Poll: The 2024 Leadoff Hitter

For the first time in a while, the Yankees specifically targeted their offensive weaknesses this offseason. The last few years it felt like they were simply assembling players, which led to too many righties and too much swing-and-miss. This offseason there was a concerted effort to bring in lefties who make contact (Trent Grisham, Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Jorbit Vivas), and they were badly needed to balance the lineup.

One thing the Yankees still lack is a clearly defined leadoff hitter. The 2024 Yankees could really use a peak Brett Gardner type who grinds out at-bats, gets on base a lot, and runs well. With any luck, Anthony Volpe will become that leadoff hitter later this year, though I think we need to see his OBP start with a 3 for a good length of time before we seriously consider it. Right now, Volpe’s not a leadoff option.

The “correct” solution to the leadoff problem is Soto. Soto is the best OBP player in the sport and Aaron Judge is the game’s best power hitter, so bat Soto one and Judge two, and let ‘em eat. Get those two as many at-bats as possible within a game and within a season. That’s not going to happen though. At least not yet. All indications are Soto and Judge will hit 2-3 in either order to begin the season.

Excluding Soto and Volpe (and Judge, who’s hit leadoff a bunch as well), I see four leadoff candidates, realistically. Some are better than others, though you needn’t try hard to see any of the four hitting atop the lineup in 2024. Here are the Yankees’ four leadoff candidates, listed alphabetically. We’ll vote on our preferred option later.

DJ LeMahieu

From 2019-23, LeMahieu started 467 games at leadoff, or 66% of the Yankees’ 708 regular season games. I would’ve guessed it was more than 66%, but 66% it is. All indications are the Yankees want LeMahieu to be their leadoff hitter, and considering the guy hit .273/.377/.432 (129 wRC+) in the second half last season, he’s not a bad option. Judge wants LeMahieu to hit leadoff. That much is clear.

“I’ve seen a couple of lineups thrown out there,” Judge said at a charity event last month (video). “I think (Aaron Boone) has me penciled into center field and right behind that new guy, Soto. Just keep the top three: DJ, Soto, and me. We’ll get it going for you.”

When he’s going right, LeMahieu is an obvious fit at the leadoff spot. He works the count, doesn’t strike out much, and he’s not really a power hitter, so you’re not turning an inordinate number of home runs into solo shots. The downside is LeMahieu is very slow, so it’s station-to-station baseball when he’s the lead runner, and he’s going to turn 36 later this year. Last year’s second half followed 2.5 middling years*.

“He’s just more explosive to me in the batting cage. To me, it’s very noticeable,” Boone said about LeMahieu last week. “I felt like he started to address some things in the second half of last season and put together a stronger second half. But to me, he’s even in a way better physical position than he was then, and any time probably in the last couple years.”

Truth be told, LeMahieu’s great second half was really just a great August – he hit .291/.391/.506 (152 wRC+) last August – and he took a .285 OBP into the All-Star break. He also had a big platoon split in 2023:

• vs. RHP: .241/.320/.387 (98 wRC+) with 22.2 K% and 10.0 BB%
• vs. LHP: .255/.357/.404 (116 wRC+) with 22.3 K% and 13.4 BB%

Is the soon-to-be 36-year-old LeMahieu who you want setting the table for Soto and Judge, especially against righties? How confident are you that 2023 second half LeMahieu (really August 2023 LeMahieu) is the real LeMahieu and not Opening Day 2021 through the 2023 All-Star break LeMahieu? His lack of speed is also a negative, though the Yankees are not exactly loaded with speedsters, so I’m not sure that matters.

Generally speaking, LeMahieu has a good leadoff hitter’s skill set. He does see a lot of pitches, he will take walks, he doesn’t strike out excessively, and you won’t “waste” power up there. The difference between the Yankees when LeMahieu is going well and when LeMahieu is going poorly is noticeable. The best version of the Yankees has effective LeMahieu atop the lineup. Can he still be that guy?

* Not entirely true! LeMahieu hit .279/.383/.403 (133 wRC+) in the first half of 2022. Then he hurt his toe and his production went in the tank. Who’s to say the first half of 2023 wasn’t simply LeMahieu continuing to get over the toe injury, and the first half of 2022 and the second half of 2023 better represents who he is?

Anthony Rizzo

Unconventional, yes, but Rizzo has hit leadoff 72 times in his career, including nine times with the Yankees. He hit leadoff in the 2021 Wild Card Game! And before the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. last year, Rizzo was hitting .304/.376/.505 (146 wRC+). He was awesome and giving that guy more at-bats is a good idea. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 (134 wRC+) in 2022 too. Pre-concussion Rizzo was really good.

Assuming Rizzo rebounds to something reasonably close to his pre-concussion form, I see two reasons to not hit him leadoff. First, he’s slow, so it’s again station-to-station baseball when he’s the lead runner. That isn’t a complete deal-breaker, though it is suboptimal. Then again, the Yankees are not blessed with much speed outside Volpe. Getting on base and hitting well is more important than running fast to me.

And second, Rizzo’s a legit 30-homer bat with a good old school RBI approach. He’s someone you want driving runs in, not setting the table. You don’t want to hit him too far down the lineup – the five hole is as low as I would go with the good version of Rizzo, and I’d rather not go lower than cleanup – but in a perfect world, Rizzo is behind Soto and Judge, and cashing in on whatever opportunities those two leave behind.

If Rizzo does not bounce back well from the concussion, then he’s definitely not hitting leadoff, and the Yankees have a pretty big problem on their hands. Let’s assume he’s all good though. In that case, putting Rizzo in the leadoff spot would mean a good on-base presence who can give you a quick 1-0 lead with one swing, though it would also leave a lefty power void lower in the lineup behind Soto and Judge.

Gleyber Torres

Torres batted leadoff 32 times last season, including for an extended stretch in mid-to-late May, which was the Yankees’ best few weeks of the season. He hit .273/.347/.453 (123 wRC+) overall, and his 25 home runs were the second highest total of his career. As for plate discipline, this is the good stuff (2023 stats):

• Strikeout rate: 14.6% (MLB average: 22.7%)
• Walk rate: 10.0% (MLB average: 8.6%)
• Chase rate: 26.2% (MLB average: 28.8%)
• Swinging strike rate: 9.0% (MLB average: 11.2%)
• Pitches per plate appearance: 3.95 (MLB average: 3.91)

Gleyber will play the entire 2024 season at age 27. He took his plate discipline to another level last year and he’s rediscovered his power stroke since his nine-homer season in 2021. All signs point to a talented player who is entering his prime and about to play his best baseball. Add in the fact this is his contract year, and Torres might have a little extra motivation as well. Conditions are ripe for a big 2024.

The logic behind hitting Torres leadoff is simple: Gleyber is the Yankees’ third best hitter (at least until Rizzo shows he’s back), so put him atop the lineup and get him, Soto, and Judge to the plate as much as possible. Make sure all three hit in the very first inning. Torres gets on base, can put a ball in the seats, and he’s faster than LeMahieu and Rizzo (yeah, he makes dumb baserunning mistakes, but so do the other two).

And if Rizzo bounces back, that’s great! Torres/Soto/Judge/Rizzo in that order gives you a very nice right/left/right/left mix atop the lineup, and it puts Rizzo in position to drive in runs, which is the best use of his skills. Torres is pretty good at driving in runs too, though I wouldn’t want to hit him too low in the lineup. I’d rather Gleyber hit first than fifth. Getting him one extra at-bat in the ninth inning could be a game-changer.

The reason not to hit Torres leadoff is to lengthen the lineup. Rather than stacking their best hitters right at the top, the Yankees could spread them out a bit, and create a more dangerous middle third. Gleyber has shown he’s comfortable at the plate in big spots and I reckon big spots are going to find whoever hits behind Soto and Judge. I’d feel good about Torres hitting behind those two when pitchers avoid them.

Alex Verdugo

Seventy-nine times last season Verdugo hit leadoff for the Red Sox, and it was far and away his most time atop the lineup. He hit leadoff 33 times from 2020-22 (all in 2020). I would have guessed it was a lot more. I’m surprised Verdugo didn’t hit leadoff a single time in 2021 or 2022. Anyway, Verdugo was at his best in the leadoff spot last season::

• Batting leadoff: .280/.331/.461 (110 wRC+) with 13.1 K% and 6.3 BB%
• Batting everywhere else: .238/.314/.357 (79 wRC+) with 19.1 K% and 9.3 BB%

There is some selection bias there, right? When Verdugo was playing well, the Red Sox put him at the top of the lineup, and when he wasn’t, he hit further down. Still, it’s a role he has experience in, and Verdugo has a leadoff hitter’s skill set in his lefty contact bat and plate discipline (22.4% chases in 2023), even if his walk rate is league average more than elite. You wouldn’t be “wasting” homers in the leadoff spot either.

“Adding someone like Verdugo, who’s been a great leadoff hitter for the Red Sox for so long, having him in the mix where you can get DJ a day off and you can mix him up there at the leadoff spot,” Judge said on a recent podcast appearance (per Bryan Hoch). “Then you can maybe slide me into the two-hole, Soto three. But I’ve been telling Boonie since 2021 that I want to hit third.”

The downside is Verdugo is not especially quick or savvy on the bases (20-for-30 stealing bases in his career), which makes him exactly like the other three leadoff candidates in this post. Also, Verdugo is a pretty average-ish hitter overall. He’s authored a .272/.326/.413 (100 wRC+) line in over 1,200 plate appearances the last two seasons. Is that really who you want hitting in front of Soto and Judge? Is that who you want getting the most at-bats on the team?

Then again, Verdugo will turn 28 in May, so he’s right smack in the prime of his career like Torres, and you could argue he’ll get better pitches to hit in front of Soto and Judge and thus be a better hitter. If you want to use Gleyber’s and Rizzo’s power lower in the lineup, and want someone with more speed than LeMahieu to hit leadoff without sacrificing contact or chase rate, then Verdugo’s your guy.

Platoon

You don’t have to pick one leadoff hitter and stick with him, right? The Yankees used 10 different leadoff hitters last season. It was nine in 2022. It’s nice to have a set lineup and leadoff guy – Marcus Semien hit leadoff in all 162 games for the World Series champion Rangers last year – but if you don’t have that, then you have to improvise, and go with works best given your roster.

Conveniently, we have two right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters in this post. Here are their 2023 numbers against pitchers of the opposite hand:

LeMahieu vs. LHP: .255/.357/.404 (116 wRC+) with 22.3 K% and 13.4 BB%
Torres vs. LHP: .278/.375/.546 (153 wRC+) with 15.6 K% and 13.3 BB%

Rizzo vs. RHP: .220/.308/.366 (90 wRC+) with 25.7 K% and 8.1 BB%
Verdugo vs. RHP: .279/.329/.464 (109 wRC+) with 15.0 K% and 6.8 BB%

Rizzo hit .273/.341/.491 (130 wRC+) against righties before colliding with Tatis, so those two months he played with a danged concussion really hurt his numbers. Even then, one year of platoon splits is overly simplistic, but for our purposes, they’ll work. The Yankees haven’t even played a spring game yet. We don’t have to get too deep in the lineup weeds in February.

When there’s a lefty starter on the mound, the Yankees have two really good leadoff options in Torres and LeMahieu. Against righties, their options aren’t as good unless they do go ahead and hit Rizzo in front of Judge and Soto. Verdugo was better than average against righties last year moreso for his power than his on-base ability. OBP reigns supreme in the leadoff spot, but a little SLG is good too.

Point is, the Yankees don’t have to pick one leadoff guy and stick with him. They can mix and match depending on the opposing starter (and pitching staff overall), though that’s not as effective as it used to be because fewer starters get to go through the lineup a third time. LeMahieu/Torres might only get two at-bats against that lefty starter, not four. Still, a leadoff platoon is certainly worth considering.

* * *

Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want LeMahieu to be the leadoff hitter against righties and lefties. They want to put LeMahieu atop the lineup and not have to think about making changes based on matchups or performance. That’s the best case scenario. LeMahieu carries his 2023 second half performance into 2024 and the leadoff spot is set. LeMahieu/Soto/Judge in that order every game.

How realistic is that? I dunno. We’ll find out in a few months. For now, let’s vote on the leadoff spot. Who do you think should hit leadoff to begin 2024? Not who do you think the Yankees will hit leadoff in 2024, who do you want hitting leadoff this season?