November 3rd, 2023: Germán, World Series, Soto, Mailbag

The 2023 MLB season is over and the 2023-24 offseason has arrived. Here’s the offseason calendar and what each date means for the Yankees, in case you missed it. I can firm up some dates now that the World Series is over and the offseason has begun. Here’s what’s coming:

• Tuesday, Nov. 7th: Jung-Hoo Lee free agent profile
• Friday, Nov. 10th: Yoshinobu Yamamoto free agent profile
• Monday, Nov. 13th: Offseason Plan

Lee before Yamamoto only because Yamamoto’s team is still playing. The Orix Buffaloes are in the Japan Series and I figure I might as well wait until his season is over. The Offseason Plan is gonna be a monster. I’m at 4,400 words and I’d estimate I’m 30% done? I need to work on being more succinct. Posts between now and Nov. 13th might be shorter than usual because I still have a lot of Offseason Plan work ahead of me. But, I’m committing to a date now, so look for it the Monday after next. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Germán, five others outrighted. The Yankees are moving on from Domingo Germán. Germán was among the six players the Yankees put on outright waivers on Thursday, according to Joel Sherman. The others: Matt Bowman, Franchy Cordero, Jimmy Cordero, Billy McKinney, and Ryan Weber. They all can (and will) elect free agency once they clear waivers.

Germán, 31, threw 108.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA (4.65 FIP) this season. He also threw the 24th perfect game in baseball history on June 28th. Germán served a 10-game foreign substance suspension in May and left the Yankees in July to get treatment for alcohol abuse. That came after a clubhouse tirade in which he reportedly smashed a television and flipped over a couch.

Originally acquired from the Marlins in the Nathan Eovaldi/Martín Prado trade in Dec. 2014, Germán pitched to a 4.41 ERA (4.50 FIP) in 522.1 innings across parts of six seasons with the Yankees. He is the quintessential No. 5 starter/swingman type with home run issues (career 1.62 HR/9 and 15.8% HR/FB), and also a knack for out-of-nowhere great performances.

MLBTR projects a $4.4M salary for Germán next year, which is reasonable enough for his role, though it seems the Yankees finally decided enough was enough. The Yankees gave this guy more chances than Billy Martin and, other than the very cool perfect game, he wasn’t worth the headache. It felt like they kept waiting for Germán to be consistently solid, and he never was.

The other five guys were all expected to come off the 40-man roster this offseason. No surprises there. Once the dust settles and the Yankees activate their 60-day injured list guys Monday, they will have three open 40-man spots, with several others who are easily droppable. The first transactions of the offseason. There they are.

2. World Series thoughts. What a fitting end to the 2023 season. Congratulations to the Texas Rangers, a team that went from 102 losses in 2021 to a World Series title in 2023 by going out and getting stars and jettisoning their bad players, almost all of whom were immediately scooped up by the Yankees. Look who led Texas in plate appearances from 2019-21:

1. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 1,127
2. Joey Gallo: 911
3. Nick Solak: 879
4. Shin-Soo Choo: 787
5. Elvis Andrus: 759
6. Willie Calhoun: 729
7. Rougned Odor: 729

GM Chris Young came in, said I can’t win with these guys, got rid of them, and the Yankees were first in line to pick them up. Well, no, they were second in line for Kiner-Falefa. He was a Twin for a day. Kiner-Falefa became expendable after Texas signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, then the trade to the Yankees allowed the Twins to sign Carlos Correa. Good times.

This is completely backwards. The Yankees should be bringing in stars and luring Hall of Fame managers out of retirement and the Rangers should be picking up their scraps, not the other way around. Sometimes you’re the dog, sometimes you’re the fire hydrant. I think we know where the Yankees sit in the baseball food chain these days.

As someone who abhors tanking, I’m very happy a YOLO team won the World Series, and that a hardcore process team like the Orioles had to watch someone else do the “100+ losses in 2021 to contending in 2023” turnaround, only better. You don’t have to tank for five years to get good. Spend wisely, hire smart people, and also go 11-0 on the road in the postseason. That’s all it takes.

For real though, Texas went 11-0 on the road! The previous record for road wins in October was eight by the 1996 Yankees (8-0) and 2019 Nationals (8-1). Hell, those 11 wins are the most road games ever played in a single postseason. Prior to this season, no team had played more than nine road games in a postseason. Obviously we can thank the new format for this.

Former Yankees started four of the five World Series games for Texas: Nathan Eovaldi (twice), Andrew Heaney, and Jordan Montgomery. Aroldis Chapman came out of the bullpen a few times and Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran were on the roster too. Smith pinch-ran twice in October. Duran was added to the roster as Adolis García’s injury replacement prior to Game 4, but didn't play.

I doubt anyone cares about Heaney, and Chapman straight up quit on the Yankees last year. It’s too bad we didn’t get to see him give up another back-breaking home run this October. Eovaldi hasn’t been a Yankee in such a long time that I can’t really get worked up about him. It’s been eight years. Good for Nate. Montgomery? Oy vey. The less said about that trade, the better.

Game 1 was very exciting, as were the first six innings of Game 2. The Diamondbacks reverted back to an 84-win team in Games 3-5 and the series got away from them. They’re fun and I’m envious of their young talent, but Arizona didn’t have the juice to hang with the Rangers, who got so many big time performances from their big time players, plus several others.

There are reasons to believe Texas can be even better next season. They’ll have a full year of Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford will debut at some point (the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft reached Triple-A and slashed .360/.480/.677 (199 wRC+) in 44 games after turning pro), most of their position players are in their prime (García, Seager, Semien, etc.), and ownership spends.

World Series winners re-sign their own free agents at a disproportionate rate and I could totally see Texas opening the wallet to keep Montgomery. They need pitching and he fits well there. I hope it happens. Anything that potentially stands in the way of the Rangers landing Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a plus in my book. Hopefully Texas gives those dollars to Montgomery instead.

Congrats to the Rangers. They just completed their 52nd season as a franchise (not including the Washington Senators years) and they finally have a championship. A lot of Rangers fans waited a long time for this. The Brewers, Mariners, Padres, Rays, and Rockies are on the clock. They are the five remaining franchises without a World Series title.

3. Mining the news. There are a few small pieces of news I want to touch on briefly, so let’s do that now as Nestor Cortes gets back on the mound to throw bullpen sessions.

Padres took out $50M loan to cover payroll

According to Evan Drellich (subs. req’d), the Padres took out a $50M loan in September to cover short-term expenses, including player payroll. It’s not uncommon for teams to tap into credit lines to cover expenses, though the Padres are out of compliance with the league’s debt parameters, and it’s not like payroll snuck up on them. It was a known expense and they couldn’t cover it.

Earlier this month it was reported San Diego plans to cut payroll down to $200M next year (it was a franchise record $248.9M in 2023) in part to get back into debt compliance. Including arbitration projections, the Padres already have $190.2M on the books next season, per FanGraphs. They have very little room to improve a roster that, at minimum, needs rotation help.

I don’t think the Padres taking out a loan is that big a deal. Teams do this kinda thing all the time, usually when the owner doesn’t want to dip into his own pocket to cover expenses, but when you’re planning to cut payroll, anything that suggests you’re not making money hand over fist will get attention. Especially considering the Padres set the franchise attendance record this year.

(To be fair, San Diego got caught up in the Diamond Sports bankruptcy and Bally Sports bailed on their contract. MLB took over Padres broadcasts at midseason and guaranteed the team only 80% of the money they were owed by Diamond Sports. Their television situation is unsettled.)

Fair or not, this is more fuel for the Juan Soto trade flame. Their other big money players (Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado, etc.) have full no-trade protection and will be difficult to move. Trading Soto and his projected $33M arbitration salary would be the most straightforward way to shed payroll while also adding a healthy dose of cheap young talent.

Every contender will want Soto, though only a few are willing to absorb his salary. The Padres might not (probably won’t?) trade him within the division to the Dodgers or Giants. That leaves who other than the Yankees? The Cubs for sure. Would the Red Sox go there? The Blue Jays? The Rangers? Would the Orioles? Recent history suggests they won’t open their wallet.

The Yankees need more than Soto to be a World Series contender next season but going from the train wreck that is the current left field situation to JUAN SOTO is the single biggest upgrade they could realistically make this offseason. Based on this week’s poll, the vast majority of RAB readers want Soto. I’m with ‘em. The Yankees can return to the postseason next year and Soto is the kinda player that can take you from postseason team to World Series contender.

Uwasawa will seek MLB contract

Add another Japanese pitcher to the free agent pile: Nippon Ham Fighters right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa. Uwasawa recently told the Kyodo News he will look to sign with an MLB team this offseason through the posting system. "Teams need pitchers that can eat up innings. I can contribute by going many innings without getting an injury,” he told the Kyodo News.

Uwasawa, 30 in February, is the fourth Japanese pitcher looking to make the move to MLB this winter. The other three: Yokohama DeNA BayStars lefty Shōta Imanaga, Rakuten Golden Eagles closer Yuki Matsui, and of course Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Uwasawa pitched to a 2.96 ERA with 17.8% strikeouts and 5.9% walks in 170 innings this season. Here’s video.

Those 170 innings led NPB and Uwasawa is one of the top innings guys in Japan. The only time he’s lost to injury came in 2019, when he was limited to 71.1 innings after being hit by a comebacker and breaking a bone in his leg. Otherwise he’s out there every fifth day, pitching deep into games. Or, really, every seventh day, because they pitch once a week in Japan.

MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski likened Uwasawa to former Rangers righty Kohei Arihara because he “doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that Arihara had when he was coming to MLB.” Arihara had a 7.57 ERA (6.65 FIP) in 60.2 innings spanning the 2021-22 seasons with Texas. The Rangers gave him two years and $6.2M, and he’s back in Japan now.

The only Japanese players the Yankees have seriously pursued since Kei Igawa are Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani, who came over at 25 and 23, respectively, and were stars in Japan. Best in the league kinda players. With all due respect, guys like Uwasawa aren’t their cup of tea. That “maybe he can be a back-end guy” demographic. I figured I’d mention him because he’ll be available, but yeah, I don’t see the Yankees going after Uwasawa.

Mendoza interviews with Giants, Mets

Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza has interviewed for the Giants and Mets managerial jobs, report Joel Sherman and Andy Martino. San Francisco recently hired Bob Melvin, so Mendoza is out of the running there, though he was called back for a second interview with the Mets. Mendoza interviewed with the Guardians a few weeks ago. He’s a popular guy this offseason.

Nothing is done yet, though it feels inevitable the Mets will reunite Craig Counsell with president of baseball operations David Stearns. Those two were together with the Brewers. Mendoza’s best shot at the job is Counsell deciding he’d rather stay in Milwaukee, his hometown. Otherwise this feels like another offseason of being the runner-up. Mendoza is up to six career managerial interviews (that we know of): Giants, Guardians, Mets, Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox.

Yankees hire Zelus Analytics

Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) tracked down the outside firm the Yankees hired to do this analytics audit: Zelus Analytics, which was founded by two former members of the Dodgers front office and has several former MLB front office people on its roster (including Andrew Hopen, once a member of the Yankees analytics team). So there you go. That’s the firm the Yankees hired.

Kuty (sub. req’d) says Zelus will “allow the Yankees to view how it crunches its numbers in terms of player performance, in-game decision-making and much more.” Great. Wake me up when this audit leads to improved results. Right now it feels like a great big “look at us! we’re doing something! see? we’re trying!”

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Sam asks: So there's been no Brian Cashman presser. Are the Yankees the only non-playoff team to not have a postmortem with the GM/Head of Baseball Ops? Could the Yankees just...not have one? It all sort of reeks of the fan unfriendly/indignant tone management has taken. What gives?

The only other teams yet to hold their postmortem press conference are the Diamondbacks and Rangers, who were still playing as of 36 hours ago, and the Cardinals. St. Louis missed the postseason just like the Yankees, and they’ve said nothing since the end of the regular season. Every other team held their press conference within days of their season ending.

Pregame and postgame media clubhouse access is spelled out in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, but there’s nothing about postmortem press conferences. It’s just traditional to talk about your season after it ends. The manager and GM aren’t talking to reporters, they’re talking to fans through reporters, and we’re still waiting a month later for the Yankees to say something.

Really though, the silence says it all. The Yankees obviously are not making any meaningful front office changes or a managerial change, that would have been announced already, and they are being very dismissive toward fans. We’re not important enough to acknowledge. It sucks, man. There is a total lack of accountability with this organization. No one faces the music ever.

(That all said, nothing ever really gets said at these press conferences. It’s all cliches and GM speak. Rarely are they candid. Still, go out there and talk! Acknowledge your season!)

Ray asks: This is what scares the hell out of me. If I have my lousy math right, the Yankees finished seven games out of a playoff spot. Hal goes, oh, if we had Judge all season; if Stanton rebounds in '24; if we have Rizzo all year; if Cortes is OK and Rodon pitches to his capability; if, if, if .... Hal, looking at his luxury tax bill, says, there's no need to spend more because we were pretty close as it is. Are my fears misplaced?

No, your fears aren’t misplaced. We know payroll is in a place Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t want it to be. I’m just not sure how they could cut money and field a contender next season. My estimate has them at $240.62M for luxury tax purposes next year and that’s without a center fielder, a left fielder, pitching depth, etc. The Yankees could trade Gleyber Torres and duck under the $237M luxury tax threshold, but the team would be worse than the one that just went 82-80.

Maybe Hal doesn’t care? The Yankees are looking at a $34.35M tax bill on a $298.5M luxury tax payroll this season, so that’s $329.85M all in. Get payroll down to $237M next season and that’s a $92.85M payroll reduction. Call it $95M since these are just estimates. Perhaps Hal values saving that $95M more than he does putting the best possible team on the field. He’ll live with the bad press as he swims in his vault of money Scrooge McDuck style each morning.

Jeremy asks: I will go to my grave knowing with certainty that there is another parallel timeline out there in which Ohtani picked the Yankees, Cashman never had to trade for Stanton and with the money saved they were able to sign Harper as a free agent. Ohtani’s decision to not consider the Yankees was a fork in the road that completely messed up this franchise, and led to incredibly awful decisions by hal and cash. What is your view of all this?

We can never be 100% sure with these things, though I’m confident saying the Yankees would not have made the Giancarlo Stanton trade had they landed Shohei Ohtani. I am not confident saying the Yankees would have signed Bryce Harper the following offseason though. If anything, I think they would have signed Manny Machado. I say that for three reasons:

• Other than Stanton, all those outfielders Brian Cashman cited as reasons for passing on Harper were still around (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, etc.).
• Machado was (and still is, really) the more analytically friendly player because he’s such a great defender at a more premium position, and he has better contact rates.
• The Yankees did wine and dine Machado that offseason. They never did that with Harper. Not even a token “hey, you’re a great player, why don’t we talk for a bit?”

Machado’s great! The guy’s hit .275/.345/.495 (127 wRC+) with Gold Glove defense and two top three finishes in the NL MVP voting since signing with San Diego. I would have been more than happy with him. Harper was the better fit though given his left-handed power and general vibes. Then again, if you have Ohtani, do you need Harper’s lefty pop?

Also, are we sure Ohtani becomes this with the Yankees? The Angels managed his workload very carefully his first three years and he still got hurt, and his performance was up and down. It wasn’t until 2021, when the Angels essentially told him to do whatever you want, that Ohtani became the player he is today. They trusted him to prepare the way he needed to prepare and to tell them when he needed a rest. It worked.

I’m not sure the Yankees, who can go overboard with load management (they do it with good intentions, but they do go overboard at times), would have turned Ohtani loose the way the Angels did. They might’ve gotten a lesser version of him, and hey, maybe that means they get a +7 WAR version of Ohtani instead of the +10 WAR version. That’s still really good!

Would having Ohtani prevented the Yankees from making bad decisions like, say, the Joey Gallo and Frankie Montas trades? Those were justifiable at the time, no? We didn’t see them as bad decisions the day they were made. They just didn’t work out. I’m not sure having Ohtani would have been the difference between good decisions and bad decisions. The front office probably still would have lost its fastball, only Ohtani would have helped overcome those mistakes.

Chris asks: How has Tanaka been doing in Japan since the Yankees didn’t re-sign him? In hindsight, did he have a few more years of MLB quality stuff to offer? Or has it looked like the right move? I think about him whenever we talk lack of starting pitcher depth which it seeks like we have each offseason.

Masahiro Tanaka turned 35 earlier this week and he just wrapped up the worst season of his career in any league: 4.91 ERA with 13.5% strikeouts and 6.3% walks in 139.1 innings. The league averages this year were a 3.15 ERA (!) with 19.2% strikeouts and 8.0% walks. In July, Yakyu Cosmopolitan noted Tanaka ranked dead last among qualified starters in many important categories (ERA, FIP, hard-hit rate, etc.), and his end-of-season numbers were worse than they were in July. Eek.

Earlier this week the Rakuten Golden Eagles announced Tanaka had a “clean up” procedure on his elbow and will miss four months, which will likely delay his start to Spring Training and maybe the regular season too. Perhaps the injury explains his poor season? Tanaka was very effective from 2021-22 (3.16 ERA with 19.5% strikeouts and 4.6% walks), then things fell apart this year. Maybe it’s injury, maybe it’s age. Tanaka’s closing in on 3,000 innings. He may just be cooked.

Tanaka’s final season with the Yankees was the 2020 pandemic season. He had a 3.56 ERA (4.42 FIP) with 22.3% strikeouts and 4.1% walks in 48 innings, though he posted career worst ground ball (43.3%) and chase (32.7%) rates by several percentage points, and his trademark splitter stopped getting swings and misses in 2019:

Remember when Tanaka had so much trouble with the rocket ball in 2019 that he took the rather drastic step of changing his splitter grip? He never did get that swing-and-miss ability back, at least not with the Yankees (I don’t have access to pitch data from Japan). Tanaka threw roughly 30% fastballs and 70% splitters and sliders by the end of his time with the Yankees, and his splitter no longer cooperated.

When the Yankees let Tanaka leave, it was reported they believed his stuff was declining, and it was. His splitter wasn’t the same and he was losing velocity in his early 30s (which is totally normally at that age). Could Tanaka have given the Yankees a league average-ish season in 2021? Yeah, maybe. The Yankees effectively replaced Tanaka with Corey Kluber, and Kluber gave them 80 innings with a 3.83 ERA (3.85 FIP) around injuries.

In hindsight, the Yankees probably let Tanaka go at the right time. Feels like a “better to let him leave a year too early than a year too late” situation. Watching a diminished Luis Severino this season was a major bummer. Doing it with Tanaka in 2021 would have really stunk.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)