Thoughts the day before Game 3 of the 2025 ALDS

Since Wild Cards became a thing in 1995, seven teams have erased a 2-0 deficit in the Division Series, including the Yankees twice. They did it against the Athletics in 2001 (the Derek Jeter Flip Play series) and also against Cleveland in 2017. Those 2017 Yankees are the last team to make a 2-0 comeback, and the only uniformed personnel remaining from that club are Aaron Judge and bullpen coach Mike Harkey. Time flies, eh?

“We approach (Game 3) like we have really all season, but even more specifically, the last 6-8 weeks where we feel like we've been playing with a lot on the line every single day,” Aaron Boone said during Monday's workout. “We'll go into our hitters meeting and it's about win today, period, and not getting ahead of that. And even keeping it smaller than that. It's about going up and trying to win every pitch. Keep it small.”

The Yankees got stuffed in a locker in Games 1 and 2 (outscored 23-8 and outhomered 8-1), but they are fully capable of winning the next three games. Do I expect it? No, I can’t say that I do, but it’s not impossible. Good teams win three games in a row and good teams lose three games in a row all the time. Here are the updated ZiPS odds:

Pull out all the stops to win Game 3, beat Toronto’s planned bullpen game in Game 4, then anything can happen in Game 5. That’s how this series turns around. I wrote a quick, basic thing at CBS about what needs to happen for the Yankees to complete the comeback. Here now are a few thoughts leading into Game 3 Wednesday night (Rodón vs. Shane Bieber at 8pm ET on FS1).

1. It starts with Rodon. Hard-hitting analysis incoming: Carlos Rodón must pitch well in Game 3, otherwise it’s curtains. Luis Gil and Max Fried gave the Yankees no chance in Games 1 and 2 (5.2 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 3 HR combined) and they don’t have the bullpen to survive another non-competitive start. Rodón doesn’t need to be great, but he does need to be good. The better he is, the better the chances to extend the series.

“He's been obviously one of our horses this year,” Boone said about Rodón on Monday. “He's had a great year, and any time we give him the ball, we feel like we have an excellent chance to win. That will be the same tomorrow. He'll be ready to roll and hopefully get us off to a good start.”

Seven teams have erased a 2-0 deficit in the Division Series and the common thread is a great starting pitching performance in Game 3. We saw it in 2017. Masahiro Tanaka threw seven shutout innings and Greg Bird did the thing against Andrew Miller. Here are the Game 3 starts in those 2-0 comebacks:

The Mussina start was the Flip Play game. The Flip Play itself was obviously a great play, though it always irks me that context isn’t provided. The Yankees were facing elimination! They won the game 1-0! I’m not the biggest Jeter fan in the world but the game/series situation only makes the Flip Play cooler! Anyway, yeah, a 2-0 comeback starts with a great Game 3 pitching performance. It is the tried-and-true path to success.

Rodón faced the Blue Jays twice during the regular season and was just okay, going five innings with two earned runs both times. Toronto worked him hard (107 and 96 pitches), though I will note both games were in Rogers Centre, and the Blue Jays are a different team in Toronto. Look at this:

• Home: 52-27 (+94 run diff.) with a .271/.340/.448 (120 wRC+) line

• Road: 40-41 (-17 run diff.) with a .260/.327/.407 (105 wRC+) line

Just about every team is better at home, but the Blue Jays are way better at home. They’re a juggernaut in Toronto and an average team on the road. Rodón was okay in his two starts in Toronto this summer. He has yet to face them in the Bronx. I have no idea if that’ll make a difference, but the Yankees and Rodón really need it to. Rodón has to be good and Yankee Stadium has to be an advantage.

2. The batters behind Judge. Aaron Judge is hitting .444/.524/.500 (198 wRC+) with a 19.0 K% this postseason, which is objectively great, though it has been a lot of low impact singles with one wretched bases loaded strikeout in ALDS Game 1 mixed in. Another number of note: Two, as in Judge has scored two runs in five postseason games despite a .524 OBP (11 times on base in five games).

Obviously Judge not hitting any home runs plays a role in his OBP not converting into runs, but also the guys hitting behind him have been awful when he's on base. Here are the 11 times Judge has reached base this postseason, and how the inning played out after that.

Wild Card Series Game 1
1st inning: Walk to put runners on first and second with no outs. Next two batters strike out and GIDP.
9th inning: Single to put runners on first and second with no outs. Next batter singled to load the bases, then strikeout, fly out, strikeout.

Wild Card Series Game 2
3rd inning: Single to put runners on first and second with one out. Next two batters fly out.
5th inning: Single with two outs. Next batter grounded out.

Wild Card Series Game 3
4th inning: Hit by pitch to load the bases with two outs. Next batter flew out.

ALDS Game 1
1st inning: Single with one out. Next two batters flew out and struck out.
8th inning: Double with one out. Next two batters popped up and flew out.

ALDS Game 2
1st inning: Walk with one out. Next two batters struck out.
6th inning: Single with two outs. Next batter homered, then a single, double, and strikeout.
7th inning: Single with one out. Rest of the inning went sac fly, double, single, ground out.
9th inning: Walk with one out. Rest of the inning went ground out, walk, strikeout.

Judge has reached base 11 times this postseason and the batters to hit after him in the inning are a combined 6-for-25 (.240) with two doubles, a homer, a sac fly, eight strikeouts, and a double play. Hey, a .240 AVG isn’t bad these days, but five of those six hits were bunched together Sunday. There were way too many unproductive at-bats behind Judge this postseason up until the sixth inning of ALDS Game 2.

Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Giancarlo Stanton have hit directly behind Judge this postseason and they are a combined 11-for-54 (.204) in the five games. That ain’t gonna cut it. Judge has to start hitting the ball out of the park too, at some point this guy needs to show up and be the player in a series, but he can’t do it alone. He’s getting on base. A lot. The rest of the Yankees have to start driving him in more. Maybe the sixth and seventh innings Sunday are a sign the tide is turning. I hope it is.

3. Where are the walks? Trey Yesavage, last year’s No. 20 overall pick, was just nasty Sunday. It’s an unusual arm angle with that nasty splitter. It’s not just the Yankees. No one has been able to lay off it this year. Yesavage threw 29 splitters in Game 2, the Yankees swung at 16, and missed 11 times. And once they started to lay off it the second time through the lineup, he threw it for strikes. Tough, man.

Yesavage was great, but also, we’re five games into the postseason, and the Yankees have drawn 10 walks. They led baseball with a 10.2 BB% during the regular season and it’s down to 5.5% in October. Their chase rate is way up too. Walks go down and chases go up league-wide in the postseason, but the Yankees have taken it to the extreme:

MLB regular season: 8.4 BB% and 28.1% chases
MLB postseason: 7.7 BB% and 31.6% chases

NYY regular season: 10.2 BB% and 25.6% chases
NYY postseason: 5.5 BB% and 31.3% chases

The Yankees had the highest walk rate and second lowest chase rate during the regular season. Now that walk rate has been cut in half, and the chase rate is up around the postseason average. Yesavage’s (and Kevin Gausman’s) splitter doesn’t explain the elevated chase rate either. It was 31.8% in the Wild Card Series. Everyone chases more in October. The Yankees are chasing A LOT more.

Walks and plate discipline are a big part of the offense. It’s baserunners, it’s longer innings, it’s stress on the pitcher, and it just hasn’t been there five games into the postseason. It’s easier said than done, believe me I know, but I can’t say I’m surprised the Yankees are on the verge of elimination when they’ve hit three home runs and have a 5.5 BB% five games into the postseason. This isn’t their offensive identity at all.

4. Warren’s availability and roster status. Will Warren allowed six runs in Game 2 and the Yankees lost by six runs, which ain’t easy on the eyes, but you know that loss isn’t on Warren. Without those six runs against Warren, the Blue Jays would've used their bullpen differently, the Yankees wouldn’t have faced the soft underbelly, they probably don’t score those seven runs, etc.

Anyway, Warren threw 84 pitches in Game 2, which does not necessarily mean he’s burned for the series. Game 3 would be his usual between-starts bullpen day, so, if necessary, the Yankees could squeeze an inning out of him that day (or in Game 4). Warren would be on full rest for Game 5 too. Obviously those will be win or go home games and you don’t want to use your No. 5 starter in Games 3-5, but who knows what’ll happen.

The Yankees can’t drop Warren from the ALDS roster without an injury, and MLB must review and approve all injury substitutions in the postseason. You can’t just say hey, this guy has an achy shoulder, we need a fresh pitcher. If you could, teams would do it all the time. Also, anyone removed from the roster for an injury reason is not eligible to play in the next round, so Warren would be wiped out for the ALCS (not that it would be a huge deal).

Warren did not pitch well in Game 2 and not using an actual reliever to escape that fourth inning jam was a big mistake on Boone’s part, but what’s done is done. Warren did at least chew up some innings and spare the rest of the bullpen. We know David Bednar can get 4-5 outs, if necessary. Can Devin Williams? I hope so. Rodón to Hi Lev Dev to Bednar is the ideal, realistic pitching plan for Game 3.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Boone teased a potential lineup change for Game 3 during Monday’s workout. I assume it would be Paul Goldschmidt over Rice given Bieber’s big reverse split this year, but who really knows. Maybe they’ll dust the cobwebs off Jasson Domínguez (crowd laughs) … The .273 AVG and .333 OBP are good and I’ve been impressed with Ryan McMahon’s at-bats. He’s also cut his strikeout rate in half (32.3 K% regular season and 16.7 K% postseason). I’m certain he’s had similar low-strikeout five-game stretches during the regular season, so let's not make too much of it yet. Props to McMahon for doing it on the biggest stage he’s ever experienced … And finally, some numbers on the ridiculousness of postseason pitching:

• Regular season: 93.6 mph average fastball and 83.6 mph average breaking ball

• Postseason: 95.4 mph average fastball and 84.7 mph average breaking ball

It’s just a different game in October. The average fastball is up close to 2 mph (!) and the average breaking ball is up 1 mph. Through 34 postseason games, the league is hitting .233/.301/.372 (89 wRC+). The postseason is an entire league of late career Marcus Semiens (.230/.305/.364  and 89 wRC+ in 2025).

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. I will get to them as I can during the postseason. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)