March 8th, 2024: Burdi, Kahnle, Peraza, Bench, Spring Breakout, Mailbag

The Yankees will not see Justin Verlander when they begin the regular season in Houston. He’s working his way back from an offseason shoulder issue and will start the season on the injured list. Nothing’s official yet, but I reckon the pitching matchups for that four-game series will look like this:

• March 28th: Gerrit Cole vs. Framber Valdez (Valdez has started the last two Opening Days)
• March 29th: Carlos Rodón vs. Cristian Javier
• March 30th: Marcus Stroman vs. Hunter Brown or José Urquidy
• March 31st: Nestor Cortes vs. Brown or Urquidy

Also, the Astros will be without ace setup man Bryan Abreu. He must serve his two-game suspension for throwing at Adolis Garcia last postseason. It’s ridiculous his suspension was deferred to 2024 on appeal. Relievers usually get 5-8 games for intentionally throwing at a hitter. That suspension was designed to be served in the postseason! Whatever. The Astros lost the ALCS anyway and now the Yankees don’t have to see Abreu for the first two games. It all worked out. Here now is today’s post.

1. Grapefruit League observations. Spring Training record update: 5-7-1 with a +5 run differential. The Yankees have really only played 13 games, eh? Feels like more. I can feel myself getting antsy and wanting the regular season to begin. Here are a few thoughts on the last few Grapefruit League games.

Burdi making case for bullpen spot

It’s only three appearances but wow does non-roster righty Nick Burdi look good. The tiny sample numbers are good (3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K) and the stuff is legitimately elite. He’s sitting 97 mph and has topped out at 99 mph this spring, and his slider is a big breaker with a ton of spin. It is making hitters do this:

Burdi has a very long injury history (two Tommy John surgeries, Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery, plus other arm stuff) and earlier this spring he said he’s lowered his arm slot to relieve stress on his arm. Not only is he healthy right now, but there has been no apparent decline in the quality of his stuff with the new arm slot. If anything, Burdi is getting more run on his fastball and more break on his slider.

“This offseason I was like, ‘You know what? I’m just gonna go for it, see what happens,’” Burdi told Gary Phillips about lowering his arm slot (Statcast says his release point this spring is down about five inches from last season). “And then I got into bullpens. My velocity jumped up. My arm felt better. The slider got better. The changeup was better.”

Talent has never been an issue. Burdi was a rare high draft pick as a college reliever (No. 46 overall in 2014) and he’s fanned 36.0% of the batters he’s faced in the big leagues, albeit in only 15.1 innings spread across 2018-23. The stuff has never wavered, remarkably. Burdi just hasn’t stayed healthy for any length of time. Teams keep giving him opportunities hoping they’ll hit the jackpot. Now the Yankees are trying.

There are two open bullpen spots at the moment (more on that in a bit) and, right now, I think Burdi has to be the favorite for one of them. He’s healthy and you don’t know how long that will last, so get what you can out of him before he gets hurt. I know that sounds harsh, but that is the reality with Burdi. He may only have 20-30 innings to give you, so use them in the big leagues. Don’t waste those bullets in Triple-A.

With any luck, the new arm slot will keep Burdi healthy, and the Yankees have themselves a high strikeout power reliever capable of getting high leverage outs from April through October. He seems like a swell guy and is easy to root for, plus he has the talent to be really freaking good. The Yankees have a need for a bat-missing righty reliever and Burdi can fill that role. He belongs in the Opening Day bullpen.

“It’s one of those things where I feel like I can still do this,” Burdi told Greg Joyce last month. “I feel like at some point, the tides are gonna turn and the health is gonna be there. To be in this locker room – some of the guys I played with last year, we had a saying, ‘We have a jersey, we got a chance.’ To me, if someone’s gonna give me a chance, I want to make the most of it and run with the opportunity.”

Kahnle unlikely to be ready for Opening Day

Earlier this week we got word Tommy Kahnle is behind the other relievers as he works his way back from last year’s season-ending shoulder inflammation, and now it looks like he’ll begin the season on the injured list. Kahnle said it took longer than expected for the inflammation to clear out, and although he is throwing bullpen sessions (video), he’s still 2-3 weeks away from appearing in games.

“It’s trending that way,” Kahnle told Joyce about starting the season on the injured list. “... Obviously we knew there was inflammation in there. It just didn’t clear up (as quickly) as we thought. But it wasn’t anything serious, no structural (damage) or anything. It just took longer than I expected for the pain to go away. It feels good. No pain, no nothing. Just been trucking.”

Kahnle, 35 in April, began last season on the injured list with a biceps issue that kept him out until June 1st. The shoulder issue popped up in the final week of the regular season. In between, Kahnle had a 2.66 ERA (3.97 FIP) with strong strikeout (29.1%) ground ball (48.0%), and exit velocity (86.8 mph) rates. Few too many walks though (11.5%). With Kahnle and Scott Effross sidelined, the bullpen currently looks like this:

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• Setup: LHP Caleb Ferguson, RHP Jonathan Loáisiga
• Middle: LHP Victor González, RHP Ian Hamilton, TBD, TBD
• Long: RHP Luke Weaver

Burdi should get one of those two open spots. He looks great and he’s healthy, so get him in there. I wouldn’t say there’s a favorite for the other spot yet. There’s still too much time remaining in Spring Training. It feels like the Yankees want Ron Marinaccio to get it given how much he’s pitched in the early going this spring, but he’s pitched poorly, so he might be losing a grip on that spot. Nick Ramirez is fine.

Luis Gil looked quite good Tuesday and he threw 2.2 innings and 48 pitches, so the Yankees are stretching him out. They might prefer to give him some Triple-A time so soon after Tommy John surgery. Would the Yankees put Will Warren in the bullpen? I don’t think so (not yet, anyway), but you could argue he’s one of the 13 best pitchers in the organization, and thus should be in the bullpen.

These decisions don’t have to be made yet. The Yankees still have time to hold auditions, see who looks the best, and line their guys up. And if the relievers the Yankees take north don’t perform, they’ll swap them out for someone else in April. I know it’s an unsatisfying answer, but the second TBD spot is likely to be a revolving door. It won’t be one guy who fills it. It’ll be several shuttling in and out. (Burdi has options remaining, in case you’re wondering.)

Kahnle said he expects to begin pitching in games during the first week of the regular season, suggesting this could be a short absence. Maybe 3-4 rehab games? Then again, I would take the over on a soon-to-be 35-year-old reliever with a shoulder issue. It doesn’t take much for two weeks to become two months. It happened last year with Kahnle’s biceps issue. Such is life with aging relievers. Get well soon, Tommy Tightpants.

Peraza’s shoulder acting up again

Following an eight-day absence, Oswald Peraza returned to the lineup Tuesday and Wednesday, and his shoulder is already barking again. Peraza had renewed discomfort earlier this week – specifically, he said he doesn’t feel like he can get much on his throws – and was sent for tests Thursday. We should get an update sometime Friday.

“He felt like he couldn’t really rip it across the diamond like he would have wanted,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. “We’ll see what we’ve got in there and continue to treat it accordingly.”

Peraza’s shoulder injury was initially described as “tightness,” then it was described as “pinching,” and his return to the lineup was pushed back at least twice. When I wrote about Peraza’s future last week, I laid out the shortstop depth chart like this:

1. Anthony Volpe
(big gap)
2. Oswald Peraza
(gap)
3. Oswaldo Cabrera
4. Kevin Smith
(gap)
5. Jeter Downs

Hopefully Peraza gets good news and this shoulder issue is minor, but renewed discomfort is never good, and the Yankees aren’t exactly brimming with shortstop depth. They made a run at Enrique Hernández and I’m certain they’re still looking for bench help, if not ramping up those efforts. (I had something planned on possible bench targets anyway, so good timing.)

For Peraza, the last thing the kid needs is to miss time with an injury. He doesn’t have a defined big league role and going back to Triple-A for a third straight year would not be ideal. It would be better than missing a bunch of time with a shoulder injury though. Fingers crossed Peraza’s shoulder injury is minor, both for his sake and the Yankees’. Finding a half-decent backup shortstop is nigh impossible this time of year.

Latest roster cuts

Opening Day is two weeks and six days away and the roster cuts will start coming fast and furious soon. There are only so many at-bats and innings available in Grapefruit League games and the big leaguers are taking more and more of them. Here’s who was sent to minor league camp this week: IF Jeter Downs, IF Caleb Durbin, OF Spencer Jones, OF Brandon Lockridge, and LHP Tanner Tully.

Jones went 7-for-15 (.467) with a double, a home run, two walks, and three strikeouts during Grapefruit League play before being sent out. He saw 91 pitches and did not swing and miss once (31 swings). I’m sure we’ll see him a few more times as a minor league call up before camp is over, but what we did see before he was reassigned was fun. Not 2023 Jasson Domínguez fun, but fun.

“He is such a presence and dynamic athlete in a lot of ways,” Boone told Bill Ladson about Jones. “He is kind of scratching the surface on his baseball career. He wasn’t a full-time position player until not long ago. He is one of those guys with an incredibly high ceiling just based on his strength and athleticism. It’s fun watching him play center too. He just kind of glides out there.”

None of the other demotions are surprising – Downs was a long shot candidate at best for the bench – and I count 55 players still in big league camp. In addition to demotions, the Yankees probably have a few opt outs coming up soon. I don’t know who has one (Greg Allen? Dennis Santana? Duane Underwood Jr.?) but I’m sure the Yankees have a few coming.

Up next

Here are the upcoming schedule and pitching probables (here’s the Grapefruit League broadcast schedule):

• Friday at Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman (YES app)
• Saturday at Twins: Nestor Cortes (no TV)
• Sunday vs. Braves: TBA (YES)
• Monday vs. Orioles: TBA (YES) (split squad)
• Monday at Phillies: TBA (Phillies TV) (split squad)

All afternoon games, as the Spring Training gods intended. Clarke Schmidt is lined up to pitch Sunday and so is Will Warren. My guess is the Yankees will push Warren back a day so he can start one of Monday’s split squad games. That would also line him up perfectly for the Spring Breakout game next Saturday.

Gerrit Cole threw a simulated game Thursday and the Yankees are giving their starters an extra day or two this next trip through the rotation. That serves as a little mid-spring breather (this is usually when we begin to hear guys are going through a dead arm phase), and also allows them to get everyone lined up. We should see Cole, Carlos Rodón, Stroman, Cortes, and Schmidt in that order for the first time late next week.

Miscellany

Rodón gave up home runs on his first pitch and his final pitch Tuesday, and I thought he was just okay in between. His velocity was down a bit from his first spring start (he threw a simulated game between his two Grapefruit League starts) and he threw his new cutter a few times, but there were a lot of comfortable swings and comfortable takes (only five whiffs on 27 swings). It looked a lot like last year’s Rodón. He has another three Grapefruit League starts remaining, so hopefully he locks it in between now and then. Tuesday was not particularly encouraging though. If only there was a reigning Cy Young winner sitting in free agency who could strengthen the rotation … Two other veterans I hope lock it in before Opening Day: DJ LeMahieu (1-for-12) and Giancarlo Stanton (1-for-15). It’s only March 8th and I know how this works with veteran hitters, especially when they’re working on swing adjustments (like Stanton), but still, I’d like to see some signs of life from those two soon, just for my own sanity … Luke Weaver through three Grapefruit League appearances (5.1 innings and 25 batters faced): three strikeouts and six swings and misses (99 pitches). That’s a 12.0% strikeout rate and 6.1% swinging strike rate. Not great! He does have a 63% ground ball rate, so that’s nice. Still, the new delivery hasn’t helped Weaver’s bat-missing ability much (he said the new delivery has to do with health and repeatability) … And finally, Max Goodman passes along word that journeyman utility player Derek Dietrich has joined the Yankees as a "culture and accountability coordinator." Dietrich played some with Triple-A Scranton (and Double-A Somerset) in 2021 and 2022, then a 50-game PED suspension effectively ended his playing career in Aug. 2022. Now he’s basically a vibes coach in position to “help bridge the gap with our players, whether through communication or through on-field and off-field experience,” as Dietrich put it. Alrighty.

2. Scouting the Market: Bench candidates. For the fourth straight year, the Yankees have waited until Spring Training to pursue bench upgrades. I guess I can’t really say that, I’m sure they kept an eye out for bench pieces over the winter (hence all the waiver claims?), but it’s Spring Training now and the Yankees are still looking for bench players. It’s an annual thing. The last few years:

• 2021: Signed Jay Bruce as camp opened, traded for Rougned Odor after Opening Day.
• 2022: Signed Marwin Gonzalez as camp opened (to be fair, this was the lockout year).
• 2023: Signed Franchy Cordero the day before Opening Day.

Last week we learned the Yankees had interest in Enrique Hernández before he returned to the Dodgers, and they offered him close to $4M too. Even with the 110% luxury tax rate, the Yankees were willing to spend some money on the bench. Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza are a combined 1-for-28 this spring (and Peraza’s shoulder is acting up again). I reckon the Yankees are still looking for bench pieces.

Hernández was, by a good margin, the best available free agent bench type, and that says more about the market than him seeing how he hit .237/.289/.357 (72 wRC+) and was a -0.1 WAR player in 2023. There’s not a whole lot out there right now, though I suppose something could shake loose on the trade market over the next week or two. I bet the Yankees are hoping something does. That would be the preferred outcome.

Since we know the Yankees are looking for bench upgrades, let’s examine the players still available in free agency, and see whether they make any sense. I’m going to throw a few relievers in here too because the Yankees are already without Scott Effross (and Lou Trivino), and it sounds increasingly likely Tommy Kahnle will begin the season on the injured list. Here are the best role players available, listed alphabetically.

IF Hanser Alberto

2023 stats: .220/.261/.390 (74 wRC+), 3 HR, 4.4 BB%, 14.4 K% (90 PA with White Sox)

Alberto, 31, spent 70 days on the Yankees’ 40-man roster between waiver claims during the 2018-19 offseason. As recently as 2022, the very smart Dodgers saw fit to give him an MLB deal worth $1.6M, though that didn’t really work out, and he started last season with the White Sox before being released in June. Alberto did play winter ball this offseason, so he’s still out there giving it a go.

Once upon a time Alberto was a gifted defender who could legitimately play shortstop in the big leagues and provide a little thump against lefties, though it’s been a few years since he was that guy. I have a hard time believing the Yankees (or any team) sees Alberto as a plug-and-play bench guy. If he’s willing to go to Triple-A on a minor league deal, fine, whatever, but carrying him on the Opening Day roster is not advised.

UTIL Adalberto Mondesi

2023 stats: Did not play (injured with Red Sox)

It has been almost two calendar years since Mondesi last stepped on a big league field – his last MLB game was April 26th, 2022 – because of a torn ACL and a subsequent setback(s). He’s still only 28, and he must be somewhat healthy because the Marlins had interest in him for their shortstop job a few weeks ago, but Mondesi remains unsigned. So maybe he isn’t healthy after all?

When healthy, Mondesi really is a dynamic talent. He’s very fast, he puts up big exit velocities, and he’s got a rocket arm. The downside (other than the injuries) is a complete lack of approach at the plate. Mondesi will chase and whiff as much as anyone in the game. His last healthy season was the 2020 pandemic season, when he played 59 games. The 2020 numbers sum up his skill set well:

• .256/.294/.416 (88 wRC+) with 6 HR
• MLB-leading 24 steals with a 75% success rate
• 30.0% strikeouts and 4.7% walks
• 20.1% swinging strikes and 35.0% chase rate
• 90.6 mph average exit velocity
• +4 OAA at shortstop

Incredible natural talent and raw tools, but a rudimentary approach and an inability to stay healthy will likely always hold him back. It could be that a reduced workload and a bench role is the best (only?) way to keep Mondesi on the field. Without knowing where he is health-wise, it’s hard to say whether he’s a viable bench candidate. Mondesi is the kinda Statcast star the Yankees tend to target though (like Franchy).

IF Donovan Solano

2023 stats: .282/.369/.391 (116 wRC+), 5 HR, 8.9 BB%, 22.2 K% (450 PA with Twins)

That’s former Yankee Donovan Solano to you. Remember his nine-game stint as a September call up in 2016? He went 5-for-22 (.227) with two doubles and a homer (video). Solano has bounced around a lot since then and he had a nice little three-year stretch with the Giants from 2019-21. Last year he was a heavily used platoon guy with the Twins even though his platoon split was fairly even:

• vs. RHP: .280/.380/.386 (120 wRC+) with 9.8 BB% and 22.9 K%
• vs. LHP: .286/.346/.400 (110 wRC+) with 7.2 BB% and 20.9 K%
• 33 PA as a pinch-hitter (.276/.310/.333 and 82 wRC+ as PH)
• 64 starts at 1B, 13 starts at 3B, 10 starts at 2B
• Average to slightly below average defense at all three spots

With Hernández off the board, Solano is the best available free agent bench player. He’s a legitimate big leaguer, which is more than you can say for most unsigned players on March 8th, and he offers a little versatility plus a history of hitting lefties (last year’s splits are not the norm). The Yankees could use a righty pinch-hitter, no? For Alex Verdugo and Austin Wells? There’s a role here for Solano.

Solano’s skill set is LeMahieuian. They’re very similar as righty contact-over-power guys you can plug in at either corner infield spot, and even second base in a pinch. Ideally you’d have a little more diversity on the bench – Hernández could also play the outfield, for example – but doubling up on this skill set isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Third base is unsettled and Solano would provide protection at first base as well. It works.

The Twins gave Solano one year and $2M last offseason, so I assume the $4M or so the Yankees were willing to give Hernández would more than cover a Solano signing. Throw Solano another $2M contract, eat the additional $2.2M luxury tax charge, and upgrade the bench. The Yankees would still have to carry one of the Oswald(o)s as the backup shortstop, but Solano would push the other Oswald(o) to Triple-A.

RHP Ryne Stanek

2023 stats: 4.09 ERA (4.60 FIP), 23.9 K%, 9.9 BB%, 30.7 GB% (50.2 IP with Astros)

Why is Stanek still unsigned? This isn’t evil Scott Boras trying to strong-arm the poor unfortunate owners into a big contract (Stanek’s an MVP Sports client). Eight bullpen spots per team equals 240 bullpen spots league-wide, not counting all the up and down arms. There’s just no chance there are 240 better relievers in baseball than Stanek, who has a career 27.8% strikeout rate and high leverage experience.

Last year was Stanek’s worst 162-game season, to be fair, but he’s a year removed from a 1.15 ERA (3.02 FIP) with a 27.7% strikeout for a World Series winner. He’s only 32, his fastball averaged 98.2 mph in 2023, his slider and splitter each had whiff rates north of 40%, and he had the lowest walk rate of his career. Yet here we are on March 8th, and he’s unsigned. Explain this one to me. I just don’t get it.

There was interest in Stanek throughout the offseason, but the teams that were interested in him ultimately went in other directions. Maybe he’s injured? Stanek rolled his ankle covering first base last September and missed two weeks, but he came back before the season ended and pitched in the postseason. That is Stanek’s only non-COVID injured list stint since 2019. If he’s hurt, it hasn’t been reported anywhere.

Effross (and Trivino) is going to miss half the season, Kahnle is probably going to start the year on the injured list, and Ron Marinaccio has 24 walks and 19 strikeouts in 20 innings since being sent to Triple-A last July (Spring Training included). The Yankees can talk up Nick Burdi and other non-roster relievers all they want. You don’t have to try hard to see how Stanek on a one-year deal would fit in the bullpen.

Veterans on minor league deals

All across the league are veteran players on minor league contracts with an opt out before Opening Day. We don’t always know who they are, but players with 6+ years of service time automatically get an opt out five days before Opening Day when they sign a minor league deal. This year, that’s March 23rd. Lyle Overbay used one of these 6+ years of service time opt outs to leave the Red Sox and join the Yankees in 2013.

More than a few veterans sign minor league deals in March just to get into camp and play, and showcase themselves for interested teams. Does Kolten Wong really expect to make the Orioles? Are there really first base and DH at-bats available for C.J. Cron in Boston? No and no. They signed with those teams so they can play, get in shape, and remind everyone they exist. They’ll use their opt outs if a better opportunity comes along.

The last two years the Yankees picked up Colten Brewer, Franchy Cordero, and David McKay at the end of Spring Training after they used opt outs, though those guys don’t have six years of service time yet. That just goes to show it’s not only the veterans who have opt outs. Here now are five veterans with opt outs who could interest the Yankees as bench/bullpen candidates as we get closer to Opening Day.

UTIL Brian Anderson, Mariners: There might be a path for Anderson to make the Mariners because Luis Urías, the righty half of their third base platoon with Josh Rojas, is dealing with a shoulder issue. Anderson is primarily a third baseman and right fielder, and his .231/.317/.362 (88 wRC+) line with a 27.2% strikeouts the last three years isn’t overly impressive. He’s just a warm body, and hey, maybe that’s all the Yankees are looking for. A warm body for the 26th roster spot.

IF Elvis Andrus, Diamondbacks: The D’Backs have already decided Geraldo Perdomo is their starting shortstop and top prospect Jordan Lawlar is going back to the minors. Arizona doesn’t have a backup shortstop (unless they’re comfortable with Jace Peterson there, and he hasn’t played more than one inning at short since 2018), so Andrus could make the team. He’s 35 now, he hit .251/.304/.358 (81 wRC+) last year, and his defensive numbers are in decline. Solano’s the better player, but if the Yankees determine they must have someone capable of playing short, Andrus is the better fit.

RHP Carl Edwards Jr., Cubs: One of the original spin rate guys, Edwards had a respectable season with the Nationals last year (3.69 ERA and 3.86 FIP), albeit one with poor strikeout (16.9%) and walk (12.0%) rates, and a fluky low home run rate (0.28 HR/9 and 3.3% HR/FB). Edwards is only 32 and he’s managed to appear in the big leagues every year since 2015. The Cubs have a crowded (but not really great) bullpen, so Edwards could be squeezed out. Perhaps the Yankees can do more with Edwards and his spin rates than Washington.

UTIL Josh Harrison and 2B/LF Tony Kemp, Reds: Barring injury, the Reds have no room on their bench for Harrison (a hometown Cincinnati guy) or Kemp, two players the Yankees have had interest in previously. I suppose the Reds could send top prospect Noelvi Marte back to the minors, though he played well in 35 games last year (.316/.366/.456 and 120 wRC+) and seems locked in at third base. Harrison can play all over and was productive from 2021-22 (101 wRC+) before cratering in 2023 (51 wRC+). Kemp started terribly last year, but did have a 104 wRC+ from June 1st through the end of the season, and he walked more than he struck out for the third time in four years. Both are regarded as great clubhouse guys too. I could see the Yankees making a move here if Harrison and/or Kemp don’t make the Reds. They’ve had interest in both in the past and either could fill the last bench spot.

* * *

One more name to watch: Ernie Clement. If the name is familiar, it’s because Clement was the only player in the minors with a lower strikeout rate than Caleb Durbin in 2023. He’s played every position but catcher in his career, he slashed .348/.401/.544 (136 wRC+) in Triple-A last year, and he’s out of options. The Blue Jays don’t have room for him on the bench unless they option Santiago Espinal ($2.725M salary in 2024) or Davis Schneider, or Dan Vogelbach doesn’t make the team. Clement could hit waivers soon.

Solano is pretty clearly the best available bench option. I mean among actual bench guys. Not unrealistic “sign J.D. Martinez or Brandon Belt as a bench bat!” scenarios. Could the Yankees get Solano and Stanek together for the same $4M-ish they were ready to pay Hernández by himself? No idea, but might as well ask, right? We know this much: the Yankees are not happy with their bench and are actively seeking upgrades. There’s not much out there, but what is out there might be better than what they have.

3. Spring Breakout roster announced. MLB revealed the Spring Breakout rosters Thursday, and in typical MLB "is anyone paying attention to anything?" fashion, the rosters were all online before the MLB Network broadcast. Anyway, the Somerset Patriots put together a graphic, saving me the trouble of typing out the names (it’s a seven-inning game, remember):

The notable omissions are Austin Wells and Clayton Beeter. Wells is trying to grab a big league roster spot and will work toward that rather than play in a prospect showcase. Beeter could be in the mix for a bullpen spot. It also could be as simple as he’s not lined up to pitch that day, and the Yankees don’t want to throw his pitching schedule out of whack to get him into Spring Breakout. (Tigers top prospect Jackson Jobe will not pitch in Spring Breakout for that reason, per Jason Beck.)

Brando Mayea is not participating, though I kinda figured he might not seeing how he spent last year in the Dominican Summer League. I’m very pleased by how many rookie ball kids are on the roster, namely Arias, Cruz, Delgado, Lagrange, Lalane, and Tejeda. I guess that’s the point though, right? To showcase players you usually don’t get to see this time of year (or any time of year if you don’t watch MiLB.tv).

I wrote a bunch of prospect stuff last month so I will direct you to that for more on these players: Top 30 Prospects, Not Top 30 Prospects, Prospects to Know, and prospects who fell out of the Top 30. Not much more to say about the Spring Breakout roster (because I said it last post). Hooray prospects, I guess. The game is scheduled for next Saturday, March 16th. Yankees prospects vs. Blue Jays prospects in Tampa.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. A few months ago I answered a mailbag question about the line of succession behind George Steinbrenner, and the series of events that led to Hal Steinbrenner taking over. At one point George named Steve Swindal (his son-in-law) his successor, but Swindal and Jennifer Steinbrenner got divorced in 2007, and that was that. I bring this up because, earlier this week, Joel Sherman wrote about Steve Swindal Jr., who works for the Yankees and is rising through the baseball operations ranks. Steve Jr. is a candidate (but not a lock) to one day succeed Hal, not that Hal is stepping down anytime soon. Anyway, there’s a good read on Steve Jr. and his backstory, and where things may be heading in the future.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Anonymous asks: Gleyber’s swing/stance looks different to me on his home run a couple days ago. Reminds me a bit of A-Rod. Haven’t seen anybody talk about him making changes and I know it’s common for guys to experiment in spring training but curious if this will stick and if it’s real or I’m imagining the change.

You’re not imagining it. There are some differences. Here are the before and after GIFs:

The leg kick is different. Last year Gleyber picked up his leg and it hung there. This spring the leg kick is much smaller. It’s almost a toe tap. (Torres eliminates his leg kick in two-strike counts, these swings were earlier in the count.) I don’t see anything different with his hands – Torres will use one-handed and two-handed follow-throughs throughout the season – and once Gleyber’s front foot lands and he’s in the hitting position, it looks the same. He’s just getting there in a different way.

I have not read or seen anything about Torres working on swing changes, though during one of his offseason videos (I forget which one, exactly), he said he likes to try a bunch of different things during the offseason and Spring Training, and see what feels good. He meant everything from swing changes to a new stance to a new bat size. Gleyber’s a tinkerer, so I’m not surprised his swing looks different right now.

File this under “we’ll see where he’s at in a few weeks.” Torres admitted a lot of the changes he tries don’t stick, so the swing you see on March 6th may not look like the swing you see on April 6th. He’s having a good spring (5-for-16 with a homer), which is nice, though I wouldn’t read anything into it. Hopefully any swing changes he’s working on can get him to another level. Gleyber’s really good, but there are always ways to get better.

(Tim Britton (subs. req’d) is running a series projecting extensions and he pegged Torres for four years and $68M based on Chris Taylor’s four-year, $60M deal with the Dodgers. Their numbers leading up to free agency are similar, though Taylor’s deal covers his age 31-34 seasons. A four-year deal for Torres would cover ages 28-31. If Gleyber is willing to take four years and $68M, the Yankees need to do that like yesterday.)

Sam asks: Are the splits for Grisham and Verdugo strong enough for the Yankees to always start Grisham vs. LHP and Verdugo vs. RHP? What is the argument for Verdugo playing every day?

I’m not sure what to make of Trent Grisham’s numbers against lefties. Here are his splits:

2023 vs. RHP: .178/.298/.325 (79 wRC+) with 13.6 BB% and 28.6 K% (412 PA)
2023 vs. LHP: .256/.362/.430 (124 wRC+) with 13.3 BB% and 25.2 K% (143 PA)

Career vs. RHP: .207/.310/.373 (92 wRC+) with 12.1 BB% and 26.5 K% (1,523 PA)
Career vs. LHP: .242/.333/.415 (110 wRC+) with 10.0 BB% and 25.5 K% (518 PA)

Grisham’s contact quality (exit velocity, etc.) is roughly the same from each side of the plate. Is this really enough – 518 plate appearances against lefties spread across parts of five seasons – to say Grisham is a reverse split guy? The reverse split is consistent throughout his career. There’s not one outlier year skewing that career 110 wRC+ against lefties. At this point, I think we should assume this is who Grisham is as a player until he proves otherwise.

Alex Verdugo has been much better against righties both in 2023 (109 wRC+ vs. 67 wRC+) and throughout his career (115 wRC+ vs. 80 wRC+). They’re both left-handed hitters, but the numbers say Grisham and Verdugo should be platooned. This deep into his career, we have to take Grisham’s steady reverse splits seriously. And if a platoon doesn’t work this year, the Yankees can adjust. To start the year, platoon them. (There’s the defense to consider too. It’s much better with Grisham out there.)

With Chris Sale traded and Shane McClanahan hurt, the AL East is short on power lefties starters who miss bats (and aren’t Yankees). The best is Yusei Kikuchi, right? Then it’s Cole Irvin and John Means, and Means is dealing with an elbow issue. They play fewer games within the division now, but those are pretty favorable left-on-left matchups for Grisham. Yeah, the Yankees should platoon Grisham and Verdugo to begin the season. Let Grisham show he can’t do it, don’t just assume he can’t.

Jack asks: Like many Yankee fans these days, I think more and more about contracts (and the fine details in terms of deferrals, opt-outs, front-loading, etc) and finances, especially in trying to imagine a way to sneak Snell or Monty onto the roster while minimizing the 110% damage. This caused me to wonder if a team could hand out an exceptionally long contract and just cut the player instead of having him retire. I'll give you an example. Let's say a 35-year old player wants to play for 5 more years. To help with the cap, could a team sign him instead to a ten year deal for $100m, making it a $10m luxury tax hit instead of $20m, and then just cut him after five (instead of "retiring")? The savings would be enormous, especially with the 110% penalty. Or imagine Judge, two years before his deal is up, decides he's going to retire at the end of this contract. He's got a $36m tax hit. Could he sign a 3-year extension at $1m a year, taking his contract from 10/360 to 13/363, and taking his tax hit down to roughly $27.9m (he would then be cut at the end of the 10th year)? Judge would get more money and the Yankees would save money in this case... plus give the team more of a chance to win! Surely there's something preventing this sort of manipulation from happening, right?

To answer the second question first, MLB would not allow the Aaron Judge extension because it is blatant luxury tax circumvention. Adding three years at $1M a year to his existing contract serves no purpose other than lowering his luxury tax hit. The Collective Bargaining Agreement says, in several places, the team and player can not agree to “any terms designed to defeat or circumvent” the luxury tax. That is open to interpretation, but in the case of this hypothetical Judge extension, it’s pretty obvious.

As for the first question, this is more or less what the Yankees did with Aaron Hicks, right? His seven-year, $70M extension was essentially a five-year, $70M extension (the going rate for a free agent center fielder at the time, that was Lorenzo Cain and Dexter Fowler money) stretched out over seven years to lower the luxury tax hit. When Hicks was no longer useful, the Yankees released him, but they still have to pay him per the terms of his contract through 2025. This fits Jack’s example, no?

DJ LeMahieu might end up in this category too. His six-year, $90M contract looks like the four-year, $92M contract the Twins gave Josh Donaldson one year earlier, only stretched out over six years. LeMahieu has three more years to go on his contract – this would’ve been the final year if it were a four-year deal – and could be trending toward a release at some point. I don’t think the Yankees are anywhere close to that yet, but in a year or two, who knows? This is another one that fits Jack’s example.

From the player’s perspective, the downside to turning a five-year, $100M contract into a 10-year, $100M contract for luxury tax purposes is having to wait longer to get paid. A dollar 10 years from now is worth less than a dollar today. From the team’s perspective, the downside is saddling yourself with payments far down the road, and how big of a deal is that? Hard to say without knowing each team’s financial inner workings. Such a contract is within the rules though. It just hasn’t been done to that extreme a degree.

Chris asks: Not a Yankees-specific question per se, but how do you think the Snell/Montgomery/Bellinger/Chapman/JDM fiasco affects the Boras empire? Personally, I’m confused why those players haven’t outright fired him this offseason. Are other players around the league having doubts about him?

I don’t think it affects much, honestly. Scott Boras got Jung-Hoo Lee basically double what was projected a few weeks ago. He got Jose Altuve a $125M extension covering his age 35-39 seasons even though Altuve has said he wants to retire an Astro and was never really a threat to leave. Boras got Frankie Montas $16M guaranteed after he had major shoulder surgery and threw 1.1 innings last year!

Things didn’t go Boras’ way with Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, and they might not go his with Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell either, but it’s not the first time this has happened. Jake Arrieta, J.D. Martinez, and Mike Moustakas all signed very late during the 2018-19 offseason, and Dallas Keuchel didn’t sign until after the 2019 draft. Moustakas took a one-year, $6.5M deal after turning down the $17.4M qualifying offer.

There were the same “should players fire Boras? has he lost his touch?” questions then that there are now, and the next offseason Boras landed what were then the two richest pitching contracts in baseball history (Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg), a $245M deal for a guy who doesn’t like baseball (Anthony Rendon), plus a combined $135.5M for Keuchel and Moustakas after they took haircuts the previous year.

This is not the first time Boras has had a bad – “bad” – offseason and it won’t be the last. When the bad offseasons begin to pile up and we see two or three in a row, then it’ll be time to wonder if Boras has lost his fastball. We’re not there yet with this weak free agent class, and when Boras is a year removed from getting Xander Bogaerts $280M and Carlos Correa three $200M+ offers despite a bad ankle.

Paul asks: In spring training live batting practice, do you hope for hitters to do well or pitchers?

The easy answer is I hope no one gets hurt, but I do think there’s a “correct” answer to this depending on the matchups. I’d rather see Spencer Jones take Gerrit Cole deep than Cole work him over on three pitches. I don’t worry about Cole. He’ll be fine. I’d rather see Jones have success against the best pitcher he’s ever faced. Similarly, I’d rather see Chase Hampton mow through Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. I don’t worry about those two even a tiny little bit. Hampton succeeding against MLB hitters though? Hell yeah. If it’s veteran vs. veteran, like Cole vs. Judge or Carlos Rodón vs. DJ LeMahieu or Marcus Stroman vs. Alex Verdugo, then please no one get hurt. I don’t care who does well as long as they all come through in one piece. Same with young player vs. young player. Just stay healthy. When it’s young player vs. veteran though, I’d rather the young player do well, and potentially build confidence going into the season, if not learn something new through feedback from MLB players.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)