July 15th, 2025: Bellinger, Fried, Volpe, Grisham, Prospects

The Yankees used their first 2025 draft pick, No. 39 overall, on Georgia HS SS Dax Kilby on Sunday. Of course he wasn’t one of the 18 players I wrote up. The Yankees didn't draft any of those guys. So it goes. I’ll have a full draft recap later this week. I’m shooting for Thursday morning, but I can’t make any promises. Here is MLB Pipeline’s write-up on Mr. Kilby. My quick take: Getting a kid with Kilby’s offensive upside, moreso with the hit tool than power, at No. 39 is a really nice get. The positional concerns come with the territory with that late a pick. Good pick. Not a slam dunk winner, not a stinker. Solid player and value. Here are all the Yankees’ picks, here are my midseason grades, and here is today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. Fun start to the weekend and a bad finish. Did you know the Yankees have not won back-to-back series since late May? Not since winning two of three in Colorado and sweeping in Anaheim. The Yankees are 5-8-0 in 13 series since, which is better than I would have guessed, but it is not good enough. The summer swoon has to end coming out of the All-Star break and the wins need to start getting stacked. Here are a few thoughts on the last series of the first half.

Bellinger for (almost) four

Cody Bellinger has been so awesome. The Yankees must’ve given up a ton to get him. Bellinger hit four balls out of the park Friday but finished with “only” three home runs (video) because stupid Kyle Tucker robbed him of what would have been the third of four homers. It was a legit robbery too. Sometimes you can’t tell if the ball was actually going over the wall, but this one was clearly (video):

Bad job by the fans. You gotta get in there and make that play, and make sure it’s a home run. I know the Yankees were up big at the time, but have you seen this bullpen? Aaron Boone era fundamentals are beginning to leak over into the fan base. For real though, it was a great game for Bellinger. It was nice to be on this side of a player mashing against his former team. 

“No, no revenge,” Bellinger joked with Bill Ladson. “Ultimately, it was fun to be out there. I saw a bunch of guys I haven’t seen in a while. I shared a bunch of good memories the past two years.”

This is the first time in Yankees history they’ve had three three-homer games in a season. Aaron Judge did it against the Brewers on March 29th and Jasson Domínguez did it in Sacramento on May 9th. Only three teams have had four three-homer games in a single season: 1950 Dodgers, 1956 Reds, and 2001 Brewers. The Yankees have 66 games remaining to make it happen.

Bellinger hit three homers and nearly a fourth, yet might’ve been only the third biggest contributor to the win. Carlos Rodón was brilliant (8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K) and Judge had what I thought was the best defensive game of his career. He robbed Pete Crow-Armstrong of a homer and made two diving catches, including one to end Rodón’s night with two runners on (video). MVP level defense, that was.

“I would say robbing the homer (was my favorite play) just to keep the run off the board. Carlos is locked in. That’s got to be No. 1,” Judge told Ladson about Friday’s glovework. “… It’s tough, but it’s my job. I got a job to do out there. That’s why they have me playing out there. It doesn’t matter how tough it is, the ball is hit in your direction, you have to make a play.”

Friday was the high point of the weekend. Matt Boyd dominated the Yankees on Saturday. He threw a first pitch strike to 20 of 27 batters, 12 of the 27 saw no more than three pitches, and only two of the 27 saw a three-ball count. When the Yankees tried to work a long at-bat, Boyd got ahead in the count and put them on the defensive. When they tried to jump on something early, it was popped up or put on the ground.

Boyd was sharp. The Yankees got beat Saturday. It happens. Sunday against Shota Imanaga was just a weak effort. The Yankees chased too much and did him a lot of favors, and there was a palpable vibe shift to “let’s get this over with” in the middle innings. The Yankees are 1-7 in the last game before the All-Star break in the last eight years (not including 2020). They are elite at mailing it in the day before vacation.

The annual limp into the All-Star break put the Yankees at 53-43, and two games behind the Blue Jays in the loss column. They’re 10 games over .500 despite two six-game losing streaks within the last month. The Red Sox are starting to play like the team I thought they would be this year, and if Boston is gonna go on the ridiculous run, what can the Yankees do? They only play them so many times (and not again until mid-August).

The Yankees were two games back in the loss column at last year’s All-Star break and they didn’t take over first place for good until September 7th. It is a long season, folks. They’re a series away from being in first place, though they need help at the deadline, and they have to navigate a daunting schedule to get to the deadline (Braves, Blue Jays, Phillies, Rays in that order). An inconsistent first half, for sure, but nothing we haven’t seen before.

“Still a long way to go. We are in a position to do what we need to do,” Aaron Boone told Ladson after Sunday’s loss. “And hopefully, with the physical and mental grind of a long season, there’s that positive reset for some guys to get a breather, to get a blow and come with the hyperfocus of understanding what our mission is.”

Oh great, now Fried is hurt too

Max Fried exited Saturday’s start with a blister on his index finger and blisters aren’t anything new for him. Blisters forced him to miss two starts in 2018 and one each in 2019, 2021, and 2023. Fried said he didn’t feel it until his second-to-last pitch, but he was playing around with his finger in the second inning (video), so maybe it was a hot spot early in the game before going full blister at the end of his outing? I dunno. 

"(Things are) definitely going in the right direction. Feel like it’s getting better,” Fried told Pete Caldera on Sunday. "We’re fortunate to have the break to see how things heal. But I’ll do everything I can to get back as soon as possible.''

The Yankees can push Fried’s next start as far back as next Tuesday. That would be nine days for the blister to heal up. I do wonder if an injured list stint is coming. Tomorrow’s the last day they can backdate it to Sunday. If they do that, Fried could miss just that one start next week thanks to the All-Star break and a scheduled off-day, assuming he misses the minimum 15 days. Maybe that’s the move?

We’ll see how the Yankees handle the roster and all that. What I do know is losing Fried for any length of time would be a disaster. The Yankees are stretched to the limit rotation-wise. Next up would be Carlos Carrasco or Allan Winans, or maybe JT Brubaker, and none of those guys inspire confidence. Please let this blister be a minor thing that goes away during the All-Star break. Please.

Volpe’s bad decisions

Anthony Volpe’s defensive decision-making is becoming a real problem. Knowing when to not throw the ball is an important skill and he doesn’t have it. Why throw to first here? As soon as that ball is out of the infield and you have to lunge and spin, you’re not getting Crow-Armstrong at first. He’s too fast. You have to hold the ball and keep the runner at third. Instead, the unnecessary throw allowed a run to score.

And what’s the deal with playing back on this grounder? You have to charge that. Volpe played it like a catcher was running. Crow-Armstrong’s grounder was a tough play. This one was as routine as it gets. It’s a play a Major League shortstop has to make. Volpe played it too casually and no out was recorded (after the Cubs challenged). Boone, of course, defended the Golden Child after the game, and tossed some blame on Jazz Chisholm Jr.

“As a shortstop you gotta have the freedom to try and get yourself the best hop,” Boone told Gary Phillips. “And then Jazz probably has to turn into a first baseman there, where we're stretching because obviously it's the third out. And then a good job by Swanson of just getting his butt to the bag."

Yes, Chisholm needed to stretch like a first baseman there, but good grief man, that play had no business being that close to start with. Volpe played the ground ball way too casually. That was the major problem there. I can live with physical mistakes. A booted grounder, an off-line throw. That’s baseball. But careless mistakes like these are mental. It’s a player now knowing what to do on a play.

Volpe goes from trying to do too much one inning to playing too timid the next. For a player whose value is tied up so much in his glove, he has to clean this up. Volpe forces too many throws when he needs to hold onto the ball (see: almost every time he goes to third to get the lead runner) and he has to get after it on ground balls. To use a cliche, he lets the ball play him too much. Volpe has to be better, man. 

Why is Grisham playing hurt?

Trent Grisham’s hamstring, which he hurt in Toronto a few weeks back, is still bothering him. The Yankees aren’t hiding it, Boone has said they’re managing the hamstring, and it’s clearly hampering Grisham. He’s stiff when he runs and he isn’t moving at 100%*, and he was unable to get to a few balls that he usually catches. It’s obvious the hamstring is limiting him.

I know Grisham’s been great lately (143 wRC+ in July), but why wouldn’t you put him on the injured list if this is all he can do? It’s not like the Yankees are short on outfielders, and the All-Star break would have reduced the number of games he missed too. Instead, the Yankees are playing Grisham even though he can’t (or was told not to) run at 100%, and could potentially make the injury worse. I don’t get it.

* For what it’s worth, this doesn’t show up in sprint speed. Grisham’s been steadily in the 27.0 ft/s range, which is league average, both before and after the injury. Sprint speed only tracks the player’s fastest one-second burst though, not how quickly he accelerates, etc. 

Yankees claim Garcia

The Yankees claimed journeyman righty Rico Garcia off waivers from the Mets on Monday. He threw 4.2 scoreless innings for the Mets and has a 4.45 ERA (6.06 FIP) with lots of strikeouts (27.4%) and too many walks (14.8%) in 30.1 Triple-A innings this year. The 31-year-old is a four-pitch guy with a curveball, slider, and changeup behind his mid-90s fastball. Pretty standard depth/inventory arm.

Garcia is out of options. Either the Yankees will put him back on waivers and try to send him to Triple-A, or they’ll keep him on the big league roster, which would be a piece of cake. They can easily send down Clayton Beeter or Scott Effross, or I guess put Fried on the injured list. Anyway, there’s a new reliever in the organization, not that I would expect Garcia to help too much with the bullpen’s issues. (The Yankees had an open 40-man roster spot for Garcia after DJ LeMahieu's DFA.)

Miscellany

Gritty start for Will Warren on Sunday. Wobbled early, then settled down and retired 11 of the final 15 batters he faced, and got the Yankees into the sixth inning. Earlier this year, that game might’ve snowballed on Warren, and gotten out of hand quick. He hasn’t missed a start and he’s a better pitcher today than he was on Opening Day … Four homers in the last 29 plate appearances for Giancarlo Stanton. A graph is worth a thousand words:

Stanton was having trouble elevating the ball in his first week or two back. Now he’s getting the ball up in the air, and the home runs are coming … No Cam Schlittler out of the bullpen Sunday, which I thought might happen. Maybe he was available and just not needed? I dunno. I was hoping to get another look at him before the break, but Schlittler will be back on the mound soon enough … And finally, an inordinate number of players I’ve targeted in my Offseason Plans are Cubs or have wound up with the Cubs, and they showed out this weekend. Michael Busch (2023-24) hit a leadoff homer Sunday and is hitting .290/.375/.500 (160 wRC+) this season. Nico Hoerner (2024-25) hit a leadoff triple Saturday. Daniel Palencia (2024-25) saved Saturday’s and Sunday’s games and retired all five batters he faced. See? The Yankees should have listened to me. (Note: The Yankees should never listen to me.)

Injury updates

Luis Gil (lat) made his first rehab start with Double-A Somerset on Sunday: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR (video) on 50 pitches. Boone said it will be a slow build up, likely adding 8-10 pitches each time out rather than the usual 15-20, so figure another 3-4 rehab starts at least. Gil’s 30-day rehab window runs through Tuesday, August 12th. The Yankees could always activate him sooner. August 12th is just the latest it can happen.

Up next

The All-Star Game at Truist Park, assuming the weather cooperates. There’s some rain in the forecast. The 1969 All-Star Game is the only All-Star Game impacted by rain. That one was postponed to Wednesday afternoon, which is probably what they would do this year. The players would hate it, but MLB and FOX gotta get paid. Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes will be the All-Star Game starting pitchers. Before the blister, Fried was in consideration to start, but he called Skubal and asked if he wanted it instead.

"(Fried) asked me if I wanted to start,” Skubal told Evan Woodbery. “(He said), ‘I think you deserve it. I was just wondering if you wanted to start it.’ It was actually a really cool conversation. It’s a very professional thing to do, and I've got a ton of respect for guys that do stuff like that."

The blister made this moot, but cool gesture on Fried’s part. Anyway, the Yankees will begin the second half Friday in Atlanta. Chisholm, Fried, Judge, and Rodón won’t even have to travel. They’ll already be there for the All-Star Game. No word on the pitching matchups for the Braves series. Kinda depends on Fried’s blister. My guess is Schlittler and Marcus Stroman get the first two games out of the break in either order, especially if Rodón pitches in the All-Star Game tonight.

2. Prospect thoughts. The affiliates have been doing some winning of late. Triple-A Scranton took an eight-game winning streak into the All-Star break and they’re 16-3 in their last 19 games, and atop the second half division standings. That puts them in line for a postseason berth (long way to go, of course). Double-A Somerset and High-A Hudson Valley are both 10-2 in their last 12 games. Things aren’t going so hot in the lower levels, but hey, the top three affiliates are playing good ball lately. Here are a few prospects notes and thoughts.

Lombard shines in Futures Game

The NL won its third straight Futures Game on Saturday (NL 4, AL 2) thanks to Dodgers OF Josue De Paula’s three-run homer. De Paula was named Futures Game MVP but SS George Lombard Jr. was the best player on the field. I’m not being a Yankees homer either. Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Lombard was the game’s best player too. These were his at-bats:

• 3rd inning: Six-pitch walk against Marlins LHP Thomas White. Lombard stole second, moved to third on an infield single, then scored on a tapper back to the mound. (video)

• 5th inning: One-out double to left field in an 0-1 count against Giants RHP Trent Harris. He was stranded at second. Get used to it, George (I kid, I kid). (video)

• 7th inning: Robbed of a bloop single by Diamondbacks OF Slade Caldwell, who made a diving catch coming in on the ball in center field. (video)

Lombard started at second base in deference to Tigers SS Kevin McGonigle, then shifted to shortstop in the fourth inning. He played the entire seven-inning game. Lombard made several good plays in the field, both at second and short, and his at-bats were among the best in the game. Lots of guys went up to the plate looking to jump on something early and drive it. Lombard stayed locked in on his approach.

"It was a great experience. A lot of fun," Lombard told John Flanigan about his first Futures Game. "It was cool just being out there with the guys, and being with the guys in the field and getting to face some of them, it was just an all around good day."

Lombard is still trying to figure things out in Somerset (.203/.331/.302 and 97 wRC+), though a just turned 20-year-old running strong plate discipline numbers in Double-A (13.3 BB% and 11.0% swinging strikes) is encouraging. The Futures Game was a nice glimpse at Lombard’s all-around ability. He hit, he ran, he battled at the plate, and he made plays in the field. Good showing for the kid.

Jones mashing in Triple-A

OF Spencer Jones missed about four weeks with an intercostal strain in May and he’s been on a rampage since returning: .340/.417/.695 (203 wRC+) with 14 homers in 37 games. That includes a .362/.426/.776 (202 wRC+) line with seven homers in 14 games since moving up to Triple-A. Here are all seven homers. Jones made every part of the park look small. (He also took a rehabbing Tanner Houck deep.)

Jones is up to 23 homers in 276 plate appearances this year. He hit 17 homers in 544 plate appearances last season. The raw power he’s always had and is his No. 1 tool is now being actualized in games. Yes, Jones is still striking out (32.6 K%) and swinging and missing (18.5% swinging strikes) too much, but at least the power is showing up now. Whiffs without power: Bad. Whiffs with power: Easier to accept.

The power output is a product of getting the ball in the air. Jones ran a way too high 46.9 GB% in 2023. It was 42.3 GB% last year. This year: 31.0 GB%. His power is bonkers (94.0 mph exit velocity, 109.8 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, 55.0% hard-hit rate in Triple-A). Put the ball in the air seven times out of 10 with that hard-hit ability and, well, you get 14 homers in 37 games, as Jones has done since returning from the intercostal.

Eli Ben-Porat (subs. req’d) highlighted Jones this week and praised him for retooling his swing to get the ball airborne, and dropped a Matt Wallner comp on him, offensively. Wallner is not exactly a household name, but he is a career .239/.348/.486 (134 wRC+) hitter with 39 homers in 781 plate appearances for the Twins. Here’s part of the write-up:

It’s actually quite striking how similar their metrics are across the board. Wallner, despite his clear flaw in bat-to-ball, has been a well above-average hitter, clocking in at a 134 wRC+ over nearly 800 plate appearances. Jones’ major league production might look a lot like Wallner’s, which would suggest he has a good shot at being at least an average bat with the plenty of defensive value patrolling center field.

We often hear the scouting adage saying to “bet on the athlete”. Jones accomplished something most athletes can’t, which is a testament to both his athletic aptitude to make the necessary changes, as well as his ability to leverage coaching and training to maximize his tools. Matt Wallner as a center fielder is a really good major league player. Jones will swing and miss a lot, but he’ll mash more than enough home runs that it might not matter.

As for the bat-to-ball ability, Jones has an 18.5% swinging strike rate in Double-A and Triple-A this year. That would be tops among qualified big league hitters by nearly two percentage points (Michael Toglia leads MLB at 16.9%). Statcast has Jones’ Triple-A in-zone contact rate at 72.6%. The only qualified big league hitter with a lower in-zone contact rate than that is Rafael Devers (71.1%). 

So yes, it is a lot of whiffs. Jones is running contact rates that would be terrible in the big leagues in the minors, so his margins are razor thin. That part of his game has not changed and I’m not sure it ever will. At least now that his raw power is turning into game power. Jones putting the ball on the ground as much as he did last year and not getting to 20 homers was worrisome. This year, it’s elevate and celebrate.

What does this mean for Jones’ future and the trade deadline? Well, I wouldn’t make him off-limits at the deadline, there is still crazy high risk here, but I wouldn’t rush to unload him either. For the first time, we can see the path to a productive big leaguer. Jones is getting to his power and he’s always been a good defender and baserunner. It’s only 14 games in Triple-A and 34 games since the injury. The underlying stuff is very promising though. Few grounders, same ridiculous power, etc. Exciting times.

Gomez transitioning to pitcher

C Antonio Gomez, who fell out of my Top 30 Prospects List this year, is transitioning to pitcher. He’s never hit much, including a .140/.225/.168 (25 wRC+) line with 34.0 K% in 35 Double-A games this season. It’s time to try something new. Gomez has always had a very strong arm – I had several folks tell me it was a straight 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale over the years – so pitching is a logical next step.

“I think it could be really special,” Senior Director of Pitching Sam Briend told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d). “ … There aren’t glaring hitches or anything like that. Pretty clean delivery for throwing as hard as he did on flat ground. It was one of those situations where it’s like, ‘Man, this kid looks pretty good throwing as a catcher. Let’s see how that translates to the mound.’”

Here’s video of a recent throwing session. Apparently Gomez, who’s still only 23, has been sitting mid-90s and touching 100 mph during his workouts. Briend told Kuty they “absolutely” plan on getting him into games at later this year. Gomez played his final game as a catcher on June 15th and is currently going through pitching boot camp in Tampa. We’ll see where this goes.

Miscellany

RHP Ben Hess vanished for a month a few weeks ago. He was never placed on the injured list, but it must have been an injury, because he’s slowly built his pitch count up from 42 to 49 to 53 to 59 in four starts back. Hess went 3.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K (video) on Sunday. Weird season for last year’s first rounder. He’s been excellent in some starts, walked the farm in others, and he disappeared for a month … OF Jace Avina, who the Yankees got in the Jake Bauers trade last offseason, was promoted to Double-A last week after hitting .295/.412/.506 (162 wRC+) with eight homers and 24.4 K% in 52 High-A games. He was up over 30 K% earlier in his career. Avina’s running a 26.2 GB% and 53.3% pull rate this year. I’m surprised he only has eight homers given how often he pulls the ball in the air. Interesting player. Just turned 22 last month too. He’ll be Rule 5 Draft eligible after this season, so possibly a deadline trade chip … OF Brendan Jones, last year’s 12th rounder, is already in Double-A, where he’s hitting .241/.323/.420 (116 wRC+) with 18.2 K% and 11.5 BB%. More than respectable for a dude who was playing for Kansas State last spring. Jones got into 15 Grapefruit League games this spring. Even as a late inning dude to cover innings, that’s a big spring workload for a kid who was a late rounder the previous year. The Yankees clearly like the kid and he’s doing well after being moved quickly to Double-A … IF Dylan Jasso is hitting .262/.336/.456 (134 wRC+) with 12 homers and a 9.0% swinging strike rate in 78 Double-A games. As I understand it, the underlying contact quality numbers are strong. Jasso was an undrafted free agent signing in 2023 and he’s gone from interesting sleeper to bona fide prospect this year … RHP Cade Smith, my No. 23 prospect entering 2025, is back after missing the start of the season with a shoulder issue. Only two short rehab starts in rookie ball so far, but he’s pitching again … IF Enmanuel Tejeda, my No. 27 prospect, is back as well. He blew out his knee stumbling through first base last July and got back on the field this month. Tejeda’s played five rehab games in rookie ball, so like Smith, he’s just getting back into the swing of things, but at least he’s playing again.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Two quick trade deadline rumors. First, Joel Sherman (subs. req’d) says teams are asking about J.C. Escarra. Escarra’s been a rock solid backup this season, though as I said in my trade deadline preview, of course you make him available. These 30-year-old late-blooming catchers typically don’t have the longest shelf lives, plus the Yankees are pretty well set behind the plate with Austin Wells and Ben Rice in the big leagues, and Jesus Rodriguez and Rafael Flores not too far away. The Padres badly need a catcher and have a stacked bullpen. I can’t help but wonder if there’s an Escarra for a reliever trade to be made with San Diego. And second, Bob Nightengale hears the Diamondbacks will make their rentals available. That includes Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Josh Naylor, and Eugenio Suárez. They want young pitching in return. I would hate to trade Will Warren for a rental, but if he gets the Yankees access to Gallen/Kelly and Suárez, it's worth considering. The Yankees would lose the trade massively WAR-wise but would also be a better team in 2025. We’ll see. I just wanted to note Arizona is indeed planning to shop their rentals.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)