chat hosted on Whatsapp is ready for you to join. Scroll down to the bottom of the PDF attachment below, and you will see instructions there for you to join. The original email is from Substack here, which I will also post: https://larrycheung.substack.com/p/trading-community-onboardi...

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Daily Market Note: August 21st 2023 - Tech Stocks attempted a technical rebound led by Tesla and NVDA in the context of higher yields

Hi Folks, hope you had a great weekend!

Be on the lookout for an email tomorrow on the Private Group Chat instructions that I will send out. :)

Here is today's Daily Market Note.

Daily Market Note: August 21st 2023 by Larry Cheung, CFA

Tech Stocks attempted a technical rebound led by Tesla and NVDA in the context of higher yields

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: U.S. Tech...

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August 17th Daily Market Note: Massive Bond Selloff Is Sowing Seeds for Further Market Disruption

Hi Folks!

Hope you are doing well!

Here is my Daily Market Note for August 16th 2023 with PDF attached below.

Sector Rotation Intensifies Away from Big Tech and Into Defensive Areas as Yields Push Higher

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: Yields across the long-end of the Yield Curve (10, 20, 30Y) all continue to drift higher. This is causing discount rates in DCF models to move higher...

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August 16th Daily Market Note: The Next Big Move comes after Traders Decide on Rates Direction

Good morning Folks, hope everyone is doing well today!

Here is today's Daily Market Note for August 16th 2023

Title: Markets wait for FOMC commentary for clues on Rates and Monetary Policy

This is an early session note sent out as I have obligations to attend to in the afternoon.

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: Longer-term yields (20Y and 30Y) continue their drift higher, and th...

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August 15th Daily Market Note: Markets face further pressure from Rates, China, and Banking downgrades.

Note: A quick announcement - I am visiting Mainland China between September 14th and September 30th. Because of time zone differences and difficulty accessing U.S. websites, I will most likely be out of the office and formal publication schedule will resume when I’m back. If I can get in any periodic informal update (if the internet will cooperate), I certainly will.

To thank my Members for their flexibility, I will be hosting an Options Bootcamp (I am a Net Seller of Opt...

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8/14 Daily Market Note: Stocks continue the tug of war against the 10-Year Treasury Yield with No Clear Winner Yet

Hi Folks, hope you had a great weekend. Below you will find the Daily Market Note as well as PDF attached. 

Daily Market Note: August 14th 2023

Stocks continue the tug of war against the 10-Year Treasury Yield: No Clear Winner Yet

Folks, the guided upon Sell Puts transactions are mostly working well as of this note. However, volatility is starting to creep back into sessions so practice incredible caution and closely guard capital.

Forwar...

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August 10th Daily Market Note: U.S. Headline CPI appears to find a bottoming process in the 3% region - a pivotal macro turning point

Hi Folks - here is the 8/10 Daily Market Note, with PDF attached if you want to view it that way. 

Daily Strat Note: August 10th 2023

U.S. Headline CPI appears to find a bottoming process in the 3% region

Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:

  • Macro: U.S Headline CPI appears to find an equilibrium in the ~3% region, with housing leading the driving force in the headline figure reaccelerating...

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August 9th Daily Market Note: Most Likely a Range Bound Session ahead of CPI Tomorrow

Hi Folks,

I’m out traveling to visit family, so today’s letter is going to be in a pre-market note. Once the group chat is formed, I will be sending pre-market updates such as this every morning for the folks in the Private Group Chat.

Pre-Market Update (8/9)

Good morning. Yesterday we saw a very powerful bounce off the intraday lows in U.S. Markets and this continuation followed through into the Asia session with the Hang Sang in positive territory despite gr...

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August 8th Daily Market Note: China's Economic Woes and Banking Worries Clash with Investor Optimism

Hi Folks,

Here is the Daily Market Note for August 8th, 2023 attached in PDF Format below. 

Once again, you can expect updates from me going forward from Monday through Thursday in this fashion.

A lot of folks have told me they love the new format. If you have any thoughts to share at all feel free to text me on Instagram. My Patreon Members are my longest standing people, so your opinion is always valued.

Also - I have restructured the resource l...

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August 7th Daily Market Note: Will Apple bring down the entire market? Unlikely.

Hi Folks!

Hope you all had a great weekend.

Here is the Daily Market Note for August 7th, 2023 attached in PDF Format below. Once again, you can expect updates from me going forward from Monday through Thursday in this fashion.

A lot of folks have told me they love the new format. If you have any thoughts to share at all feel free to text me on Instagram. My Patreon Members are my longest standing people, so your opinion is always valued. 

Also - ...

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August 3rd Daily Note: A New Volatility Regime is upon us, but the Bear is not yet back.

Hi Folks!

I'm back with the Daily Market Note for August 3rd, 2023 attached in PDF Format below. You can expect updates from me going forward from Monday through Thursday in this fashion. 

I hope you like the new format! I've spent quite a bit of time framing my content for the busy professional/student/parent in mind. 

My Community members on Patreon have been with me the longest, so I value your opinion if you have any commentary to share with me...

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Exciting and Mega Important Announcement: Community Upgrade Revamp Coming in 20 Days. Get Ready.

Friends, 

If you are a long-time Patreon Community member, know that I remember you from the early days of 2022 when I was just getting started in creating my Investment Community. 

Your support has been instrumental to the development of our network, and I appreciate you for your continued support. 

I have tremendous news for you today. And I hope this makes your day.

By now, if you're on my public email list on Substack, you may have seen that I sent o...

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DCF Model Analysis: I'm going to be loading up on META on the next crater.

Members, 

Our watchlist of referenced names mentioned in previous weekly letters have been doing very well, and I will continue to hunt for bargains in this market. I continue to think this market is very overheated, so I will have to be much more selective in discussing ideas.

Key Takeaway of this report (attached below):

This week's premium strategy letter will be a DCF Conclusions Analysis on Meta. Longer-term (looking out around 3 years), I see Meta reaching the 450...

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July Fundamental Analysis Note: Using Netflix, Tesla, TSM, and American Express to forecast what's coming next for markets

Members & Friends, 

I hope you are all having a great weekend. Welcome back to another Strategy Letter - this one is focused on Fundamental Analysis now that we have entered earnings season. 

I will be using NFLX, TSLA, TSM, and AXP earnings to assess what this means for the fundamental picture and the market's next move. 

This letter is quite comprehensive because I have included quite a bit of blurbs fro...

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Quick Community Alert: Be careful of impersonators who pretend to be me.

Folks, 

It's come to my attention that someone (or a group of people) are constantly using Discord, Whatsapp, Telegram, Twitter, or other Social Media to pretend to be me and message my members directly 1:1 regarding trading services/crypto services.

They have setup their accounts to have the same name/profile photo as me and can be quite convincing. 

Just a kind remember that I will not initiate a message to folks directly 1:1 on social media to discuss these type...

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July Technical Analysis Premium Strat: Which names in the Market to watch & follow for tactical opportunity with upside remaining?

Members

I worked extra hard on this weekly note to get it out early to you since I'm flying out to D.C. this weekend to speak at a Real Estate Conference for the National Fair Housing Association.

So folks, here we are with another Weekly Premium Note! This one is action packed and centered around clean Technical Analysis on both U.S. and China themes. 

Each week throughout the month (I send premium analysis on the Weekends), I rotate among Macro, Technical, Fundamental...

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July Macro Strat: Once Bears fully Capitulate, this Rally will not only end but the reversal shall be swift.

Members, 

This weekend's Strategy note is now released below! The topic this week is centered around Macro.

In this note, I talk about the following:

  • Potential winners and beneficiaries of China’s latest restrictions of non-rare earth metals
  • The implication of Janet Yellen’s visit to China - what this may do to Treasuries (TLT)
  • A brief discussion on whether Alibaba’s latest ANT Group $1B fine marks another constructive turning point for the...

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Resources: Weekly Investment Research Dashboard Link

Hi Folks, 

Just so that everyone has convenient access to the Dashboard, here is the Weekly Dashboard Link. The current password is 4800. 

It's updated every Sunday Evening (Eastern Standard Time) before the market opens on Monday. A new excel file is created every Sunday.

There isn't an email sent out when it's updated- but you wi...

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Investment Strategy: Rally Continuation or Reversal of Fortunes? My perspective on 1H 2023 and Forecast into 2H 2023

Members, 

Hope you had a great July 4th Holiday!

As we enter 2H 2023, I wanted to provide a recap of the first half of 2023 and provide initial expectations on themes I follow for the second half of the year. 

The Strategy note is attached in PDF format below!

Best,
Larry

P.S - I can only check 1:1 messages sparingly & periodically throughout the week because I'm researching during weekends and market hours to provide you thoughtful commentar...

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China Macro Investment Strategy: Understanding the upcoming Taiwan Presidential Elections to inform our longer-term positioning

Members, 

For my July Investment Strategy note, I have a special update regarding the upcoming Taiwan Presidential Elections coming up in January 2024.

Inside this note, I provide investor education on how to follow the developments as well as scenario analysis on how to view China & Semis depending on the progress that certain Parties make in the election polls. 

Best

Larry

P.S - I can only check 1:1 messages sparingly & periodically thro...

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U.S. & China Investment Opinion (Briefing): 2H 2023 Will Not Be So Easy

Members & Friends, 

I have a tactical strategy update with the following discussion items: 

  • Geopolitics on U.S. - China Relations Reset: Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China - my opinion on Investment implications
  • Technical Analysis Update on U.S. Markets: Intermarket analysis and key levels to be paying attention to as markets potentially roll over
  • U.S Macro Commentary: My opi...

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DCF Modeling: Assessing Tesla's Upside and Downside after reaching a Feverish Overbought Level using Fundamental Analysis and Modeling

Members,

Hope you're enjoying this long weekend and Father's Day! As we prepare for the weeks ahead, I've done fundamental analysis on Tesla to reverse engineer implied growth rates and EBITDA margin expectations. 

This will give us a check on the market's sentiment barometer. 

The Weekly Dashboard will be updated on Dropbox before markets reopen on Tuesday. 

Best,

Larry

P.S - Tell friends and Fam about our Community. I appreciate the gre...

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