December 14th, 2023: Yamamoto, Verdugo, Mailbag

The Yankees introduced Juan Soto with a Zoom call earlier this week (no press conference? weird) and boy, he certainly went to the Scott Boras school of media training. Soto answered everything by saying he’s excited and wants to win, and he expertly brushed aside contract questions. “About any contract stuff, they know where to call and who to talk to,” Soto said. You can watch the Zoom call here. Let’s now get to today’s post. I’m running this Thursday afternoon rather than Friday morning just in case Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision comes later tonight or even overnight. I don’t want to have to rewrite anything.

1. The latest on Yamamoto. Let me start by saying that, when I wrote the post, it didn’t occur to me that seeing the “Poll: Plan B behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto” headline in your inbox first thing in the morning could make it seem like Yamamoto signed elsewhere overnight. My bad, folks. Didn’t mean to give you an early morning heart attack. Anyway, sign Jordan Montgomery is the preferred Plan B among RAB’s readership. Trade for a rental starter got my vote.

Otherwise, there’s not much to update with Yamamoto. He met with the Yankees on Monday and has continued his in-person meetings this week. Because he was already in Los Angeles holding these meetings at his agent’s office, Yamamoto met with the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. They did a scoreboard mock up and everything (Photo via Juan Barajas):

Well that doesn't seem very fair, does it? Fair ain’t got nothing to do with it though. Yamamoto is free to conduct his, ahem, free agency however he wants. If that means visiting Dodger Stadium but not Yankee Stadium, then what can you do? Fabian Ardaya (subs. req’d) says Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani were all there to meet with Yamamoto. Groan.

For what it’s worth, Bob Nightengale says the Yankees are the favorites to sign Yamamoto. That is usually the Kiss of Death given Bob’s track record, though he’s been on point this offseason. He shot down all the Ohtani/Blue Jays/flight tracker stuff, insisted the Yankees would get Juan Soto when others wavered, etc. Fingers crossed Bob’s hot streak continues with Yamamoto.

It feels like we’re approaching the endgame now. That doesn’t mean a decision is imminent, but Yamamoto has to be getting close to wrapping up his in-person meetings, and unless he decides to visit other cities and stadiums, there’s not much left to do other than haggle over money. One way or the other, I hope Yamamoto makes his decision soon so the Yankees can see where they stand, and continue on with the rest of their offseason.

2. What the Yankees are getting in Verdugo. At the Winter Meetings last week, the Yankees remade their outfield, most notably landing Juan Soto in a seven-player trade with the Padres. Soto was their second outfield addition, chronologically. One day earlier they picked up Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox (!), sending three pitching prospects to Boston in the swap.

“I’m really excited about it. He’s actually been a guy that we’ve talked about now for a while, and we were finally able to get something done there,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch at the Winter Meetings. “He’s been a guy that’s done some things against us. He’s a really good two-way player. Defends well in the corners and obviously really good bat-to-ball, left-handed. I feel like there’s an edge he plays the game with, so I’m excited about this.”

There was some thought the Yankees would flip Verdugo to the Padres in the Soto trade, though that never made much sense with San Diego shedding payroll. Verdugo, who won’t turn 28 until next May, is expected to be the everyday left fielder next season. Like Soto, he’s a rental, so his future in pinstripes beyond 2024 is uncertain. We can worry about the long-term another time.

Through no fault of his own, Verdugo was under the microscope in Boston because he was the central piece in the Mookie Betts trade. He had a great Red Sox debut during the shortened 2020 pandemic season (.308/.367/.478 and 125 wRC+), but he’s gradually gotten a little worse each year since, and bottomed out at .263/.324/.421 (98 wRC+) in 2023.

What exactly are the Yankees getting in Verdugo? Well, the Red Sox didn’t really know what they were getting from Verdugo from one year to the next, and sometimes even from one week to the next, so it’s hard to say. Best we can do is dig into his game and see what’s what, and hope the Yankees get the best version of Verdugo this year. Let’s break him down.

Needed contact skills

There is one thing we know for certain: Verdugo is an elite bat-to-ball guy. Among the 105 players with at 1,000 plate appearances the last two seasons, Verdugo’s 5.9% swinging strike rate is the ninth lowest – he’s tied with DJ LeMahieu (5.9%) and one spot ahead of Soto (6.2%) – and his 93.3% in-zone contact rate is fifth highest. He is essentially tied with Betts (93.4%).

The Yankees became contact-challenged this past season, especially in the second half, and although Verdugo won’t correct that all on his own, he’ll certainly help. Look at his 2023 contact heat map. This dude can get the bat on just about any pitch in any location:

One thing Isiah Kiner-Falefa taught us is making a lot of contact and being a good hitter are not necessarily the same thing. Just about everything about Verdugo’s contact quality is average. His overall average exit velocity and hard-hit rates, his top end exit velocities, etc. He doesn’t stand out as a hit the ball hard guy, This isn’t a LeMahieuian lots of hard contact profile.

The good news is the hard contact Verdugo does make is not confined to one part of the strike zone. Some guys have a down and in wheelhouse, or are at their best when they can extend their arms on a pitch on the outer half. Not Verdugo. Here are the pitch locations of his batted balls at 95+ mph in 2023. They are all over the strike zone:

This isn’t the clearest graphic but there are line drives up and down, in and out. The ground balls are concentrated mostly on the outer half, which is usually how it goes. Verdugo can get a little long with his swing at times and roll over on a pitch he should probably try to punch the other way. That, of course, is easier said than done. Pitchers can be tricky like that.

The takeaway here is the yellow dots. It’s line drives in all parts of the zone. Well, except up and in, and it’s pretty tough to square up pitches in on your hands (ask any lefty who faced Mariano Rivera). Verdugo uses the middle of the field a tick more than the average lefty hitter and the pull side slightly less. The spray chart of his base hits tells a story. Here are Verdugo’s 2023 hit locations:

Yankee Stadium is the background though Verdugo’s home stadium was Fenway Park, and it shows. It’s singles to all fields, doubles off the Green Monster to the opposite field, and homers pulled to right field. Verdugo will definitely still be able to pull the ball to right for home runs in the Bronx. But pepper the 37-foot wall for doubles the other way? Absolutely not.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora hounds his lefties about using left field and Verdugo bought in as much as anyone the last few years. Can he adjust his approach to better fit Yankee Stadium? I’m not saying Verdugo should begin selling out to pull the ball, but lifting fly balls to left field is not the best approach in the Bronx. Those cans of corn will be cans of corn, not extra-base hits.

Verdugo’s ability to get the bat on the ball and generate reasonably hard contact anywhere in the strike zone is an obvious plus. He can handle velocity and adjust on the fly to breaking stuff, and he doesn’t chase out of the zone (Verdugo could stand to swing a bit more at pitches in the zone though). The core offensive skills are very good. You can see why baseball people like him.

The question is can Verdugo and the Yankees deprogram the Fenway Park approach out of him? Focus more on low line drives to the opposite field than fly balls? Barring a miracle, Verdugo will hit fewer doubles next season, maybe even significantly fewer. Blame the ballpark. The solution may be settling for singles to left instead of doubles, and making up for it with more short porch homers to right. He could wind up with a lower batting average but more production overall.

What’s the deal with his defense?

Verdugo was a Gold Glove finalist in 2023! In right field, a position he will not play for the Yankees because they have Soto. And if they didn’t have Soto, Verdugo still wouldn’t play right because the Yankees have Aaron Judge too. Boone and Brian Cashman strongly indicated the plan is to put Verdugo in left, Judge in center, and Soto in right. That’s the best alignment given the available personnel.

It wasn’t until this past season that the Red Sox moved Verdugo to right field full-time. He played primarily left field from 2021-22. The Red Sox moved him to right, which is a difficult position to play in Fenway Park, so the defensively deficient Masataka Yoshida could hide in tiny left field. Now Verdugo is moving back to left field so the Yankees can hit the defensively deficient Soto in tiny right field.

The career numbers on Verdugo’s left field play are unhelpful: +21 DRS (great!) but also +0 OAA (uh?). Which is it? For outfielders, OAA is more stable year-to-year than DRS (it’s the opposite for infielders), which suggest Verdugo is closer to average in left than a Gold Glover. Here are a few more 2021-22 (Verdugo’s two full years as a full-time left fielder) defensive numbers:

All balls in play
Verdugo’s Statcast success rate: 85%
Verdugo’s Statcast estimated success rate: 86%

Fly balls and line drives only
Verdugo in LF: .507 AVG and .426 xAVG (+.081)
MLB average in LF: .455 AVG and .409 xAVG (+.046)
Fenway Park average in LF: .559 AVG and .426 xAVG (+.133)

Statcast’s success rate, which is based on how often similar batted balls are turned into outs, says Verdugo was more or less average in left from 2021-22. AVG and xAVG on fly balls to left field in Fenway Park are wonky because of the Green Monster. Look at the difference between AVG and xAVG! It’s enormous. Again, pop ups to left field turn into doubles in Boston.

With Verdugo in left field, fly balls and line drives turned into hits more often than expected based on exit velocity and launch angle, but not nearly as much as in Fenway Park in general. The gap between Verdugo’s defensive AVG and xAVG is a Green Monster thing more than a Verdugo thing. It’s really tough to quantify left field defense in Boston. Has always been.

OAA and Statcast’s success rate indicate Verdugo is an average-ish left fielder. The eye test mostly agrees, though Verdugo has a little Gleyber Torres in him in that he’ll occasionally make a careless and generally boneheaded mistake. Do that at second base, and the runner reaches first. Do it in the outfield, and those mistakes often lead to extra bases.

Left field in Yankee Stadium is large and a difficult place to play, especially during the day when the sun peeks out over the upper deck. My guess is Verdugo will run the gamut in 2024. Some sensation plays, some dopey plays, and it'll all work out to average or a tick above. He’s young and has the athleticism for left. Physical ability isn't an issue. It’s just a matter of playing it well.

The headaches

Read the Boston area coverage of the trade and one thing is clear: Cora and the Red Sox are happy to be rid of Verdugo. He’s been a problem child over the years, most notably showing up late to the ballpark. Cora eventually benched Verdugo in August and made it pretty clear it was a situation where one guy was off doing his own thing and the team wasn’t happy about it.

“Today, we took a step back as a team. We have to make sure everybody is available every single day here for us to get to wherever we've got to go. That wasn't the case,” Cora told Chris Cotillo when Verdugo was benched. “As a manager, I've got to take charge of that. I decided he wasn't gonna play. We have to be available. Everybody has to be available. For us to do this, we have to be available. From coaches to players to analysts to the front office, everybody has to be available every single day here. That's the bottom line. Today, one guy wasn't available."

Do you know how many times you have to show up late to get benched? It doesn’t happen with the first offense. The first time it happens, you’ll get a talking to from the manager or a coach. The next time your teammates will get on your case, then people in the front office. Eventually, when it’s clear the message isn’t getting through, you sit and it becomes public. Verdugo's benching didn’t come out of nowhere. It was earned over a long period of time.

Boone downplayed any makeup concerns – “We hear those things from across the way. I’m not overly concerned about that,” Boone told Hoch – but they exist and they have existed since Verdugo's days as a prospect with the Dodgers. Here’s Baseball America (subs. req’d):

• 2017: “Some scouts are concerned with his inconsistent motor, a complaint dating back to his prep days.”
• 2018: “Criticisms of his effort level and maturity have plagued him since his amateur days and were again prevalent in 2017.”
• 2019: “Verdugo stays dialed in at the plate, but an indifferent attitude affects the rest of his game ... frustrating teammates and coaches alike.”

A scout told Randy Miller that Clayton Kershaw had Verdugo removed from the clubhouse one year, when Verdugo traveled with the Dodgers as an extra player in the postseason. I’m not sure how true that is, but clearly, Verdugo has not been a popular teammate, and that may be putting it lightly. The Yankees are certainly aware of that, yet they traded for him anyway. They seem to think Boone, Judge, Anthony Rizzo, et al will keep Verdugo in line.

The best case scenario is Verdugo sees the trade to the Yankees as a fresh start, has a chip on his shoulder after being traded by a division rival, and realizes he’s a year away from a big free agent payday if he cuts the crap and plays hard and being a good teammate. It’s a one-year rental and perhaps everything will come together in such a way that the Yankees get a motivated Verdugo, and the best possible version of him in 2024. That would be ideal.

There’s risk here and it goes beyond the on-field “all those doubles to left might be fly outs now” way. Verdugo can be a headache, it is known and not just speculation, and the Yankees are taking on that headache in hopes of getting a good ballplayer. Not everyone needs to be a boy scout, very few players are really, but Verdugo’s a habitual line-stepper. Odds are there will be at least one headache moment in 2024. That’s just how it goes with him.

(Verdugo became a father in 2021 and fatherhood has a way of maturing people, though it doesn't seemed to have happened here. At least not in the baseball sense.)

The total package

Verdugo is a significant upgrade in left field and that has more to do with how atrocious the left field situation was this past season – .220/.299/.368 (87 wRC+) and -1.6 WAR – than Verdugo being a stud ballplayer. He’s been an average corner outfielder the last three years, one who has stagnated if not gotten worse despite being at an age when he should be getting better.

His bat-to-ball ability is truly elite. Among the best in the sport. His approach – lay into a pitch and pull it when you can, otherwise lift fly balls to left field – is tailor-made for Fenway Park and not so much Yankee Stadium, because the strength of each ballpark is very different. An adjustment will have to be made for Verdugo to get the most out of offensive skills in the Bronx.

There’s not much baserunning value here (Verdugo doesn’t steal bases and isn’t particularly speedy) and chances are his left field glovework will be average rather than something that stands out (in a good way). As for the clubhouse stuff, who really knows. The track record is not good, but playing well can cure a lot of ills. Verdugo has a chance to be a very good player. That has been the case basically his entire career, and now the Yankees will try to get the most out of him.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Giants finally landed a big time free agent. They agreed to a six-year, $113M contract with Jung-Hoo Lee earlier this week. That is 1.5-2 times as much as most folks expected him to receive, which isn’t to say they’re right and the Giants are wrong. Just that the Giants have had trouble landing premium free agents over the years and it seems like they paid a premium here. Lee has a chance to be a good and fun player, though I can’t say I’m upset the Yankees missed out at that price … And finally, something new has arrived to break up the monotony of Spring Training. MLB has announced a new all-prospects showcase. They’re calling it Spring Breakout. All 30 clubs will put together a team of 20-25 minor leaguers, and they’ll play a seven-inning game against some other team’s minor leaguers. The Yankees’ Spring Breakout game is scheduled for Saturday, March 16th, at home against the Blue Jays in Tampa. The regular Grapefruit League game is at 1pm ET and the Spring Breakout game will follow at 4pmET, so it's a Spring Training doubleheader (yay?). Spring Breakout won’t just be players in big league camp. It’ll also feature kids down in minor league camp like, say, Roderick Arias and George Lombard Jr., who we otherwise wouldn’t see next spring because teenagers usually don't find themselves in big league camp. Maybe this catches on and becomes an annual thing, maybe it’ll be boring. Either way, I applaud MLB for trying, and I look forward to the Spring Breakout game livening up mid March.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

I have received A LOT of mailbag questions since last week. Please don’t take it personally if I didn’t pick yours. There’s just no way I could get to even half of them in one week. Also, please stop asking me to explain how the math works on Shohei Ohtani’s deferrals. That’s way above my pay grade. All I know is it’s spelled out in the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Jon asks: Ohtani just signed for the rough equivalent of Judge + Cole. And I get it - he hits like Judge and pitches like Cole. You get that out of one roster spot. With that said, if Judge hurts a toe, it doesn't mean Cole can't pitch - but if Ohtani hurts his toe or something else like that (I know he's a DH) I'd think he couldn't hit or pitch. So - you can either have Ohtani or Judge/Cole, same money. What do you choose?

Fun question! We’ve already seen Shohei Ohtani get hurt as a pitcher but continue playing as a hitter, though there are plenty of injuries that would take him out of action entirely (somehow a torn elbow ligament isn’t one of them). Losing your top hitter and your top pitcher to one injury is a double whammy, and the sort of thing that can really hurt your postseason odds.

I’ve gone back and forth on this question. The upside is Ohtani is two great players rolled into one, and you can fill that extra roster spot with anything, including another star. Stars are in short supply, but even something like a +3 WAR player puts you ahead of the game. The downside, as Jon said, is you have two eggs in one basket. One injury and you lose two players.

Do you prefer maximizing your upside with Ohtani and the extra roster spot, or reducing your risk by ensuring one injury doesn’t cost you two players? I don’t think there’s a right answer here. There’s an argument to be made for both approaches. I’d go with the former. Give me Ohtani and the extra roster spot, and I’ll raise my team’s ceiling that way. If Ohtani or Gerrit Cole or Aaron Judge gets hurt, we’re screwed anyway. I’d focus on the upside, not the downside.

Caleb asks: Regular lineup should be Soto leading off with Judge batting second, right?

Yeah. Let’s not overthink it. Juan Soto is the best on-base hitter in the game and Aaron Judge is the best power hitter in the game, so bat Soto first and Judge second, and get them to the plate as many times as possible. Will the Yankees actually do that? Maybe! We’ve seen Judge hit leadoff for long stretches of time. I bet we see this lineup in 2024 initially:

1. 3B DJ LeMahieu, RHB
2. RF Juan Soto, LHB
3. CF Aaron Judge, RHB
4. 1B Anthony Rizzo, LHB
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton, RHB
6. LF Alex Verdugo, LHB
7. 2B Gleyber Torres, RHB
8. C Austin Wells, LHB
9. SS Anthony Volpe, RHB

Torres and Stanton should definitely be flipped, but I’ll need to see the Yankees hit Stanton seventh to believe it. Otherwise you’ve got alternating righties and lefties all the way through (other than the 9-1 spots when the lineup turns over), and Aaron Boone has shown he likes to do that whenever possible. Verdugo allows them to lengthen the lineup, so to speak.

Soto before Judge is likely better than Judge before Soto, but either will work. They’ll be great no matter what. And I bet we see both arrangements during the season. At some point the Yankees will struggle offensively for a week, that’s just baseball, and it feels like one of the first things Boone will do to spark the offense is flip Soto and Judge. That feels very Boone-y, no?

Gregg asks: I love the Soto trade but am I the only one who sees a massive extension to Soto as a big mistake? His defense and base-running are not going to get any better as he ages. A 12-15 year contract at a massive amount seems like it could go south in a hurry.

To me, the obvious comp is Miguel Cabrera. A generational hitter who was a poor defender and didn’t have a clear position. The Marlins and then the Tigers let Cabrera rake and win MVPs, and figured out the defense as they went. Cabrera’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, it’s a lofty comp, but Juan Soto has earned that comparison.

• Soto career: .284/.412/.524 (154 wRC+) and +28.6 WAR (3,375 PA)
• Cabrera thru age 24: .313/.388/.542 (139 wRC+) and +18.3 WAR (3,072 PA)

Soto’s bat is too special to let the defense (and baserunning) scare me away. You can limit the defensive downside by putting Soto in small right field at Yankee Stadium, moving him to first base down the line, or even making him a full-time DH. Players who hit like Soto tend to become all-time greats, not merely All-Stars, so you do whatever you have to do to make it work.

In fact, I’ll even go so far as to say that if the Yankees land Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they should let Gerrit Cole walk when he uses his opt out next offseason, and reinvest that money in Soto. Walk away from Cole’s age 34-38 seasons and secure Soto’s age 26+ seasons instead. This only works if the Yankees land Yamamoto as a “replacement” ace, and of course the Yankees should just pay what it takes to keep Cole and re-sign Soto, but if it’s one or the other come next winter, give me Soto’s mid-to-late 20s over Cole’s mid-to-late 30s.

James asks: Over or hold Soto playing one season with the Yankees?

Based on nothing but my gut, I’ll say over. I think the Yankees get Juan Soto to sign a long-term contract next offseason. If it does wind up being just one year, Soto could go down as the greatest one-year Yankee ever. By WAR, here are the best players to spend only one full season with the Yankees (no trade deadline rentals, I’m talking one full season):

1. OF Bobby Bonds: +5.4 WAR in 1975
2. RHP Jack McDowell: +4.0 WAR in 1995
3. DH Jack Clark: +2.8 WAR in 1988
4. RHP Jon Lieber: +2.7 WAR in 2004
4. 3B/DH Eric Soderholm: +1.8 WAR in 1980

Anthony Volpe is technically third on that list with +3.3 WAR in 2023, though he’ll obviously spend more than one season with the Yankees. Right now, on Dec. 14th, 2023, I think the Yankees will re-sign Soto next offseason. I’m not saying it’ll be easy. He’ll meet with other teams and make us sweat and all that, but I think a deal gets done. I’m taking the over on one year of Soto.

Jonathan asks: I know I'm getting ahead of myself but would you take vintage Tanaka (the first 3 years) right now for Yamamoto? I know he can and potentially will be a legit #1 but Tanaka at his best was a 4-5 WAR pitcher who you maybe don't want as your #1 on a world series contender but is still a borderline #1 and an elite #2 starter. I was comfortable with Tanaka as a #2 against anyone's #2.

Absolutely I would take that. Masahiro Tanaka’s first three years with the Yankees was a 3.12 ERA (131 ERA+) and a 3.53 FIP, and 6.5 innings per start. Tanaka was one of the 20 or so best pitchers in the game those three seasons. He was league average his last four seasons with the Yankees (4.27 ERA, 103 ERA+, 4.23 FIP), but league average isn’t bad. It’s just … average.

Let’s be real here, a 10-year contract for a starting pitcher is asking for trouble. You hope you get a few elite years up front, some good years in the middle, and you live with the bad years at the end because that’s what it took to sign him and get those elite years up front. With any luck, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will age as gracefully as, say, Max Scherzer, but Scherzer is an outlier.

Getting 2014-16 Tanaka from 2024-26 Yamamoto would be a great outcome. What happens after that? Who knows. We can barely predict what will happen three months from now. Three years is an eternity in baseball years. Tanaka was awesome and Yamamoto being Tanaka 2.0 would be a-okay with me, even though his contract will likely be twice as large, financially.

Bob asks: Now that the Yankees have Soto it is time to make sure they have the pitching to go the distance. Regardless of Yamamoto they will need another arm. What are your thoughts on Michael Lorenzen? He has been in a rotation, spot started and relieved and been healthy?

The Tigers did nice work with Lorenzen in 2013. They signed to a one-year deal worth $8.5M, got 105.2 innings with a 3.58 ERA (3.86 FIP)*, then sent him to the Phillies for a quality prospect (Hao-Yu Lee) at the deadline. Lorenzen threw a no-hitter in his second start with Philadelphia, but otherwise had a 5.51 ERA (5.81 FIP) in 47.1 innings after the trade and finished the year in the bullpen.

* Lorenzen was Detroit’s token All-Star and he joked he had no business being there.

Lorenzen turns 31 next month and his fade down the stretch may have been fatigue-related. He threw 153 innings all together, way up from the 97.2 innings he threw in 2023. It was the first time he cleared 100 innings since his rookie year in 2015. Lorenzen doesn’t do anything especially well (strikeouts, grounders, limit hard contact, etc.) but he’s not awful at anything either.

Although he spent much of his career as a reliever, Lorenzen has the stuff to start, including four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, changeup) and enough strike-throwing ability to get through 5-6 innings with a reasonable pitch count. I see him as a plug-and-play No. 4-5 starter, someone who can help you navigate the 162-game season but probably shouldn’t see the mound in October.

Lorenzen signed one-year contracts worth $7M and $8.5M the last two offseasons and if the Yankees can get him on similar terms to stabilize the back of the rotation, go for it. He might be able to get 2-3 years in this free agent market though, and I’d rather not start tying up 2025 roster spots on back of the rotation starters. I’d rather overpay on a one-year deal than go two years.

The Yankees usually don’t go the safe route. They tend to roll the dice on players with upside and will accept age and/or injury risk to do so. That leads me to believe they would bring back Frankie Montas on a one-year deal before going with Lorenzen. I think Lorenzen’s fine as long as he’s not the rotation addition this offseason. He’s a competent every fifth day innings dude who also has bullpen experience, if you need him in that role at some point.

Aaron asks: Do you see Mitch Garver as a worthwhile investment for part-time catcher duties and 1B/DH insurance? I know an oft-injured RHB isn't the "meta" these days but he hits, walks (90th percentile), and the Yankees have finally diversified their lineup with recent moves for LHBs.

I don’t think it’s realistic. Garver’s coming off a .270/.370/.500 (138 wRC+) line with 19 homers in 344 plate appearances. That should land him an everyday job and a multi-year contract with an eight-figure annual salary or close to it. Unless the Yankees cut bait on Giancarlo Stanton, they really have nowhere to put Garver. He would be an extremely overqualified bench bat.

As a right-handed hitter with a low ground ball rate (30.4%) and a high pull rate (49.1%), Garver would be perfect for the Red Sox and Fenway Park. It seems like they’re going to put Masataka Yoshida at DH though, and Garver is only a part-time catcher at this point because of his injury history, so that union may not happen. If Garver’s willing to join the Yankees as a bench guy who gets at-bats at first base and DH against lefties (and whenever Stanton gets hurt), I’m all for it. Doesn’t seem realistic though. Garver should find a much larger role (and more money) elsewhere.

Alex asks: With the new look outfield in place and the focus turned to pitching, I can't imagine the Yankees spending too much more money on position players (as much as I would like more help at 3B). At this point, what is the state of the bench? The four names that jump out to me are:

- Jose Trevino, C
- Trent Grisham, OF
- Oswaldo Cabrera, UTIL
- Oswald Peraza, INF

What stands out to me is a lack of a 1B, though DJLM can move over there, and the fact that riding the bench is not the best for the development of either Oswald(o) at this point. Do you see another move coming?

Grisham, Trevino, and Peraza (who is out of options) are locked into bench spots. Cabrera’s skill set is ideal for the last spot. He can play anywhere, he switch-hits, and he can put a mistake in the seats on occasion. Cabrera was so bad this year though, and he is only 24. My preference would be to let him play everyday in Triple-A and hopefully get him back to where he was in 2022.

Estevan Florial (redundant with Grisham), Jorbit Vivas (has barely played in Triple-A), Everson Pereira (needs more Triple-A time), and Oscar Gonzalez are the only other 40-man roster bench candidates, and none are a great fit. So yeah, I think the Yankees will make another move for a bench guy, though it might not happen until very late in the offseason like Marwin Gonzalez.

Looking over the list of free agents, the most appealing name is … Isiah Kiner-Falefa? You can put him just about anywhere and he has speed, which is really all you want from the 26th roster spot. The Yankees have interest in a reunion with Kiner-Falefa, though I imagine he’ll seek more playing time elsewhere. Grisham and Peraza figure to get the most playing time off the bench.

Is Eduardo Escobar a fit? He can still hit lefties and you can put him at first, second, or third, plus he’s a great clubhouse guy. Escobar’s in that “probably has to wait until February for a minor league contract” bucket. Brad Miller? Tony Kemp? Those kinda guys are reasonable targets for the last bench spot, I think. It’ll be hard to convince an everyday caliber player to be a bench guy (though the Yankees sold DJ LeMahieu on it back in the day, so who knows).

Brandon Drury could be of interest with the Angels heading for a down period. The Yankees have a history with Drury, who hit .262/.306/.497 (114 wRC+) with 26 home runs in 2023. He played first, second, and third this past season and has corner outfield experience. The Angels owe him a reasonable $8.5M in 2024 and Drury would give the Yankees another option at third base, albeit an imperfect one as a righty hitter prone to swinging and missing. He could work.

I’d rather not pencil Cabrera into that last bench spot, so going out and getting someone would be my preferred course of action. It’s unlikely that someone would be an impactful player. Most likely it would be a late offseason non-roster guy who has to compete for a job. Clearly though, the bench is an area that can be upgraded, so the Yankees should upgrade it.

Jim asks: Will Judge REALLY be in center every day? Seems suicidal! What are the chances that it’s Grisham most days, with Judge or Soto DH’ing and Stanton sitting? Or is it possible that they’ll flip Grisham or Verdugo?

I won’t go to that extreme, but I don’t love Aaron Judge in center either, mostly because I’m worried about him wearing down during the long season. He’s going to be 32 in April and center field is a young man’s position. Here are the leaders in games played in center field at age 32+ the last three seasons:

1. Kevin Kiermaier: 170 games
2. Adam Duvall: 128
3. Starling Marte: 122
4. Michael A. Taylor: 117
5. Aaron Hicks: 111

Very few players Judge’s age play center field regularly and basically no one his size does it. Judge is an outlier, the rules of other players don’t apply to him, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be a bit worried that full-time center field duty isn’t the smartest idea at this point in his career.

It feels like the Yankees acquired Trent Grisham so they can plug him into the lineup and center field when Giancarlo Stanton gets injured, which you kinda have to expect to happen at some point. So maybe this is a “Judge starts the season in center, then is playing his usual right field with Juan Soto at DH by May” situation. Hopefully Judge in center is only temporary, though it’s hard to see how that would be the case without something else going wrong.

Billy asks: Do you think Stanton has the ability to play 1B? Even just once or twice a week until he's replaced defensively? Or is his lack of agility and athleticism too much to overcome?

I’m sure Giancarlo Stanton could play first base in the sense that if you give him a mitt and tell him to go stand at first base, he can play it. Play it adequately? Play it even part-time? I’m not so sure. Stanton’s very stiff and unathletic these days, reminiscent of late career Alex Rodriguez, and when the Yankees put A-Rod at first base, he looked like he’d never played baseball in his life. And that was A-Rod, the smartest and most instinctual player I’ve ever seen. Giancarlo might do less damage defensively in the outfield than at first base too. The 2023 numbers quick:

• 1B: 39,567 total defensive chances in MLB
• LF: 9,226
• RF: 10,258

First basemen were involved in roughly twice as many plays as the two corner outfield spots combined this season. Add in center field and first basemen were still involved in 25% more plays than outfielders. The way I see it, Stanton is a full-time DH who can play a few innings in the outfield now and then. That’s it. Putting him at first base feels like a recipe for regret.

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