December 23rd, 2024: Henderson, Goldschmidt, Chisholm, Fried, OBP

Reminder: I am skipping Friday’s post and taking a long holiday weekend. I don’t expect any breaking news, but if there is, I’ve got it covered. Otherwise I’m gonna take it easy after the deep postseason run, the Offseason Plan, Juan Soto’s free agency, the Winter Meetings, and all the recent moves kept me extra busy these last few weeks. Thanks for understanding. Here is Tuesday’s post on Monday (I’m cheating and starting my mini-vacation a day early). I decided to put a dent in my to-do list and go with the kinda quick hit style post I did at RAB proper and in the early days of the Patreon. Let's get to it.

1. The great Rickey Henderson died this past weekend. He was only 65. So young, geez. I saw Henderson hit a home run in the All-Star Celebrity Softball Game at Marlins Park in 2017. He popped his jersey and the dinger machine went off. It was magical. Rickey is the greatest leadoff hitter ever, the greatest basestealer ever, and the coolest player ever. The gap between Henderson and No. 2 on the all-time steals list is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 46. He hit .294/.407/.448 with 903 steals and way more walks (1,059) than strikeouts (757) in the 1980s, which is a pretty incredible career, except Henderson kept playing until 2003. Can you believe he went to only – “only” – 10 All-Star Games? During his time with the Yankees (1985-89), Rickey hit .288/.395/.455 with 326 steals and +30.8 WAR in only 596 games. Those 326 steals were the franchise record until Derek Jeter passed him in 2011. Jeter broke Rickey’s record in his 2,343rd game. Took him almost four times as many games to get there. I was too young to appreciate Henderson’s heyday in the 1980s but I knew I was watching a Hall of Famer in the 1990s. He’s what, a top 15-20 player all-time? Great player, flamboyant personality, champion of the common man. I will miss seeing the Man of Steal at Old Timers’ Day. They don’t make ballplayers like him anymore, and I’m not only talking about the stolen bases. (Here are all the statements the Yankees released about Rickey.)

2. The day before the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt, I wrote something about Nate Lowe as a trade target, so that’s in the Content Graveyard. Lowe became my preferred first base target once Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) reported he was available. Seeing Josh Naylor get traded for a meh pitching prospect and the 70-something overall draft pick a few hours after the Yankees signed Goldschmidt, and then seeing Lowe then get traded to the Nationals for a (good) reliever straight up one day later, doesn't make me feel any better about the signing. Lowe and Naylor are reminders non-elite first basemen are low cost. They're baseball's running backs. Unless it's someone like peak Freddie Freeman, teams have stopped paying top of the market prices in free agency or trade for guys at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. Goldschmidt’s had a great career, one that warrants at least a little Hall of Fame consideration, and hopefully his elite baseball mind allows him to get at least one more above-average season out of his now 37-year-old body. I can’t lie though, I’m worried we’re in for six months of Aaron Boone saying “he’s had good at-bats, I think he’s close.” I really like everything the Yankees have done since losing Juan Soto except the Goldschmidt signing. Seeing Lowe traded for that a day later stings. May Goldschmidt be the only move I don’t like this winter.

3. I’m looking forward to a full season of Jazz Chisholm Jr. There have been only three 30/30 seasons in Yankees’ history – Alfonso Soriano in 2002 (39 HR and 41 SB) and 2003 (38 HR and 35 SB), and Bobby Bonds in 1975 (32 HR and 30 SB) – and Jazz has the skill set to do it. He went 40-for-50 (80%) stealing bases this past season and hit 24 home runs while playing more games in cavernous loanDepot Park than anywhere else. 30/30 is well within reach. Chisholm’s pulled fly ball rate was in the 45th percentile in 2023. It was in the 46th percentile with the Marlins in 2024. With the Yankees? 68th percentile. Maybe that is nothing more than small sample size noise, but a lefty putting an emphasis on pulling the ball in the air after joining the Yankees would not be unexpected. Chisholm’s top-end exit velocities are good, he’s speedy and very aggressive on the bases, and I love his defensive tools. The quick-twitch reactions, the hands, the arm. He needs to learn the nuances of third base, for sure, but I love the tools. Jazz never had much help with the Marlins. Surround him with quality veterans like Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton, and Chisholm has a chance to really blossom in 2025. I love the skills and think he’ll have a 30/30 season with good health and a full year in Yankee Stadium. He turns only 27 in February too. He’s right smack in his prime. I feel a Jazz breakout coming in 2025.

4. The Yankees have improved their defense at three positions this offseason and it could be as many as five positions depending what they do at second and third bases. Aaron Judge is a better right fielder than Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger is a better center fielder than Judge, and Paul Goldschmidt is a better first baseman than Anthony Rizzo and friends. Or is Bellinger going to play left? I’m not sure how the Yankees plan to align Bellinger and Jasson Domínguez. Bellinger said he’s willing to play anywhere. Yankee Stadium has a difficult left field and Domínguez has primarily played center in his career, so maybe it’s best to put Bellinger in left and let the rookie play his most familiar position? Either way, I think the Yankees have improved their outfield defense at two positions by sliding Judge to right and installing either Bellinger or Domínguez in center. The Yankees ranked 12th in baseball with +31 DRS in 2024, and that was broken down into +21 DRS at catcher, +15 DRS on the infield, and -5 DRS in the outfield. You can live with a -5 DRS outfield to get Soto’s bat. Without Soto, the Yankees will have to do a better job catching the ball next season, and their offseason activity has already made them better defensively at three positions, and there’s still a chance to improve at more positions too. 

5. I was a bit surprised the Yankees signed Max Fried. More accurately, I’m a bit surprised they gave out another huge pitching contract. The Yankees are now locked into Fried, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodón at a combined $90.25M per year for another four years. Add in Aaron Judge and that’s $130.25M tied up in four players through 2028. To be clear, this is not a complaint. The Yankees should always be willing to spend top of the market dollars to get impact players. I’m just surprised they did it on another starting pitcher. After losing Juan Soto, there was a path to a very good offseason that involved zero long-term contracts. They could have signed Nate Eovaldi rather than Fried, or traded for Garrett Crochet rather than sign Fried, and I thought the Yankees might do that and give themselves a chance to reset their luxury tax rate within the next few years. Instead, they went all-in on Fried. The Yankees stagger their contracts so they have money coming off the books each offseason (Brian Cashman confirmed this is part of their planning years ago). Here’s who comes off the books the next few years:

• After 2025: Goldschmidt, Aaron Hicks, Marcus Stroman, maybe Cody Bellinger

• After 2026: DJ LeMahieu, maybe Bellinger

• April 2027: Giancarlo Stanton

• After 2028: Cole and Rodón

I’m not really sure where I’m going with this. I was just surprised the Yankees gave out another big pitching contract, but maybe I shouldn’t have been. The Yankees clearly had money to spend given their Soto offer, and their payroll is never actually clogged up because chunks of money come off the books each offseason by design.

6. The Yankees have an OBP issue, potentially. Yankees other than Aaron Judge and Juan Soto had a .302 OBP this past season and so far Cody Bellinger (.325 OBP in 2024) and Paul Goldschmidt (.302 OBP in 2024) are the team’s only additions on offense. Here are their top projected 2025 OBPs per Steamer:

1. Aaron Judge: .399 OBP
2. Paul Goldschmidt: .327 OBP
3. Jasson Domínguez: .326 OBP
4. DJ LeMahieu: .323 OBP
5. Ben Rice: .319 OBP

Judge has the second highest OBP projection in baseball behind Soto’s .421, then Goldschmidt is all the way down at No. 139. Judge is the greatest offensive force since Barry Bonds, so of course there’s a gap between him and the second best Yankee, but geez, the OBP gap is massive. I don’t think you needed to look at projections to see the Yankees don’t have a roster built to get on base a ton or even just work the count. Soto’s gone and so too is Gleyber Torres, who ranked seventh in pitches per plate appearance in 2024 (ahead of Judge and Soto!). The OBP issue is one reason I pounded the table for LaMonte Wade Jr. (.376 OBP the last two years). The apparently available Nate Lowe would have helped too. Unless they’re going to kick Domínguez to Triple-A and add another outfielder, the only place the Yankees can add a bat is second or third base, and the options are limited there. The Yankees have to finish the job though. They can’t call it an offseason after Goldschmidt, and roll Oswald Peraza or Jorbit Vivas or whoever out there on the infield. In the innings Judge does not bat, the potential to go down 1-2-3 on 10 pitches will be annoyingly high next year without another count-worker/OBP guy. (Anthony Volpe carrying his postseason approach over to 2025 would be a huge help.)

7. The list of available free agent catchers stinks and I wonder if the Yankees view the newly acquired Alex Jackson as their new backup catcher. He rates well defensively and he’s a right-handed bat, which makes him a natural partner for Austin Wells (Ben Rice and JC Escarra are lefties). If the Yankees want Wells to ever be anything more than a platoon bat, they have to let him face lefties, but a righty hitting backup does make sense. I’m not sure how the Yankees truly feel about Rice’s defense, though you can see a path to him backing up Wells and getting spot starts at first base next year. I’m not sure what the plan is behind Wells next year. Could be Jackson, could be Rice, could be someone the Yankees bring in from outside the organization. Regardless, methinks Rice is going to get plenty of opportunities between catcher and first base to help the Yankees and prove himself in 2025.

8. I don’t understand what the Astros are doing. They signed Christian Walker to a three-year deal worth $60M late last week and that’s a perfectly reasonable contract in a vacuum. But they offered Alex Bregman six years and $156M ($26M annually), per Brian McTaggart, and when Bregman didn’t go for it, they pivoted to Walker and Isaac Paredes. Those two will earn a Bregmanian $27M or so in 2025 (Paredes is projected for $6.9M), and they traded Kyle Tucker (!) to make it happen. Walker is a significant upgrade for them at first base and Paredes is a capable enough Bregman replacement at third (both guys will fit well in that ballpark as pull happy righties), but I dunno man. Feels like the Astros traded their best player, let their fourth best player leave as a free agent, and now have new third and fourth best players (behind Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve). Perhaps there’s more coming this offseason (the Astros have Tucker’s projected $15.8M to play with), there kinda has to be given their outfield situation, but for a long time the Astros were the smartest team in the game. Now I don’t get what they’re doing, not that I’m complaining. I guess they’re just gonna keep signing right-handed hitting first basemen in their mid-30s as long as special advisor Jeff Bagwell has owner Jim Crane’s ear. (They owe Walker and José Abreu close to $40M combined in 2025.)

9. The Yankees had me with Caleb Durbin. I thought they were sincere about putting him at second base next year, or at least giving him every opportunity to win the job in Spring Training. They’ve gone for the high contact/low exit velocity/good but not truly elite defense profile a few times in recent years (Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Alex Verdugo, most notably), and Durbin’s cut from that cloth. Think about the series of moves that led the Yankees to Devin Williams. The Yankees signed Nestor Cortes to a minor league contract, coached him up into a No. 3 type starter, and got +10.3 WAR in 3.5 years out of him. They signed Lucas Luetge to a minor league contract and got +2.2 WAR in two years out of him, then traded him for Durbin (and another player). The Yankees developed Durbin, an unheralded 14th round pick, into a 40-man roster player. They then packaged Cortes and Durbin to get Williams, one of the 4-5 best relievers in the game. That is a nifty sequence. For as much as I bitch and moan about the Yankees and their player development, they really knocked it out of the park here. Player development is not only about prospects and minor leaguers. It also matters with journeyman types like Cortes and Luetge. The Yankees signed those two to non-roster deals 25 days apart during the 2020-21 offseason. Who could’ve imagined those signings would lead here?

10. The Yankees are leaning into relievers with whiff-generating changeups and splitters (Fernando Cruz, Mark Leiter Jr., Luke Weaver, Devin Williams), and I worry a little bit about diminishing returns. Keep showing hitters similar pitch mixes and at some point it won't be as effective, you know? Jake Cousins and Ian Hamilton offer sliders (or slambios, in Hamilton’s case), so there is some variety in the bullpen. I would welcome an old school hard-thrower. Someone who can straight up overpower hitters and throw 100 mph by them. The last guy the Yankees had who could do that was … Aroldis Chapman? Peak Chad Green could do that. I was going to mention Robert Garcia as a possible trade target because he's a changeup guy with better underlying numbers than ERA, and because the Yankees need a lefty, then the Nationals went and traded him straight up for Nate Lowe. Alas. Re-signing Tim Hill is the easy move for a lefty reliever. I'm kinda surprise it hasn't happened yet, though I'm not sure Hill is the hottest commodity. A reunion might not happen until February. Anyway, I would like a big fastball added to the bullpen, though the Yankees know what they’re doing with relievers, so who am I to say they need this or that?

11. After signing Paul Goldschmidt, the Yankees have four former MVPs on their roster: Goldschmidt (2022 NL), Giancarlo Stanton (2017 NL), Cody Bellinger (2019 NL), and Aaron Judge (2022 and 2024 AL). The Yankees could, in theory, employ an all-MVP outfield with Bellinger, Judge, and Stanton, though I’m not sure we’ll see Giancarlo in the outfield anytime soon (or ever again). Sarah Langs says four MVPs on one roster ties the record, and you don’t have to go back far for the last team to do it. The Dodgers had four MVPs this past season with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, and Shohei Ohtani. The Yankees also have four former Rookies of the Year: Judge (2017 AL), Bellinger (2017 NL), Williams (2020 NL), and Luis Gil (2024 AL). I don’t know what the record is for the most Rookies of the Year on one team, but I know it’s not four. The 1997 Dodgers had five Rookies of the Year following their run of five straight winners from 1992-96: Eric Karros (1992), Mike Piazza (1993), Raul Mondesi (1994), Hideo Nomo (1995), and Todd Hollandsworth (1996). Nomo always trips me up. In my mind he debuted in, like, 1990 or 1991. Anyway, having a bunch of past awards winners on your roster is a cool thing to talk about more than something that has tangible baseball value, but hey, there is an awful lot of hardware on the roster now. (Don’t forget about Gerrit Cole’s 2023 Cy Young.)

12. After the Devin Williams trade, I was reminded he is a two-time NL Reliever of the Year (2020 and 2023). That’s the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year Award, and there’s the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year Award. My question is, why does the Reliever of the Year have two names? The Cy Young is the Cy Young in both leagues, right? The Rookie of the Year award is, officially, the Jackie Robinson Award in both leagues. The MVP award used to be the Kenesaw Mountain Landis Memorial Baseball Award, again in both leagues (now it’s MVP with no one’s name attached). What makes Reliever of the Year so special that it gets two names? Shouldn’t it just be the Mariano Rivera Reliever of the Year Award in both leagues? No disrespect to Hoffman, but come on. Rivera threw 194.2 more regular season innings than Hoffman and allowed 38 fewer runs, and lol at comparing their postseason resumes. Hoffman was great. A deserving Hall of Famer. But baseball’s tradition is using one award name for both leagues. Reliever of the Year should be the Mariano Rivera Award in the AL and NL. Now excuse me while I go yell at some clouds.

13. And finally, I never bothered to touch on this when it was in the news cycle because it’s not going to happen, but Rob Manfred floated the “Golden At-Bat” rule a few weeks ago. Basically, once a game you can pinch-hit anyone you want. Bases loaded and the No. 9 hitter coming up? The Yankees could use their Golden At-Bat and send Aaron Judge to the plate without removing anyone from the game, changing the batting order, etc. Manfred said there was a “little buzz” about the rule at the owners’ meetings, which means someone in a suit suggested it, and they hadn't yet run it by the baseball people. A few days later Manfred walked it back and said there are no plans to adopt the Golden At-Bat. I think it’s a good thing the commissioner is open to considering new things. Most people hate the automatic runner in extra innings, but otherwise all the recent rule changes have been great. The pitch clock, the limit on pitcher disengagements, the limit on mount visits, etc. Those rule changes probably don’t come to pass under Bud Selig. So yes, I think it’s good Manfred is open to anything and everything that comes across his desk, but the Golden At-Bat ain’t it. It’s too gimmicky and deviates too far from the normal rules of baseball. Also, the rule wouldn’t have the desired impact, which is to get the best players to the plate in the most important situations. That happens all the time already! Judge gets plenty of at-bats in high leverage situations. And, of course, getting the best player to the plate in the most important situations assumes the team didn’t use their Golden At-Bat earlier in the game, like with the bases loaded and the starter on the ropes in the third inning. There would also be roster-building ramifications. Who needs a good pinch-hitter when you can just send your top guy to the plate in a big moment? Juan Soto just got $51M a year. How much more is he worth if you can give him another, I dunno, 100 high leverage plate appearances? It ain’t a small number! Like I said, it’s good Manfred considers new things, but the Golden At-Bat should remain off the table. Pass.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)