October 6th, 2023: Draft Lottery, Soto, Mailbag

Heck of a Wild Card Series for former Yankees pitchers: 24.1 IP, 19 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 25 K, 1 HR between Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, Chad Green, Jordan Montgomery, David Robertson, and the legend Joe Mantiply. I didn’t even include Zack Littell, Elvis Peguero, and Erik Swanson, who spent time in the farm system but never pitched for the Yankees. On one hand, it’s good the Yankees identified all those guys as postseason caliber pitchers. On the other hand, the Yankees have literally nothing to show for them. I guess it could be worse. The Yankees could have gotten swept by the Twins – the Twins! – or gone 33 straight postseason innings without scoring a run. That would have been really embarrassing. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Mining the news. Every piece of news about the front office audit is sillier than the last. Andy Martino reports the consulting firm will not review the Yankees and how they operate. Instead, the Yankees will review how the outside firm runs their analytics, and then compare it to the way they do things. We’re off to a rousing start this offseason, eh? Here now are a few Yankees-related and Yankees-adjacent nuggets.

Yankees’ draft lottery odds

The Yankees missed the postseason and thus have a chance to win the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft through the lottery. Granted, it’s a very small chance, but it is a chance. Here are the odds for the No. 1 pick:

The Nationals have no odds because they had the No. 2 pick this year, and large market teams can not pick in the lottery in back-to-back years. The highest those teams are allowed to pick in the second year is No. 10, so that’s where Washington will pick. Here is the draft structure:

• Picks 1-6: Lottery
• Picks 7-18: Non-postseason, non-lottery teams in reverse order of standings
• Picks 19-22: Wild Card Series losers
• Picks 23-26: Division Series losers
• Picks 27-28: Championship Series losers
• Pick 29: World Series loser
• Pick 30: World Series winner

The Yankees have a 0.5% chance at the No. 1 pick. I’ve been told they have a 0.5% chance at the No. 2 pick, 0.6% at No. 3, 0.7% at No. 4, 0.9% at No. 5, and 1.1% at No. 6. So that’s a 4.3% chance at a top six pick. They have a 1-in-200 chance at the No. 1 pick and a 1-in-23 chance at a top six pick. Hey, it’s better than the 0% chance they’d have without the lottery.

This year the Twins moved up from No. 13 to No. 5, so moving up significantly in the lottery isn’t impossible. It’s just unlikely. The most likely outcome is the Yankees don’t move into the top six and then get the No. 16 pick through reverse order of the standings. That then gets moved back 10 spots to No. 26 because of their luxury tax status. The Yankees had the No. 26 pick this year.

I should note that, if the Yankees do move into the lottery, those picks are protected, and it would not move back 10 spots for luxury tax reasons. Their second rounder would move back instead. That’s the ideal outcome. Luck into a lottery pick – I’m not greedy, I’d be happy with No. 6 – and then have the penalty applied to the second rounder. Give me a shot at the top tier talent.

The lottery itself will take place at 8:30pm ET on Tuesday, Dec. 5th. That’s the second day of the Winter Meetings and there will be a live MLB Network broadcast. It’s way too early to think about draft prospects. I will instead point you to Jonathan Mayo’s super early 2024 mock draft. You can familiarize yourself with the big names there.

Padres planning to cut payroll

The Padres, who like the Yankees went 82-80 and missed the postseason after going into the season expecting to contend for the World Series, plan to cut payroll into the $200M range next year, according to Kevin Acee. Their spending has outpaced revenue the last few years, plus they have to get back into compliance with the league’s debt parameters. From Acee:

How much the team is bringing in is not a known number, though one highly placed source says the team has doubled revenue since 2018 and others around baseball marvel at the impressive gains. However, the size of the payroll is known, and it has jumped from $104 million in 2018 to the season-ending figure of around $253 million in ‘23.

In part because they are out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio, according to multiple sources, the plan is to go into 2024 with player commitments of around $200 million.

San Diego began this season with a $248.9M payroll ($267M for luxury tax purposes) and cutting down to $200M next year won’t be too difficult. They have roughly $100M coming off the books this winter and Cot’s puts their 2024 obligations at $155.3M. Of course, the Padres will have to re-sign or place Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, and several others.

Also, that $155.3M does not include arbitration raises and the Padres have a big one coming: Juan Soto. For all the chatter about him having a down year, Soto hit .275/.410/.519 (155 wRC+) with 35 homers and more walks (18.6%) than strikeouts (18.2%). He has a career 154 wRC+, so in the end, this was a typical Soto year. He turns 25 in three weeks, by the way.

Soto made $23M this year and he figures to join Shohei Ohtani in the “$30M through arbitration” club next year, his final year of team control. Trading Soto would be a quick way to trim payroll while also adding young, controllable pieces. And also make the team worse. It is basically impossible to replace Soto’s production. The Padres would miss him.

The Yankees badly need an impact lefty hitter and Soto is one of the most impactful lefties hitters in the game, if not the most impactful. Several star players with one year of team control have been traded in recent years. The problem is they were all attached to bad money, so it’s difficult to isolate the trade value of that star player. To wit:

• Mookie Betts: Dodgers took on $48M owed to David Price.
• Francisco Lindor: Mets took on $27M owed to Carlos Carrasco.

Paul Goldschmidt was also traded one year before free agency, though he was in the final year of a team-friendly extension (i.e. not a massive arbitration salary) and that trade was five years ago now. Not sure how relevant it is to Soto. The Betts and Lindor trades would be the perfect Soto trade benchmarks, but the tacked on money complicates things. For argument’s sake:

You drive a hard bargain, Trade Values site, but I think I can make that work. Anyway, Soto is a Scott Boras client and he’s not going to sign an extension, and I’m totally cool with that. These are the Yankees. They can win any free agent bidding war (when they want to). Trade for one year of Soto, see how things go in 2024, then make a long-term decision after the season.

Does it make sense for the Yankees, as currently constructed, to trade a bunch of young players for one year of Soto? I refer you to the Betts, Goldschmidt, and Lindor trades. The team that gets the star player almost always wins these trades. They get the sure thing and the other team takes on the risk with unproven players. The Yankees have to at least call about Soto.

Will they? I’m sure of it. The Yankees call about everyone. Will they aggressively pursue a trade? Eh, I don’t know. It’s a lot of money, even for just one year, and I’m not sure the Yankees have the appetite for giving up prospects and taking on a big money one-year contract. If the Padres make Soto available, I could see the Yankees doing just enough to not get him.

MLB testing new baserunner rule in AzFL

The Arizona Fall League season began earlier this week and, as they do every year, MLB is testing a series of rule changes in the desert. Nothing too crazy this year. They’re tweaking the pitch clock a bit (18 seconds with men on base instead of 20), carving out a clearly defined lane for the runner between home and first, stuff like that.

MLB is also testing a new rule for runners at second base. Remember when the Yankees had their players run through second base on force plays a bunch of times in September? MLB has already come up with a rule to stop that. From Anthony Castrovince:

There will be a rule addressing the recent trend of players running through second base on force plays. The baserunning tactic can allow a run to score from third if the runner can beat the throw by sprinting through the bag, negating the force and delaying the tag for the out. It can also technically create replay review issues in which the runner beats the throw by sprinting and is ruled safe despite having run through the bag. In the AFL, runners not intending to reach and stay on the base safely or advance to the next base will be called out.

This is probably for the best. I’m pro-chaos and this play is chaotic, though there’s risk of a high speed collision and thus injury (Pete Crow Armstrong almost obliterated Ketel Marte a few weeks ago), and I feel like it’s against the spirit of the rules. It’s not against the rules, but this isn’t how the game is intended to be played, you know? Maybe I’m just getting soft with age.

The Yankees did this a few times in September (and it worked!) and it may have been their last chance to do it. MLB’s already testing a rule to stop runners from running through second base and I could see the MLBPA going along with it. The players have been resistant to anything that changes the way they’re used to playing the game. This rule does the opposite. It restores it. Slide into second base like you’ve been doing your whole life and you’re in the clear.

Orioles staying in Camden Yards

And finally, the Orioles have agreed to a new 30-year lease to stay in Camden Yards. Their lease was set to expire Dec. 31st and there had been speculation John Angelos, Peter’s son and the O’s control person with MLB, would try to move the team to Nashville, where he lives. Instead, they’re staying in Baltimore into the 2050s, and possibly longer (there are options in the lease).

I don’t know the particulars of the lease nor do I care. As I understand it, the main sticking point was the use of public funds (surprise surprise) to upgrade and maintain the ballpark. Apparently there are agreements in place where whatever the Orioles get, the Ravens have to get too, and vice versa. They sorted that out and will make the new 30-year lease official at some point.

I haven’t been there since they changed the outfield but Camden Yards is spectacular. It’s easily a top five ballpark for me, probably top two along with PNC Park in Pittsburgh (I’ve been to 18 of the 30 current ballparks and am mostly missing the two Central divisions). I’m glad the O’s are staying. The Rays are getting a new park in 2028 and the Orioles are staying in Camden Yards. Both good news for the Yankees and fans of good ballparks.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Robert asks: Do you think there is any point in hoping for a possible reunion with Jordan Montgomery? Given the continuing questions about Cortes, Montgomery would be a welcome LH addition to the rotation. The stumbling block may be Cashman, not necessarily because he won't want to bring Montgomery back but simply that he will still be the Yankee GM. Over the past couple of years it seems like more and more often players leaving the Yankees express happiness about leaving. And Cashman as GM seems to be the common denominator.

I have Montgomery as the second most desirable free agent starter available this offseason behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though that says as much about the free agent class as it does Montgomery. Here are the top free agent MLB starters by 2023 WAR:

1. Shohei Ohtani: +9.0 WAR (won’t pitch in 2024)
2. Sonny Gray: +5.3 WAR (34 next month, reunion ain’t happening)
3. Jordan Montgomery: +4.3 WAR
4. Blake Snell: +4.1 WAR (led MLB in walks, a chore to watch because of high pitch counts)
5. Aaron Nola: +3.9 WAR (worrisome declines in velocity and strikeout rate this year)

After that top five you’re looking at guys like Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty (and also Clayton Kershaw, who I assume is Dodgers or retirement). Going forward, I’d expect comparable performance from the four non-Ohtanis, and Montgomery is the only pitcher on that list who won’t have the qualifying offer attached (he’s not eligible because he was traded at the deadline).

Much was made about Montgomery throwing more four-seamers after the trade last year – the stupid Yankees had it wrong! –  but that adjustment got rolled back this season because his four-seamer got hammered (.333 AVG and .500 SLG). Montgomery’s sinker heavy again:

At this point Montgomery is what he is, right? He’s steady and dependable and he basically never misses a start, though he’s not particularly exciting and ideally he starts Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series, not Game 1 (though he was terrific Tuesday). Montgomery, 31 in December, is hitting free agency in the right offseason. He’s looking at 4-5 years at $20M per, maybe more.

I don’t expect the Yankees to pursue a reunion with Montgomery and not because they don’t like him or because he hates the organization or anything like that. I just don’t see the Yankees spending big on another over-30 starter. If they give out another $20M+ a year pitching contract, it’ll go to Yamamoto, who is only 25. For better or worse, the Yankees typically build out their rotation three ways (in addition to whoever comes up through the system):

• Big dollars on elite free agents (Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Masahiro Tanaka, etc.)
• One-year contracts for non-elite free agents (Corey Kluber, Hiroki Kuroda, etc.)
• Trade for pitchers with multiple years of team control (Jameson Taillon, Frankie Montas, James Paxton, etc.)

Pitchers in their team control years work on a series of one-year contracts, minimizing the risk. Basically, unless you’re a true top of the market starter, the Yankees do not give out multiple guaranteed years. Montgomery’s very good, but he doesn’t fit into any of those three buckets. He is the kind of mid-range starter the Yankees have avoided signing long-term since A.J. Burnett.

I expect rotation help this offseason will come via big money for Yamamoto, a trade(s) for a younger guy with a few years of arbitration remaining, or cheap free agents, if the Yankees get rotation help at all (they absolutely need it and should). I’m not against re-signing Montgomery. Like I said, he’s No. 2 on my pitching board. I just don’t think the Yankees will go there.

Sam asks: At this point everyone knows about Brian Cashman taking a look at Yamamoto in person, but has there been anything attaching the Yankees to Jung Hoo Lee? I think Lee makes as much sense as anyone for the yankees -- Left-handed hitter, who can hit for average, is athletic, and can play left or center. I've also seen virtually nothing written up (other than by you) about his fit with the Yankees. Your CBS colleague RJ Anderson recently connected him with San Francisco and San Diego. Has there been any smoke about the Yankees-Lee being a thing?

Back in June we learned the Yankees have scouted Lee, the star center fielder of the Kiwoom Heroes, and that’s the only connection we’ve heard to the Yankees so far. R.J.’s heard the Giants are interested and Dennis Lin (subs. req’d) recently reported the Padres are expected to be heavily involved. Joseph Kim, a fan who passes along Korean baseball news, says the Guardians, Phillies, Pirates, and Red Sox scouted Lee throughout the season. I’m sure other teams have as well.

Lee’s season ended in August because of an ankle injury, so perhaps we would’ve heard more about the Yankees having interest had he stayed on the field. Maybe Cashman would have even gone to see Lee while in that part of the world to see Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There is definitely more noise about the Yankees and Yamamoto than there is about Lee, though I will note that we tend to hear more about Japanese players. Korean baseball doesn’t get as much coverage.

Lee turned 25 in August and he finished the season with a .319/.407/.456 (139 wRC+) line with six homers and more walks (12.7%) than strikeouts (6.0%) in 85 games. It was his worst season in several years. A year ago Lee won MVP with a .349/.421/.575 (175 wRC+) line and a career high 21 homers. It’s possible the ankle injury hampered his production this summer.

I’m planning a longer in-depth look at Lee (and Yamamoto) before the end of the month so they're out there before the offseason begins. The Yankees should prioritize both given their ages (both 25) and talent, though this free agent class is very bad, and the bidding war could be intense. Yamamoto in particular is poised to cash in huge. That said: go get him.

Gabriel asks: Mike, just for fun let’s say the A’s are going to Vegas as a new expansion team. You can only protect 15 players on the Yankees. Players that signed 19 or older, less than 3 years service time or have any MLB experience are exempt. You have no free agents next year. Who would they be?

I’ve been sitting on this question since June. Felt a bit out of place to answer it during the season, so let’s do it now. Gabriel’s rules are essentially the 1997 expansion draft rules and it’s important to clarify three years of service time means as a pro ballplayer, not necessarily MLB service time. I’m going to flesh out those rules a little more just to explain them. These players were exempt in 1997:

• Signed at 19 or older, less than three years as a pro, yet to make MLB debut.
• Signed at 18 or younger, less than four years as a pro, yet to make MLB debut.
• Players about to become free agents.

Putting it simply. for our purposes this means college players drafted in 2022 or later are exempt, as are high school draftees or international free agents signed in 2021 or later. That means we don’t have to protect Roderick Arias, Chase Hampton, George Lombard Jr., Brando Mayea, Spencer Jones, Brock Selvidge, and Drew Thorpe, among others. We also don’t have to protect outgoing free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Wandy Peralta, and Luis Severino.

In recent expansion drafts in other leagues (MLS, NHL, etc.), players with no-trade clauses had to be protected. I can’t find any record of MLB requiring that in 1992 and 1997, but I assume they did. In that case, we must protect Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Rodón, and Giancarlo Stanton. That’s six of our 15 protection slots right there. Here’s how I would use the other nine:

Most of those players are self-explanatory, right? All the eligible top prospects plus the most productive young big leaguers. I was on the fence about Cortes (because of the shoulder injuries) and Gleyber (because he only has one year of control remaining), but we need Torres. Losing him for nothing in an expansion draft would be malpractice. A fireable offense.

The last spot came down to Warren and Everson Pereira. Expansion teams tend to hoard young pitching and I’m a little skeptical of Pereira given the swing and miss issues that date back to Double-A, so I kept Warren. I would look to trade Pereira to a team that wants him and is willing to put him on their protection list. Pereira for a prospect(s) not eligible for the expansion draft. That kinda thing. I won’t get full value given the circumstances, but it’s better than losing him for nothing.

Here are the notable players I left exposed:

• Catchers: Kyle Higashioka, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Trevino
• Infielders: Oswaldo Cabrera, Trey Sweeney
• Outfielders: Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira
• Righties: Brendan Beck, Clayton Beeter, Jhony Brito, Scott Effross, Richard Fitts, Domingo Germán, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez, Ian Hamilton, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loáisiga, Ron Marinaccio, Lou Trivino, Randy Vásquez, Greg Weissert
• Lefties: Matt Krook

Leaving Holmes exposed hurts, but a) I just don’t see room for him on the protection list, and b) the Yankees can build bullpens. I have to lose someone and one year of a reliever, even a great reliever like Holmes, is a pill I can swallow. An expansion team has no use for one year of even a great reliever, but they could trade Holmes for 2-3 prospects. I’d look to trade Holmes before the expansion draft, similar to Pereira.

I assume the expansion teams would jump on the young pitching, specifically Beeter or Fitts or Vásquez. You can only lose one player per round though, and don’t sleep on an expansion team taking Trevino (or even Rortvedt). Multiple cheap years of an elite defensive catcher is a nice guy to have when you’re an expansion team with a mostly young pitching staff.

The 1992 and 1997 expansion drafts went three rounds and teams could protect an additional three players after each round. These are the players I’d add, in this order, assuming I manage to find trades for Holmes and Pereira before the expansion draft:

1. Vásquez
2. Trevino
3. Sweeney
4. Cabrera
5. Beeter
6. Fitts
7. Gil
8. Gómez

I think Vásquez, a young MLB-ready arm with all six years of control, would be the first Yankee taken. Regardless, we’re going to lose some young arms. It’s inevitable. We’d still have Hampton, Thorpe, and Warren in the upper levels of the farm system though, plus Schmidt and King in the big leagues. The depth wouldn’t take too much of a hit.

An expansion draft would be a lot of fun to cover, though it’s fair to wonder whether there’s enough pitching to go around. Teams were stretched thin this season and there are some bad, bad teams out there. Add two more teams and what happens? Maybe that’s how we get back to starters going seven innings and away from bullpen games. I dunno.

Bill asks: I'd been thinking about Tim Wakefield for a while, long before learning he was ill. He's one of the few long term Red Sox players I wish had been Yankees (the hell with the rest of them!). Wakefield was incredibly valuable for Boston. In the rotation, spot starts, long relief, pretty much anything but closing. He was like being able to carry one or two additional pitchers on the roster. Teams always have guys in the minor leagues who are motivated and coachable, but don't have the talent to make it in the show. Why not have two or three of these guys each year trying to learn to throw a knuckleball? Almost all of them will fail, surely, but if a team could develop one every five years, they might get a decade worth of mini-Wakefield. I know there aren't a lot of former knuckleballers around to teach it, which means that teams should get started now!

The knuckleball made a comeback this year. Padres righty Matt Waldron made his MLB debut and threw 41.1 innings with a 4.35 ERA (5.46 FIP). He was the first knuckleballer to appear in a big league game since Mickey Jannis got into a game with the 2021 Orioles, though he’s not a full-time knuckleballer. Waldron throws it only 30% of the time.

(George Kirby threw one knuckleball on the last day of the season, in part as a tribute to Wakefield and in part just to mess around in Game 162.)

The knuckleball has been fading for a while now – Ben Lindbergh wrote about this back in 2019 – though this stuff is cyclical. The knuckleball was really big in the 1960s and 1970s, then it was out of style in the early 1990s, then it came back, etc. As far as I can tell, Waldron was the only knuckleball pitcher in affiliated baseball this season, so the pitch is on life support.

Part of the problem is the technology teams use doesn't capture the knuckleball well. Teams haven’t figured out how to master and repeat it, so they don’t teach it. Also, the minor leagues are smaller now, so a) it’s harder to stash someone who is trying to learn a knuckleball, and b) there’s more competition for roster spots. When you’re a fringe guy looking to convert, you don’t have as much latitude to reinvent yourself.

I’m not a knuckleball fanatic and if it goes extinct, it goes extinct. It does seem like something that is going extinct for silly reasons though. It can be effective and it can be taught, but it just isn’t for whatever reason. It’s typically a last resort pitch and fewer minor league rosters spots means fewer opportunities for last resort pitchers.

Anthony asks: Is there a way to determine what pitch is the best pitch in the statcast era? In your opinion, what is the best pitch outside of the statcast era? Best Yankee pitch has got to be Mo’s cutter right?

Statcast calculates run values for each pitch (this pitch is X runs above or below average, etc.) though they only go back to 2019. The best pitch in baseball in 2023? Gerrit Cole’s four-seamer at +29 runs above average. Set the minimum to 50 plate appearances and the best pitch on a rate basis was Joel Payamps’ four-seamer at +5.0 runs per 100 pitches.

Unfortunately there’s no easy way to search combined 2019-23 pitch value leaders, and I’m not gonna spend the time to build the leaderboard myself, so here are the best pitches in individual seasons:

Total Pitch Value
1. Dylan Cease, 2022 slider: +36 runs
2. Gerrit Cole, 2019 four-seamer: +36 runs
3. Lance Lynn, 2019 four-seamer: +32 runs
4. Gerrit Cole, 2023 four-seamer: +29 runs
5. Luis Castillo, 2019 changeup: +28 runs
6. Logan Webb, 2023 changeup: +28 runs

Value per 100 Pitches (min. 50 plate appearances)
1. Tyler Clippard, 2020 changeup: +6.0 runs
2. Devin Williams, 2020 changeup: +5.8 runs
4. Joel Payamps, 2023 four-seamer: +5.0 runs
4. Jesse Chavez, 2021 slider: +4.8 runs
5. Sixto Sánchez, 2020 changeup: +4.7 runs

Given that it sits in two of the top four pitch value spots, I think we can safely assume Cole’s four-seamer has been the most valuable pitch in baseball since 2019. Three 2020 pandemic season pitches in the five of the rate value leaderboard makes me skeptical, but it is what it is. That leaderboard is all over the place each year.

I want to note Art Warren’s 2021 slider is No. 6 on the rate basis leaderboard at +4.6 runs per 100 pitches. The Yankees signed him to a two-year minor league contract last offseason and he spent 2023 rehabbing from elbow surgery. They’ll turn him loose next season. The 30-year-old has a 4.19 ERA (3.75 FIP) with 29.5% strikeouts and 14.2% swinging strikes in 62.1 big league innings. Maybe Warren will be next year’s Ian Hamilton? That’d be cool.

Speaking of Hamilton, his slambio was the second most valuable pitch on the Yankees this year at +13 runs. Cole’s slider was third at +10 runs. Anything over +5 or so is really good. On the other end of the spectrum, Luis Severino’s four-seamer (-14 runs) and slider (-12 runs) were the two worst pitches on the Yankees this year. Also, it’s probably not great that Carlos Rodón’s four-seamer went from +23 in 2021 to +22 in 2022 to -6 in 2023.

Anecdotally, I would say Mariano Rivera’s cutter was the best Yankees pitch of the last 20 years or so, though Rivera was more about surgical precision than big velocity and whatnot. Dellin Betances’ curveball has to be in the conversation. CC Sabathia’s slider, Mike Mussina’s curve, Chien-Ming Wang’s sinker, David Robertson curve … could go on a while here.

Brian asks: I've been reading Joe Posnanski's "Why We Love Baseball" and just read the Mr. November chapter. If the 2001 WS ended after Soriano's homer as it does in my head, who do you think would have been the Yankees MVP of that series?

It would have to be Alfonso Soriano, right? He only went 6-for-25 (.240) in the series, but a) his six hits led the Yankees (!), and b) he had the walk-off single in Game 5 and the would-be game-winning homer in Game 7. A walk-off single and then the series-winning homer are as strong a World Series MVP case as you can make while hitting only .240 in seven games.

The other candidate would be Roger Clemens. He was dominant in the Game 3 win (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K) and excellent in the would-be Game 7 win (6.1 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 K). Two runs and 19 strikeouts in 13.2 innings is fine work. Derek Jeter hit the Mr. November homer but went only 4-for-27 (.148) in the series. Paul O’Neill went 5-for-15 (.333), but didn’t drive in a run and didn’t start two games (Randy Johnson’s starts). Soriano would be my pick, then Clemens.

It was a minor miracle the Yankees had a lead in the ninth inning of Game 7 in that series. They got outscored 37-14 in the seven games and the Diamondbacks had a lead in the ninth inning or later in six of the seven games. For those seven games, the Yankees were the inferior team in every possible way, yet they still almost won a fourth straight World Series. Pretty nuts.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)