It's The Attack, Stupid

by Oscar Wood - Special Contributor

Of all the top six clubs going into the summer, Arsenal probably had the most lopsided squad. Their two best outfield players in 2018/19 both lined up at the top of the attack, while their most catastrophic performer was found in the heart of the defence. For that reason there was some surprise, particularly among neutrals, that so much of Arsenal’s summer resources were directed towards players who will help the Gunners going forward. Nicolas Pépé, a wide forward, represented by far Arsenal’s biggest outlay, and Dani Ceballos, a technical and forward thinking midfielder, was a significant financial investment for a single season loan, with no option to buy. 

But far from being a reckless use of resources, Arsenal’s attacking investment this summer could turn out to be what drags them back into the Champions League. It is undoubtedly true that in the last three seasons, Arsenal have primarily been let down by their defensive woes. In 18/19, Arsenal scored the third most goals, while conceding more goals than eight other teams in the league. The 51 goals they conceded in both Wenger’s last season and Emery’s first are Arsenal’s two worst seasons for goals conceded in the Premier League era. But for all the talk of their elite strikers and terrible defence, one can still make the argument Arsenal have more to offer in attack than they have so far shown under Emery, and that the summer additions could be what’s needed to maximise their - now even more - considerable attacking firepower. 

While Arsenal scored the third most goals in the Premier League last season, they weren’t a dominant attacking team. Their shot totals were mediocre and their expected goals for placed them firmly in the second tier of sides behind Manchester City and Liverpool, where they were helped by having the second biggest gap between expected goals and actual goals in the league. Contrary to common perception, this wasn’t because of the finishing ability of Arsenal’s two strikers, who scored 35 goals from 35.58 xG. Arsenal instead managed to eke out 38 goals from 29.22 elsewhere thanks to other goals scorers, plus own goals.* 

Those who watched most of Arsenal’s matches will know that there were countless occasions where Arsenal lacked attacking fluency and were limited in the number of ways they could create chances. Throughout many of the winter months there were matches where Saed Kolasinac was the creative fulcrum as the Gunners relied on overlaps down the left and cutbacks to be the primary sources of chance creation. Whether this was a strategy devised because of the poor seasons of Mesut Özil and Henrik Mkhitaryan, or whether it was a primary cause of those poor seasons is hard to tell, but it limited the dynamism of Arsenal’s attacking play. 

Courtesy Tom (@worville) 

After Arsenal’s shortcomings at centre back, the lack of any true wingers or wide forwards was perhaps the biggest complaint Arsenal fans had last season when it came to the make up of the squad. Mkhitaryan and Alex Iwobi are wide playmakers, and while they can dribble the ball, their primary skill comes in their passing. Arsenal were short of natural wide players who could make runs in behind the defence or beat defenders on the dribble. With that in mind, the arrival of Pépé is a potentially crucial addition to the Arsenal lineup and could transform the way the Gunners attack this season. With 2.8 dribbles per 90, Pépé was twice as prolific at beating a man as Arsenal’s most frequent dribbler last season (Alex Iwobi with 1.4), while also maintaining the goal threat and creativity of a top wide forward. While he does have an element of the Alexis Sanchez’s with a high risk, high reward style that can frustrate fans sometimes, Arsenal have missed that type of individual creative brilliance since the Chilean’s departure, and something resembling a return of it will be more than welcome. 

One of the downsides of Arsenal’s two best attackers both being natural strikers last season was that it forced the managers hand when it came to the balance of the side. Last season Aubameyang was often used on the wing where he’s less comfortable, or Emery opted for awkward formations such as 3-4-1-2 to fit both into their natural position. Hopefully this season, with a wider variety of attacking options, Emery can find the best balance. That might involve leaving one of Lacazette or Aubameyang on the bench. But while last season that would’ve left the Gunners with just one prolific scorer on the pitch, the arrival of Pépé means there could still be two even with just the one striker. While both Lacazette and Aubameyang had fine seasons last term, their individual goal numbers in the league (13 and 18 respectively without penalties) weren’t spectacular or close to their career bests. As far as strike combinations go, they’re among the better ones, but both would probably have their goals records per 90 minutes improve if given more time as the sole centre forward, with more creative players around them. 

There was also sometimes a feeling last season of a disconnect between the strikers and the rest of the team. Often the two strikes would only be joined by one other person who resembled anything like an attacking player, whether that was Iwobi on the wing or Özil behind them. For the Huddersfield home game in December Arsenal played a 3-5-2 with no attacking midfielders or natural wingers; the two strikers were supported purely by fullbacks and deep lying midfielders. Some fans have, not without reason, critiqued Emery for some overly cautious lineups. To defend the coach, with two strikers in a lineup, and with Arsenal’s significant defensive frailties, he probably felt he needed to fill the team with more defensive minded and possession oriented players a lot of the time. The effect, however, was that Arsenal were attacking with the handbrake on, and had two quality strikers on the pitch that weren’t being adequately supported by the supporting cast. 

This is where the addition of Ceballos could really help. For most of last season Arsenal were without a central midfielder who could really string the midfield and attack together. While the likes of Granit Xhaka and Mattéo Guendouzi can progress the ball with their passing, they’re deep lying midfielders who predominantly stay behind the ball. Apart from a few games in March and April when Aaron Ramsey was used in the double pivot rather than as a number 10, Arsenal had no one who could themselves move from deep into the final third, either without the ball, or carrying it forward on the dribble. The former was the speciality of Ramsey, while the latter was the trademark of Santi Cazorla in his time at the club. A technical and athletic midfielder, Ceballos is a natural dribbler and carrier of the ball. The Spaniard found minutes hard to come by in his two seasons at Madrid, but in his last season at Real Betis completed over three dribbles per 90 from midfield. He can play deeper in midfield or as a number ten, and while Emery might like to use him a lot higher up (like he did with the likes of Ramsey, Ever Banega and Ivan Rakitić) hopefully he will be given lots of opportunities in a deeper position as well, because his qualities are something Arsenal have missed in their midfield in the last few seasons. 

A wildcard in all this could be Mesut Özil. At age 30, it would be naive to expect a return to his best days, at least while Emery is still manager. However, it wouldn’t take much for this season to be an improvement on his mediocre showings last year. Özil is a player who at his best makes the job of other attackers easier. Even with a minor improvement in his performances, the added control and creativity in the final third for the team overall could be telling. 

The other thing to consider when evaluating Arsenal’s summer is the fact that a club’s transfer market strategy is somewhat dictated by the market itself. Arsenal would argue that this summer they were unable to find a fairly valued, prime age centre back, who would significantly improve the team, while in Pépé they found a player they knew would do well. One only has to look at the fee for Harry Maguire, a fine defender and better than any of Arsenal’s current options, but an extremely expensive accusation in a position where it can be difficult to judge with certainty how performances will translate to a new team. Take a look at Arsenals recent significant forward purchases over the last few years and you will see a good transfer strategy. Aubameyang, Lacazette, Alexis and Özil were all, to varying degrees, successful buys. Compare with the one big money buy in the backline Arsenal have made (pre-Saliba) in Shkodran Mustafi, and you can see how much more risky it is to commit huge fees on defensive players. It is simply more straightforward to evaluate attackers with certainty. The things they do are easier to capture with both the eye and with the stats, just as it’s easier to separate their individual skill from the team environment and system they play in. 

Arsenal’s squad is clearly at its strongest in the attacking department. While improving the deficiencies at the back is extremely important, Arsenal also need to make sure they maximise the potential of the squad going forward. The Gunners’ main challengers for a place in the top four this season are likely to be Chelsea and Manchester United. Neither come close to matching Arsenal when it comes to the proven goal scoring calibre within each squad. It’s the clear competitive edge Emery’s side have this season. 

After the summer Arsenal have had the pressure will now fall on Unai Emery to deliver the performances and style of football Arsenal fans expect. A bold approach to team selection and more positive tactical approaches to games against weaker sides would go a long way to satisfying the needs of Arsenal fans. While last season had significant frustrations and ended in catastrophic failure in the final month, most fans were understanding of the variety of difficulties Emery faced last term. This time round, expectations will be far less malleable. 

* all expected goals figures from Understat.com