December 8th, 2023: Rule 5 Draft, Mailbag

It has been two days and Juan Soto is still hitless as a Yankee. They gave up Mike King for this guy? Cashman failed. Anyway, during his conference call Thursday, Brian Cashman confirmed the Padres asked for Anthony Volpe and Jasson Domínguez initially, but he wasn’t going to do that. Can’t blame the Padres for asking. Gotta at least try. Here’s what I wrote about the Soto trade and here now is today’s post. Sorry it’s shorter than usual. It’s been a busy week.

1. Rule 5 Draft recap. While we were all obsessively tracking Juan Soto news, the Rule 5 Draft took place Wednesday afternoon. The Yankees did not make a selection, which was both expected and a bit lame only because it would have been something new. I would’ve welcomed a Rule 5 Draft player to pay extra special attention to in Spring Training, just to spice things up. Alas.

The various previews touted this as a weak year for Rule 5 Draft eligibles, and that makes sense because 2020 draftees are now eligible, and there were only five rounds that year. There was a smaller pool of available players. Only 10 picks were made in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft. It’s the fewest picks since 2013 (nine). From 2014-22, there were 15.5 picks on average.

Of course, three of those 10 picks were Yankees. Baseball America notes 32 of the 357 players selected in the Rule 5 Draft this century were Yankees, or 9%. It’s kinda funny to hear every year that the farm system is only middle of the pack, and yet the Yankees always have the trade chips they need and they get raided in the Rule 5 Draft each winter. Bit of a disconnect there.

Anyway, let’s get into the Rule 5 Draft nitty-gritty, and look at who the Yankees lost and who they added in the minor league phase.

Spence, Sauer, Coleman selected

The first two picks of the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft were Yankees. That says something. I’m not entirely sure what, but something. RHP Mitch Spence went to the Athletics with the No. 1 pick, then the Royals made RHP Matt Sauer the No. 2 pick. The Rangers closed out the Major League phase with RHP Carson Coleman. He was the No. 10 pick.

Spence, 25, was a tenth round pick in 2019, and he had a breakout year this season, leading the minors with 163 innings. He had a 4.47 ERA (5.21 FIP) with 21.8% strikeouts, 7.5% walks, and 50.0% ground balls in those 163 innings with Triple-A Scranton. Keep in mind the International League average was a 5.18 ERA thanks to the automated strike zone. Spence was really good. Here’s what I wrote about him in a mailbag answer in August:

Stuff-wise, Spence is Clarke Schmidt lite. It’s all cutters and curveballs and sliders, plus the occasional sinker and changeup. He doesn’t have Schmidt’s ability to spin the ball (few do), but Spence throws strikes and locates well, the curve and slider have above-average whiff rates in Triple-A, and he’s been better against lefties than righties the last two years.

…

Spence was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft last offseason because he lacks the standout pitch data teams crave – the Rule 5 Draft is the “pitchers with big spin or funky angles” draft now – but he does enough to be a viable up-and-down swingman for a contender. Let’s put it this way: teams have trotted out worse pitchers for 30+ innings this season.

MLB.com put Spence at No. 23 on their top 30 A's prospects list and boy, that says a lot more about their system than it does Spence (he wasn’t on their Yankees’ list). It’s a sad situation out there in Oakland. It’s also a great situation for Spence, who is a near lock to stick next season, and is likely to throw 100+ innings. I’m not sure how good those innings will be, but he’ll throw ‘em.

Sauer is a standard 95-and-a-slider type with an injury history. This year threw 68.1 innings with a 3.42 ERA (4.30 FIP) and a 29.5% strikeout rate with Double-A Somerset after missing the start of the season with a forearm strain. Sauer struck out 18 in 10.2 innings as a short reliever in the Arizona Fall League. Maybe that’s what sold Kansas City on him. From Eric Longenhagen:

The Yankees then sent Sauer to the Arizona Fall League, where he mostly sat 93-95 mph and touched 96 from his now due-north arm slot. His most-used secondary pitch is a firm 84-87 mph slider with two-plane bite. Sauer commands this pitch better than his fastball and could stand to throw it more. There’s a tertiary curveball here, too, but in all likelihood, Sauer will shift to Kansas City’s bullpen and work heavily with the fastball/slider combo in a multi-inning relief role … If he could sit 96-plus airing it out an inning at a time, it would probably give him the best chance of sticking on a big league staff for the long haul.

The Yankees selected Sauer in the second round in 2017 and paid him an overslot $2.5M bonus. They took Clarke Schmidt in the first round, paid him a below slot $2.18M bonus because he’d just had Tommy John surgery, and gave the savings to Sauer. Injuries and bouts of wildness held Sauer back over the years. Not sure he’ll stick, but the Royals can give him a nice long look.

As for Coleman, he was the only one of these Rule 5 Draft guys to make my top 30 prospects list before the season. I had him at No. 27 after he struck out 38.3% of the batters he faced in Double-A. Coleman hurt his elbow during his offseason ramp up and needed the internal brace procedure in Spring Training. He didn’t pitch in 2023. Texas took him using 2022 information.

I haven’t seen an update on Coleman’s rehab, though that’s not unusual for non-top prospects. Assuming no setbacks, he should be ready for Spring Training, or soon thereafter. The Rangers can see what Coleman looks like in camp, then use a 30-day rehab window to further evaluate him in the minors. If they like what they see, they can put him on their active roster. If not, they’ll send him back to the Yankees. It’s a stash and evaluate situation.

(If he goes on the injured list, Coleman will need to spend at least 90 days on the active roster to satisfy the Rule 5 Draft roster requirement, otherwise the Rule 5 Draft rules carry over to 2025.)

The 40-man roster was full after the Yankees added Clayton Beeter and Agustin Ramirez for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes on Nov. 17th. Three days later they opened four 40-man spots by trading Jake Bauers and non-tendering Albert Abreu, Anthony Misiewicz, and Lou Trivino. Can’t help but wonder if they would have protected Spence (or Coleman or Sauer) had they known how the next few weeks would play out. They kinda need the Triple-A rotation depth.

Spence is a goner. I can’t fathom things will play out in such a way that he’s so bad the A’s – the A’s – decide he’s no longer worth a roster spot. Sauer and Coleman are more up in the air. Most Rule 5 Draft players get returned, so maybe they will as well. Spence isn’t a star or anything. He’s a competent No. 6 starter/swingman type. The Yankees could use someone like that after parting with Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez to get Soto. What’s done is done though.

Yankees lose four, take two in minor league phase

A total of 63 players were selected in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft. As a reminder, players taken in the minor league phase are gone. There are no roster hoops to jump through. Take a player in the minor league phase and he’s yours to keep, no questions asked. Let’s start with the players the Yankees lost. There are four of them:

• 1B Eric Wagaman (Angels)
• C Mickey Gasper (Red Sox)
• RHP Michael Gomez (Rays)
• 3B Marcos Cabrera (Pirates)

Wagaman was in the system longer than I realized. The 2017 13th rounder hit .320/.382/.500 (142 wRC+) in only 35 Double-A games around injuries this past season. Injuries have limited him to 182 games the last three years. Wagaman has legit pop, though he was never much of a prospect. More of an organizational roster filler type.

Gasper went 6-for-8 with two walks in Spring Training and had a tiny little bit of hype coming out of camp. The 2018 27th rounder started the year in Scranton, got demoted to Somerset, and hit .246/.361/.375 (105 wRC+) with seven homers in 73 games. Not for nothing, but a guy named Mickey Gasper is destined for cult hero status in Boston. Look for him to go 3-for-4 with a walk-off double off the monstah against the Yankees sometime in September.

The 27-year-old Gomez has been a Triple-A bullpen arm the last few years. Knowing the Rays, he’ll give them 30 good innings before needing Tommy John surgery. Cabrera was a sleeper once upon a time, but he just hasn’t hit. This year it was a .212/.288/.354 (77 wRC+) line in 65 High-A games. He just turned 22, so maybe Cabrera still has a breakout coming.

Gomez is more likely to play in the big leagues because Tampa cycles through arms like crazy (they’ve used at least 40 different pitchers each of the last three seasons), but Gasper, who is already 28, is the most interesting player the Yankees lost in the minor league phase as a switch-hitting catcher with contact skills. As for the players the Yankees selected, there are two:

• RHP Gabriel Barbosa (Rockies)
• RHP Kervin Castro (Astros)

I don’t have much on Barbosa, who is not to be confused with the famous soccer player of the same name. The baseball Barbosa is a 21-year-old who had a 5.44 ERA (3.85 FIP) with 19.6% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate in 94.1 Low-A innings this year. Here’s video of him throwing precisely one pitch for Brazil in Pan-Am Games in October. Not much more I can say here.

As for Castro, he’s actually interesting. And a former big leaguer too. He struck out 24 batters in 25.1 innings with the Giants and Cubs the last few years. San Francisco carried him on their 2021 postseason roster as well. The Astros signed Castro to a minor league deal earlier this month but didn’t put him on their 38-man reserve list, so the Yankees selected him.

Still only 24, Kervin works with a mid-90s fastball, a little baby cutter, and a hard downer curveball. I guess you could say he has a good … Kervball.

Here’s video. Castro doesn’t lack stuff. He struck out 19 batters in 15.2 Triple-A innings with the Tigers this past season, though he blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery in June, so he’ll miss most or all of 2024. That explains why the Astros didn’t bother putting him on their reserve list despite having just signed him to a minor league deal.

This seems like a Jimmy Cordero situation. Two years ago the Yankees signed Cordero to a minor league deal after Tommy John surgery. They evaluated him during his rehab in 2022 and liked what they saw enough to put him on their 40-man roster last offseason. Cordero made the Opening Day roster this season and pitched well before his season-ending suspension.

The Yankees can track Castro during his rehab, see what he looks like once he gets back on a mound and faces hitters, then make a 40-man roster decision next offseason. As an added bonus, Kervin has a minor league option remaining, so the Yankees could stash him in Triple-A in 2025. They used the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft on an interesting 2025 bullpen flier. Neat.

(The Reds took LHP T.J. Sikkema from the Royals in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees selected Sikkema with the competitive balance draft pick they received from the Reds in the Sonny Gray trade, then traded him to the Royals in the Andrew Benintendi deal. Now Sikkema is with Cincinnati. Baseball is a flat circle.)

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The Yankees traded an MLB starter (Mike King) and two MLB-ready depth starters (Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez) this week. Losing Spence on top of that is unfortunate, not that those last three guys will make or break your season. They’re inventory arms to help get you through the long 162-game season more than difference-makers (though I like Brito in the bullpen).

Castro was a top 30 prospect with the Giants for a few years and is a nice little bullpen dice roll, though any payoff will be delayed by his Tommy John surgery. All things considered, it was the same old, same old with the Rule 5 Draft this year. The Yankees lost some arms in the Major League phase, took an arm in the minor league phase, and now we’ll see how it all works out.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Glen asks: Am I nuts or did the Yanks give up a better haul to get one year of Soto than the Padres gave up to get 2.5 years? No regrets!!! But it has to be at least a comparable package.

Glen, thank you for reading and for your support, but you’re nuts. The Padres traded five players to get 2.5 years of Soto and rental Josh Bell. These were those players at the time:

• SS CJ Abrams: Top 10-15 prospect in baseball
• OF Robert Hassell: Top 50 prospect in baseball
• LHP MacKenzie Gore: A year removed from being a top 25 prospect in baseball
• OF James Wood: Second round pick the previous summer
• RHP Jarlin Susana: Lower level lottery ticket

Abrams started to figure things out this year (remember his big series in the Bronx?), and while he may never live up to the “best pitching prospect in baseball” hype from a few years ago, Gore just had a 25.9% strikeout rate as part of a league average season as a 24-year-old. He’s a definite rotation piece for Washington and there’s still the potential to get better.

Wood has developed into one of the 15-20 best prospects in the game, albeit one with swing and miss concerns. He hit .262/.353/.520 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers in 129 games between High-A and Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2023. Hassell and Susana have gone backwards since the trade. It happens. You trade for five prospects and are happy if two or three work out.

For comparison, the Yankees gave up two years of a very good starter at best and a lockdown reliever at worst (Mike King), a top 50-75 prospect in the game (Drew Thorpe), two depth arms (Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez), and a backup catcher (Kyle Higashioka). Compare that to what the Padres traded for Soto last year, and it’s not close. Give me the Nationals package.

The trade will haunt the Yankees if King becomes a legit No. 2 starter and Thorpe becomes a Logan Webb type (it’s hard to see how Brito, Vásquez, and Higashioka could ever make the Yankees regret this trade). Can you go as high as 50/50 on those outcomes though? I don’t think so. The Yankees gave up a lot, but be careful not to overrate everyone because you’re familiar with them.

Chris asks: What would your thoughts be on bringing in Shane Bieber? BTV has his trade value fairly low, and he may offer better health/production than Montas at a similar salary. It also doesn’t hurt that the Guardians are affected by the Diamond Sports fiasco.

Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, and Bieber are the top three rental starters on the trade market this offseason and that’s how I’d rank them from best to worst, which isn’t to say I don’t think Bieber is good. Only that I’d prefer Burnes and Glasnow. Bieber had a 3.80 ERA (3.97 FIP) in 128 innings around elbow inflammation this year. There are a few red flags too:

• 20.1% strikeout rate (career low by a lot, was 25.0% in 2022)
• 10.5% swinging strike rate (career low by a lot, was 13.0% in 2022)
• 91.3 mph average fastball (career low)
• 93.5 mph max fastball (career low)
• 9.3% fastball whiff rate (dead last among starters)

Velocity and strikeouts are not everything but they are pretty important, and Bieber has been bleeding them the last few years. It’s a testament to his secondary pitches, his command, and his pitching know-how that Bieber was as good as he was in 2023. The injury risk (he missed a few months with a shoulder issue in 2021 as well) will be baked into the price.

Zack Meisel (subs. req’d) reports payroll will not increase next year. It’ll stay in the same range as 2023 in part because of the Bally Sports thing. The Guardians had an $89.4M payroll this season and Cot’s says they have $89.5M on the books for 2024, arbitration projections included. MLBTR projects $12.2M for Bieber. He’ll be their second highest paid player behind José Ramírez.

Cleveland has five starters for five rotation spots: Bieber, Rookie of the Year runner-up Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie, and Gavin Williams. Their depth beyond that is a little hit or miss, though the Guardians are the best in the game at developing pitchers. Every year they seem to crank out someone who gives them 25 starts with an ERA around 3.00.

Chris Bassitt and Jordan Montgomery (Cardinals to Rangers) feel like good trade benchmarks for Bieber. A full year of Bassitt returned a top 10 team prospect (RHP J.T. Ginn) and a top 20 team prospect (RHP Adam Oller). A half-season of Montgomery (but still one full postseason) fetched two top 10 team prospects (RHP Tekoah Roby and IF Thomas Saggese). Seems about right for Bieber.

Cleveland’s outfield is so, so bad – their outfielders hit .250/.312/.342 (84 wRC+) with 18 (!) home runs in 2023 – that maybe they’ll want Everson Pereira? The Guardians usually don’t go for guys who swing and miss that much, but the Yankees might as well ask. With the pitching market being what it is, the Guardians should get a nice package even for this version of Bieber.

Clearly, Yoshinobu Yamamoto should be the top priority. He’s the guy. Bieber as the No. 2 target instead of, say, Frankie Montas on a one-year prove yourself contract is a-okay with me. I trust his command and pitching smarts, and the Yankees don’t need him to be an ace. As long as the trade package doesn’t further deplete the pitching reserves, I’m in.

Taylor asks: Ryan Divish reported that due to financial constraints, the Mariners are likely to move one of their young pitches (Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo) for a position player with multiple years of control. Any interest here in a swap built around Peraza/Pereira + more? I’d be the most interested in George Kirby, but not sure if that one is on the table or not.

For my money, Kirby is one of the top 10-15 best pitchers in the sport. Probably the best command guy in the game today. He’s outstanding, and if the Mariners put Kirby with five (!) years of control out there, they’ll get a lot more back than what the Yankees could offer. Injured Jasson Domínguez ain’t getting that trade done. Kirby’s not a realistic target. Not sure how the Yankees could get him.

I don’t quite understand what the Mariners are doing this offseason. It seems clear they want to cut strikeouts after trading Jarred Kelenic and Eugenio Suárez, and not risking a qualifying offer on Teoscar Hernández, but that is a lot of offense they let go. A lot of offense from a team that only ranked 9th in wRC+, 11th in homers, and 12th in runs in 2023.

Given each team’s needs, something like Miller or Woo for Oswald Peraza or Everson Pereira makes sense, though my hunch is the Mariners want a more established hitter(s) for their young pitchers. There are rumors they’re talking to the Rays about Randy Arozarena and/or Isaac Paredes. They want guys like that, not Peraza and Pereira, who are unproven at the MLB level.

Miller and Woo are similar as righties with excellent fastballs (94-97 mph with great pitch data) they throw a lot, upwards of 75% of the time, though they may not start long-term because they lack quality secondary pitches and consistent strike-throwing ability. Woo’s platoon splits in his 87.2 big league innings this season are so extreme they're almost comical:

• vs. RHB: .179/.226/.268 (.221 wOBA) with 30.4 K% and 4.2 BB% (191 BF)
• vs. LHB: .283/.389/.539 (.394 wOBA) with 19.4 K% and 12.8 BB% (180 BF)

I’m not sure Peraza and Pereira are what the Mariners are looking for when GM Jerry Dipoto says he wants controllable bats, but to answer the question, sure, I’d have interest in a trade involving them that brings Miller or Woo to the Bronx. Peraza and Pereira don’t have anywhere obvious to play right now. Using them to restock the pitching cupboard works for me.

(I thought about Alex Verdugo for a Mariners arm(s), though Dipoto said he wants guys with multiple years of control, and I’m guessing the Red Sox already tried to give them Verdugo anyway.)

Sam asks: Now that the Yankees have locked up Soto, we can start daydreaming about potential lineups. What I'm interested in is what an ideal Stanton-less lineup looks like. As it is "part of his game" we can safely assume Stanton will miss some time. While I'm sure the Yankees would rotate and look at starters, which lineup is preferable to you:

Soto DH in at DH, creating an OF of Verdugo-Grisham-Judge, with Wells catching.

Wells at DH, creating an OF of Verdugo-Judge-Soto, with Trevy catching.

Option 1 gives you the better OF defense, Option 2 gives you the better defense at Catcher and a pretty lousy OF defense. Which setup is preferable to you?

I’d go Option 1. Give me the better offense overall. This boils down to Trent Grisham vs. Jose Trevino. Both are top of the line defenders. Among the very best at their positions. Grisham’s offense comes from walks and the occasional homer. Trevino’s offense comes from contact and spraying the ball around. Both are likely to drive us mad at the plate, but I’ll take my chances with Grisham, who has been the better hitter the last few years.

I am more willing to accept non-elite catcher defense than a lot of people it seems, which isn’t to say I’m right and they’re wrong, just that I’m willing to accept it. I would prefer Wells behind the plate and giving me offense there, and Grisham’s bat over Trevino’s. Like Sam said though, it doesn’t have to be one or the other. The Yankees can and will use both alignments during the season (it feels like they added Grisham specifically so they could play him when Giancarlo Stanton gets hurt, no?).

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)