December 3rd, 2024: Soto, Snell, Kim, Kahnle, Cardinals

I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving. We went out to eat this year, which was nice because there was no cooking/cleanup, but it also meant fewer leftovers. Small price to pay, I guess. Anyway, the next 10 days or so figure to be the busiest of the offseason. Pitchers are signing, the Winter Meetings are next week, and the rest of the market will move once Juan Soto signs. The Yankees thus far have been quiet other a few minor league signings that I promise I will get to soon (the most notable is utility man Pablo Reyes, you’re not missing much). Here now is today’s post.

1. Latest hot stove news and rumors. The pitching market is moving. Blake Snell went to the Dodgers (more on that in a bit), Frankie Montas went to the Mets (two years, $34M with an opt out), and Matt Boyd went to the Cubs (two years, $29M). That’s after Yusei Kikuchi went to the Angels (three years, $63M). The common thread: Scott Boras clients, all of ‘em. The non-elite Boras guys are signing quickly this offseason. Montas had success with the Brewers after changing his arm slot and the Mets are buying into that. I’ve never really been a Boyd guy, but obviously the Cubs liked what they saw in his 11 starts with the Guardians. Boyd and Montas getting that much could mean Marcus Stroman has trade value at one year and $18M (plus the vesting/player option for 2026). Then again, if this is the price for mediocre pitching, maybe the Yankees should just keep Stroman. I dunno. Here now are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Obsessive Soto Watch

Juan Soto announced his decision last Tuesday. He signed with Celsius (video). The energy drink. Score one for the Mystery Team, I guess. I’ll say this much: Soto clearly enjoys being the belle of the ball. Some players stress out about free agency. Not Soto. He’s having a blast. I guess you can do that when you’ve already made a fortune (his career earnings are north of $80M) and have nine figures coming your way.

Anyway, last week Ron Blum reported Soto and Boras asked for initial offers before Thanksgiving, and since our last post it’s been the usual Boras leak-fest. Every day it was something new. Here’s the play-by-play:

• Tuesday: Jon Heyman said the Red Sox are “increasingly seen as a legitimate contender” for Soto.

• Wednesday: Heyman reported the Yankees upped their initial offer for Soto.

• Thursday: Jeff Passan shot down a bogus report that Soto had agreed to a deal with Boston.

• Friday: The Celsius people teased a “momentum shift to the Bronx,” which caused a stir.

• Saturday: Randy Miller said he’s “hearing the Yankees will probably top out in the $550M range.”

• Sunday: nothing

• Monday: Andy Martino said the “widespread belief” is the Blue Jays will make the highest offer.

Miller’s reporting has been hit or miss over the years and the “probably” means his report is on even less solid ground than usual. And also, if the Yankees are going to top out at $550M, then not only are they not serious about re-signing Soto, they’re not even interested in driving up the price for the Mets or Red Sox or whoever. I included every nugget there, but I’d take the $550M thing with a grain of salt.

I’m a bit surprised we didn’t hear anything Mets-related over the weekend. That Steve Cohen has upped his offer, that the Mets won’t be outbid, whatever. Something that puts pressure on the other teams the way the Red Sox and Yankees reports did over this last week. I figured Cohen would be happy to play the media game. Maybe that’s coming Tuesday. The little brother in Flushing has been oddly quiet though.

Anyway, I am rooting for Celsius to break the Soto signing news, just for the absurdity. I mean, if Soto and Boras had an issue with the energy drink sponsor saying there is a “momentum shift to the Bronx,” Celsius would have taken its post down, right? Right???

Did the Yankees up their offer because they’re being aggressive? Did they up it because they misread the market and their initial offer was too low? Is this all being leaked to leverage teams against each other? That last part is definitely true. As for the Yankees upping their offer, I don’t know if that’s aggressiveness or simply catching up. You can drive yourself nuts following this stuff on a daily basis.

We are fast approaching “any day now” territory. I don’t think we’re there just yet, but we’re getting close. I want to hear a Mystery Team is making a late push before going on high alert. The Winter Meetings are next week in Dallas. Soto and Boras will leave Dallas with a deal in place, I expect, and there is a chance it gets done this week too. I don’t think we’ll be waiting too much longer.

Dodgers sign Snell, and what it means for the Yankees

The Dodgers were going to sign a starter this offseason, and they skipped right over the mid-range free agents and went right to the top of the market. Last week they signed Blake Snell to a five-year, $182M contract with a $52M signing bonus and some deferrals. The deferrals take the present day value down into the $160M to $165M range, so, for luxury tax purposes, it’s a $32M or so charge per year.

Snell fits the “per-inning excellence over total innings” thing the Dodgers build their rotation around, and, on paper, their rotation is very deep:

1. RHP Shohei Ohtani
2. LHP Blake Snell
3. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4. RHP Tyler Glasnow
5. LHP Clayton Kershaw (he says he’s coming back)
6. RHP Tony Gonsolin
7. RHP Dustin May
8. RHP Landon Knack
9. RHP Bobby Miller

Might as well throw Roki Sasaki in there too, right? We all know that’s gonna happen. Anyway, that 1-9 is impressive, though everyone except Knack has a gnarly injury history, and 2024 innings leader Gavin Stone will miss 2025 with shoulder surgery. The Dodgers started Ben Casparius in the World Series – they had a “punt” game built into the postseason rotation! – and two of their three postseason starters (Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty) are free agents. Of course they signed a starter.

Heyman and Mark Feinsand say the Yankees were in on Snell and in fact had a zoom call with him the day he agreed with the Dodgers. I can’t say I’m upset the Yankees missed out on Snell at that price. I am annoyed they didn’t sign him when he was willing to take a one-year deal with options in March (after Gerrit Cole got hurt!), but $30M+ for his age 32-36 seasons? Nah. And I like Snell. When he’s on, he’s dynamite.

Snell joining the Dodgers means a few things for the Yankees. First and foremost, I don’t believe for a second this takes Los Angeles out on Soto. I’m not saying they’re the favorite, just that I don’t think the door is closed. Cot’s puts their 2025 luxury tax payroll at $310M with Snell (and Tommy Edman’s extension). They’re still $41M south of their 2024 payroll, and they need to re-sign or replace Teoscar Hernández. I’m sure they’re still willing to give Soto whatever they were willing to give him before Snell.

If anything, Snell might make the Dodgers more attractive to Soto. The money’s going to be there for Soto no matter what, but the Dodgers just won the World Series, then quickly signed one of the best pitchers on the market. A pitcher Soto watched win a Cy Young from the front row when they were together in San Diego in 2023. Maybe the Yankees should sign someone (Christian Walker?) to show Soto they’re serious about improving? Must the rest of the offseason be on hold until Soto makes his decision?

Second, Snell does likely take the Dodgers out on Buehler and Flaherty, who the Yankees have had interest in recently (Flaherty at the deadline, Buehler now). Flaherty did the one-year prove yourself thing this year. I can’t imagine he wants to/will have to do it again. His next deal could be a dud or the next Zack Wheeler*. I don’t know what to make of that guy. Feels A.J. Burnett-ish in that everyone thinks they can fix him.

* When he was a free agent, Wheeler’s stuff popped in a way Flaherty’s doesn’t. It was pretty clear that, if you could keep Wheeler healthy, he had a chance to be an MFer. Not sure that applies to Flaherty.

Buehler’s much more likely to take a short-term deal than Flaherty and that would be my preference. Avoid multiple years for non-elite free agents when you can, especially for pitchers with lengthy injury histories. You know Buehler can handle the spotlight and won’t scare in big games. Does the stuff still play? It did in October. It is kinda telling that the Dodgers know him better than anyone and are (seemingly) moving on though.

Third, the price for starting pitching is astronomical. Snell got $36.2M a year before deferrals. Boyd and Montas got their contracts. Nick Pivetta rejected the $21.05M qualifying offer. Nick Martinez – Nick Martinez! – got a qualifying offer (he took it). Any decent mid-to-back-end veteran is gonna run you close to $20M a year at this point. Here are the top unsigned starters by 2025 projected WAR:

1. Corbin Burnes: +3.9 WAR
2. Max Fried: +3.2 WAR
3. Nate Eovaldi: +2.8 WAR
4. Jack Flaherty: +2.5 WAR
5. Nick Pivetta: +2.5 WAR

Burnes, Fried, and Pivetta all have the qualifying offer attached too. I really like the idea of signing Eovaldi. He’ll be 35 in February and he has an injury history, which is why he’ll get 2-3 years and not 5-6, and there’s no qualifying offer attached. Eovaldi might be the best bang for the buck there. I signed him as part of the Offseason Plan and I prefer signing him to sinking 5-7 years into Burnes or Fried. 

Then again, the Yankees have (or should have) some urgency to win in 2025 after losing the World Series, and with Cole and Aaron Judge into their 30s. Maybe just give Burnes or Fried that 5-7 year contract and live with the ugly downside later? Payroll’s gonna be bloated in a few years anyway and the farm system is short on impact talent. Maybe just get the best players for 2025 and worry about later later?

The Dodgers got better and they were already the best team in baseball, and I wouldn’t rule them out on Soto. Discount that team at your own peril. There might be less competition for Buehler and/or Flaherty now though, and either way starting pitching will be crazy expensive this winter. That about sums up what Snell going to Los Angeles means for the Yankees.

Kim expected to be posted soon

Kiwoom Heroes infielder Hye-Seong Kim traveled to Los Angeles last week in anticipation of being posted for MLB teams, reports Jee-Ho Lee. The Heroes have not yet officially posted Kim, though he didn’t travel to the other side of the world on a whim. It’ll happen soon. Once it does, Kim will have 30 days to agree to a contract. (KBO players get a 30-day negotiating window, not 45 days like NPB players.)

Kim, 26 in January, is not related to Ha-Seong Kim, though they were double play partners with the Heroes for a few years. The Heroes drew an awful lot of eyeballs with the Kims on the middle infield and Jung-Hoo Lee in center field. Those teams never did win a Korean Series title, but they were a runner-up a few times. The Heroes are about to get their third seven-figure posting fee in four years. Good for them.

This Kim (Hye-Seong) is not nearly as decorated as the other Kim (Ha-Seong). Hye-Seong slashed .326/.383/.485 (118 wRC+) with a career high 11 homers in 2024. Ha-Seong hit .306/.397/.491 (142 wRC+) with 30 homers in his age 24 season, the season leading into his posting. FanGraphs has an updated scouting report on the new Kim:

A big part of Kim's big league projection comes from the assumption that his excellent second base defense will be able to translate to shortstop. Even though he is coming off a career-best power-hitting season in 2024 (his 11 homers and .458 SLG were both career highs), Kim's offensive skills would be a much better fit at shortstop. He's an athletic and rangy defender at the keystone and is great around the bag, but after a one-year trial at short after the departure of Ha-Seong Kim, the Heroes moved him back to second for the last several years. Kim is athletic enough to be a versatile defender and play a low-impact utility role.

Kim is a left-handed hitter with good contact skills (10.9 K% and 6.2% swinging strikes in 2024) and he will definitely steal a base (averaged 34 steals per year since 2021). The guy averaged six homers per 162 games from 2020-23 though, and that little power in KBO raises serious questions about Kim’s ability to handle MLB pitching. He might have the bat knocked out of his hands here.

If you believe the glove will translate to short and/or third base, then you have a nifty utility guy with speed and defense. And the Yankees do need a second baseman, right? Kim is only a year older than Caleb Durbin, he’s a left-handed hitter (Durbin’s a righty), it sounds like Durbin’s his superior defensively, and Durbin has similar questions about his bat at the next level given his poor contact quality in Triple-A.

MLBTR predicted a three-year, $24M contract for Kim and that seems pricey for a glove-first guy with questions about his bat, but a) it only takes one desperate team to get that done, and b) the free agent second base market stinks. After Gleyber Torres there’s Jose Iglesias coming off an outlier BABIP season (.382 BABIP!), Jorge Polanco coming off knee surgery, and Brendan Rodgers. It ain’t great.

Since Kei Igawa, the Yankees have only pursued the tippy top KBO and NPB players. Masahiro Tanaka, Shohei Ohtani, they’ll be in on Roki Sasaki too. They had interest in Lee last offseason, though it wasn’t heavy interest. I think they’ll pass on Kim, who sounds like a role player more than a centerpiece.  

Miscellany

In addition to their Zoom call with Snell before he signed with the Dodgers, the Yankees recently had calls with Burnes, Fried, and “several other top available players,” per Heyman. I take this to mean the Yankees have had preliminary talks with those players to express their interest, figure out what the player is looking for, etc. The Yankees check in on everyone every offseason. This is part of the process … There is mutual interest in a reunion with Tommy Kahnle, per Dan Martin. Kahnle said he thinks he's close to the end of his career after the World Series – "I feel like it’s close," he told Mark Sanchez about retirement – and he would like to retire a Yankee. He's still a steady source of strikeouts (25.7%) and ground balls (58.6%), though the changeup usage got so extreme in October that I'm kinda worried he has zero faith in his fastball. Kahnle rules. He's forever cool with me. I also don't want the Yankees to simply rebuild their 2024 bullpen. If Kahnle comes back, cool. If the Yankees go in another direction, I'll be okay with that too … And finally, Yakyu Cosmopolitan passed along a report that Yakult Swallows slugger Munetaka Murakami has agreed to a 2025 contract, and will be posted next offseason. “This will be my last season in Japan,” he said. Murakami, 25 in February, had a historic 2022 season, slashing .318/.458/.711 with 56 home runs, the record for a Japanese-born player in NPB. He then slipped to .256/.375/.500 with 31 homers in 2023 and .244/.379/.472 with 33 homers in 2024. Murakami had a 29.5 K% this past season in a league with an 18.8 K%. Yikes. He gives off Kyle Schwarber vibes. Big lefty power, will take walks, and that’s it. We’ll see what Murakami does in 2025 and how appealing he is at this time next year. It’s official now though. He’s coming to MLB in 2026.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: St. Louis Cardinals. Thanks to a 6-2 finish to the regular season, the Cardinals this year avoided posting a losing record in back-to-back non-strike seasons for the first time since 1958-59. It’s a remarkable run of success. That said, St. Louis went 71-91 in 2023 and 83-79 in 2024, and the roster has grown stale. They won’t call it a rebuild though. It’s a reset.

“This is a reset, and yes, we’re not going to be focusing on building the best roster we can,” POBO John Mozeliak told John Denton after the season. “But we’re also excited because we have a bunch of young players and we do have some emerging stars at the minor league level. How we augment that over the next few months, time will tell.”

The Cardinals took the rare step of announcing a succession plan in September. Mozeliak, who has run their baseball operations since 2007, will play out the final year of his contract in 2025, then former Red Sox CBO Chaim Bloom will take over. Bloom joined St. Louis as an advisor in January and has overhauled their player development. He’ll continue to do that in 2025, then replace Mozeliak as POBO in 2026. Huh.

Anyway, on paper, the Cardinals are in a good place on the position player side. Masyn Winn quietly had a 4.9 WAR season as a rookie shortstop. Alec Burleson, Brandon Donovan, and Lars Nootbaar have emerged as lineup staples. I wouldn’t give up on Jordan Walker yet. Those guys are all under control at least another three years. That’s a solid foundation. Now St. Louis must improve the rest of the roster, particularly their pitching.

With that in mind, are there any players on the Cardinals roster who make sense for the Yankees as St. Louis embarks on this Don’t Call It A Rebuild? Let’s dive into their notable trade candidates.

3B(/1B?) Nolan Arenado

2024 stats: .272/.325/.394 (102 wRC+), 16 HR, 14.5 K%, 6.9 BB% (635 PA)
Contract status: It’s complicated

Last week the plugged-in Katie Woo (subs. req’d) reported Arenado is willing to pay some first base to facilitate a trade. That’s a pretty good indication Arenado wants out. He has a full no-trade clause and can pick his destination, and the first base thing feels designed to get the attention of potential suitors. Arenado is doing everything he can to make himself desirable to interested teams.

On the field, moving to first base is a bad idea. Arenado has not played a single inning at a position other than third base as a professional. Not in the Majors, not in the minors, not in Spring Training. Also, defense is how he provides most of his value these days. Arenado is not the all-world defender he was earlier in his career, but he’s still above average, which is not something you can say about his bat.

Over the last two seasons Arenado, who turns 34 in April, has slashed .269/.320/.426 (104 wRC+) in over 1,200 plate appearances. He’s always been an aggressive hitter – last year’s strikeout and walk rates were right in line with his career averages – which dragged down his exit velocities. Arenado chases a lot and it leads to a lot of weak balls in play, hurting his average contact quality. That’s been true his entire career.

Max exit velocity and 90th percentile exit velocity are the more relevant numbers. For every player, not just Arenado, but especially for a guy who pollutes his batted ball data with a bunch of weak contact like Arenado. Max and 90th percentile exit velocity tell us how hard he’s hitting the ball when he really gets into a pitch, and, well, Arenado is not doing that at the same level as in the past. His percentiles:

Damage is a nifty stat that attempts to measure a player’s ability to hit for power, and Arenado’s “damage” per batted ball slipped significantly this past season, as did his max and 90th percentile exit velocity. To put it another way, the decline in his slash line comes with a decline in hard hit ability. For a player who will turn 34 soon after Opening Day, that’s scary stuff. The core skills are not what they once were.

Arenado is the kinda former great who inexplicably hits .300/.350/.500 in pinstripes, though it’s one thing to roll the dice on a guy like that on a one-year deal. It’s another to trade for him with three years remaining on his contract. As for that contract, here’s what’s left:

• 2025: $32M (Rockies paying $5M) ($6M deferred)

• 2026: $27M (Rockies paying $5M) ($6M deferred)

• 2027: $15M

The Cardinals are responsible for three years and $64M, or $21.3M per year. The deferrals aren’t significant, but they’re there, and they lower the present day value. That reduces the luxury tax hit to somewhere south of $21.3M. How far south? I do not know and I don’t feel like doing the math. That’s something we can figure out later if the Yankees actually trade for Arenado. 

Point is, it’s a pretty good chunk of change for a player who is declining at the plate and in the field (but is still a solid gloveman). The Cardinals have no real leverage here, Arenado can hold them hostage with the no-trade clause, and they might have to eat money to facilitate a trade. Would they turn him into, say, a $15M a year player? Is Arenado worth it at that salary? What about at $12M a year?

The first base thing is irrelevant to the Yankees. They can put Arenado at third base, slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second, and go get a big bat at first base. Chisholm at third and Arenado at first would be capital-D Dumb. Playing defense is the only thing Arenado still does at an above-average level. The Yankees could easily accommodate Arenado at the hot corner, and he would improve their infield defense overall.

Arenado’s offensive decline is worrisome though. He’s a dead pull righty hitter (24th highest pull rate since 2021) who hasn’t hit an opposite field home run since 2019 (!), and his top end exit velocities are on the decline. That means fewer pulled fly balls will land in the seats at Yankee Stadium, where left field is the big part of the park. Beyond the apparent decline, Arenado’s pull rate/lack of hard contact is a bad match for Yankee Stadium.

There is always a price point where things make sense, and maybe Arenado will squeeze the Cardinals so much with his no-trade clause that that price point becomes a reality, whatever it is. It just feels like, if the Yankees trade for Arenado, we’ll be in for three years of Aaron Boone saying “I liked his at-bats, he’s close.” This feels like a declining veteran in his mid-30s that the Yankees should avoid.

1B/OF Alec Burleson

2024 stats: .269/.314/.420 (106 wRC+), 21 HR, 12.8 K%, 5.9 BB% (696 PA)
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2025, arb-eligible from 2026-28

Burleson is a fascinating player. He’s a lefty who hits righties well (.292/.341/.464 and 125 wRC+ in 2024) and he’s also very aggressive. He has one of the highest swing rates in baseball. But, as Jacob Edelman explained during the season, Burleson is unique in that he makes hard contact when he chases, and he's very good at spoiling pitchers’ pitches. You’d like him to walk more, but the moment he starts being more patient, he stops doing the things that make him successful. It’s a very unique approach. It works for him though.

The Yankees had some interest in Burleson last offseason and I dug it at the time, and I still do now. He’s expected to share right field and DH duty with Walker for the Cardinals next year, though the Yankees could put him at first base, which is his best position (he’s a poor outfielder). Burleson doesn’t get on base enough to put him in the leadoff spot, but as the No. 4 or 5 hitter? He could help the Yankees lengthen their lineup.

Given his defensive/platoon limitations, Burleson is likely the most available of the Cardinals' position player building blocks (Donovan, Nootbaar, Walker, etc.). I’m not sure how to value four years of a platoon bat who fits best at first base and won’t give you a big OBP, but the Yankees should call and ask. Burleson can hit and he can help the Yankees at first base both short and long-term.

UTIL Brendan Donovan

2024 stats: .278/.342/.417 (115 wRC+), 14 HR, 12.4 K%, 7.2 BB% (652 PA)
Contract status: Arb-eligible from 2025-27 (projected $3.6M in 2025) 

I almost didn’t include Donovan here because I don’t think the Cardinals will trade him, or at least not trade him for anything less than a huge package that makes us all gasp. I think they’re more likely to extend him than trade him. Nevertheless, I included Donovan because he’s a good player who fits the Yankees well and would make them better, and because no player is ever truly off-limits in trade talks.

Short version: Donovan, 28 in January, is a high contact lefty bat with short porch pull power (remember this?) who has played all four infield positions and both outfield corners for St. Louis. He plays his best defense at second base, which works great for the Yankees. Donovan plays a position of need (multiple, really) and is the natural leadoff hitter the Yankees haven’t had since DJ LeMahieu was at his peak.

Donovan slashed .278/.342/.417 (115 wRC+) this past season and is a .280/.364/.407 (119 wRC+) hitter in three big league seasons. The downside is he’s not a good baserunner and, at best, he can hold his own against lefties. It’s a .253/.318/.328 (84 wRC+) line against southpaws the last two years and Donovan has zero career big league homers against lefties. He’s toeing the line with being a platoon player.

The left-handedness, the on-base skills, and the ability to play second or third (plus other positions) would fit the Yankees very well. If the Cardinals make Donovan available, then yes, absolutely the Yankees should pursue him. The Cardinals love Donovan him though. I’m not sure he’s available at a price that wouldn’t be a huge overpay. Not sure this one is realistically doable.

RHP Erick Fedde

2024 stats: 3.30 ERA (3.86 FIP), 21.2 K%, 7.2 BB%, 42.1 GB% (177.1 IP)
Contract status: $7.5M in 2025

Not too long ago the Cardinals had a good young starter step into the rotation every season. Jaime García in 2010, Lance Lynn in 2012, Shelby Miller in 2013, Michael Wacha in 2014, Carlos Martinez in 2015, so on and so forth. The well has dried up the last few years though (homegrown starters have made 129 of their 486 starts the last three years, or 27%), leading St. Louis to trade for guys like Fedde.

The Nationals selected Fedde with the No. 18 pick in the 2014 draft, he spun his wheels with Washington from 2017-22, then he went to KBO and reinvented himself in 2023. Fedde won KBO MVP with the NC Dinos and parlayed it into a two-year, $15M contract with the White Sox last offseason. He pitched very well for Chicago, then got flipped to St. Louis in the three-team Tommy Edman trade with the Dodgers.

Now 31, Fedde added a sweeper and changed the shape of his sinker and changeup during his year in Korea, and is now a four-pitch guy (sinker, cutter, sweeper, changeup) who throws all four pitches at least 16% of the time. The underlying numbers (3.86 FIP, 3.88 xERA, 4.42 DRA) aren’t as good as the ERA, but they’re solid. Fedde looks the part of a lower end No. 2 starter who chows down on innings.

The Cardinals got Fedde for a song at the deadline – they gave up 1.5 years of Edman, who had yet to play in 2024 and was on the injured list at the time of the trade, and rookie ball lottery ticket arm – and although they need more pitching, perhaps they’ll look to flip one year of Fedde in what certainly looks like a pricey offseason for pitching, and cash him in as a trade chip to advance their Don’t Call It A Rebuild? Mozeliak said "we’re not going to be focusing on building the best roster we can" and Fedde's a year away from free agency.

2B/3B Nolan Gorman

2024 stats: .203/.271/.400 (87 wRC+), 19 HR, 37.6 K%, 8.5 BB% (402 PA)
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2025, arb-eligible from 2026-28

A year ago Gorman, who is still only 24, looked like a budding All-Star. He clubbed 27 homers in 464 plate appearances and put up a .236/.328/.478 (118 wRC+) line. That came with a 31.9 K% and poor second base defense, the latter of which is understandable given his lack of experience at the position. St. Louis had Gorman learn second on the fly because he was blocked by Arenado at third, his natural position.

Gorman’s approach collapsed in 2024 (it got bad enough that the Cardinals demoted him to Triple-A in August) and his career-long swing-and-miss issues became extreme. He’s always struck out a lot, and with contact rates that poor, you’re walking a razor thin margin. Gorman’s offensive profile is similar to Joey Gallo’s, though his power is a grade below Gallo’s, and his defense and baserunning well below peak Gallo’s.

I answered a mailbag question about Gorman in September and said “I don’t love Gorman because of the contact issues, but there are worse third base gambles in this market.” That’s still true. Good post-hype buy-low candidate. Also not someone I would feel great about giving a lineup spot no questions asked in 2025. It’s a tough fit. Gorman needs a team willing to be patient. The Yankees need production.

RHP Sonny Gray

2024 stats: 3.84 ERA (3.12 FIP), 30.3 K%, 5.8 BB%, 42.3 GB% (166.1 IP)
Contract status: $25M in 2025, $35M in 2026, $30M club option for 2027 ($5M buyout) 

The Cardinals backloaded Sonny’s contract ($10M salary in 2024) and now they’ll try to unload the most expensive years of the deal. That’s a $32.5M luxury tax hit from 2025-26, and hey, maybe that’s not so bad in this pitching market. Blake Snell got $36.4M (before deferrals) for his age 32-36 seasons. Is $32.5M for Gray’s age 35-36 seasons outlandish? We’re talking about a guy with a 3.35 ERA (3.30 FIP) and 27.3 K% in close to 900 innings since the Yankees traded him away.

Gray is a very, very good pitcher. He’s one of the top strikeout artists in the game, he throws a lot of strikes, and he’s a legit six-pitch guy (four-seamer, sinker, cutter, sweeper, curveball, changeup) who tunnels his pitches very well. Everything looks the same out of his hand before veering in whatever direction.

If Gray’s not an ace, he’s damn close to it. There is age-related concern here, and it is big money, but it is only two guaranteed years, and there weren’t any red flags in his 2024 performance. The questions are a) are the Yankees willing to bring Gray back?, and b) is Gray willing to come back? He has a full no-trade clause and decides where he goes. Sonny took some shots at the Yankees, remember.

Brian Cashman also not-so-subtly implied Gray can’t handle New York. “Until someone walks through your door and lives it, it is hard to know. You try to vet every aspect. You plan and work at it and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t,” Cashman told Joel Sherman in Nov. 2018, a few weeks before trading Gray to the Reds. As good as Sonny is, it feels like there’s too much baggage to pursue a reunion.

RHP Ryan Helsley

2024 stats: 2.04 ERA (2.41 FIP), 29.7 K%, 8.6 BB%, 36.8 GB% (66.1 IP)
Contract status: Arb-eligible in 2025 (projected $6.9M)

There are loud cries on the internet for the Yankees to get a Real Closer™ – how many Real Closers™ got hammered in October? (all of them) – and Helsley certainly fits the bill. It’s a no nonsense 100 mph fastball and 90 mph slider thrown at a near 50/50 split, leading to lots of whiffs and not much loud contact. For three years now Helsley has been one of the 10 best relievers in the game. Maybe one of the five best.

Helsley turned 30 in July and he’s a year away from free agency, and if the Cardinals are serious about this reset, trading him should be a top offseason priority. He has an injury history, including extended stints on the injured list with elbow/forearm trouble in 2021 and 2023, and the free agent market lacks an Edwin Díaz/Josh Hader top tier reliever type. Conditions are ripe to maximize the return for Helsley, who has some injury concerns. Holding him until the trade deadline is risky.

Paying big for a reliever, either via trades or free agency, is not something the Yankees do these days, but I would hope they’re open to a Helsley trade. They badly need bullpen help. This is the bullpen right now:

• Closer: RHP Luke Weaver

• Setup: RHP Jake Cousins, RHP Ian Hamilton

• Middle: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Scott Effross, RHP Mark Leiter Jr.

• Long: RHP JT Brubaker, RHP Yoendrys Gómez 

The Yankees could use Helsley and more bullpen help on top of him. The Marlins got four prospects for rental Tanner Scott (and Bryan Hoeing) at the deadline, though none were a top 100 type. Rental Carlos Estévez netted the Angels two prospects who are not blue chippers, but are top five in their system. That seems to be the going rate for one postseason run of a great reliever: 2-4 good but not elite prospects.

The asking price might be too much for the Yankees, who have had success turning scrap heap pickups into quality relievers, and could continue leaning on that. They are the Yankees though. They can go get a big ticket reliever and continue doing the scrap heap thing. It doesn’t have to be one or the other. Helsley is presumably very available and would make any bullpen better. Of course the Yankees should be interested.

LHP John King

2024 stats: 2.85 ERA (3.37 FIP), 15.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 61.7 GB% (60 IP)
Contract status: Arb-eligible from 2025-27 (projected $1.5M in 2025)

Once upon a time the Yankees were supposed to get King, not Joely Rodríguez, in the Gallo trade with the Rangers, but King was on the injured list with a shoulder issue at the time, and the Yankees didn’t like the medicals. They took Rodríguez instead and King eventually went to St. Louis in the Jordan Montgomery trade. After going up/down in 2022 and 2023, King settled into a full-time bullpen spot in 2024.

Look at the stats above and you can see why the Yankees wanted King. He’s a big time ground ball guy and, for better or worse, they build their bullpen around ground balls and weak contact. King’s right up their alley. It’s a low-to-mid 90s sinker with a slider and a changeup, and he didn’t have much of a platoon split this past season. He’s not someone you need to shelter against righties. He can hold his own.

I guess the question is, if the Yankees want a ground ball lefty, wouldn’t they just re-sign Tim Hill? Hill won’t cost much and they wouldn’t have to trade a prospect(s) like they would to get King. I guess the answer is the Yankees might like the 30-year-old King more than Hill, and project him to perform better moving forward. The Cardinals might not value him highly either. Hmmm.

LHP Steven Matz

2024 stats: 5.08 ERA (4.88 FIP), 17.4 K%, 7.9 BB%, 40.1 GB% (44.1 IP)
Contract status: $12M in 2025

I’ve written entirely too much about Matz the last three years. I wrote about him as a possible free agent target and also as a potential bad contract for bad contract candidate for an Aaron Hicks trade. The Long Islander is entering the final year of his four-year contract. Matz threw 197.1 innings in the first three years because of a long list of injuries (shoulder, knee, back, lat). He’s hurt everything along the way.

Now 33, Matz’s value is as a left-on-left matchup guy. He’s been very good against lefties the last few years (.288 wOBA allowed with 58.3 GB% since 2022), and that’s about it. Not good against righties, can’t count on him to take the ball or eat innings, etc. Unless the Cardinals want Marcus Stroman, the Yankees do not appear to match up well for a bad contract for bad contract trade involving Matz, and I don’t think St. Louis is desperate enough to unload the $12M to attach a prospect as a sweetener. I mean heck, they might get a prospect for Matz in this pitching market.

OF Lars Nootbaar

2024 stats: .244/.342/.417 (114 wRC+), 12 HR, 19.5 K%, 12.8 BB% (405 PA)
Contract status: Arb-eligible from 2025-27 (projected $2.5M in 2025)

Nootbaar joins Donovan in the “the Cardinals are more likely to extend him than trade him” group. The just turned 27-year-old is a lefty bat who hits lefties about as well as he hits righties, he’s a very good defender, he grinds out at-bats and takes walks, and he crushes the ball. Nootbaar had a 51.7 GB% in 2024 and it’s 48.5 GB% for his career. Get that down to, say, 40 GB%, and he might be a 30-homer guy.

Nootbaar’s defensive value comes from his first step and his range, not his arm (it’s weak), which makes him a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium’s left field. He’s had some injuries the last two years, mostly back and oblique stuff, so we may have to consider him more of a 110 games a year player rather than a 150 games a year player. That’s okay. The 110 games you get will be really good.

Even if the Yankees re-sign Juan Soto, they could bring in another outfielder, someone who provides a little more certainly moving forward than Jasson Domínguez. Again, I don’t think Nootbaar is available at a price the Yankees will swallow, the Cardinals love the guy, but man do the Yankees need someone exactly like him. Nootbaar helps his team at the plate and in the field, both at an above-average level. 

RHP Andre Pallante

2024 stats: 3.78 ERA (3.91 FIP), 18.5 K%, 9.4 BB%, 61.8 GB% (121.1 IP)
Contract status: Arb-eligible from 2025-28 as Super Two (projected $2.3M in 2025)

Pallante is one of the few things that went right for the Cardinals this past season. They used him out of the bullpen in 2023 and in April 2024, then sent him to Triple-A to get stretched out as a starter. Once he came back up in late May, Pallante pitched to a 3.56 ERA (3.62 FIP) with 61.3 GB% in 20 starts. He averaged 5.6 innings per start. Set the minimum to 100 innings, and that 61.8 GB% is ninth highest in the last 10 years.

The Yankees love ground balls and weak contact and Pallante fits the bill. He doesn’t miss bats, which limits his ceiling a bit, and he walks more than you’d like, but it’s grounders and weak contact.

Mid-90s sinker and four-seamer, upper-80s slider, upper-70s curveball. Pallante makes hitters cover a wide velocity range and he has plenty of movement left and right. He was a starter throughout the minors and he made 10 starts in 2022, so it’s not a new role for him. Similar to Mike King, Pallante needed some time in the bullpen to find himself. Now he’s using that experience to have success in a starting role.

My guess is Pallante is in the same bucket as Donovan and Nootbaar, where the Cardinals consider him part of their core and won’t move him unless they get blown away with an offer. He turned only 26 in September, he has four years of control remaining, and St. Louis needs more pitching. Pallante is someone the Cardinals figure to keep and build around, not trade for prospects they hope will one day be as good as Pallante.

LHP JoJo Romero

2024 stats: 3.36 ERA (4.27 FIP), 21.0 K%, 6.6 BB%, 59.1 GB% (59 IP)
Contract status: Arb-eligible from 2025-26 (projected $1.9M in 2025)

It’s funny, Romero had a 3.68 ERA in 2023 and a 3.36 ERA in 2024, but 2023 Romero was more desirable (and not just because he had an extra year of control). His strikeout rate slipped from 28.6% in 2023 to 21.0% in 2024, and his ground ball rate dipped from 59.1% in 2023 to 48.8% in 2024. Those strikeout and ground ball rate declines were both among the 10 largest in baseball (min. 30 IP in 2023 and 50 IP in 2024).

That isn’t to say the 28-year-old Romero is bad. Just that he wasn’t as dominant in 2024 as he was in 2023 despite having a lower ERA. He still eats up lefties (.225 wOBA allowed in 2024) and is a legit three-pitch lefty (mid-90s fastball, mid-80s slider, mid-80s changeup), and he’s been used as a high leverage guy the last few years now. Romero is familiar with tight late-inning situations.

Trading Romero (and Helsley and King) is a no-brainer if St. Louis is serious about this reset. Relievers are so unpredictable and so high risk, plus Romero (and Helsley) is inching closer to free agency. I need to dig into him more to figure out the strikeout/ground ball stuff, but at a quick glance, yeah, I could see Romero interesting the Yankees. Three-pitch lefties who’ve gotten whiffs and grounders are a good target.

* * *

It seems like there’s always that one-stop shop team in the offseason and at the trade deadline. That one trade partner who has everything you need. The ideal scenario is the Yankees putting everything on the table to get Donovan, Helsley, and Nootbaar. They’d solve a lot of problems in that one deal. The odds of that happening are tiny, of course, because St. Louis loves Donovan and Nootbaar, and also because the Yankees are short on high-end trade chips.

Helsley, King, and Romero certainly seem available and attainable. The position players other than Gorman are probably out of reach. A Gray reunion is unlikely, Matz doesn’t move the needle at all, and Fedde would be a nice innings pickup for a Yankees team that could use more innings given the injury and workload risk in the rotation. I’d love Donovan and/or Nootbaar, and Burleson to a lesser extent. Like the Yankees, the Cardinals will never fully rebuild though, and it seems like those guys are the players they’ll build around.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The reward for losing the World Series: $354,527. The 12 postseason teams split a record $129.1M revenue pool, per the Associated Press, and the Yankees were entitled to 24% as the World Series runner-up. They issued 71 full shares at $354,537 each, plus 16.38 partial shares. For the support staff (traveling analysts, trainers, equipment people, clubhouse personnel, etc.), it’s a life changing sum. The World Series trip paid off a few mortgages for the regular folks who make the Yankees tick. A full share for the Dodgers was $477,441. The Braves, who went two-and-out in the Wild Card Series, had the smallest full share at $9,548 … And finally, last week MLB announced a few changes to the Rays’ schedule to cut back on the number of outdoor games in Tampa in July and August. It’s nothing that affects the Yankees (the Rays swapped home/road series with the Angels and Twins) but I’m mentioning this because I wanted to note the Rays will now play 47 of their first 59 games at home. 47 of their first 59! They’ll then play 69 of their final 103 games on the road. What a crazy schedule. The Yankees will go to Tampa for four games from April 17-20 and two games from Aug. 19-20.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)