~ July 2021 - Mid Month Updates ~
Added 2021-07-21 02:02:02 +0000 UTCIt is that time of the month already!
We are now about 60 days into a bear/weak market since the market peaked.
Unlike last month, i am starting to notice some categories in the CCG world showing signs of stabilizing. Specifically in Pokemon sealed boxes and FaB sealed boxes. Not ready to call a bottom yet, but it is encouraging.
MTG - Reserved List - Big money and collectors continue to choose this as the primary location to park money and has the highest level of confidence still. Excluding Revised edition cards the RL is holding up incredibly well. With average buylist prices reduced around 10%-15% from the all time highs. This is a very small pullback considering the 100%-200% gains in the last 18 months. I feel this is still the king of all CCG investing.
MTG - Sealed Boxes VINTAGE - This category has shown a lot of price adjustments downward. Boxes like Revised are off about 40% from the highs. Boxes like Tempest/Stronghold/Exodus also show about 30% off fromm the highs. But overall prices are very stable now and i havent seen any furhter buylist or low priced transactions. This is a category that will probably be a market leader and recover before other areas.
MTG - Sealed Boxes - MODERN - To my surprise, newer sealed product and anything Modern related that is out of print at this point in time, has not showed any price declines. This is shocking, i have never seen anything like this is previous market downturns. The market believes millions of sealed boxes are being held in investor collections, i firmly believe the market is wrong. I firmly believe the attitude that everyone has tons of sealed product is simply false. Coming out of 2020 and massive monthly new releases, has created a situation where LESS sealed product exists in each booster box. Only time will tell.
MTG - Modern horizons 2 - This is still the strongest product release i have seen in a long time. Thie high price is justified, considering the sheer volume of cards of imporance in the box. The only reason the prices are flat to negative is due to restocks coming and the overall market being weak. God help the market when it is announced to be out of print. Extremly bright future long term.
MTG - Kaldheim - I wouldnt be surprised if wizards ends this print run early, after the initial strong sales at release, kaldheim is the worst selling standard set according to distributors and also my own patron data since Core 2021. Definitly bullish long term. Very few people are going to sit on sealed kaldheim in a world with so many options.
MTG - D&D - Product is still brand new. Not enough data, but overall market seems unhappy with it. But keep in mind, this is a core sete replacement. But everything feels weak coming off MH2.
Pokemon - Vintage - I still highly recomend staying away from graded pokemon single cards. The baglog of literally a million graded pokemon cards pending to hit the market in the coming year is way to dangerous. I wouldnt buy any pokemon graded or vintage singles in the current market.
Pokemon - Vintage - Sealed - This is a category that will hold up a lot better since A LOT of vintage sealed product was cracked during this huge influencer/youtube live stream boom/bust. The remaining sealed product is now more rare...and now dropping in price. THis is an area to watch. We could be at or near a bottom before the end of the year.
Pokemon - Modern - Sealed - I feel Battle Styles and moving forward will have cheap boxes again. Around $100-$120 a box. I dont expect to see $200 box prices again on any new product. I feel this is a good thing as the world normalizes. Dont pull a Rudy and quit pokemon for 2 years....you will regret it. I sure did :-(
FaB - 1st edition boxes - WTR + ARC + CRU boxes appear to be flatlining. Based on the future announcements and direction of the game and Tales. I stand by the quality of the game and the management of the game. It will stand the test of time.
FaB - Monarch 1st edition - In the last 7 days, i have seem t he first signs of market balance. Total supply (Tcgplayer+Ebay=Total Supply) is finally dropping day over day. In the last 4 days, the amount of people contacting me to sell monarch 1st edition has dropped off and prices appear to be reinflating back to the $300 range. The amount of negativitiy towards FaB and monarch is at a record high, this is historically the sign of "Capitulation".
Make fun of me all you want, My price target has not changed, Monarch 1st edition is a $1k box within 12 months. Goal is 3,000 1st edition boxes. 57% achieved.
FaB - Negativity - The extreme amount of hate towards the game is still unlike anything i have seen in modern times. The 2 main attacks continue to be "no one plays the game" and "investors control everything" Both of which are suspiciously aggressive and inaccurate. Data shows 90%+ of all sold cards/boxes on ebay/tcgplayer are ONLY unlimited versions. Less than 10% of all transactions are actually high end cold foil/1st edition items. Data shows the exact opposite. I like the game. I stand by the game.
Fab - Monarch Unlimited Promotion - This friday night 7/23/2021 @ 9:00pm EST is the long awaited Monarch unlimited bundle. The amount of negativity is the highest since the original alpha launch 2 years ago. Based on this, i have decided to up the quantity allowed to be purchased above 1 per patron. This will be a great test to see if players truely dont want the product.
MetaZoo - We are bout 2 weeks out from the big launch! The excitement for this product release is far greater than i expected. I was skeptical months ago when this was originally discussed. This item will sell out fast and includes multiple exclusive items. I paid $8,000.00 just to have the exclusive items produced. So i hope you guys like them :-)
Weiss - Sealed boxes - Weiss is still my biggest regret for giving no attention over the last couple years. The amount of missed opportunity is depressing. I was not open minded enough to give this game the respect and time it deserves. I continue to raise the amount of boxes on each release until i can get to around 2,000 boxes per release indefinitly. I feel this is a way overlooked product.
Force of Will TCG - Continuing to prove the game is not dead, Force of will prices are holding strong even in this downturn. New releases have performed great and demand is increasing. Another distributor has started carrying FoW products for the 1st time in 4 years. I expect this to increase access to more stores moving forward.
Dragon Ball Super - No plans to carry at this time.
Digimon - No plans to carry at this time.
Final Fantasy TCG - No plans to carry at this time.
YuGiOh! - No plans to carry at this time. Mostly due to sealed product value erosion in many of the boxes in the history of the game.
INFLATION - This is the hot topic of 2021. I believe inflation is actually going to start leveling off as we move into 2022 but will continue to be a problem for the average worker on a fixed income. I think it will remain elevated but will soften some due to future rate increases and stimulus checks stopping and more people returning to normal jobs.
Conclusion - No one can predict the next crash or rocket to the moom. Social media and the markets can scare you and drive you crazy. But over time you realize short term swings and market "noise" truely doesnt matter. Timmy's upset over price drops or pops that have +/-$20 have no impact in a long term plan. Meow.
Time in the market will continue to beat TIMING THE MARKET.
I dont feel this is a 2020 crash situation, but a return to normal.
Remember the goal is 8% a year. The insane 100%+ returns was not normal.
I believe we are all DeToxing and need to adjust expectations.
I believe in people. I believe in Collectibles.
Nothing has changed except for media/politics/corporations making us hate each other.
I believe the next 10 years collectibles will perform just as good as the previous 10 years.
Just like the last 10 years....MOST people will miss out due to fear.
The greatest risk of all is not taking any risk.
7/20/2021 - 10:00 PM
-Rudy
Comments
Hi Rudy, may i ask you to elaborate on what you said about MTG Sealed Modern? Wouldn't price go down if the market thought that there is a lot of it in collector/investor hands? (instead of stay constant?). Also wouldnt so many 2020 releases mean there is more sealed product than usual? Thanks for your time and great insight.
Vlad
2021-07-29 03:12:01 +0000 UTCI wonder if the rise of the Final Fantasy MMO and the recent stumbling and loss of consumer confidence in Blizzard/World of Warcraft will translate to any increased interest in the FF TCG.
Jason Moultrie
2021-07-24 16:45:00 +0000 UTCThere just isn't any room for FaB games at top LGSes, its more of getting caught up on lost time playing Magic in-person, there is no shortage of players showing up. I've been going 1-2x a week and i don't even miss not playing FaB. You also got WPN exclusive events to ensure Magic stays lit as well like Mystery boosters drafts.
2021-07-24 03:02:25 +0000 UTCAmazing deal. Rudy when is metazoooo
2021-07-24 01:02:34 +0000 UTCHOW DO I BUY BOXES??? Login to your Paypal account and go to "SEND MONEY" Select "goods/services" MAKE SURE YOUR PAYPAL SHIPPING ADDRESS IS ACCURATE, MUST BE SENT TO REGISTERED PAYPAL My paypal address is AlphainvestmentsLLC@gmail.com OR My paypal address is AlphainvestmentsEBAY@gmail.com Enter the dollar amount equal to how many boxes you want. 10.00 and 15.00 Patrons+ Up to 6 Standard boxes + Sale items
Michael C
2021-07-23 22:15:52 +0000 UTCHey Rudy I’ve been a patron for years now but never made a purchase. Could you give me the steps to make one? Thank you so much for your time.
2021-07-23 21:52:07 +0000 UTCGot a case of Battle Styles for 600 shipped after tax. Not too bad imo.
Michael T
2021-07-23 16:16:27 +0000 UTCI have seen Kickstarter boxes labeled differently at online retailers and going for significantly more than the regular 1st edition (~$600 vs. ~$150). If you paid $600 per box, I'm guessing you already knew that, unless you were being really reckless and just buying them because they were there.
2021-07-23 04:45:30 +0000 UTCI have 3 boxes of metazoo KIckstarter edition. Anyone know if (1) Kickstarter 1st edition is different than non-Kickstarter 1st edition and (2) any idea if non-alternating Kickstarter 1st edition is preferred or of better value? Got them for an average of ~$600 ish and wondering if they are “more special/rare” than what Rudy will offer…
Aaron Ostergaard
2021-07-23 03:47:56 +0000 UTCthanks for sticking that arcanite skullcap in the arcane rising you sold me rudy :^)
2021-07-23 00:10:23 +0000 UTCRUDY, i just bought 2 1st edition monarch boxes. I am putting my faith in you buddy, don't let me down. If this fails this will be 100% all your fault and I will remind you daily at sunrise.
Ray Q
2021-07-22 16:55:31 +0000 UTCDo we have a timeline on when the meta zoo bundle will be available? Wanna allocate funds to be available and timing would help
2021-07-22 12:52:52 +0000 UTCHasbro Critical Race Theory Whistleblower David Johnson’s Access to Hasbro Has Been SUSPENDED Pending Internal Investigation After Leaking ‘Indoctrination’ Training Given to Employees.
Jakestaz
2021-07-22 02:39:19 +0000 UTChope someone sees this and knows what I'm talking about: what youtube video is it that Rudy mentions MH2 wouldn't be posted on Hasbro's earning report because of how ordering is scheduled?
Rivers
2021-07-22 00:38:53 +0000 UTCbeyond hyped for metazoo launch!
2021-07-21 22:01:59 +0000 UTCMOOM ROCKET!
Varrisk
2021-07-21 21:22:23 +0000 UTCVery excited for the Metazoo release. I got some initially from the website sales, but am stoked for the Rudy specials. That he actually paid for special items just for Patrons shows a lot I think. Very awesome.
2021-07-21 20:27:59 +0000 UTCI am not backing up Bezos/Amazon but, I have purchased plenty of sealed MTG product, (sold and shipped from AMZ), and I have never seen any sign of resealed boxes or packs. The MAIN reason why I don't buy MTG from Amazon, unless I intend to open the box(s), is because they kick/run over/throw/spit/fart on every MTG purchase I make from them. 90% of the MTG product I get from AMZ has shipping damage which drives me cray for holding long-term.
Jakestaz
2021-07-21 13:46:45 +0000 UTCIm already running on the treadmill wearing a garbage bag. Gonna really sweat these toxins out .
Steven
2021-07-21 13:32:56 +0000 UTCBring it !!
2021-07-21 13:31:51 +0000 UTCThe great Detox of summer 2021 is upon us friends
Steven
2021-07-21 13:11:19 +0000 UTCBe interesting to know what you're buying these in at. Right now i have seen Battle Styles at about 90-95 a box and vivid voltage at about $10 more. I would take VV all day over battle styles. Either way, any pokemon product purchased cheap enough is worth it long term.
Ray Q
2021-07-21 12:43:32 +0000 UTCI have started stocking up on CL myself. I just don't see the downside. I wish i was around to stock up on the collectors boxes cheaper. However $100 right now for a premium box with a card like jeweled lotus is too good to pass up.
Ray Q
2021-07-21 12:41:44 +0000 UTCFaB is an awesome game. I think the hate must be (largely) driven by people who have never played. And for Monarch, i initially didn’t like the new mechanics introduced (I like WTR simplicity). But the set has really grown on me. I was going to buy a ton of MH2 from Amazon but now am concerned about the tampered boxes. MH2 is the best long term (modern) hold I have seen. An epic set.
Joshua Campos
2021-07-21 12:34:14 +0000 UTCAwesome information as always. My gameplan is similar. My questions: Why is Rudy only buying cases of 1st Ed. Monarch? Will FAB UL be a good investment? Best FOW box for 1-3 years? Will Chilling Reign or Vivid breach $100 What's the next set to go OOP? (kald, jump, CL) For some reason I think commander legends is the sleeper pick for 1-3 years. Best of luck to all
2021-07-21 12:14:33 +0000 UTCAt 8% annual return. Your investment doubles every 9 years.
2021-07-21 09:46:09 +0000 UTCRudy is a Cat confirmed?
Mark Vitali
2021-07-21 09:13:21 +0000 UTC+1 Pokemon scalper! Currently sitting on 36 boxes of Battle Styles over here. Great set with multiple chase cards of mid-high value$$.
Jakestaz
2021-07-21 06:41:21 +0000 UTCJust tell him what you are sending the money for in the Paypal note box, Kaldheim Set box x 6 or Kaldheim draft x 6....It will show up at your door a week or 2 later, no worries.
Randy
2021-07-21 06:30:53 +0000 UTCWhen making an order, do you need to leave a message at all with the money you send through PayPal?
2021-07-21 05:40:28 +0000 UTCWaiting for rudy to fly me to the moom lol
dustin saunders
2021-07-21 04:38:46 +0000 UTC3k 1st boxes is that right?
Dung Le (Yung)
2021-07-21 04:18:58 +0000 UTCTo The Moom...Safely...We Go
Paul Santomauro
2021-07-21 03:59:40 +0000 UTCPatiently waiting for Rudy's signed tortilla playmats...
DuGiOh
2021-07-21 03:58:13 +0000 UTCYup I have 14 boxes!
Eddie Aguilar
2021-07-21 03:53:42 +0000 UTCHahah. I read that differently heheh Giggity
Eddie Aguilar
2021-07-21 03:51:38 +0000 UTCVery well said.. 👏👏👏👏
Eddie Aguilar
2021-07-21 03:50:13 +0000 UTCDefinitely agree with you Rudy on FaB Monarch 1st edition boxes. The low prices to $240s are now all gone. I don't see a lot of supply anymore on TCG Player. I have a good position now too on Monarch 1st ed. I agree prices will start going back up to $1K in 12 months. Hope everyone else here kept their 1st ed. boxes sealed. Gonna be a nice ride. As for Kaldheim Set boxes, now is your time to stock on those while cheap. Amazon is still selling them for $90/box. As Rudy says "Stay the course everyone!"
Philip Chiu
2021-07-21 03:43:42 +0000 UTCYou’ve kept teasing about incoming LSS announcements. Can’t wait to know what those are!
Pow!
2021-07-21 03:39:09 +0000 UTCCan't wait for metazoo and fab!
Peter Hauge
2021-07-21 03:36:40 +0000 UTCRL MTG FO LYFE!!!!!! Yeah... that's right. Reserved List Chalupas ONLY!!!
Average Josh MTG
2021-07-21 03:16:42 +0000 UTCMETAZOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
outlaw
2021-07-21 02:55:56 +0000 UTCMETAZOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
outlaw
2021-07-21 02:55:53 +0000 UTCAny indication how much the MetaZoo launch will go for?
Nicholas Graham
2021-07-21 02:45:21 +0000 UTCFor TCG's I mostly collect sealed and modern MTG for casual fun (with some early F&B thanks to buying when 1st edition boxes were $90 :) ). I'm confident in TCG market long term unless something catastrophic happens. I'm also in the sports card market and it's hilarious how reactionary that space is. Not just with the value of a certain player on a day to day basis, but the fact that cards aren't going up 20% daily like it did in Summer 2020. I wish there was a Rudy in that space that could tell people to not freak the hell out. But at the same time I'm happy seeing declining prices since I sat out during the boom due to cards and pop reports being way overproduced/overhyped. Good stuff as always Rudy. Hopign I can get into the MetaZoo launch, looks like a cool idea.
2021-07-21 02:40:39 +0000 UTCRudy. I am going to be all over that monarch unlimited sale. Can't wait for you to spoil the playmat and promos!
Joel McAlister
2021-07-21 02:38:51 +0000 UTCI can't like this post because it is at 69 likes! And am I the only one that saw that meow? Told you Rudy is a cat!!!
Neil Eldridge
2021-07-21 02:35:55 +0000 UTCSolid read. Thank you Taco Lord
Craig Mckenzie
2021-07-21 02:33:25 +0000 UTCA shop at the mall had some FoW packs. I bought $70 worth!
Ozzy B.
2021-07-21 02:31:16 +0000 UTCI feel like I should be paying a 1% fee of my entire collectible portfolio for all the diligence …. God knows I pay my financial advisors that much, and they don’t produce shit…
Chad
2021-07-21 02:31:06 +0000 UTCThanks Rudy, I’m really hoping to get MetaZoo stuff.
Ozzy B.
2021-07-21 02:29:48 +0000 UTCMeow! 😽
Jeremy Jones
2021-07-21 02:27:48 +0000 UTCGiggity
2021-07-21 02:26:12 +0000 UTCThanks Rudy!
2021-07-21 02:25:47 +0000 UTCVery curious to see when MH2 collector boxes run out. Amazon has almost 7,000 of them, but seems to sell 50ish per day. That would give us another few months of weirdly cheap retro foil fetches etc... shit will be nuts after that.
Eric Mancini
2021-07-21 02:24:50 +0000 UTCAn insight into the captains' log (lol ... captains' LOG)
Brian
2021-07-21 02:22:16 +0000 UTCso rudy is the one buying 1st ed monarch on tcgplayer at a steady rate of a couple per day for the past month...... 😉
dank_mememan
2021-07-21 02:17:54 +0000 UTCUnless something is done about Flesh and Blood 1st edition pre-order prices, it will never get up there with Magic or Pokémon. The secondary market is one thing, but local game stores gate keeping new sets an entire month before unlimited is released is going to crush the potential of the game. People are getting way too greedy from their quick cardboard bucks and are losing sight of the broader picture.
2021-07-21 02:16:14 +0000 UTCStay the course
Roy Musick
2021-07-21 02:16:12 +0000 UTCReading this gets the taco excited 😝. Great words rudy!!
2021-07-21 02:15:37 +0000 UTCIm just here to sniff cardboard...
115austinharris
2021-07-21 02:15:09 +0000 UTCI feel like Vorinclex and Goldspan Dragon are $100 cards (even non-foil) less than four years from now and will increase the value of sealed just to chase those two.
Troy Graham
2021-07-21 02:15:05 +0000 UTCYou are a cat, sir! 🤪
NooNNiTe
2021-07-21 02:12:25 +0000 UTCI bought some of the Kickstarter MetaZoo stuff in early April. Hoping that it takes off.
Troy Graham
2021-07-21 02:12:21 +0000 UTCThis shit jacks me up Rudy.
Ray Q
2021-07-21 02:11:08 +0000 UTCI’m sitting on Kaldheim! 😂
2021-07-21 02:10:11 +0000 UTCI wish I could post pictures of this awesome Taco Bell trading card game I found at target just for you Rudy.
Lucky Ds
2021-07-21 02:10:04 +0000 UTCRudy - I’m guessing that in about 6 months legend story studios will be paying people to take their leftover monarch 1st edition boxes. As such, I’m buying up cases myself…
Aaron Ostergaard
2021-07-21 02:08:59 +0000 UTC10:00, not 9:59, not 10:01
Troy Graham
2021-07-21 02:07:12 +0000 UTCBeautiful, as always Rudy
Michael Martin
2021-07-21 02:06:47 +0000 UTCMetaZoo is going to be a wild product
Carl
2021-07-21 02:05:26 +0000 UTC
