Thoughts after Game 3 of the 2024 ALCS

Well that was about the worst possible way to lose Game 3. Couldn’t lose 3-1 like a normal team, huh? Eh, well, I didn’t expect the Yankees to sweep anyway. The Guardians had walk-off wins in the 2017 ALDS and the 2022 ALDS, and we know how those series turned out. Thursday’s loss sucked, but the Yankees still have a 2-1 lead in the ALCS, and they'll get back on the horse for Game 4 on Friday.

Game 4 on Friday: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Gavin Williams (8pm ET on TBS)

1. One strike away. This has been a bad postseason to be a closer. They’ve all blown games. Emmanuel Clase, Edwin Díaz, Carlos Estévez, Devin Williams, and now Luke Weaver. I don’t know if Weaver is gassed – it would be understandable given his postseason workload – or what, but the Guardians have touched him up a bit the last two games. That is unwelcome.

The story of Game 3 was one strike away. Clase was one strike away, Weaver was one strike away, Clay Holmes was one strike away. That last strike never came. The Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton homers were astonishing (video). I skipped the Mets game Thursday because I needed a break and a day to myself at home, and I jumped out of my chair and pumped my fist and let out a yell on Stanton’s homer. I can’t remember the last time the Yankees made me feel that alive.

“Those were big time at-bats,” Aaron Boone said about the back-to-back homers. “Judgie with two strikes, thought he had a good at-bat up to that point, got some good swings off. Then obviously Big G really centered one too. Yeah, great at-bats there to give us a lead.”

Clase got ahead 0-2 on Judge, then gave up the game-tying two-run homer. He got ahead 0-2 on Stanton, athen gave up the go-ahead homer. Clase allowed a .074/.113/.074 line after getting ahead in the count 0-2 during the regular season. Zero extra base hits allowed. Then Judge and Stanton hit back-to-back homers after falling behind 0-2. Incredible. Clase has now allowed more homers (three) and earned runs (six) in the postseason than he did during the regular season (two and five).

Stanton’s homer gave the Yankees a 4-3 lead and a Gleyber Torres sac fly stretched it to 5-3 in the top of the ninth. It was not enough. After turning one of the cleanest 1-6-3 double plays I’ve ever seen, Weaver got ahead in the count 0-2 on Lane Thomas, missed with two fastballs and a changeup to go to 3-2, then he left a fastball in the zone and Thomas banged it off the top of the high wall in left field. Weaver held hitters to a .143/.187/.271 line after 0-2 counts during the regular season. Then Thomas doubled.

Even after the Thomas double, Weaver had a chance to close out the win. He even had a two-run cushion to play with. Instead, Weaver served up the game-tying two-run homer to pinch-hitter Jhonkensy Noel on his 17th pitch of the game. This is, uh, not where Luke wanted to throw this changeup:

I think the last time I knew a ball was gone that quickly off the bat was the Greg Bird home run in the 2017 ALDS. It was just … gone. Noel, the man they call Big Christmas, tied the game, and Weaver blew his first save since unofficially taking over as the closer. The blown save monster final came for him. From an 0-2 count on Thomas – Weaver has faced Thomas in all three games, so the familiarity effect is kicking in – and a 3-0 series lead being one strike away to a tie game. Rough.

“Just gotta execute,” Weaver told Gary Phillips. “Just really felt like I let the team down there, myself down. It’s baseball, and things like that happen. A twist of an arm, and it feels a little devastating. But at the end of the day, you gotta bounce back. We’re still in a good position. We felt like there’s some momentum there, but they earned it. It was a crazy game. The bats were hot, and the ball was flying out of the park. I just gotta flush it."

In the tenth inning, Clay Holmes got ahead in the count 1-2 on David Fry with two outs and a runner at third, so again, one strike away. Clase was one strike away in the eighth (twice), Weaver was one strike away in the ninth, and Holmes was one strike away in the tenth. He missed up with a 1-2 sinker and Fry hit it out of the park for a walk-off homer. Holmes has shied away from his slider lately, though I was still surprised he didn’t try one to get a chase. Sinker up = game over.

According to the folks at OptaSTATS, Game 3 was the first game in history with four separate game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the eighth inning or later. That’s regular season or postseason. First time ever! Holmes threw eight pitches and Weaver threw 20 pitches, and both pitched for the third time in four days. That is not great. Tommy Kahnle threw 26 pitches – all changeups! – in 1.2 innings too. The late-inning guys have to be running on fumes.

The positives: Judge is heating up, Giancarlo is still doing the October G thing, Anthony Volpe reached base three more times (.483 OBP!), and the Yankees are up 2-1 in the series. The negatives: They were one strike away from a 3-0 lead and now they’ll have a tired Circle of Trust™ behind Luis Gil in Game 4. The offense is going to have to put points on the board against Gavin Williams to give Gil and the bullpen breathing room. Matt Boyd shut them right down in Game 3.

“It all stinks,” Weaver told Phillips. “It hurts more knowing how close we were and how big a 3-0 (lead) would be. But that’s life. I’ve been through plenty of failure to know that it’s not always how we want it to be. But I know my teammates got my back, and I know we’re going to come out swinging and we’re going to come out firing on the mound.”

2. A bad game for Trevino. Austin Wells continues to look completely lost – he struck out in both at-bats off the bench and missed with three of his five swings against fastballs (what happened to this guy?) – but I don’t think the Yankees can afford to take him out of the lineup again. Move him out of the cleanup spot, absolutely, but you have to ride it out with him behind the plate. He’s the guy.

Jose Trevino, starting against the lefty Matt Boyd, opened the scoring with an opposite field single through the drawn-in infield in the second inning. That was good! Then he picked off first base to short circuit the rally with Gleyber Torres at the plate and Juan Soto on deck. Trevy, my dude, where are you going?

That’s inexcusable. The Yankees run the bases like they think they’re invisible – Anthony Volpe caught a break when José Ramírez dropped the ball during that ninth inning rundown – and it bites them night after night. Maybe Torres bangs into a double play there and nothing matters. I sure would have liked to have found out!. The pickoff changed the entire complexion of the inning and, really, the game.

Also, the Guardians went 3-for-3 stealing bases in Game 3, all against Trevino. Opponents were 3-for-4 stealing bases in the six postseason games prior to Thursday. All those stolen bases were not on Trevino – Tim Mayza never bothered to look Andrés Giménez back in the sixth inning – but the outcome is irrelevant. The Guardians told us they’re going to run on Trevino. They ranked fifth in stolen bases this season. It’s what they do. Cleveland told us in Game 3 they’re going to challenge Trevino.

I don’t expect much from Trevino offensively, nor do I expect much from Wells at this point. It’s too bad. But I think, given Cleveland’s stolen base prowess, you have to go with Wells behind the plate. Trevino is too much of a liability. On the list of things that might cost the Yankees the ALCS, the catcher is not in the top five, and maybe not the top 10, but it’s on the list. Stick with Wells, please and thank you.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Clarke Schmidt was not going to be allowed to face Josh Naylor a third time – I was surprised he faced José Ramírez a third time – and he pitched well enough. The Kyle Manzardo home run was his only mistake. They pitched him away the entire at-bat and fell behind in the count 3-1 …

… then Schmidt was supposed to go away again in the 3-1 count, but he missed his spot by the full width of the plate …

… and Manzardo hit it out of the park. Mistake pitch. It happens. So much for those “the Yankees should start Schmidt in Game 1 and push Carlos Rodón back as far as possible” takes, huh? … The Axisa curse lives on: Yesterday I mentioned the Yankees had given up four homers in six postseason games, and two were largely inconsequential. Then they gave up three pretty freaking consequential homers in Game 3. The ball was carrying well in Cleveland. Better than it did in Yankee Stadium. What’s that about? … Can anyone on this team play first base? Good grief man. Jon Berti and Anthony Rizzo both misplayed multiple balls, and Berti can least fall back on the inexperience excuse. Is it possible DJ LeMahieu with one good hip is the best defensive first baseman on the team? … Anthony Volpe went 1-for-3 with two walks in Game 4. He has eight walks in seven postseason games. Volpe walked eight times in his final 35 regular season games. He looks like a different player in October … And finally, Ian Hamilton pulled his left calf covering first base in the sixth inning and will have an MRI today. He’s probably coming off the roster. If he does, Mark Leiter Jr. will likely replace him – Aaron Boone said Leiter was the last pitcher they left off the ALCS roster – and Hamilton will be done for the postseason. By rule, a player who comes off the postseason roster due to injury has to miss the next round, so Hamilton could not pitch in the World Series, if the Yankees advance. Would stink to lose a reliever on the fringes of the Circle of Trust™, but what can you do?