August 9th, 2024: Angels Series, Mailbag

I was hard up for CBS content the other day so I turned something I mentioned in Tuesday’s post – Juan Soto is on pace for a top five offensive season by a Yankee in the Expansion Era – into a post there. Here it is if you’re interested. I write for a different audience at CBS, so it’s not the most in-depth piece, but that’s there if you want to read it. Here now is today’s post. I went heavier on mailbag questions than usual because it was a weird week with one rainout and the potential for more, and I didn’t feel like getting too deep into anything without knowing how much the Yankees would actually play. 

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees are 18-26 (.409) since June 15th, the fourth worst record in baseball, yet here they are on Aug. 9th, tied for first place in the AL East. The Orioles keep leaving the door open for the Yankees, and vice versa. There’s no great team in the AL this year – there’s no great team in either league, no one’s on pace to win even 98 games – so the Yankees have as good a chance as anyone to go on a run and win a pennant. One might say it’s right in front of them. At some point you need to beat the teams you’re supposed to beat though. Dropping two of three to the Angels at home is really weak. It’s August. Kick it into gear already. Here are a few quick thoughts on the last few games. 

A rainy series loss

I can’t say I expected the Yankees and Angels to play 27 innings of baseball these last few days, but wouldn’t you know it, they did. Scheduling makeup games between teams on opposite coasts is always a headache. The Yankees and Angels have two common off-days remaining (Aug. 15th and Sept. 23rd) and the travel would have been really bad for one team for either one. No need to worry about that now.

Of course, the Yankees could have used a few more rainouts this week seeing how they got depantsed by the Mike Trout-less (and Shohei Ohtani-less) Angels on back-to-back nights. The Yankees scored five runs in the first four innings of the first game of Wednesday’s doubleheader, then the Angels outscored them 19-6 the rest of the series. Yankees pitchers had six 1-2-3 innings in the three games. This pitching staff refuses to have clean innings. 

Luis Gil could not locate at all Wednesday afternoon – 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 6 K – and I was surprised the Yankees sent him out for the fifth inning and had him throw a season high 107 pitches, almost all of which were high stress. Gil was pitching on eight days’ rest, plus it was raining, and it’s not like he has pristine control to start with. At this point in the season, any rough start will lead to questions about his workload and fatigue, but eh, not the best conditions. I think (hope) that was a one-off.

Because of Tuesday’s rainout, the Yankees were going to need a spot starter at some point this week, so they used the 27th roster spot to start Will Warren on Wednesday night. It was either that, or making both a 26-man and 40-man roster move to bring up a different spot starter this weekend because Warren (and Yoendrys Gómez) would have still been in the 15-day waiting period after being demoted last week. (The 15-day rule doesn’t apply to the 27th man for doubleheaders.) Warren on Wednesday was the easiest way to get that spot start.

Alas, the spot start went horribly. The six-run second inning started innocently enough, with a few ground ball singles, but the Angels loaded the bases with no outs, and Warren kept falling behind hitters (five of the nine batters he faced that inning saw a three-ball count). When he was one strike away from limiting the damage to two runs, Warren left a flat sinker up in the zone to Zach Neto on his 34th pitch of the inning …

… and that was that. Grand slam and the game was over in the second inning, for all intents and purposes. I’m not going to make declarations about any player’s career after two starts, but Warren was bad, and we can acknowledge that without calling him a bust. When he wasn’t in the middle of the plate, he was out of the zone for easy takes. Bad combination, Will. Nestor Cortes can’t keep the ball off the barrel anymore. He and Marcus Stroman are having a race to the top of the “leave him off the postseason roster” list.

The Yankees took a .231/.331/.379 (105 wRC+) line against lefties into Wednesday night’s loss to Tyler Anderson – they have a .259/.336/.459 (125 wRC+) line against righties – and there’s just no fixing that unless some of the guys who haven’t hit lefties all year start hitting lefties. That’s DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe, etc. It’s too late to trade for a righty platoon bat and the right side is Jasson Domínguez’s weaker side. The Yankees will face a lefty starter in three of the next four games, by the way.

Incredibly, the Yankees are 7-16 in their last 23 home games, and are 30-26 at home overall. They’ve won one of their last nine home series. One of their last nine! Even with the series loss to the Angels, the Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall, but they’re allergic to looking good for anything more than a series or two at a time. It’s a step forward, a step back, two steps forward, two steps back, for a good six weeks now. That was an inexcusable series loss. Hitting, pitching, defense, the all-around effort wasn’t good enough.

Injury updates and roster moves

Anthony Volpe exited Thursday's game with what the Yankees called "left foot pain" after fouling a pitch into his foot in the second inning (video). He stayed in and played another five innings after that, then was removed. Aaron Boone said x-rays came back negative and more or less said Volpe is day-to-day. If this turns into something longer, well, that's why you keep Oswald Peraza stashed in Triple-A … Tuesday was a busy day even with the rainout. Cody Poteet (triceps) and Clarke Schmidt (lat) threw live BP to Jon Berti (calf) and Anthony Rizzo (arm) with Jose Trevino (quad) catching. Five birds, one stone. “Today was a very big step. Feeling good physically and the stuff being really good, the command being above everything else,” Schmidt told Greg Joyce. Here’s the latest on those guys:

• Schmidt: He’ll throw another live BP on Saturday, then they’ll decide whether he’s ready to go on a rehab assignment or needs another live BP.

• Trevino: Could start a rehab assignment as soon as Sunday or Tuesday. If he does, I guess he could be back for the next homestand?

• Rizzo: Hitting against the high velocity pitching machine, but he’s “at least a few weeks off,” Boone told Gary Phillips.

• Berti: Still not running at 100% and is probably two weeks away from a rehab assignment.

• Poteet: Not sure what the plan is here. Either another live BP or a rehab game, I assume.

Schmidt will be built up as a starter. If the Yankees decide in a few weeks that he’s best used in the bullpen, then they’ll shift gears and put him in the bullpen. Easier to go from starter to reliever than reliever to starter and all that. Also, Boone indicated Austin Wells has earned more playing time, so they won’t necessarily go back to the 50/50 split behind the plate when Trevino returns … Jasson Domínguez (oblique) is 6-for-34 (.176) with 12 strikeouts in nine games since rejoining Triple-A Scranton, so yeah, still some rust to knock off. El Marciano did play nine innings in center field on back-to-back days last weekend, so he’s advanced that far with his rehab work … The Yankees used Tuesday’s rainout to push Marcus Stroman’s start back from Thursday to Sunday. He’s working on mechanical stuff and pushing him back bought him more time to work on things in the bullpen. Hopefully this unlocks some better command and he’ll give the Yankees at least No. 4-5 starter caliber innings, something he hasn’t done the last several weeks … And finally, Chase Hampton clarified to Mike Ashmore that he was out with a flexor strain, not a partially torn UCL. I guess a flexor strain is better than a partial tear, but really, it’s all part of the same “the UCL is at risk” family. Tomato, Tomatoh.

Up next

The homestand concludes with three games against the defending World Series champion Rangers, then the Yankees head out on the road to play two bad AL Central teams. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Friday vs. Rangers: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Cody Bradford (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Saturday vs. Rangers: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Nate Eovaldi (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Sunday vs. Rangers: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (1:30pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Monday at White Sox: RHP Luis Gil vs. LHP Ky Bush (8pm ET on YES)

The White Sox snapped their AL record-tying 21-game losing streak* Tuesday night and fired manager Pedro Grifol on Thursday (that’ll fix everything). They’re 28-89 and on pace to go 39-123, which would pass the 1962 Expansion Mets (40-120-1) for the most losses in the Modern Era (since 1901). They’re so bad that a pal of mine who isn’t a sports fan asked me “what’s the deal with the White Sox?” the other day.

* Gavin Sheets is on the 2024 White Sox. His father, Larry Sheets, was on the 1988 Orioles team that lost 21 straight games. Baseball is a flat circle.

I don’t like calling any series a “must sweep” because even bad teams win games once in a while, and any team can beat any other team on any given night in this sport. But those White Sox games need to be wins in the bank, especially since the Yankees are tentatively scheduled to miss Garrett Crochet. The AL East race is too close and it’s not like the Yankees are so far ahead in the Wild Card race than they can rest on their laurels. I’m getting ahead of myself though. Chicago’s a next week thing.

As for the Rangers, they are 54-61 this season, and ignoring 2020, they’re on pace to become the first World Series winner to finish with a losing record the next season since the 2014 Red Sox (71-91). Their offense has been shockingly bad. Texas has gone from 5.44 runs per game last year (third in baseball) to only 4.22 runs per game this year (18th in baseball). Look at their regular position players:

Josh Jung returned from a broken wrist two weeks ago, pushing former Yankees prospect Josh Smith into the DH spot, but Jankowski leading the team in DH plate appearances tells you all you need to know. Smith has been great this season and Seager is inevitable. Otherwise the offense is pretty meh, and the rotation is thin with Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, and Max Scherzer all hurt. Former Yankees David Robertson and Kirby Yates will close out wins though. You don’t want to be trailing after seven innings.

(Boone indicated the Yankees aren’t optimistic about playing Friday. If they get rained out again, they’ll play a doubleheader Saturday since both teams have to travel Sunday. Yoendrys Gómez could get the call as the 27th man, though he hasn’t thrown more than 36 pitches in a game in almost a month, so you’re not gonna get much length out of him. Might be Josh Maciejewski then. We’ll see.)

2. Rapid fire thoughts. Luis Rengifo, who we spent time talking about as a trade deadline target, had season-ending wrist surgery earlier this week. He hurt his wrist on July 3rd, came back on July 23rd, went 6-for-32 (.188) in nine games, then had surgery. Dodged a bullet, eh? I said it before the deadline, wrist injuries suffered on a swing scare the crap out of me. They never seem to be minor. Rengifo got hurt and Isaac Paredes has seemingly forgotten how to hit (5-for-33 with the Cubs and 11-for-95 in his last 28 games). I know Jazz Chisholm Jr. hasn’t had the best homestand, but he went deep Thursday and his road trip was great. The super early returns say the Yankees made the right move at third base.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mark asks: I know we have the rest of the regular season and hopefully a full post season before Soto is a free agent, however, is he being so overshadowed by Judge that he would consider that a factor in not signing long term with the Yankees? Does he want to be top dog?

The only person who can answer this is Juan Soto. Soto has said numerous times that he loves playing with Aaron Judge and the Yankees, but it’s possible that is just lip service, and he would prefer to be on a team where he’s the star. Only Juan really knows, right? My guess, and I emphasize this is only a guess, is Soto wants the most money and to play on a team with a chance to win every season (not necessarily in that order). No matter how much I bitch and moan about the team, the Yankees do have a chance to win every season, and they’re capable of paying him the most money. Will Hal Steinbrenner step up if Steve Cohen comes in with a godfather offer? I dunno. I hope we don’t have to find out. I don’t get the sense Soto wants to be the top star on his team, but it’s entirely possible I’m wrong, and it really is a priority for him.

Steve asks: Aaron Judge got intentionally walked four times in the Blue Jays series and three times in one game. Soto was quoted about being annoyed that he couldn’t get an opportunity to bat. That got me thinking… Do you think the intentional walk is the next “modernized” rule change baseball should take care of? Or does it just not happen enough. I always enjoyed that baseball was both an individual and a team sport at the same time. But it’s also one of the very few sports where if you needed your best offensive player to get the ball, they can’t. However, you could substitute your best pitcher to face their best batter. So should baseball get rid of the intentional walk? Or find a way to make it a little harsher if they do continue to allow it. For example: every time you IBB s batter in the same game they get an additional bag. So the second time in the same game the batter gets to second base. Something like that? I’m rambling but you get the point. Any ideas? Or is this hogwash.

Intentional walks are at their lowest point in history. There are 0.10 IBB per game this year, and it was 0.14 IBB/G in 2021, the last year pitchers hit. You have to go back to 2017 for the last 0.20 IBB/G year. The last 0.30 IBB/G year was 2002. Teams came to the conclusion the free base isn’t worth it most of the time, and IBBs have been on the decline since. (The 2019 Astros famously did not issue a single IBB during the regular season. Their only IBB that year: Juan Soto in Game 2 of the World Series.)

The biggest issue with a rule limiting or penalizing IBBs is enforcing it. The pitching team can simply “pitch” to the batter and give him an unintentional intentional walk to skirt around it. Asking the umpire to use his discretion and declare certain walks “intentional” is asking for a headache. What MLB could do is punish all four-pitch walks. Let’s say the penalty is an extra base, so the hitter goes to second instead of first. Make that the penalty for every four-pitch walk, so it’s black and white. No umpire discretion required.

Would that eliminate IBBs and unintentional intentional walks? No, I don’t think it’s possible to do that. I think teams would still pitch around certain hitters, but if they want to avoid the extra base penalty, then they have to give the hitter at least one strike. Judge was IBBed four times Saturday and Sunday and still went 3-for-5 with a homer in those two games. He’s in a zone where, even if he only gets one chance to swing the bat, he’s doing damage. Force the other team to show him at least one strike to avoid the extra base penalty, and Judge could still make something happen.

The downside is unintentional four-pitch walks do happen, and with IBBs becoming so infrequent league-wide, do we really need to punish something that happens during the normal course of baseball every single day? Then again, it’s hard enough to hit as it is these days. The four-pitch walk/extra base rule would boost offense a bit, so why not? Pitchers have enough of an advantage already. Let’s do something for the guys on offense for once. (1.5% of plate appearances have ended in a four-pitch walk in 2024.)

Speaking as a fan, I would be so pissed if I paid these ticket prices and went to a game only to watch Judge getting IBBed two or three times. I understand the strategy, but it would be so lame. The big issue with an IBB punishment rule is what happens when teams instead use unintentional intentional walks to get around it? Punishing or limiting IBBs is a good idea in theory. They’re boring and they’re not common, so it wouldn’t be a league-changing rule. I just don’t know how it actually gets put into practice.

Dan asks: I see only one viable plan to stop opposing teams from walking Judge so much.  They have to bat him leadoff, and they have to have Soto hit behind him, obviously.  By increasing the number of times Judge comes to the plate, they increase the penalty for automatically walking him every time, and giving an MVP caliber player like Soto a chance to drive him in.  What do you think?

Yeah, that is one way – the most obvious way, I’d say – to make the other team at least think twice about pitching around Aaron Judge. Put him in the leadoff spot, get him as many at-bats as possible, and if he does get pitched around, Juan Soto gets to hit with men on base. Maybe Judge at leadoff just means the intentional walks get passed down to Soto? That might be worth it. Soto’s great, but Judge is better, and if only one of them is going to get a chance to swing the bat, I’d rather it be Judge.

Putting traffic on the bases in front of Judge is the best way to force the other team to pitch to him, but even that isn’t foolproof. The Blue Jays walked him with a runner on first and two outs Sunday, and also with runners on second and third with two outs. Had Soto stopped at first on his ninth inning double and given the Yankees runners on the corners rather than runners at second and third, I think Toronto would’ve walked Judge anyway. There was a base open and they weren’t afraid to load the bases.

Aaron Boone said he’s considered flipping Judge and Soto in the lineup – “Probably wouldn't necessarily go that route,” he added – and at some point the Yankees will have to try it if the intentional walks continue. The Yankees can only do so much to stop them. Make sure there’s as many men on base for Judge as possible, and make sure the guys behind him drive him in. Teams are walking Judge because it works. He has 12 IBB this season and has come around to score after just one of them.

Adam asks: I know Grisham’s playing time is going to be significantly reduced at this stage, but do you think it would make sense for his at bats to potentially be prime moments to employ the hit and run? With more speed being injected into the bottom of the lineup (acquisition of Chisholm + Volpe’s move down the lineup) his at bats would likely include more speed on the bases. Also, given his overall passiveness at the plate, this might be something the team can employ to help “force” a little more aggressiveness at the plate in order for him to protect the runner. Thoughts?

It’s been a while since I updated the swing rate leaderboards, so let’s do that now. Setting the minimum to 170 plate appearances gives us:

In-Zone Swing Rate
1. Jose Trevino: 49.8% (who knew?)
2. Nolan Jones: 51.6%
3. Trent Grisham: 51.8%
(MLB average: 66.0%)

Overall Swing Rate
1. Trent Grisham: 35.1%
2. Lars Nootbaar: 36.8%
3. Juan Soto: 36.8% (nothing to say here, Juan knows what he’s doing at the plate)
(MLB average: 47.7%)

Grisham’s passivity is the reason he has an elevated 24.6 K% despite an excellent 7.0% swinging strike rate. He makes plenty of contact when he does swing, he just doesn’t swing much, which equals called strikes and unfavorable counts. Grisham’s contact skills do point to a potential hit-and-run candidate.

A possible issue is Grisham being a fly ball hitter. His batted ball profile is almost exactly 50% fly balls, 40% ground balls, and 10% line drives. Put a hit-and-run on with Grisham and the runner will have to pay extra attention to the ball in play, because if it’s a lazy fly ball, he’ll have to hustle back to first base. DJ LeMahieu circa 2019 was the ideal hit-and-run hitter: 50 GB%, 26 FB%, and 24 LD%.

It seems like Grisham’s batting line never changes. I feel like it’s been at .191/.294/.382 (92 wRC+) since Opening Day, though he is hitting .239/.323/.469 (121 wRC+) in 131 plate appearances since June 1st, which is 73% of his season plate appearances. Maybe forcing him to swing on a hit-and-run can unlock more offense. The fly ball tendency isn’t the best fit though. More grounders and line drives are needed to get the best results.

Brian asks: Last week you covered that JD is unlikely to happen this year since we’re running out of time, is it time to have the Grisham vs Verdugo conversation. Why is Verdugo entitled to playing over Grisham when they have same OPS+ and Grisham much better defensively.

Since Brian sent this question in, Trent Grisham has nudged ahead of Alex Verdugo (92 wRC+ vs. 90 wRC+), and my goodness, Yankees left fielders had a 87 wRC+ last year. Verdugo has been much better defensively than the guys the Yankees ran out there last season (many of whom were infielders thrown into the outfield), but he’s been almost as bad offensively. Left field is cursed.

Verdugo is hitting .225/.269/.350 (74 wRC+) since May 1st, and that 74 wRC+ ranks 142nd among the 148 qualified hitters since that date. Furthermore, most of his production has come against the Red Sox. Since May 1st, he’s hitting .310/.302/.548 (134 wRC+) in 43 plate appearances against Boston and .212/.264/.320 (66 wRC+) in 304 plate appearances against all other teams. Beating the Red Sox is important! Verdugo has been pretty useless at the plate otherwise.

Grisham has performed better offensively the last few weeks, specifically since Giancarlo Stanton got hurt and he became an everyday player. Aaron Judge has not looked particularly comfortable in left field in the limited time he has played there, though I bet he’ll get better with more experience. Based on the last 2-3 months, yeah, I think Grisham in center and Judge in left is better than Judge in center and Verdugo in left. 

Why the Yankees seem to view Verdugo as an every single day player, I do not know. Two weeks ago they put him in the leadoff spot despite weeks of terrible at-bats, and they don’t pinch-hit for him against lefties (to be fair, they don’t have any great pinch-hitting options). The Yankees seem to think Verdugo is better than he is. By no means is Grisham great. Best case for either of these guys is they’re average-ish contributors. I think Grisham is closer to being that now than Verdugo has in months.

George asks: Looking ahead, what do you see in the crystal ball as the 2025 Yankees starting outfield, in two scenarios:  A. If Soto signs, and B. Don't make me even say it.... Thanks

If Juan Soto comes back, then I think we’re looking at Aaron Judge, Jasson Domínguez, and Soto in the outfield from left to right in 2025. Keeping Trent Grisham as the (pricey) fourth outfielder would make sense just to have a guy capable of playing center field everyday in the event Domínguez struggles. If Soto leaves, the Yankees would have to bring in someone from outside the organization. I can’t see them going with Domínguez, Grisham, and Judge as their full-time outfield. Michael Conforto and Max Kepler stand out as lower cost free agents who could interest the Yankees. Or maybe they’d just bring back Alex Verdugo. I’d rather they not do that, but they seem to love the guy, so who knows. I think the Yankees want to work Domínguez into the 2025 outfield with or without Soto. There is no replacing Soto, and we’re gonna feel underwhelmed by whoever the Yankees bring in if he leaves. There’s no way around it.

Greg asks: Hal has said he wants payroll to go down. Quick look at the projected luxury tax for the Yankees has them at 62 million in space for next year (assuming rizzos option is declined). Re-signing soto probably subtracts at least 45 of that 62 million leaving 17 mil left. How realistic is it to field a competitive roster ? How much of that 17 would just go to arbitration raises for guys already on the roster?

Assuming the Yankees decline Anthony Rizzo’s option and Gerrit Cole sticks around (i.e. the Yankees pick up the tenth year club option if he opts out), they currently have six players under contract for a combined $171.5M for 2025: Cole, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, and Giancarlo Stanton. (That $171.5M includes the $10M charge for Aaron Hicks. 2025 is the last year of that.)

Arbitration raises shouldn’t be too big next year. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Nestor Cortes, Trent Grisham, Clarke Schmidt, and Jose Trevino will be priciest arb-eligibles and none of them will top $7M next season. If those five average $6M next year, then we’re at 11 players and $201.5M. Luke Weaver’s $2.5M club option is a no-brainer. Weaver puts us at 12 players and $204M.

Juan Soto at $45M puts the Yankees over the $241M luxury tax threshold for 13 players. From there you’ve got the other 13 roster spots, call ups throughout the year, the $17.5M charge for player benefits, etc. That leaves you with this roster using only players already in the organization and either signed or under team control in 2025, plus Soto (don’t get too hung up on positions and roles, only the names matter):

There is some fat that can be trimmed. Maybe the Yankees can find a taker for Stroman, put Brubaker or Cortes in the rotation, and fill the roster spot with a league minimum arm. They could non-tender Berti and Grisham and replace them with Pereira and Vivas. They could save a million bucks by non-tendering De Los Santos and plugging in Burdi or Marinaccio. Those are all small bites other than Stroman though.

It’s hard to see how the Yankees can stay under the $241M luxury tax threshold next year while re-signing Soto. And they know that. Hal Steinbrenner was bellyaching about payroll a few weeks ago – he called their current payroll “not sustainable” – but the Yankees can reduce payroll without getting under the luxury tax threshold entirely. They can get payroll down to, say, $270M, and save a lot of money*.

* My quick math says this year’s luxury tax bill will be $62M on top of a $315M payroll, so $377M all-in. Cut payroll to $270M next year and the luxury tax bill is $16M, so $286M all-in. It’s a savings of $91M.

Keep in mind the Yankees offered Yoshinobu Yamamoto 10 years and $300M. They were willing to add a $30M a year player to the 2024-33 payroll. Soto will get more than that, but the plan to cut payroll is not so hard-and-fast that they’ll pass up a star in his mid-20s. Now, if Soto signs elsewhere, then all bets are off. Then the Yankees might try to get under $241M. Otherwise I think Hal understands re-signing Soto and getting under the threshold is not doable, but they can still cut payroll and significantly lower the luxury tax bill.

Bert asks: Do you think with the solid play of Austin Wells and the ease of finding a cheap backup catcher (Narvaez?), the Yankees would look to move Trevino this offseason to shed his salary? I know they're considering an offer for Soto and would need to cut payroll elsewhere. What do you think his value is at his projected salary, and is it more worth it to keep him or look to move on?

Carlos Narváez has been impressive, no? We’ve gotten very, very limited looks (three starts and 12 plate appearances) but his at-bats have been good, he threw out the only runner who tried to steal against him, and he hasn’t done anything behind the plate that makes you question his glove. You can see why the Yankees added him to the 40-man roster this past offseason and penciled him in as the No. 3 catcher.

Jose Trevino has one more year of team control and this year’s $2.73M salary puts him in line for $4M or so next season. He’s the best pitch-framer in baseball and he’s one of the best blockers, and by all accounts pitchers love working with him. Trevino can’t throw and the bat is at best average, but he does enough to be one of the two catchers on a contender’s roster. There’d be a market for one year of him.

The Blue Jays just landed two top 20-ish prospects (SS Cutter Coffey and OF Eddinson Paulino) and a pre-breakout rookie ball kid (RHP Gilberto Batista) for half a season of Danny Jansen. Two years ago the Astros traded two top 20-ish prospects (OF Wilyer Abreu and IF Enmanuel Valdez) for half a season of Christian Vázquez. That’s the starting point for a full year of Trevino. Two of your top 20-ish prospects.

The Yankees could also look for a big leaguer for big leaguer trade – one year of Trevino for one year of Colin Rea because the Brewers need a 1A/1B catcher so they can DH William Contreras frequently? – though Trevino’s $4M or so shouldn’t spike any payroll plans next year. I’m inclined to say the Yankees should keep him in 2025, stash Narváez in Triple-A again, then go with Austin Wells and Narváez in 2026, after Trevino becomes a free agent.

Tyler asks: Looking at Enyel de los Santos' statistical profile (good K and BB rates, awful HR rate), I was wondering if he might fit best as a "bottom of the order specialist'? He clearly has good stuff, and you could in theory limit the HR weakness by having him face the bottom of the order, where there are fewer power hitters? Kind of the opposite of the high leverage fireman Luke Weaver types who come in for the middle of the order? 

For sure. There are definitely medium-to-low leverage relievers teams prefer to use against the bottom of the order. With De Los Santos, the best lane for him is a pocket of righties, not necessarily the 7-8-9 spots in the lineup. He’s been much better against righties than lefties the last two years:

2024 vs. RHB: .254/.307/.483 (.339 wOBA) with 29.1 K% and 5.5 BB%
2024 vs. LHB: .235/.339/.627 (.398 wOBA) with 22.0 K% and 13.6 BB%

2023-24 vs. RHB: .211/.278/.368 (.284 wOBA) with 30.0 K% and 6.3 BB%
2023-24 vs. LHB: .260/.354/.487 (.358 wOBA) with 17.4 K% and 12.9 BB%

I don’t think De Los Santos has to be limited to the bottom of the order. He has to be limited against lefties more than anything. If you can match him up against less dangerous righties at the bottom of the lineup, great, do that, but I think left vs. right should dictate his usage, not necessarily where the other team is in their order. Asking him to pitch to a R-L-R-R stretch in the 8-9-1-2 lineup spots is fine, I think. 

Also, I want to note the home run problems this year – 2.27 HR/9 and 18.3% HR/FB! – are out of character for De Los Santos. He had a 0.53 HR/9 (6.1% HR/FB) in over 100 innings from 2022-23. From April 30th to May 29th, De Los Santos allowed seven homers in 9.2 innings. It’s four homers in 35.1 innings the rest of this season, which is an easier to swallow 1.02 HR/9. Expecting 2022-23 homer prevention is probably unrealistic given his new home ballpark. Hopefully De Los Santos can keep it closer to 1.00 HR/9 as the No. 5-6 reliever in the bullpen.

Joe asks: Who would you rather add to the 2024 team: 2009 CC or 2009 Matsui?

That’s tough. On one hand, the Yankees were eliminated the last however many postseasons because the offense fell flat, not because they didn’t pitch. In their three ALCS years they had a 2.97 ERA (2017), a 2.87 ERA (2019), and a 3.28 ERA (2022). That’s plenty good enough to win. The offense let them down, which is a point in favor of 2009 Hideki Matsui, who hit .274/.367/.509 (127 wRC+) during the regular season and .349/.462/.674 (194 wRC+) in the postseason. (Matsui did not play an inning in the field in 2009.)

On the other hand, a 7-8 innings per start ace is a series changer, and I think it’s fair to say the gap between 2009 Matsui and 2024 Giancarlo Stanton is smaller than the gap between 2009 CC Sabathia and whoever the No. 4 postseason starter is this year. 2009 Sabathia doesn’t replace Gerrit Cole, right? He just bumps him down a rung. The No. 4 starter gets replaced, not the No. 1. Sabathia had a 1.98 ERA (3.59 FIP) and averaged 7.3 innings per start in the 2009 postseason. Two of his five starts were on short rest too.

This is a “no wrong answer” question. Force me to pick one and I’ll say Sabathia. I don't fully trust the lineup behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, and Godzilla would fit splendidly in the cleanup spot, but the rotation has been crumbling the last few weeks. 2009 Sabathia was great on his day to pitch, and he pitched so much that he saved the bullpen for other days. Matsui was awesome, but the 2024 Yankees need a CC more than a Matsui right now. Make the decision based on the 2024 team, not why the 2017-22 teams lost in the postseason.

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