Episode 1 in a short A.I. series!
Added 2023-04-28 16:30:43 +0000 UTCI've been fascinated by artificial intelligence narratives over the past few weeks, and how these ideologies intersect religion. This first episode covers apocalypticism. I'm envisioning two more episodes...one on "animism" and AI (how people ascribe personhood to technology), and the third episode will cover New Religious Movements that worship A.I.
~Andrew
Comments
Nicely done
Dave Bartell
2023-05-03 02:46:41 +0000 UTCHere is a clip from the AI Alignment Newsletter #116 summarizing "Does Economic History Point Toward a Singularity?" by Ben Garfinkel. To me the epistemology and worldview are quite different from 1st century BCE/CE Jewish apocalypticism. --- One important question for the long-term future is whether we can expect accelerating growth in the near future (see e.g. this recent report (AN #105)). For AI alignment in particular, the answer to this question could have a significant impact on AI timelines: if some arguments suggested that it would be very unlikely for us to have accelerating growth soon, we should probably be more skeptical that we will develop transformative AI soon. So far, the case for accelerating growth relies on one main argument that the author calls the Hyperbolic Growth Hypothesis (HGH). This hypothesis posits that the growth rate rises in tandem with the population size (intuitively, a higher population means more ideas for technological progress which means higher growth rates). This document explores the empirical support for this hypothesis. I’ll skip the messy empirical details and jump straight to the conclusion: while the author agrees that growth rates have been increasing in the modern era (roughly, the Industrial Revolution and everything after), he does not see much support for the HGH prior to the modern era. The data seems very noisy and hard to interpret, and even when using this noisy data it seems that models with constant growth rates fit the pre-modern era better than hyperbolic models. Thus, we should be uncertain between the HGH and the hypothesis that the industrial revolution triggered a one-off transition to increasing growth rates that have now stabilized. --- For reference, the author of this summary believed in a 50% chance of human-level or better AI by 2040 and a 10% chance of AI causing human extinction at the time he wrote the summary. I chose this clip because I read it yesterday while the episode was fresh in my mind and it seemed discordant with apocalypticism.
Eric Moyer
2023-05-02 12:50:40 +0000 UTC
