Quick thoughts as Clarke Schmidt likely needs Tommy John surgery

UPDATE: Joel Sherman says Cam Schlittler will make his MLB debut against the Mariners either Tuesday or Wednesday (Monday's an off-day), so the Yankees are pushing that button. I'll have more on Schlittler in Tuesday's post. He has a 2.82 ERA (2.53 FIP) with 31.9 K% and 8.4 BB% in 76.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

ORIGINAL POST: It is likely Clarke Schmidt will have Tommy John surgery, Aaron Boone revealed Saturday. He will go for a second opinion before it’s official. This would be Schmidt’s second Tommy John. He had it in college in 2017, a few weeks before the Yankees selected him with the No. 16 pick. Obviously, Schmidt’s season is over, and this will likely cost him all of 2026 as well.

Last week Schmidt and the Yankees admitted he was slow to recover between outings, and that his forearm was acting up late in his starts, though the concern did not rise to the level of getting tests. Pitchers are always sore, you would be surprised how awful these guys feel between starts, but the optics here are terrible. Not “let Anthony Rizzo play with a concussion for two months” terrible, but terrible.

In the short-term, it’s a devastating injury for the Yankees. Schmidt was having a great season (3.31 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 2.92 xERA) and appeared to be taking the next step. Now the Yankees, who are already without Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil, are without Schmidt. That’s their three best right-handed starters. Gil could start a rehab assignment next week, but who knows what he’ll look like post-lat strain?

The Yankees will need a starter next week. My guess is it will be Carlos Carrasco, who lines up perfectly with Schmidt’s rotation spot and threw six good innings (72 pitches) last time out with Scranton. Allan Winans can not come back up until after the All-Star break because of the 15-day rule*. Is it Cam Schlittler time? The Yankees can give Carrasco the spot start and reassess during the All-Star break.

* The Yankees used Schmidt's injured list stint to call up Jayvien Sandridge this weekend, before his 15 days in the minors were up. Someone else would have to go on the injured list (please no) for Winans to come up for the spot start this coming week.

Longer term, Schmidt is under team control through 2027, and he will miss most or all of 2026. The best case scenario is a return next September, maybe as a one-inning reliever rather than spending all that time getting stretched out. This is his second Tommy John though. The second surgery carries more risk and typically has a slower rehab. The most likely outcome is Schmidt returns in 2027. This is the healthy rotation depth chart at the moment:

1. LHP Max Fried
2. LHP Carlos Rodón
3. RHP Will Warren
4. RHP Marcus Stroman
5. RHP Carlos Carrasco?
6. RHP Allan Winans?
7. RHP Cam Schlittler?
8. RHP JT Brubaker maybe?

Gil could start a rehab assignment soon and Ryan Yarbrough will be back eventually, though their returns are not imminent. The Yankees needed a starter at the deadline before Schmidt got hurt. Now they absolutely need one. A good one too. Someone who can start Game 3 in the postseason. Cole and Schmidt aren’t coming back and we don’t know when exactly Gil will return, or how effective he’ll be.

This sucks for the Yankees and it sucks for Schmidt, who has gotten better each of the last three years and seemed to be establishing himself as an above-average starter. Now his career is on hold until his age 31 season. Those deep postseason runs and short offseasons are a killer. Three of the Yankees’ four starters last October have missed significant time this season. Pitchers, man.