We're keeping things going in the early season with a new perk (and one which I have heard from a lot of people about wanting): a comprehensive set of team-level scatterplots.
Here's the link! Please do not share with non-Patrons.
We've got
Got some more fun 2021 season content here for you guys, and I think this one is a lot of fun. We've got 2021 Team Cards.
This is something I've wanted to do for a while and I think now - while...
2021-01-30 20:16:25 +0000 UTC View Post
Here's the link! (Please do not share with non-subscribers if you want me to keep making these)
Next up in my Tableau viz series are player on-ice stats. There are seven different visualizations included in here. These can be filtered and highlighted wit...
2021-01-21 18:43:07 +0000 UTC View Post
TOI% Quality of Competition and Teammates Link
(No access request necessary, but I request that you please not share this link with non-subscribers or on social media. I would like to keep doing Tableau stuff and a ...
2021-01-19 20:29:23 +0000 UTC View PostThe 2020-21 season is actually starting in two days - it's crazy. With that in mind I thought it would be a good idea to update what my plans are in terms of updating and putting out perks for this coming season.
First thing's first. For RAPM or WAR to work, it needs a reasonable sample size. A model trained on 5 or 10 games will be essentially useless and more misleading than revealing. With that in mind, it will likely be a little while before updated player stats will be available fo...
2021-01-11 13:53:56 +0000 UTC View Post
I'm very happy to present the WAR Roster Builder which has stronger projections and more features included than either of the first two I released. Click the link and request access and I will grant it right away.
The first big change of course is from th...
2021-01-03 18:14:44 +0000 UTC View Post
After dropping the forward timelines yesterday, I'm excited to follow that up with the new defencemen ones today.
They are available at this link. Click on it and request access, which I will approve.
Defencemen are evaluated using the same WAR mode...
2020-12-29 18:25:53 +0000 UTC View Post
Like I said a few days ago, this week is all about updating and reuploading previous perks with new and improved data. The timelines are near and dear to my heart, and the forward timelines are now available.
Here is the link to request access.
<... 2020-12-28 17:36:23 +0000 UTC View Post
Merry Christmas!
I'm very happy that I can finally offer my full interactive Player Cards to you guys. This has been a long time coming but with my partnership with Patrick Bacon of TopDownHockey in full swing I have much more flexibility in what I can make accessible to you fine people.
Hey guys,
You might have seen on my Twitter that I announced a new partnership with Patrick Bacon, also known as TopDownHockey. He's a stats modeller and a very good friend of mine who has built a cutting-edge WAR model that you can read about here. It makes some very welcome adjustments that I've talked about previously and in my opinion represents an improveme...
2020-12-24 03:14:13 +0000 UTC View Post
(Link Temporarily Taken Down - See Post Here)
Excited to roll this out. The WAR Roster Builder has gotten a major update which should make it easier to use and a lot more accurate.
Changes include:
Now that free agency has settled down, I have gone through and edited all of the classic player cards, available to $5+ subscribers. These include a number of updates, including:
Very excited about this one, the first of many collaborations with Patrick Bacon of TopDownHockey. This card is the only place where you can see isolated impact stats divided by the first and second half of the season.
This spreadsheet contains forward and defence visualizations for 1st and 2nd half RAPM. Thanks to TopDownHockey, for the first time you'll be able to see how a ...
2020-11-20 17:09:16 +0000 UTC View Post
This is going to be a big week on this site, as I'm going to be adding a lot of new perks and updates in the next few days. This is the first one: a defenceman percentile timeline sheet.
Here is the link. In order to avoid what happened last time, when my email account was briefly listed as spam because I sent so many invitations, you will have to request access to the sheet. I will be sure to...
2020-11-16 19:21:01 +0000 UTC View Post
It's a long time coming, but the update to the WAR Roster Generator (now Builder) is here.
I've sent invites to the Patreon email list, but if you didn't receive one please request access here: (Link Temporarily Taken Down - See Post Here)
The main new f...
2020-10-21 16:40:36 +0000 UTC View Post
Hot off the presses (and just in time for free agent frenzy), something I've wanted to put out there for a while. This sheet allows you to see how any free agent skater contract might work out based on their projected Wins Above Replacement and an age curve. It gives you the option to test any cap hit for any UFA or RFA skater who played over 200 minutes this season and check out their estimated on-...
2020-10-08 21:41:11 +0000 UTC View PostHey guys! I have noticed that some new subscribers have not requested access to the perks they're entitled to - possibly because they're not aware of where to find them. With that in mind, here's a reminder of how to get them.
Follow the links below. The perks hosted on Google Sheets require you to request access. This is super easy - once you open the link you just click "Request Access" and it'll send me an email so I can immediately approve it.
(If you already have access to al...
2020-09-16 17:58:01 +0000 UTC View Post
New historical portrait cards are live for $5 and up subscribers. These allow you to see how any forward or defenceman since 2007-08 played according to Wins Above Replacement in any of the past twelve seasons. You can also see three-year weighted results as well to get a broader look at a player's performance.
(Player portraits are scraped from TSN.ca, which meanst that some sadly aren'...
2020-07-21 17:11:24 +0000 UTC View PostHey guys! I've gotten a few notes from people who haven't received an invite to access certain perks. Previously I've had to add everyone's emails manually, which could sometimes lead to typos or invitations ending up in the spam folder. So I'm going to use this post as a bit of a hub. I've added all the emails I have on file to these documents, but please request editing access if you don't have it when you open the sheets.
(If you already have access to all perks, disregard)
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You might have seen my new player cards on Twitter. They look like this:
Because they don't contain any paywalled data (only percentiles), I can give spreadsheet access instead of just images like I do with the other player cards. I have added each of your email addresses to have editing access, but in case you didn't receive that notification the link is here:
(Link Temporarily T...
2020-06-29 00:54:55 +0000 UTC View PostI'm going to be doing some stuff with this in the near future but I figure you guys deserve a first look for all the support you've given me.
The sheet linked here contains contract rankings of forwards, defencemen, and goalies using two kinds of WAR:
1. Projected on-ice WAR over the remaining length of their contract using an age curve.
2. Projected Cap Surplus WAR - this is connected to the market WAR value on the player cards. When a player is paid below his actual (or pr...
2020-06-15 02:03:34 +0000 UTC View Post
The Selke trophy is very similar to the Norris - it judges defensive play, which is very difficult to assess comparatively, and it tends to be based more on reputation than actual performance. A lot of the time people tend to argue it should go to players who seem like they deserve it, regardless of whether they were truly the best defensive forward in the league.
Once again...
2020-05-05 20:09:04 +0000 UTC View PostIt's often said that the key difference between the NHL and NBA is that in hockey you need a team more than a superstar to win. Because even the best hockey players play less than half the game, it's harder to market the NHL based on stars, and depth is far more important. But what if it wasn't? What if an NHL starter played 34 minutes out of a 48 minute game time? What if there were only 9 men on a rotation instead of a packed bench of 20 players? These are questions nobody has asked, and no...
2020-04-30 00:28:14 +0000 UTC View Post
Is there any NHL award debate as vicious as the Norris? Because stats that actually measure defensive play are mostly unknown to anyone but a small subset of hockey fans, Norris arguments are almost always a swirling hellhole of points and hearsay that usually end in hurt feelings and nobody changing their minds. Comparing defencemen is so difficult that even some of the advanced metrics we...
2020-04-28 21:05:28 +0000 UTC View Post
The NHL's All-Decade starting goalie. NHL.com's 12th ranked goalie of the expansion era. Surefire Hockey Hall of Famer according to Sportsnet, the Hockey News, and just about everyone else. 3rd best in the league according to the NHLPA and 6th best according to NHL.com. Marc-Andre Fleury has piled up accolades in the past year. As he climbs the career wins chart, it looks like his le...
2020-04-16 18:23:07 +0000 UTC View Post
GM of the Year is a weird award. While all the other awards are for work done within a season (although someone should tell Norris voters that), building a team is inherently a multiyear process. It can be hard to differentiate between the job that a GM did in one year and the overall work he has done to build a contending team. Which is why I'm going to try to get around that issue.
The 2019-20 NHL regular season is apparently finished, which means there's plenty of time to focus on the most important thing going on in the world right now: voting for the NHL Awards. These conversations have been especially contentious this year because so many of the races are close. Most are voted for by the media, and PHWA members have made their picks pretty clear - and I think a l...
2020-04-14 00:01:55 +0000 UTC View PostA continuation of part 1.
#6 - Ilya Kovalchuk
Months ago, Kovalchuk was a league minimum cast-off that nobody wanted. Now he's a vaunted-after deadline target. Since finding a new role on the Canadiens, Kovalchuk has turned it around, re-emerging as a good middle-six winger. His defensive competence is a surprise; his decent production is less-so. GMs be warned: yo...
2020-02-13 20:14:33 +0000 UTC View PostThis public blog post will explain how to read, understand, and draw meaning from my forward player cards. They are designed to communicate complex information clearly and quickly, but if you don't understand some analytics terms there still might be a bit of a learning curve. So I'm going to go step-by-step.
The header is self-explanatory - player name, the team he plays for, and the position...
2020-02-13 18:31:28 +0000 UTC View Post(This is a public post to preview the work that will be available to all subscriber tiers)
This year's trade deadline looks to be one of the more boring ones in recent memory (and that's saying something - who could forget the Mikkel Boedker sweepstakes). The combination of a long-overdue frugality around first round picks and a weak rental class means that there are few true impact players on the market. Nonetheless, we're all going to watch it anyway, so we might as well try to unders...
2020-02-12 22:02:17 +0000 UTC View Post