February 25th, 2025: Volpe, ABS, Jones, Warren, Domínguez, Rice, Hampton, Hurd, Salary Cap

First the Yankees changed their facial hair policy and now they’ll no longer play “New York, New York” at the stadium after a loss. They’ll instead use a rotating selection of songs after losses, per Bryan Hoch. (It was Frank Sinatra’s “That’s Life” on Saturday.) The Yankees began playing “New York, New York” after games in 1980, win or lose. Now it will be used for wins only. I never thought much of the Yankees playing it after losses, but hey, now they have a victory song, and that’s cool. Mostly, I’m offended they plan on losing games this year. For real though, beards and no more “New York, New York” after losses. Who is this team and what have they done with the Yankees? What’s next, an alternate third jersey? A new era of Yankees baseball indeed. Also, Jeff Passan says Devin Williams was a driving force behind the beard thing. Williams spoke to Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman about it, they ran it up the flagpole, Hal Steinbrenner mulled it over, and the change to the policy was made. Good for Williams. Be the change you want to see in the world. Let’s get to today’s post. (RIP Al Trautwig, a New York sports broadcasting legend.)

1. Grapefruit League observations. Great start to the 2025 Grapefruit League season Friday. Jasson Domínguez worked a walk, Cody Bellinger put an 0-2 pitch in play and was rewarded with a ground ball single, and Paul Goldschmidt golfed a two-strike changeup off the left field wall (video). Three batters in, the Yankees had a 2-0 lead and a runner on third with no outs. They then stranded that runner at third because, deep down, the 2023 Yankees are still lurking in there somewhere (I kid, I kid). The Yankees are 1-2-0 with a rainout (that will not be made up) four games into Spring Training. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Volpe’s bat speed

Anthony Volpe had a terrific postseason a year ago and, as I wrote in November, he really was a different hitter in October than he was during the regular season. He was more disciplined and he swung harder. A lot harder. Last regular season Volpe had a 69.5 mph average bat speed and a 4.7% fast swing rate. In the postseason, those numbers were 71.6 mph and 18.3%. (MLB averages: 72 mph and 23%.)

Two games and five plate appearances into Spring Training, we’ve seen the hard-swinging version of Volpe. Here is the number of 75+ mph swings (i.e. a “fast” swing) Volpe has taken each month over the last year:

• April 2024: 5 in 136 PA

• May 2024: 3 in 128 PA

• June 2024: 6 in 126 PA

• July 2024: 9 in 102 PA

• August 2024: 9 in 106 PA

• Sept. 2024: 9 in 91 PA

• Postseason 2024: 15 in 59 PA

• Spring Training 2025: 3 in 5 PA

Volpe also has a 74.7 mph swing and a 73.9 mph swing this spring, so that’s two others just short of the fast swing threshold. It’s only five plate appearances, yet Volpe’s already equaled the number of fast swings he took all of last May, plus he came close on two others. This could be sample size noise, for sure, but the numbers say Volpe swung harder last October than he did during the regular season, and he’s still doing it this spring.

“I want to take care of the strike zone a lot more,” Volpe told Bryan Hoch. “When I do that, I feel like I can impact the ball a lot better and just take my natural, normal swing, which I feel plays. But when I get too big or too outside the strike zone, no one hits those pitches.”

We’re still learning about bat speed, which does not guarantee production but does have some predictive value. You can be successful with below average bat speed, though the guys who do that are Luis Arraez/Steven Kwan types. Elite bat-to-ball guys, which Volpe is not. There was such a big shift in his bat speed last postseason that I have to think it was intentional.

The bat speed is nice, though the real question is will Volpe maintain the plate discipline he showed last October? He went from a league average-ish 29.2% chase rate during the regular season to 19.4% in the postseason. Volpe stopped chasing out of the zone, and when he swung at pitches in the zone, he swung harder. He’s still swinging hard this spring. Does it mean anything? We’ll find out eventually.

ABS challenge system in action (and a note on Jones)

Similar to the pitch clock, I knew I would like the ABS challenge system because I’ve seen it in the minors, and nothing’s changed one weekend into the exhibition season. I don’t full ABS and 100% accuracy. You’ll drive yourself nuts chasing perfection. Give everyone a quick way to correct the most egregious misses. That’s all I need. Now we have it.

We saw an ABS challenge for the first time Friday, when old pal Ben Rortvedt challenged a ball that was pretty clearly a ball. It was upheld on replay (video). “It’s funny that Ben completely botched it. I’m going to wear him out,” Volpe told Greg Joyce after the game. The Yankees used their first ever (unofficial) ABS challenge Saturday and it was a fun little sequence of events:

• Everson Pereira took a 3-2 pitch for a called strike three with two outs.

• Pereira appealed and the call was overturned. The inning was extended.

• Spencer Jones, the next batter, walloped an opposite field two-run homer.

Beautiful. Replay overturned a missed call, it kept the inning alive, and the Yankees capitalized. “I just felt the pitch was away from my strike zone, so I felt it was a good moment to take a chance on it. It’s close to reality. I think it’s good to use,” Pereira told Joey Johnston about the challenge. Here’s the replay and homer. The challenge and replay took maybe 10-12 seconds? I love it. 

“That’s a perfect situation (to challenge), a 3-2 break-even pitch,” Aaron Boone told Johnston. “The difference between a strikeout and getting on base set up a good inning for us. The timing to challenge a close pitch was there and, obviously, he was right and convicted on it. We’ll continue to gain as much experience with it as we can.”

As for Jones, he’s changed his batting stance and setup at the plate again. It’s not one of those tiny little squint your eyes and you can see it adjustments either. Here’s last spring and this spring:

Jones is more hunched over this year, he’s not as open with his stance, and his leg dangles out there a little bit longer than it did last year. He has a one-handed follow-through this year too, though so many guys go back and forth between one-handed and two-handed follow-throughs that I wouldn’t make much of that right now. The important stuff is Jones has closed his stance and isn’t as upright.

“Just trying to get in position to hit it hard,” Jones told Pete Caldera about his adjustments. “… I definitely worked on some stuff in-season (last year). There were some things with my swing that were getting away from me and some drills that I wanted to get back to that would keep me honest with my swing.”

Last offseason the Yankees and Jones worked to lower his hands. Lower them to where they are in the GIF, because he used to hit with his hands way up here at Vanderbilt …

… and it took a long time to get into the hitting position. Jones struggled to stick with it last season. His hands would drift from where the Yankees wanted them to up high above his head, and back and forth he went throughout the season. Baseball’s hard. There’s a lot of muscle memory and Jones had a difficult time not necessarily making the adjustment, but sticking with it.

We’ll see how things go for Jones and his new stance this summer. On Feb. 25th, all I’m doing is noting it happened, not saying it’s the key to cutting down on the strikeouts and reaching his ceiling. Hopefully it happens. If nothing else, Jones is efforting. The home run was cool. Pereira winning the challenge on the 3-2 pitch to extend the inning was also cool. I really like the ABS challenge system. Two thumbs up.

Warren changes it up

Will Warren, my No. 7 prospect, threw two scoreless innings Friday and the changeup was clearly a point of emphasis. He threw 13 changeups among 36 pitches. He averaged 10 changeups and 85 pitches per start last season. Those 13 changeups generated six swings and three whiffs, which is cool, though the results don’t really matter right now. What’s important is the changeup is a priority this spring.

“The changeup has certainly been a factor for him and he continues to improve,” Boone said during his in-game interview with YES (video). “It’s an important pitch for him, especially as a starting pitcher. With that good two-seam action that he creates, and the slider and the sweeper, he’s got that natural advantage against righties, but what’s he going to have for a left-handed hitter? He’s got the cutter, but that changeup and the development of that will be important for him moving forward.”

Warren got whacked pretty good by lefties last year (.293/.379/.510), which is why he’s hammering down on the changeup now. It’s not a new pitch, Warren’s thrown the changeup his entire pro career, but he and the Yankees maybe possibly tweaked it this spring. The pitch had more drop Friday than last year (and his sweeper had more sweep). Here’s the monthly pitch movement graph:

Again, we’re talking about 13 changeups here (and nine sweepers), so let’s not go nuts yet. This early in the Grapefruit League season, Warren’s changeup usage and movement falls into the “thing to monitor” category, not “new and improved.” It makes sense though. Warren needs to improve the changeup to be more effective against lefties, so he threw it a ton in his first spring appearance. This is what spring’s for.

“I feel like Will has so much ability. So many weapons out there, a great arsenal to get hitters out with,” Boone said on YES (video). “It’s just about continuing to refine it, continuing to gain experience, continuing and knowing how to use that arsenal. Knowing how to miss and knowing how to stay away from trouble, but the stuff is all there.”

Miscellany

Rough afternoon for Domínguez in left field Sunday. He lost a ball in the sun and took what looked like a poor route on a ball that fell in for extra bases (video). It’s not even March yet, the Yankees should of course keep running him out there. I wish they’d just put Domínguez in center field, his most familiar position, and make him as comfortable as possible in his first full MLB season. But who am I to doubt the Yankees and their exemplary track record of player development? … Ben Rice started at catcher Saturday and was paired with Carlos Rodón. In five innings he allowed two stolen bases and what was scored a wild pitch even though it looked catchable to me (video). The Yankees are miracle workers with catchers and they’re gonna have to work their magic with Rice. The scouting reports have long said he’s a poor defender behind the plate, and he looked it Saturday … Brent Headrick, you have my attention. The recent waiver claim struck out three in a scoreless inning Friday and his fastball was up 2 mph from the last two years. 

94 mph is nothing to write home about these days, but Headrick’s never been a hard-thrower, and anyone adding 2 mph to any pitch is notable. Headrick missed a bunch of time with a flexor strain last season, so maybe he’s just healthy now? He’d never thrown this hard before though. Hmmm … The Yankees had Dom Smith in the starting lineup in left field Monday. Mother Nature had mercy on him and rained the game out. It’s still February, so who cares that he was going to play the outfield Monday, but if we see Smith in the outfield at any point this summer, the Yankees are in trouble … Tom Verducci wrote a thing about pitchers who’ve shown improved stuff this spring, including Scott Effross. It is true Effross had more movement (and less velocity) on his stuff in his Grapefruit League debut last Friday. It is also true that he threw all of 15 pitches in his inning, and no more than five of any individual pitch type. I acknowledge Effross showed more movement (and less velocity). I also want to see more than one inning before thinking much of it … And finally, wow are the pinstriped hats bad. Not a fan at all. Leave them in Florida.

Injury updates

Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) is in New York to tend to a personal matter. Boone said there is “nothing imminent” in terms of baseball activities. He’s still shut down. Who’s ready for DJ LeMahieu, Opening Day DH? … JT Brubaker exited Friday’s game after taking a comebacker to the lower back (video). It was only – “only” – 74.6 mph off the bat, but still, 74.6 mph hurts. Anyway, Brubaker hurt his side trying to avoid the ball. It’s bad enough that he went for tests Monday. We’ll probably get an update later today … Trent Grisham (hamstring) is about a week away from playing in games.

Up next

The last few days of February. Here’s the full spring broadcast schedule and here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post, and the scheduled starting pitchers

• Tuesday at Twins: TBA (1pm ET, no TV)

• Wednesday vs. Cardinals: TBA (1pm ET on YES, Gotham)

• Thursday at Phillies: TBA (1pm ET on MLB.com live stream)

Marcus Stroman was scheduled to start Tuesday. He will instead stay in Tampa and throw live BP. I have no idea what the rest of the pitching schedule is right now. Here’s what happened the last few days and lines up to happen in the coming days:

• Sunday: Gerrit Cole threw live BP.

• Monday: Luis Gil lined up to throw live BP. I don’t know if he did because it rained in Tampa and everyone did their work indoors, away from the prying eyes of reporters.

• Tuesday: Stroman will throw live BP and Max Fried lines up to throw live BP.

• Wednesday: Clarke Schmidt lines up to throw live BP (assuming his back is okay).

• Thursday: Rodón lines up to start.

• Friday: Cole’s Grapefruit League debut?

Seems like the rest of the big league starters could get into games this coming weekend. If everyone stays on a normal five-day schedule, Fried’s first (unofficial) start as a Yankee will come against the Braves this Sunday. None of this is official though. I’m just counting days. Whatever the pitching schedule is, it won’t be much longer until we see Cole, Gil, and Fried (and Schmidt) in games.

2. Hampton, Hurd have TJS. Chase Hampton, my No. 8 prospect, has indeed undergone Tommy John surgery. He came down with a flexor strain and UCL issue last week, went to New York for tests, and they had to give him a new ligament. Hampton missed the first three months of last season with a flexor strain (and the final few weeks with a groin issue). It flared back up this spring and he had surgery. Bummer.

“For Chase, on some level, there’s a little relief for him,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. “He’s dealt with things last year and then a little bit of an uphill battle, even this year. But he’s really talented and he’s got a chance to be a really good pitcher. This doesn’t stop that. This just puts a pause on it.”

These days you’re looking at 14-18 months with Tommy John rehab. That puts Hampton on track to return sometime next May or June. Maybe a little earlier, maybe later, but the surgery will cut into his 2025. Hampton threw 18.2 innings around the flexor and groin injuries last year. Now he’ll miss the entire 2025 season and part of 2026 too. That’s essentially two lost years for him. Yeesh.

Hampton, 23, will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and I think the injury makes it more likely he will get selected. You could take Hampton, stash him on the 60-day injured list, use his 60-day rehab assignment (Tommy John guys get up to 60 days on rehab, other injuries are 30 days) as what amounts to a free trial, then decide what to do. If he looks good, keep him. If not, let him go.

This is not some wild idea by an idiot blogger. The Rangers did this with Carson Coleman last year. He had Tommy John in Spring Training 2023 and they took him with the intention of monitoring his rehab before committing to a roster spot. Coleman suffered a setback and missed 2024, so it didn’t work and Texas returned him to the Yankees, but that was the idea. All it cost them was a few weeks of a 40-man roster spot last offseason and then a season of the minimum salary, which is nothing, really.

(The Rays are currently doing this with former Mets lefty Nate Lavender. He’s working his way back from the internal brace procedure. Tampa took him in the Rule 5 Draft in December and he’s already on the 60-day injured list. They’ll monitor his rehab, then make a roster decision.)

Hampton is still a fairly highly regarded prospect and elbows are generally fixable. I think he would be a premium Rule 5 Draft target after the season even after missing essentially two years with injuries. Why wouldn’t the Marlins or White Sox take a guy like this? Unless his rehab goes off the rails these next few months, don’t be shocked if Hampton gets a 40-man roster spot after the season even with the injuries.

In other Tommy John news, Thatcher Hurd, my No. 11 prospect and last year’s third round pick, will also have his UCL replaced, reports Geoff Pontes. He’ll have surgery sometime this week. That puts Hurd on roughly the same rehab timeline as Hampton, so figure next May or June. The Yankees took seven pitchers with their first seven picks last summer. The sheer numbers say one of those elbows was bound to pop. With any luck, it will be just the one elbow, and not more.

Spring Training is peak Tommy John surgery season. Historically, 34% of Tommy Johns each year take place in February and March. That’s 34% of the annual Tommy Johns in 17% of the months. Pitchers report to Spring Training and, inevitably, some of them do too much too soon, and blow out. Sucks for Hampton. And Hurd too, but especially Hampton after last year. In an alternate universe, Hampton’s healthy and he made his MLB debut last summer. Pitchers, man.

3. Hal speaks on salary cap. The Yankees are taking the change to the facial hair policy so seriously that Hal Steinbrenner held a press conference about it Friday (!), during which he was asked why payroll came down after going to the World Series. He defended it by saying payroll will be the same as last year after the trade deadline, injury replacements, etc. Payroll should increase after going to the World Series, not hold steady, but I don’t have the energy for that right now. Hal sucks. It is what it is.

During that same press conference, Hal reiterated that he would support a salary cap as part of the next CBA, though he couched it by saying there would also need to be a salary floor. Here’s what Steinbrenner told the Associated Press:

“I have been on the record already saying that I would consider supporting a cap depending on what the cap is and contingent on the fact that there’s also a floor so the clubs that I feel aren’t spending enough money on payroll to improve their team would have to spend more,” Steinbrenner said.

Every owner supports a salary cap. Every single one, even the cartoonishly rich ones like Steve Cohen and the Guggenheim folks (Dodgers). The salary floor thing is not Hal seeing the light either. The biggest source of infighting at the ownership level is revenue sharing, specifically big market teams that pay into revenue sharing believing small market teams that receive revenue sharing are pocketing the money, and not spending it (or enough of it) on their team. 

The salary cap cries have come a little early this CBA cycle. They typically arrive the year before the CBA expires, not two years before it expires like they are now, but they always come. I doubt the league adopts a salary cap because a) the MLBPA is dug in against it, and b) small market owners won’t easily trade a salary cap for a salary floor. A salary cap will prevent a few teams from runaway spending while a salary floor will force a lot more teams to increase spending, and they don’t want that.

The NHL’s salary cap rules are way simpler than the NBA’s and NFL’s, so I’m going to use the NHL as my example. The NHL and its players split revenue 50/50. They take the previous year’s league revenue, cut it in half, and divide it by the 32 teams. The salary cap is then set at 115% of that number and the salary floor is set at 85%. Nice and easy. Here’s what you get for MLB using the NHL’s model:

• 2024 revenue: $12.1 billion

• MLBPA’s share: $6.05 billion (50% of $12.1 billion)

• Share per team: $201.6M ($6.05 billion divided by 30 teams)

• 2025 salary cap: $231.8M (115% of $201.6M)

• 2025 salary floor: $171.4M (85% of $201.6M)

Only five teams are currently over $231.8M in 2025, per Spotrac. A whopping 17 (!) teams are under $171.4M. My quick math says those first five teams are a combined $266.8M over our hypothetical salary cap. The other 17 teams are a combined $1.146 billion under the salary floor. I’m just using the NHL’s salary cap rules as an example here, but you can understand why small market teams would be against a salary floor. In the end, they would have to pay more than the big market teams would have to cut.

The other issue here is defining “baseball-related revenue,” meaning the pie that gets cut for salary cap purposes. That $12.1 billion last season does not include team-owned networks (like YES) or ballpark villages like they have in Atlanta and St. Louis. MLB will argue that, despite being team-owned, those ballpark villages are independent businesses and thus should not count toward baseball-related revenue for salary cap purposes. (The NHL managed to get away with that in their CBA.)

That is silly, of course. Those ballpark villages exist to serve baseball fans who are in the area to watch baseball players play baseball at the nearby baseball stadium, either on television or in person. Of course those team-owned ballpark villages are baseball-related revenue. Determining baseball-related revenue would be the real fight. The battle for a salary cap/floor system is small beans. Agreeing to the pool of money that will be split up is the kinda fight that causes a work stoppage that costs games.

I wrote more about this than I thought I would. Bottom line, it’s no surprise Hal is in favor of a salary cap. Every owner wants one. Wanting to couple it with a salary floor is a big market position. Small market teams want a cap but no floor. The biggest mistake the MLBPA ever made was agreeing to the luxury tax system without getting a floor. They won’t make that mistake with a salary cap. A floor will be a must-have, and the owners themselves can’t even agree to a concept of a floor right now.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB and ESPN both opted out of their $550M a year broadcasting agreement last week, the two sides announced. (That's $18.3M per team and less than 5% of the league's annual revenue.) It will be business as usual this year, meaning ESPN will still have Sunday Night Baseball and all that. That will change in 2026. ESPN says it’s paying too much money, MLB says ESPN doesn’t cover baseball enough. And it doesn’t! Baseball Tonight (and SportsCenter) was must-see television back in the day. Now I don’t put ESPN on for anything other than games. I couldn’t tell you what their non-game programming looks like (I assume a lot of gambling shows). I don’t know what’s next for the league (Amazon? Netflix?), but MLB will figure it out and make a boatload of cash. They always do. It’ll be a bit weird with no baseball on ESPN though. They’ve been together since 1990.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)