Thoughts before Game 3 of the 2024 ALCS

The ALCS shifts to Progressive Field for Games 3 and 4 and, if necessary, 5. The Guardians went 50-30 at home during the regular season. The Yankees went 50-31 on the road. That’s the third best home record against the best road record. Three games in three days (potentially) will change the way the Yankees and Guardians use their bullpens, at least in theory. We’ll see how it actually plays out.

Historically, teams with a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 84% of the time. The updated ZiPS odds are right in line with that:

You need not look back far for the last time a team came back from down 2-0 in the Championship Series. The Diamondbacks did it last year. Lost the first two in Philadelphia, won the next two at home (with help from Craig Kimbrel), lost Game 5 at home, then won Games 6 and 7 back in Philadelphia. That series had a similar “small market David vs. big market Goliath” vibe as this year’s ALCS.

“Guys are excited but we still know there's a lot of work to be done,” Aaron Judge said after Game 2. “We're playing against a good Cleveland team that all year they battled, had some tough games. Went through a tough series with Detroit taking it to Game 5 and came out on the other side. A lot of work to be done. We're excited. The guys in there are focused. They're prepared. They know what needs to be done.”

The Dodgers and Mets (or, rather, Shohei Ohtani) bumped the Yankees out of prime time for Game 3. It’s always a little weird whenever the Yankees play a postseason game in daylight, isn’t it? Prepare yourselves for some shadows talk during Game 3 later today. Here are a few thoughts coming out of the off-day.

Game 3 on Thursday: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Matt Boyd (5pm ET on TBS)

1. The No. 4 hitter. It’s time to take Austin Wells out of the cleanup spot. It’s overdue, really, and doing it now is better than not doing it ever. Wells is hitting .083/.154/.083 (-31 wRC+) with a 38.5 K% through six postseason games, and that’s after hitting .111/.217/.194 (22 wRC+) with a 24.1 K% in September. We’re closing in on two months of just awful, dreadful performance. This goes beyond bad.

“I'm always considering stuff, but I didn't really consider that for today,” Aaron Boone said when asked about possibly dropping Wells in the lineup prior to Game 2. “I feel like, even as Austin has gone through some struggles offensively, he still had in some really big moments over the last month and some key spots that at-bat you really need to have. I still feel like that's in there for him, and hopefully he kind of can get hot here too for a few weeks for us, which would be outstanding.”

The thing is, Wells is not even having competitive at-bats right now. His postseason chase rate is close to 40% (!) and teams are increasingly comfortable attacking him with fastballs …

… and he’s not close on many of them. Wells saw 19 pitches in Game 2 and 12 were fastballs. Five of the seven non-fastballs came during his seventh inning at-bat against Hunter Gaddis, a reliever who threw 62% sliders and changeups in 2024. Wells swung at eight of the 12 fastballs and whiffed five times. He’s running a .228 xwOBA in October. He’s not driving the ball when he does make contact.

And because Gleyber Torres (.433 OBP) and Juan Soto (.462 OBP) have been on base so much through six postseason games (and also Aaron Judge with his .364 OBP), big moments keep finding Wells. He has more plate appearances with runners on base (16) than with the bases empty (10), and he’s 2-for-16 (.125) with seven strikeouts with men on. Love the guy, but Wells is a straight up rally-killer.

Wells took a pitch to the wrist in Texas on Sept. 2nd (video) and it doesn’t coincide perfectly with his slump, but it could be a factor, sure. He sat out the final two games of that series, plus there was an off-day after that. Wells returned that weekend, went 1-for-3 in each of his first two games back, and hit a homer four days later. He’s 6-for-72 (.083) in 21 games since. This is as bad a slump as I can remember.

The easy adjustment is moving Giancarlo Stanton to cleanup and stacking your four best hitters at the top of the lineup. The problem is you then have four left-handed hitters in the 5-9 spots, and you’re inviting the other team to bring in their go-to righty for the Judge/Stanton lane. Is that really a concern though? Is Wells in the cleanup spot that much of a deterrent? It wasn’t for Cade Smith in Game 2.

If the Yankees insist on keeping on a lefty between Judge and Stanton, then Anthony Rizzo is the best candidate, no? Good gravy, how quickly things change. But Wells has stunk, so has Jazz Chisholm Jr., and hard pass on giving Alex Verdugo more at-bats. Rizzo has no power at all these days, but he will give you a pro at-bat and poke singles. That’s more than you can say about Jazz, Verdugo, and Wells.

Four times in six postseason games the Yankees had two on with no outs in the first inning and only once did they score, and that was on Brayan Rocchio’s dropped pop up in Game 2. Judge’s failures in those spots (0-for-4 with three strikeouts and the pop up Rocchio dropped) have gotten the attention and that’s understandable given who he is, but Wells is 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and two ground balls to second base behind him. He’s to blame too.

Simply put, Wells has been a bad hitter for over a month now and he’s currently unfit to bat in a premium lineup spot that sees a lot of traffic. I understand the Yankees are winning and you don’t want to fix what isn’t broken, but it is broken, right? Wells is a black hole in the cleanup spot and the Yankees are playing games that are closer than they need to be because he’s not cashing in on those many chances.

Move Wells down, move Rizzo up, and give yourself a better chance to turn the rallies Torres and Soto are building into runs. Maybe give Jose Trevino a start? Eh, I dunno about that. Trevino went 4-for-41 (.098) after coming off the injured list, remember. Wells is doing good work behind the plate and he at least offers upside with the bat, even if we haven’t seen it in a while. Move him out of the cleanup spot but not out the lineup entirely.

2. Leadoff Gleyber. Five times in six postseason games Gleyber Torres reached base to begin the first inning, and in fact the leadoff hitter has reached in 25 of 51 innings this postseason, or 49%. Sarah Langs says that’s the second highest rate through six postseason games, behind the 1965 Dodgers (51.0%). The Yankees have a team .358 OBP. The Mets are second this postseason with a .328 OBP going into NLCS Game 3 on Wednesday.

Back to Gleyber though. Torres is hitting .292/.433/.500 (170 wRC+) this October – he’s a .283/.377/.464 (134 wRC+) hitter in 37 career postseason games – and he hit .313/.386/.454 (142 wRC+) in 39 games after moving back to the leadoff spot on Aug. 16th. That’s two months of excellence, and it came down the stretch in a division race, and now in the postseason. Gleyber is rising to the occasion.

“I feel like when Boonie gave me the opportunity to lead off, especially when it was a struggle, I was a little surprised to be leadoff,” Torres said before Game 2. “… I really appreciate Boonie because in the most struggle I have, they always keep me in the lineup and help me believe in myself. That's the right thing to do. If your entire organization believes in you, don't trade you at this moment, they keep you, and they show you the love. So you have to figure out a way to get better and help the team.”

Gleyber’s running a 13.3% chase rate and 92.7% in-zone contact rate this postseason, and also a 50.0% hard-hit rate, so it’s locked in plate discipline and hard contact. Look at his swing heat map:

If it’s not in the zone, he’s not going to swing, and when he does swing, he’s hitting the ball hard. This is the best version of Torres. Well, no, the best version of Torres marries this approach with some over-the-fence power (he does have one homer this postseason), but this is what it looks like when Gleyber is going well. He stays in the zone, he puts the bat on the ball, and he hits from line to line.

Chances are Torres is in his final weeks as a Yankee. He’s done everything but get down on his hands and knees and beg for an extension the last few years, but the Yankees have shown little interest, and if they stick to what seems to be a plan to cut payroll in 2025, second base is a spot to save money. We’re not here to discuss the merits of re-signing Gleyber. I’m just stating that his time in pinstripes is likely nearing an end.

Torres definitely did not have the contract year he or the Yankees envisioned. The Yankees wanted him to make the decision to let him leave a hard one, and he made it kinda easy. His strong finish helped them win the AL East though, and now he’s a force atop the lineup in October. Torres is making up for four really bad months to begin 2024 at the most crucial time. He’s a difference-maker right now, when it’s most needed.

“I don't see those guys as teammates. I see those guys as family,” Torres said when asked about these possibly being his final days as a Yankee. “The entire organization, they give me so much, they help me so much. From '16 when they trade me here in the minor leagues, and could be going to be my last year, so I'm really sure to enjoy everything. Go to the ballpark every day and see Yankee Stadium, see the fans support me, see my teammates, see the coaches, just really peaceful and grateful. I just try to do the best I can do to bring a World Series here and hopefully win it together.”

3. Treating Game 3 like Game 7. The next game is always the most important game in the postseason and Game 3 on Thursday is an enormous swing game. Win Game 3 and you’ve got a stranglehold on the ALCS. Lose Game 3 and you’re still in the control of the series, but the Guardians have a bit of an opening, and then Luis Gil starts Game 4 after a long layoff*. The path to a comeback comes into focus.

* Gil has not appeared in a game since Sept. 28th but he has not been sitting around. He threw a long sim game Sunday and will be on normal rest for Game 4.

Given the potential swing – a 3-0 series vs. a 2-1 series lead – the Yankees should treat Game 3 like Game 7, within reason. If that means using Clay Holmes and/or Luke Weaver (and/or Tim Hill) for the third time in four days, and for 4-5 outs each, then you do it, and worry about their Game 4 availability later. Don’t do Cleveland any favors. Make their lives as hard as possible as they try to make this a series.

The Guardians were one of the worst teams against right-handed breaking balls in August and September – 23rd in AVG (.200) and 28th in xwOBA (.239) – so this is Clarke Schmidt’s time to shine. He’s gonna spin them up with curveballs and sweepers, that’s what Schmidt does, and the on paper matchup says he should be successful as long as he executes. Go have your signature moment, Clarke.

“These games can change so quick and the momentum can change so quick,” Schmidt said Wednesday. “We've still got a job to do. We know that we're going on the road in a tough environment. It's business as usual I would think in this locker room. We know these next two games are pivotal games, and we're trying to get the job done as quickly as we possibly can.”

To be clear, I don’t expect the Yankees to rest on their laurels and ease up in Game 3 because they have a 2-0 series lead. This group knows how hard it is to win a series (to win the ALCS, specifically) and they will act accordingly. So I guess I’m just saying this for my own sake. Do what you have to do to nail down that Game 3 win and give yourself four chances to win one game to advance.

“The objective is to take it one day at a time,” Gerrit Cole said after Game 2. “… The first game in Cleveland, that's the most important game on our schedule right now. So we'll be looking to stay on the attack from pitch one in that regard.”

4. Rapid fire thoughts. I wrote a quick thing at CBS about how Luke Weaver became *this* on Tuesday, then he gave up a homer to the second batter he faced that night. Even after all these years, the Axisa jinx is in full effect … Granted, the Yankees have not faced the most powerful lineups, but they’ve allowed only four homers in six postseason games, and two weren't all that consequential:

• ALDS Game 1: MJ Melendez two-run homer vs. Gerrit Cole (Yankees up 2-1 in the fourth)

• ALDS Game 2: Sal Perez solo homer vs. Carlos Rodón (Yankees up 1-0 in the fourth)

• ALCS Game 1: Bryan Rocchio solo homer vs. Rodón (Yankees up 4-0 in the sixth)

• ALCS Game 2: José Ramírez solo homer vs. Weaver (Yankees up 6-2 in the ninth)

Even with a few subpar starts, the pitching staff has a 2.50 ERA (2.93 FIP) with top tier peripherals: 25.1 K%, 6.4 BB%, and 0.67 HR/9. Other than Rodón’s four-run fourth inning meltdown in ALDS Game 2, the Yankees have not allowed more than two runs in an inning this postseason. They’ve limited big innings and big swings, and they’ve done this for the last several postseasons now. Other than the one-and-done AL Wild Card Game in 2021, pitching has never been the issue in October during the Aaron Judge era. The staff has been so good again … I didn’t expect Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s double in Game 2 to be a double (video). From where I was sitting, it looked like a routine fly ball off the bat, then I saw Steven Kwan racing back to the wall, and it went over his head. Jazz has sneaky pop. He’s also had a terrible postseason, going .130/.167/.304 (27 wRC+) in six games, and he also got picked off second base in Game 2 (Aaron Boone said it was a double steal and Chisholm jumped the gun). Jazz’s strikeout (25.0%) and chase (26.1%) rates aren’t horrible and he did show bunt a few times in Game 2, so he’s looking for ways to get going. It feels like everyone in the lineup is either ice cold or molten hot, with no in-between … Nestor Cortes (flexor) threw 10-15 pitches in the bullpen and 10-15 pitches to hitters Wednesday. If he comes out of that okay, he’ll likely face hitters again this weekend. Cortes is trending toward being on the World Series roster, if the Yankees make it … And finally, shoutout to Juan Soto. I haven’t said much about him this postseason but he’s hitting .350/.462/.550 (178 wRC+) with as many walks as strikeouts. This is what the Yankees got him to do and he’s doing it.