October 10th, 2023: Volpe, Arbitration Projections, Qualifying Offer

Site note: Patreon rolled out a massive update last week and reader, I hate it. The backend is clunky and needlessly complicated – why are the post editor and schedule/publish settings on different pages??? – and bold text did not show in the email I received for last Friday’s post, which made the mailbag in particular difficult to read. Maybe it’s a Gmail thing and not a Patreon thing because bold text shows on the Patreon site? I dunno. Please bear with me while I figure out how to work around everything the update broke. Thanks.

1. Assessing Volpe’s rookie season. One way or another, the Yankees were going with a rookie shortstop this past season. Oswald Peraza was, not incorrectly, viewed as the favorite to win the job. He debuted late last season and even got some postseason starts, and had almost a full year in Triple-A. Anthony Volpe had only about a month in Triple-A.

“(It will be an) honest-to-goodness open competition,” Brian Cashman told Dan Martin about the shortstop position at last year’s Winter Meetings. “... We do have kids currently. We do have competition at the shortstop spot. We’ll see where it shakes out.”

It shook out that Volpe blew everyone away during Grapefruit League play while Peraza underwhelmed, so Volpe got the shortstop job and Peraza returned to Triple-A. I thought it was the right move! I think a lot of us did. There was a certain maturity to Volpe’s at-bats and a calmness to his game. Pablo López even praised Volpe for making in-game adjustments.

“He saw what he saw from me (when I struck him out in his first at-bat), and then he went to the plate with a better understanding and idea, and then he executed that plan (and hit a home run in his next at-bat). That shows a lot of maturity. That shows a lot of promise,” López told Bryan Hoch on March 24th. “A young kid making those kinds of adjustments and then hitting that ball that hard, that far, to the deepest part of the ballpark, yeah, obviously I think he’s a very good player.”

I don’t want to say Spring Training was the highlight of Volpe’s 2023 but it kinda was? He had an up and down rookie year, which is not uncommon, plenty of rookies go through growing pains, but there were more downs than ups, and the overall offensive performance was lacking even with Volpe becoming the first 20/20 rookie in franchise history. Let’s play the Mystery Player game:

Any guesses on the Mystery Player? He’s a recent Yankee and those are his numbers with the Yankees. I’ll give you a few seconds.

…

…

…

The Mystery Player is Rougned Odor. Now, there’s a difference between Odor doing that at age 27 and in his eighth MLB season while having the platoon advantage more often than not and Volpe doing it as a rookie, but Volpe’s overall output this year was Odorian. It was bad. It was bad for a rookie and it was bad for a 22-year-old. Setting the plate appearance minimum to 300:

That’s among 35 rookie-eligible players and 13 players aged 22 and younger (regardless of rookie status) with 300 plate appearances this year. Ignoring the 2020 pandemic season, Volpe’s 84 wRC+ is the worst by a rookie with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title since Dansby Swanson hit .232/.312/.324 (63 wRC+) in 2017.

Two things about that. One, Volpe becoming Swanson would be a good outcome! But Swanson did not put up even a league average batting line in a 162-game season until 2022, his sixth year in the big leagues. That timeline wouldn’t work for the Yankees. They need the production now, before Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge age out and stop being best in the world type players.

And two, only seven rookies since Swanson managed to qualify for the batting title with a sub-90 wRC+ (one is Volpe). That’s because rookies who perform that poorly typically get sent back to the minors and don’t get enough plate appearances to be eligible for the batting title (502 are needed). For better or worse, sending Volpe down was never on the table. Hal Steinbrenner said so himself.

“I’ve had zero conversations about (about a demotion),” Steinbrenner told Greg Joyce in June. “I think defensively he’s been pretty solid. Pitchers have adjusted to him now. He’s going to have some adjustments to make himself. I don’t think any of this is out of the ordinary. I told Anthony at the end of Spring Training, ‘You are the starting shortstop of the New York Yankees. This isn’t a three-week trial.’ So it’s going to be that, through the ups and downs.”

Once the owner says that, you can’t send the player down and make the guy writing the checks look stupid, so Volpe stayed in the big leagues. I think a midseason trip to Triple-A would have served Volpe well – it would have given him a chance to make adjustments in a low stakes environment – but it was never a consideration. It’s hard to give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt when it comes to finishing off the development of young hitters, so it is what it is.

That’s the big picture view of Volpe’s rookie season. Let’s break it down a little more now, and see what he needs to improve moving forward.

Defense

Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way first. The numbers say Volpe was anywhere from an above average shortstop to the best defensive shortstop in the league. I lean toward the former. He was very good more than elite, though Volpe has a good chance to be a Gold Glove finalist, if not win the award outright. Defense is the only reason Volpe was a +3.2 WAR player in 2023.

Coming into the season, the scouting reports touted Volpe as a sound defender with good range and great hands, and great instincts. That’s more or less what I saw. His 17 errors were sixth most in baseball, though they were mostly bunched together early in the year (rookie adjusting to faster play? nerves?) and late in the year (fatigued?). I’d say Volpe was sure-handed overall.

Defensively, the biggest question about Volpe was his arm. It was labeled an average arm during his prospect days – Volpe went to Wake Forest’s pitching lab to try to boost his arm strength two offseasons ago – and the numbers on his arm strength are below average:

• Average throw: 81.8 mph (MLB SS average: 86.3 mph)
• Max throw: 87.3 mph

Volpe’s average throw velocity ranked 43rd among the 57 players with at least 100 throws at shortstop in 2023. His max throw ranked 41st and was only slightly better than the average shortstop throw. Volpe has a below average arm. The eye test matches the scouting report.

That said, the numbers on Volpe’s arm are in the same range as Trea Turner (82.3 mph average and 85.4 mph max) and J.P. Crawford (82.3 and 85.1, respectively), and those guys have made it work for a long time. You don’t absolutely need a cannon arm to play short. It certainly helps, but a weaker arm can work with a quick transfer and smarts, which I think Volpe demonstrated.

Seven of Volpe’s 17 errors were throwing errors (the other 10 were booted grounders, etc.) and here’s the video. Some plays required extraordinary effort and Volpe was unable to complete the play, others were fairly routine and simply botched. Anecdotally, I think DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo saved Volpe multiple errors on short hops this season. His throws were dicey at times.

You can only improve arm strength so much. There’s no amount of training that will give me a 95 mph fastball. Maybe Volpe can add a little more oomph to his throws, but more likely his arm is what it is, and it’s really the only missing ingredient defensively. Volpe has the range, hands, and internal clock to play shortstop. With any luck, he’ll make his below average arm work long-term like Crawford and Turner.

The chatter about Volpe having to move to second base has more to do with Peraza than Volpe. Peraza is the superior defender. That was pretty obvious late in the season. He has more range than Volpe, smoother actions, and a better arm (average 88.2 mph throw this year). In a vacuum, the Yankees’ best defensive alignment has Peraza at short and Volpe at second. I’m not sure that’s arguable.

This is not a vacuum though, and second base is occupied by the Yankees’ second best position player. That is a conversation for another time though. Right now, I just want to focus on Volpe’s rookie season, and defense was the best part of it. Yeah, his arm is lacking, but Volpe is a legitimate Major League shortstop. He showed he can play the position at this level.

Baserunning

Remember when Volpe went 13-for-13 stealing bases to begin the season? That was really fun. It is the longest successful stolen base streak to begin a season in franchise history, topping Joe DiMaggio’s 12-for-12 in 1939. Volpe hopped around at first base …

… and generally drove pitchers mad. How many times did we see a pitcher throw over only for Volpe to be literally standing on first base? In addition to an excellent 47% extra base taken rate, he was the kind of daring basestealer who got into a pitcher’s head and made it an event for fans when he reached first base. Those guys are rare.

The operative word there is was, because after going 13-for-13 in his first 41 games, Volpe went only 11-for-16 (69%) stealing bases in his final 118 games, plus he got picked off five times (four times at first base and once after breaking for second). There were also a few other pickoff plays that were close enough to warrant replay review.

Volpe went 50-for-57 (88%) stealing bases in the minors last year and I think that along with the 13-for-13 start this year created misconceptions about him as a basestealer. He’s not and never was a burner. Volpe steals with instincts more than pure speed. To be clear, he is an above average runner …

• Sprint speed: 28.4 feet per second (MLB average: 27.0 feet per second)
• 90-foot time: 3.94 seconds (MLB average: 4.02 seconds)

… but he’s not a top of the line speedster. Nearly 600 players made enough competitive runs to have their speed recorded by Statcast this season and Volpe ranks 129th in sprint speed and 153rd in average 90-foot time. With experience, perhaps he’ll rattle off a 40-steal season one of these years, though I think his ceiling is more in the 30-steal range. And that’s great!

I think Volpe’s in-season decline as a basestealer is a result of teams catching on to the vault lead and adjusting. The vault lead is not a Volpe exclusive. It is growing in popularity around the league and the Yankees teach it in the minors. Volpe became the poster boy because he was a top prospect and prominent Yankees rookie. Those guys get a lot of attention.

The league adjusted to the vault lead and found a way to reduce its effectiveness, and now it’s on Volpe and the Yankees and everyone else who uses it to adjust back. There was a point in the middle of the season when Volpe stopped getting the same jumps as he did in April and May. The league adjusted, now he has to adjust back. It is the way of the world.

Volpe was worth +3.5 runs on the bases according to the all-encompassing baserunning metric at FanGraphs, so above average but not elite. I believe he has room to grow there once he figures out his leads and jumps. Volpe went 24-for-29 (83%) stealing bases this year. He has the smarts and enough speed to be a 30-steal guy with an 85% success rate.

Offense

Volpe’s defense and baserunning are above average. Exactly how much is up for debate, though I think we can all agree Volpe was a positive contributor in those areas. Offense is another story. As I said earlier, his batting line was Odorian, and Volpe didn’t really get better as the season progressed. He was up, then down, then up again, then down again.

Volpe’s worst month was September (.163/.226/.255 and 33 wRC+) and maybe he just ran out of gas. He played 159 games this season (150 starts) after never playing more than 132 games in a pro season. Also, Major League games are more intense than minor league games, and the schedule and travel and all that are demanding. Fatigue would be understandable.

At the same time, I’ve spent the last few days watching Corbin Carroll raise hell in the postseason, and he’s basically the same age as Volpe. Maybe Volpe got fatigued in his age 22 season. It’s possible. It’s also possible Volpe just finished the year in another down period. He had several of them this season and some were really ugly.

There were times Volpe looked good – very good – at the plate. After his chicken parm powwow with Austin Wells, he went on a three-week heater with a .379/.446/.603 (193 wRC+) line in 18 games. That ugly September was preceded by an excellent August: .256/.333/.556 (142 wRC+). Maybe excellent is generous given the AVG and OBP, but that slash line will play.

Opposing teams will tell you a lot about your players. The Orioles have their act together these days and, when the Yankees went to Baltimore in April, they buried Volpe with elevated fastballs (video). He went 1-for-11 with five strikeouts in the three games. It was Volpe’s second week in the big leagues and a division rival had already identified his weakness, and exploited it.

But! But Volpe did eventually adjust to the high fastballs. Granted, elevated heaters are not really a pitch you can hit. The adjustment is laying off the pitch entirely, or fouling it away to keep the at-bat going. Here’s Volpe against fastballs in the upper third of the zone and above:

• April through June: 46.8% chases and 38.6% whiffs
• July through Sept.: 41.9% chases and 31.6% whiffs
• MLB averages: 48.1% chases and 28.9% whiffs

During the final three months Volpe chased the high fastball at a rate far lower than league average, and he cut his whiffs nearly 20%. That’s real improvement. The next step is combating breaking balls away and the outer half in general. Volpe was an pull hitter coming up through the minors and it was true again in the big leagues. The numbers:

• Low-A: 52.9% pull and 29.5% grounders
• High-A: 44.0% pull and 26.1% grounders
• Double-A: 47.2% pull and 27.5% grounders
• Triple-A: 39.0% pull and 32.2% grounders (small sample)
• MLB: 45.6% pull and 41.1% grounders

I’m not sure how or where it started but there’s a narrative out there that Volpe was an all-fields hitter in the minors, and he got away from that in the big leagues. That was never really the case. Volpe has always pulled the ball a ton because the Yankees emphasize exit velocity (to a fault) and the best way to generate exit velocity is pulling the ball.

This has left Volpe (and other exit velocity conscious Yankees) overly focused on the inner half and susceptible to anything on the outer half, especially breaking balls. I mean, every hitter is susceptible to breaking balls away. There’s a reason they’ve been such a popular and effective pitch as long as they have. But Volpe against breaking balls is, uh, bad:

Figuring out the outer half of the zone (against everything, though especially breaking balls) is the single biggest priority for Volpe and really for the Yankees. This is your handpicked franchise shortstop, right? Well, here’s a clear weakness, a weakness that was attacked all season. I’m not sure how you solve this without abandoning the exit velocity above all approach, if solving it is even possible.

The thing is, Volpe has legit power. Even as a little guy (listed at 5-foot-9 and 180 lbs.), he doesn’t have to pull the ball to hit it out of the park, and I’m not talking about using the short porch either. Volpe’s last home run of the season was a no joke blast to right-center in Pittsburgh (video). The pitch was off the plate and he still hit it 417 feet. You can’t fake that kinda power.

That is what aggravates me but also gives me hope for Volpe. He clearly doesn’t need to pull the ball to do damage. He can be a dangerous all-fields hitter. It’s in there. We saw glimpses of it this season. Volpe was a rookie – a rookie who essentially skipped over Triple-A at that – so we have to grade on a curve, but he still deserves some blame for his poor rookie season.

For me, Volpe’s year is an indictment of the Yankees and their overall hitting philosophy more than Volpe. He only practiced what they preach. There’s enough natural hitting ability and power and baseball smarts in there for Volpe to be a really good hitter. I’m just not sure the Yankees will be able to get the most out of him. Their hitter development record is terrible.

Volpe can cover the inner half. We know that much. We also saw him improve against elevated fastballs as the season progresses, so he’s demonstrated some ability to make adjustments. Up next is figuring out how to be competitive in the outer half of the strike zone. It was a vulnerability all season and closing that hole is how Volpe can take the biggest step forward.

“You can’t teach experience. If he was in Scranton this year and had an All-Star year hitting whatever, it wouldn’t be as effective and advantageous as it would be for him to be here for a full year, grind, and have some ups and downs in the big leagues,” Sean Casey told Gary Phillips the last weekend in Kansas City. “Failure is information. Failure is feedback. For a guy like Volpe to be 22 and have the failure that he had up here at times during this season, it only gives him information coming into next year to be a better version of himself.”

Volpe added: “There’s so much work to do. For me personally, and then as a team. We all know that we weren’t even really close to our goal. This is my rookie year, 22 years old. I don’t think there’s a 22-year-old in the world that doesn’t have to get better everywhere. I feel like I learned a ton this season. In a couple weeks (I’ll) start to break everything down and get to work.”

What happens next?

I mean, Volpe’s the shortstop, right? There’s no reason to think the Yankees are moving on or will even make him compete for the job in Spring Training. That wouldn’t be a bad idea, honestly. Volpe is a smart kid and competitive. Say “we had a bad year and everyone has to prove themselves next spring.” Light a little fire under everyone. Competition can be a good, healthy thing.

I do think counting on Volpe to be a key offensive contributor next year would be a mistake. Pencil him in the No. 9 hitter (or No. 8 if they go glove over bat at catcher again) and treat anything he gives you offensively as a bonus. The Yankees went into this season expecting whoever they put at short to be an upgrade over Isiah Kiner-Falefa and that didn’t really happen, at least not to a significant enough extent, which is one reason they’re at home right now.

There’s an entire offseason ahead of us and we’ll see how things go, but Peraza is out of minor league options now, so he’ll be on the MLB roster next year. That or traded, and if he’s not traded, how do you get him and Volpe into the everyday lineup? I’m not sure. Point is, there were some bright spots this summer, but Volpe’s rookie year was largely a letdown. There are a few real weaknesses he and the Yankees must work to improve.

“There’s no doubt that he’s going to be one of the cornerstone guys for us moving forward in the future,” Aaron Boone told Phillips. “I can’t wait to see the kind of winter he has to hopefully take another big jump in his development going into next year.”

2. 2024 arbitration projections. Late last week Matt Swartz and the MLBTR crew published their annual arbitration salary projections. As long as it’s not a weird 60-game pandemic season, their model has proven to be quite accurate over the years. At minimum, their projections give us a very good ballpark figure for payroll estimation purposes.

The Yankees have the largest arbitration class in baseball this winter – 17 players! – though not all of them will stick around. I’m not sure even half the 17 will make it to Spring Training. Several will get non-tendered or released or traded over the winter. Anyway, let’s go through the salary projections and see what’s what.

Obviously safe

• Gleyber Torres: $15.3M (fourth time eligible as Super Two) ($9.95M in 2023)
• Clay Holmes: $6M (third time eligible) ($3.3M in 2023)
• Nestor Cortes: $3.9M (second time eligible) ($3.2M in 2023)
• Jose Trevino: $2.7M (second time eligible) ($2.36M in 2023)
• Mike King: $2.6M (second time eligible) ($1.3M in 2023)
• Clarke Schmidt: $2.6M (first time eligible as Super Two) ($740,475 in 2023)
• Jonathan Loáisiga: $2.5M (third time eligible) ($2.2625M in 2023)

A few players in this group might get traded during the offseason, but none are at risk of being non-tendered for salary reasons. All year long I said Gleyber would be in the $13M range next season and I was way short there. Whoops. That’s a me mistake, not something wrong with MLBTR’s model. We’re good with this group, right? Onward.

Probably safe

• Kyle Higashioka: $2.3M (third time eligible) ($1.4625M in 2023)
• Albert Abreu: $900,000 (first time eligible as Super Two) ($738,700 in 2023)

Pretty good chance Higashioka has played his final game with the Yankees. You don’t have to try too hard to see them going with Trevino and Austin Wells behind the plate next year, with Ben Rortvedt in Triple-A (I think Rortvedt will qualify for a fourth option given all the time he spent on the minor league injured list). In that case, there’s no room for Higashioka, the longest-tenured player in the organization (drafted in 2008).

The going rate for a free agent backup catcher last offseason was $2.5M to $3.25M. That got you someone like Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali, or Roberto Pérez. The best free agent catchers this offseason will be Victor Caratini, Mitch Garver, and Gary Sánchez. So yeah, there should be a trade market for Higashioka at $2.3M. Someone will want a dingers-and-defense backup.

As for Abreu, his projection is slightly more than the league minimum ($740,000 in 2024) and we’re talking about the last guy on the bullpen. If the Yankees don’t give the $900,000 to Abreu, they’ll just give it to some other inconsistent hard-thrower we all complain about. Maybe they’ll keep Abreu, maybe they won’t. History (i.e. 2023) suggests they will.

It’s complicated

• Domingo Germán: $4.4M (third time eligible as Super Two) ($2.6M in 2023)
• Jimmy Cordero: $900,000 (first time eligible) ($720,000 in 2023)

Look, we know the Yankees do not consider domestic violence suspensions disqualifying. They traded for Aroldis Chapman while he was being investigated and they've kept Germán around nearly three years after his suspension. What does that mean for Cordero? I don’t know. Seems to me a 31-year-old journeyman middle reliever isn’t worth the headache, but maybe the Yankees see $900,000 as good value and keep him.

As for Germán, was his clubhouse tirade before leaving the Yankees to get treatment for alcohol abuse the final straw, or do the Yankees view him as someone who needed help and has taken steps to better himself? As a reminder, here’s what happened:

(Sources) said that Germán appeared intoxicated when he arrived at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday and was soon involved in confrontations with teammates and manager Aaron Boone. He flipped over a couch in the clubhouse, smashed at least one television, and was held for a period of time in the facility’s “nap room” while being monitored by team security.

We have no idea what’s going on with Germán now and we have no idea what else happened in the clubhouse that day or any other days. Baseball-wise, Germán is the epitome of a competent depth starter. He’s great some days and terrible on others, and isn’t really someone a contender pencils into their rotation on Opening Day. He gets subbed in when someone else gets hurt.

The upcoming free agent class is awful and giving away capable pitching depth is bad business – that $4.4M projection is Zach Davies money in free agency – but it feels like the Yankees might have reached their limit with Germán. I think it’s more likely he and Cordero get cut loose this winter than stick around. We’ll find out soon enough.

Non-tender candidates

• Lou Trivino: $4.1M (fourth time eligible as Super Two) ($4.1M in 2023)
• Jake Bauers: $1.7M (first time eligible) (unknown salary in 2023)
• Franchy Cordero: $1.6M (third time eligible as Super Two) ($1M in 2023)
• Billy McKinney: $1.2M (first time eligible) (unknown salary in 2023)
• Matt Bowman: $1M (second time eligible) (unknown salary in 2023)
• Ryan Weber: $900,000 (first time eligible as a Super Two) (unknown salary in 2023)

Trivino had Tommy John surgery on May 2nd and the typical 14-16 month rehab puts him on track to return in July at the earliest. Maybe he can make it back sooner since he’s a reliever who doesn’t have to get stretched out? I’m just not sure I see the Yankees spending $4.1M on a good but not great reliever who figures to miss half the season. One setback and that money is wasted.

The other five guys are pretty self-explanatory. Bauers is the only one of the five with a chance to hang around and that’s only because the Yankees are overly obsessed with exit velocity. Even then, Bauers is someone you can non-tender and re-sign to a minor league contract. And if he goes elsewhere instead, so be it. Paying him $1.7M through arbitration seems unwise.

I should note MLB and the MLBPA agreed to change arbitration contracts in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Now anyone who signs before the salary filing deadline in January gets a fully guaranteed contract. Sign after the deadline or go to a hearing and you’re only entitled to 30 or 45 days termination pay (depending when it happens) if you get released in Spring Training.

Because of that, a lot of fringe roster guys jumped on contracts early last offseason, and often took a discount to get the guarantee. Abreu, for example, could sign for something like $825,000 instead of his $900,000 projection just to lock in a big league contract, and not risk a non-tender and having to settle for a minor league deal at a much lower salary.

2024 payroll estimate

Now that we have the arbitration projections, we can better estimate the 2024 payroll. I’m going to assume the Yankees will non-tender Bauers, Bowman, Germán, McKinney, Trivino, Weber, and the two Corderos. Here’s the luxury tax payroll estimate:

• Guaranteed contracts (7 players): $165.75M
• Arbitration-eligibles (9 players): $38.8M
• Dead money: $10M (Aaron Hicks)
• Miscellany: $18.67M (pre-arb bonus pool, benefits package, etc.)

(It’s really $9.26M for Hicks because whichever team signs him gets him at the $740,000 league minimum, and that is subtracted from the Yankees’ obligation. For now, let’s just roll with $10M.)

That adds up to $233.22M for 16 roster spots, though one of those arb-eligible players is Higashioka, who probably won’t be around next year. Let’s stick with him for now though. Fill out the 26-man roster with 10 players making the $740,000 minimum and we’re up to $240.62M. That buys you this roster (guaranteed contract in yellow, arb-eligibles in green):

Filling out the roster with 10 players at the minimum is unrealistic. For starters, the Yankees have a sliding salary scale for pre-arb players based on service time and special accomplishments (All-Star games, etc.), so those players will make a little more than the minimum, plus the Yankees will sign free agents and make trades and all that. As things stand, that $240.62M is the bare bones 26-man roster.

The luxury tax threshold is $237M next season and I just don’t see how the Yankees could duck under to reset their tax rates while fielding a competitive roster. They’d have to trade Gleyber and go cheap all over the field. We’ve seen ownership randomly slash payroll some years, but doing it a year after missing the postseason? Let’s be realistic here. It’s not happening.

The threshold is $237M and that means the other penalty tiers are $257M, $277M, and $297M. The tax rate goes up with each tier and, at $277M, your 2025 first round pick gets moved back 10 spots. Maybe – maybe – the Yankees will stay under the $277M threshold next year and sell it as preserving their draft pick when it would really be about saving money.

I still don’t buy it. The Yankees just went 82-80 and missed the 12-team postseason, Cole and Judge say they’re going to meet with the front office to discuss ways to improve the roster, and Brian Cashman called this season a “disaster.” How could you cut payroll after all that? I will assume a $297M-ish payroll next year until I have reason to believe otherwise.

Assuming a $297M payroll, our $233.22M estimate for 16 roster spots leaves $63.78M for the remaining 10 roster spots. That’s a lot, especially since a few spots will go to players making close to the minimum (Hamilton, Volpe, etc.), but it goes fast. With that money the Yankees need a left fielder, a center fielder, ideally a third baseman, ideally a starting pitcher, bullpen help, and miscellaneous depth. There’s a lot – A LOT – of work to be done this winter.

3. Qualifying offers. The offseason started earlier than usual around these parts and that gives the Yankees a nice big head start over the rest of the league. Key decisions, like the qualifying offer, have likely already been made. Joel Sherman says the qualifying offer will be worth $20.5M this offseason, the richest ever and up from $19.65M last offseason. It is set at the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball.

Quick refresher: Free agents who accept the qualifying offer return to their team on a one-year contract worth that $20.5M. Free agents who reject it are tied to draft pick compensation. The qualifying offer has been around since the 2012-13 offseason and the Yankees have issued it 10 times, but only three times in the last eight offseasons. The 10 and the outcomes:

• Aaron Judge (2022): Re-signed with Yankees.
• Anthony Rizzo (2022): Re-signed with Yankees.
• DJ LeMahieu (2020): Re-signed with Yankees.
• David Robertson (2014): Used comp pick on Kyle Holder.
• Robinson Canó (2013): Forfeited comp pick to sign Carlos Beltrán.
• Curtis Granderson (2013): Forfeited comp pick to sign Jacoby Ellsbury.
• Hiroki Kuroda (2012 and 2013): Re-signed with Yankees both times.
• Rafael Soriano (2012): Used comp pick on Ian Clarkin.
• Nick Swisher (2012): Used comp pick on Judge.

Hey, one out of three comp picks ain’t bad. Giving Judge and Rizzo the qualifying offer was a no-brainer last offseason – Rizzo opted out of his $16M salary, so of course he wasn’t going to take the qualifying offer and a relatively small raise – Jameson Taillon not so much. The Yankees did not tender it and Taillon wound up with a four-year contract. Let’s go over this year’s qualifying offer decisions.

Compensation rules

Let’s get this out of the way first. The Yankees were way over the $233M luxury tax threshold this past season, so their free agent compensation situation is straightforward. These are the rules that apply to them this winter:

• Lose a qualified free agent: Receive a comp pick after the fourth round (that will be the No. 135-ish overall pick)
• Sign a qualifying free agent: Forfeit second and fifth highest draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money.

Just so it’s clear, those are all 2024 draft picks, and the $1M comes out of the bonus pool for the 2025 international signing period, not the 2024 signing period that begins in January. Compensation for teams that were under the luxury tax threshold is tied to the size of the player’s contract. We don’t have to worry about any of that.

The only candidate: Luis Severino

Realistically, the Yankees’ only qualifying offer candidate this year isn’t much of a qualifying offer candidate at all. Severino again missed time with injuries this season, and, for the first time, he pitched poorly. At least in the past, Severino was great when healthy. This year he had a 6.65 ERA (6.14 FIP) in 89.1 innings. Opponents hit .301/.366/.555 against him. Yeesh.

Severino won’t approach a $20.5M salary in 2024. Maybe he gets more across multiple years, but the most likely outcome is a one-year prove yourself contract in the $13M range, similar to Noah Syndergaard last offseason. Severino’s time with the Yankees is almost certainly over. Even if the Yankees want him back, they would pass on the qualifying offer and try to re-sign him at a lower salary. The qualifying offer ain’t happening.

Not happening: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Frankie Montas, Wandy Peralta

There has been speculation the Yankees could re-sign Montas to an incentive-laden one-year contract. It certainly would not be on a one-year contract worth $20.5M guaranteed. I’m not sure any team would guarantee a pitcher who essentially missed the season with shoulder surgery that much, even across multiple years. No chance Montas gets a qualifying offer.

Kiner-Falefa has said he wants an opportunity to play. Enough to pass up a $20.5M salary next season? I doubt it. He’d take the $20.5M, be a bench player again, and give free agency a go next winter. Reliever contracts are unpredictable – could Wandy get three years at $7M per offseason? – but yeah, middle relievers don’t get qualifying offers. Kiner-Falefa and Peralta join Montas as firm nos.

Not eligible: Keynan Middleton

Middleton was traded at midseason, so he is not eligible for the qualifying offer, not that he would get one anyway. I could see the Yankees re-signing Middleton – I’m in favor of it – though I’m thinking something like two years and $6M to $8M total, not $20.5M. Unless the Yankees shock us all with Severino, they won’t make any qualifying offers this season, so no extra picks next summer. Considering the comp pick would only be a post-fourth rounder, it’s not a big missed opportunity.

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