September 22nd, 2023: King, Cole, Kiner-Falefa, Mailbag

The tragic number is down to three. Any combination of Yankees losses and wins by the third Wild Card team du jour totaling three will eliminate the Yankees from the Wild Card race. They’ve been out of the race for weeks, but soon it will be official, and we won’t have to listen to the YES Network booth pretend there’s still a chance. Anyway, let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees didn’t do an especially good playing spoiler this week. They dropped the first two games of the Blue Jays series and scored one run in each game. Toronto is a game up on a Wild Card spot. The Yankees will try again to ruin their season next week at Rogers Centre. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few games.

The new No. 2 starter

The list of things we can take out of this season and feel good about long-term is extremely short, but Mike King is on it, if not at the top. Killer Mike was marvelous Wednesday: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 13 K on 101 pitches (video). Because the rest of the roster stinks, the Yankees lost the game by five, but that doesn’t subtract from King’s performance.

“(Bullpen coach Mike) Harkey told me, ‘Treat it like it’s seven one-inning bullpen outings,’” King told Bryan Hoch after the game. “That’s actually been a good transition piece for me. I feel like I’ve continued to evolve, and I’m hoping that the audition is successful.”

King got multiple swings and misses on all four pitches (sinker, four-seamer, slider, curveball) and 40% of his pitches went for a called strike or a swing and miss, which is as good as it gets (the league average is 27.6%). King held the Blue Jays to an 81.8 mph average exit velocity. That’s the fourth lowest in a game by a Yankee this season (min. 10 balls in play).

The 13 strikeouts are the most by a Yankee this year and the most by a Yankee since Gerrit Cole struck out 14 Twins last Sept. 7th. The last Yankee other than Cole to strike out 13 batters was Masahiro Tanaka on Sept. 29th, 2017. He fanned 15 Blue Jays that day. King’s last five starts have been terrific (he was on a pitch limit in the first four of these):

That’s a 39.5% strikeout rate and a 2.0% walk rate in 25.2 innings, and a .240/.253/.292 batting line against as a starter. During this little experiment, King the starter has somehow been better than King the reliever. He’s held his velocity both in general and deep into his starts, and there hasn’t been a decline in stuff. It really is reliever Mike King, just for more innings.

King has made seven starts this season, though the last five are most instructive because they’re the starts he’s made on a normal five-day routine. King’s first two starts were kinda weird because he pitched out of the bullpen between them. The last five starts are King working as a true starting pitcher, with time to prepare and gameplan between starts and everything. He’s a smart guy, the kind who will put that time to good use, and it sure looks like he has so far.

“I’m very thankful,” King told Hoch. “I know I had opportunities in 2020 and 2021, but I felt like I didn’t capitalize on them. I also feel like getting on a full five-day routine is great, knowing that I’m starting on the fifth day. I’m very thankful for Boone to allow me to do that.”

Doing it for 30 starts across a full season is much different than doing it for a handful of starts in September, but King has aced this audition, and absolutely should come to Spring Training as a starter next year. Maybe the long season proves too much and he fades in July or August. He has been so good though that the Yankees have to try it. King has been a revelation as a starter and has earned a longer look in that role in 2024.

“He certainly feels like he can do this, from a starting standpoint,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “I think he’s showing everyone that he’s certainly capable of (starting). Now the next step is, can he do it full time in 150, 180 innings as a starter?”

(My pal R.J. Anderson wrote more about King’s move into the rotation earlier this week, before he struck out 13 Blue Jays.)

Cole’s Cy Young chase

Unless the Yankees use Monday’s off-day to rearrange the rotation or there are weather issues (more on that in a bit), Gerrit Cole has one start remaining this season. Thursday night, in his final Yankee Stadium start of 2023, Cole took a perfect game into the sixth inning and fired eight marvelous innings: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K on 107 pitches (video). A Cy Young race update:

“It hit me when he was walking off in the eighth and I knew he was done,” Boone said when he asked whether it felt like Cole wrapped up the Cy Young on Thursday (video). “And being his last home regular season game, it popped in my mind, for sure.”

Cole reached 200 innings Thursday and part of me hoped Boone would pull him with two outs in the seventh just to make sure Cole walked off to a big ovation, but finishing at 200 innings on the nose is pretty cool too. His league leading ERA is down to 2.75. The last Yankee to throw 200 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA was Andy Pettitte in 1997 (2.88 ERA).

Baseball Reference won’t update until after I schedule this post, so here is the AL pitching WAR leaderboard heading into Thursday’s game:

1. Gerrit Cole, Yankees: +6.4 WAR
2. Sonny Gray, Twins: +5.1 WAR
3. Kyle Bradish, Orioles: +4.3 WAR
4. Shohei Ohtani, Angels: +4.0 WAR (done for the season)
5. Framber Valdez, Astros: +4.0 WAR

None of the other four guys pitched Thursday and Cole’s start against Toronto will nudge him into the +6.7 WAR range. Regardless of the exact number, there’s a big gap between Cole and Gray, and I will again note the league leader in bWAR has won 10 of the last 14 Cy Youngs (and been the runner-up on two other occasions). bWAR is the best single-stat Cy Young predictor out there right now.

Realistically, there’s nothing Cole can do in his final start next week to lose the Cy Young. That final start might be five and fly too. Let him throw his 80 pitches, then pat him on the behind and call it a season. Cole has been brilliant this year and Thursday might’ve been his finest start of 2023. The Yankees have stunk overall, but watching Cole every fifth day has been a delight.

"That was special for me," Cole said about walking off the Yankee Stadium mound for the final time this season (video). "I love pitching at home in front of our fans – we have a lot of fans on the road too – there's just something about having good nights in the Bronx. It doesn't get much better than that."

Weekend weather

Mother Nature could be very annoying this weekend. There’s rain in the forecast pretty much all day Saturday and Sunday, and the Diamondbacks play in Chicago on Monday, so there’s no common off-day. MLB handles all weather decisions this late in the season and they will make the Yankees and D’Backs wait as long as necessary. If first pitch is at 11pm ET, so be it.

We’ll see how the forecast changes over the next 48 hours, but right now, a postponement looks possible, if not two. And, because the D’Backs are in the Wild Card race, these games matter. MLB will cancel makeup games that have no bearing on the postseason race (every so often you see a team with 161 games played). They wouldn’t be able to do that here though.

Because there’s no common off-day, the only solution is dragging both teams back to New York and playing the makeup game(s) on Monday, Oct. 2nd. That’s the day after what’s supposed to be the final day of the regular season. Could you imagine that? A Yankees team out of the race having to play a doubleheader the day after the season was supposed to end? Oy vey.

The Yankees have to come home from Kansas City anyway, but the D’Backs would have to fly all the way back to New York from Arizona for an Oct. 2nd makeup game(s). Obviously neither team wants that. MLB will make them wait out delays as long as necessary this weekend, but the rain may not provide a playable window (even for a five-inning game).

As someone who gets to just sit and watch, tacking an extra day onto the season and giving us a little more baseball would normally be a-okay with me, but I’m ready for this season to be over. A rainout this weekend would be a nightmare. Not much we or the Yankees or the D’Backs can do other than hope for the best. You are forewarned though. The forecast is ugly.

(If they do have to play Oct. 2nd, Cole would lineup to pitch that day on normal rest. Would the Yankees really start him? They might not have a choice with limited September call ups. Let's see how the weekend goes before we think about this.)

The winning season streak

The Yankees came into the week needing to go 6-6 in their final 12 games to extend the winning season streak to 31 seasons, and now they need to go 5-4 in their final nine games. Also, they have to win at least once this weekend to clinch a winning record at Yankee Stadium. They’ve had a winning record in the Bronx every year since 1992.

Even if the home and overall winning season streaks continue, the Yankees are having their worst season since 1992. That’s true regardless. It’s just a question of whether they can hang their hat on keeping those streaks alive. I hope they do it. I can't root for the Yankees to lose.

Miscellany

I have a Giancarlo Stanton deep dive on my to-do list for October – how can a player who hits the ball this hard be this bad? – but yeah, this is very bad. Stanton’s down to .188/.273/.421 (88 wRC+) in 399 plate appearances, which puts him in the worst player in baseball conversation given the negative defensive and baserunning value. I feel like his (lack of) speed gets too much attention. The .188/.273/.421 (88 wRC+) batting line is the problem, not being unable to beat out double plays … Congrats to Austin Wells for his first big league homer (video). Like a true 2023 Yankee home run, it was a solo shot with the Yankees down six in the ninth inning. That’s mean. It’s not his fault the Yankees stink. Anyway, Wells has swung the bat better lately. He crushed a few balls to dead center in Pittsburgh, then he parked his first homer halfway up the second deck. A strong finish from the rookie catcher would be welcome … Everson Pereira has a minor hamstring injury and has not played since last Thursday. Eight days ago now. It is literally a 10-day injured list. Playing short-handed this long would bother me more if the Yankees were in the race, but it’s still dumb … And finally, Wandy Peralta is dealing with a triceps issue, which is why he hasn’t pitched since last Thursday. With free agency coming up, the Yankees should do the right thing and shut him down, and not risk further injury in meaningless games. Selfishly, I hope we haven’t seen the last of Magic Wandy in pinstripes though. He’s as fun as relievers get with his quick pitches, funkiness, and fearlessness. Last year's ALDS performance was legendary.

2. IKF at all nine positions. The Yankees have nine games remaining and thus only nine more chances to play Isiah Kiner-Falefa at all nine positions in a single game. He absolutely could do it. Kiner-Falefa has already played every position except first base in the big leagues, so you’re not asking him to go embarrass himself at a bunch of unfamiliar positions. He’s capable.

Kiner-Falefa can do it and he seems like the type who would enjoy doing it, so the only question is whether the Yankees will let him do it. Five players in history have played all nine positions in a single game. The five:

• Sept. 30th, 2019: Andrew Romine, Tigers at Twins
• Oct. 1st, 2000: Shane Halter Tigers vs. Twins
• Sept. 9th, 2000: Scott Sheldon, Rangers at White Sox
• Sept. 22nd, 1968: César Tovar, Twins vs. Athletics
• Sept. 8th, 1965: Bert Campaneris, Athletics vs. Angels

Ideally the Yankees would do it this weekend. Announce you’re doing it a day or two ahead of time and make it an event for the home fans. The Bleacher Creatures could give Kiner-Falefa a roll call at his new position each inning. That said, the Diamondbacks are in town and they’re in the middle of a very tight NL Wild Card race. I think it’s important to respect the integrity of the race, and not do something this gimmicky during the D’Backs series.

The Yankees go to Toronto next week and that’s out too given the AL Wild Card race. So, next weekend in Kansas City is the best and really only time to do it. The Royals are 51-102 (yeesh) and the Yankees will be eliminated by then. The Yankees could do it in the meaningless Game 162 and bring a little levity to the end of an otherwise disappointing season. I don’t see a good reason not to do it. Do you?

The new September call up rules complicate things. In the past, you could sub players in and out as necessary. Now you only have so many bodies on the bench, and with the Yankees, two of their five bench guys are catchers. It can be done by moving players around though. It’s tricky, but it’s doable. Here, I saved the Yankees the trouble and mapped it out (full-size image):

Giancarlo Stanton (or Ben Rortvedt) would have to DH the entire game, otherwise stalwart veterans DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and Gleyber Torres come out fairly early and get off their feet, which is a common “last day of the season” move. We’re not doing any wacky out of position stuff either. Anthony Volpe has to play an inning at second base (he played some second in the minors) and one of the catchers has to finish the game at first. Nothing too crazy.

Now, none of the three catchers on the roster have played first base professionally. Not even in the minors. The Yankees are supposedly planning to work Austin Wells out at first base, though I’m not sure what’s going on with that. You’ve got a few days to give a catcher a crash course. One of them could handle two innings at first base, right? How hard could it be?

Last month I was asked a mailbag question about Kiner-Falefa playing all nine positions during the course of the entire season, and I haven’t been able to get the idea of him playing all nine positions in a single game out of my head since. He’s the right player at the right time, and it would be a fun way to end a season that has mostly been dull and frustrating. Do it, Yankees. Don’t be boring.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees continue to scout Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring, Brian Cashman’s top lieutenant, is in Japan now to watch Yamamoto, according to Erik Boland. This comes two weeks after Cashman and senior advisor Omar Minaya were in Japan. Boland says trusted pro scouts Brandon Duckworth and Jay Darnell, as well as pro scouting director Matt Daley, have all made trips to see Yamamoto this year. The Yankees have sent basically everyone whose voice carries weight to see the right-hander at some point. This goes beyond the usual due diligence. The Yankees are preparing an aggressive pursuit. Will they get Yamamoto? I have no idea. He has the final say in the matter. But the Yankees have done their homework and then some.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Alejandro asks: I know, I know. My trade proposal sucks, but do you have any thoughts on targeting Jazz Chisholm this off season? The Marlins might be down to trade him as there are all kinds of rumors about him being an issue in the clubhouse. They desperately need middle infielders, an elite reliever or two, and offense. Is a Peraza, Holmes, Jones for Jazz trade an awful idea?

Last June manager Don Mattingly held a team meeting because apparently some players didn’t like Chisholm’s showboaty style. I haven’t seen anything about any complaints since, and honestly, being flashy and pimping home runs and all that isn’t anything that worries me. That’s not a serious clubhouse issue. Certainly nothing to scare me away.

As for Chisholm the player, he’s good and also flawed. He’s a career .245/.304/.450 (103 wRC+) hitter who strikes out a ton (career 28.9%) and is hurt often (has played 273 of 477 possible games since 2021), though his lefty power is real (27 homers per 600 plate appearances), he steals bases (22-for-25 this year), and he may or may not have turned himself in a good defensive center fielder (-8 DRS and +5 OAA). Does the good outweigh the bad?

The strikeout and injury issues are not great, but the Yankees could definitely use a player with Chisholm’s lefty pop, speed, athleticism, and energy. This team is so boring. They really need someone to come in and liven things up, and Chisholm can do that. Then again, how long until the Yankees corporate machine drills it out of him? Can Chisholm be the same player (or get better) if you don’t let him be himself?

Jazz turns 26 shortly before Spring Training and he’s under team control through 2026, so three years away from free agency. The Trade Values site says Oswald Peraza alone is an overpay for Chisholm, and Alejandro’s proposed Peraza/Clay Holmes/Spencer Jones package is a massive overpay:

The thing is, this is probably the kind of package it’ll take to get Miami’s attention. There are no indications they want to move Chisholm, their best and most dynamic position player, and something tells me “the algorithm says our unproven shortstop alone is fair value” won’t grab their attention (though we know Miami wants Peraza). You’re gonna have to bowl them over.

I see Chisholm as a hypothetical. The Yankees could use his lefty bat and speed and center field defense, but I don’t think the Marlins are open to moving him. Maybe in a year or two as he gets more expensive through arbitration and closer to free agency. Right now, I think the Marlins plan to keep Chisholm and try to win with him, Luis Arraez, Sandy Alcantara, and Eury Pérez in 2024.

Daniel asks: Scanning rosters for potential under-the-radar matches, I came across Nolan Jones. Big power lefty bat who plays 1B and OF, high draft pedigree, big exit velo #s. Potential fit for the 2024 roster instead of a 200m Bellinger?

I’m not exaggerating when I say Jones is the one positive development for the Rockies this year. He’s a multiple time top 100 prospect who never got much of a chance with Cleveland (two full years in Triple-A and only 28 MLB games), and the Guardians shipped him to the Rockies over the winter for a good but not great infield prospect (Juan Brito) who was in Single-A at the time.

Colorado called Jones, 25, up in late May and he’s been a mainstay since, hitting .286/.374/.524 (125 wRC+) with 17 homers, including a 109 wRC+ at Coors Field and a 140 wRC+ on the road. Power has always been his thing, but no one was sure where he’d wind up defensively. Jones has made his way from third base to first base to the outfield in pro ball and he's capable out there.

The Rockies did very well buying low on a post-hype prospect (the Rockies getting one over on the Guardians? dogs and cats living together???) and Jones looks like a mainstay now. You never really know what Colorado will do, though I suspect they will lock Jones up to a long-term deal rather than trade him. I don’t think he’s really available, so this is all hypothetical.

And, hypothetically, Jones is really good fit for the Yankees need. The strikeouts are a concern (30.0%), but he offers left-handed power (17 homers), walks (11.8%), speed (17-for-19 stealing bases), and defense (+8 DRS in left field). And he’s under team control through 2028. Coors Field complicates things, but plenty of others have left Colorado and remained very good hitters (Nolan Arenado, Matt Holliday, DJ LeMahieu, etc.).

Jones is the type of player we hope Spencer Jones becomes, right? A lefty with power and some stolen bases, and good outfield defense. Would the Rockies be open to a Nolan for Spencer one-for-one Jones trade? The Trade Values site says that’s nowhere close to fair value – it says the Yankees would have to add a Chase Hampton or Austin Wells caliber prospect – but it is the Rockies. They are always open to doing something weird.

I think Jones is the kinda player the Yankees need, meaning young, athletic, and good at baseball. Will the Rockies make him available, and if they do make him available, will the asking price be realistic? Who knows. I think they’re more likely to keep Jones and extend him than trade him, but this is a player the Yankees should call about.

David asks: Are you sold on Volpe as the LT answer at SS? His pattern in the minors was to struggle for 4-8 weeks after promotion, but then figure it out and rake. He’s gotten worse as the season’s progressed in the majors. The K rate is sky high and he has little to no plate discipline or pitch recognition. He looks more like a Javy Baez to me than our answer at short.

I don’t think the Báez comparison is fair at all. Anthony Volpe has underwhelmed this season – .209/.284/.388 (86 wRC+) is objectively bad, even for a rookie shortstop – but his plate discipline is miles ahead of Báez’s. They aren’t in the same galaxy, nevermind the same ballpark:

Volpe is vulnerable to sliders away and fastballs up, which makes him like countless others, and those are holes he must work to close. He hasn’t had much sustained success this year. Every 2-3 week hot streak is followed by a 4-5 week cold streak, and he’s in a cold streak right now: .135/.208/.227 (21 wRC+) with 27.8% strikeouts in September. Volpe has been terrible lately.

To answer the question, I guess I have to say no, I’m not sold on Volpe being the long-term shortstop. Perhaps it is more accurate to say I am no more sold on him being the long-term shortstop today than I was coming into 2023, which is pretty bad after he spent a full season on the job. Volpe never really got better this year. He stayed at the same level.

Volpe is a rookie who essentially skipped over Triple-A, and C.J. Abrams and Bobby Witt Jr. show you should be patient with talented young shortstops, even when they initially struggle. We have to call a spade a spade though: .209/.284/.388 (86 wRC+) is bad. The defense has been good, but there are two sides to the game, and Volpe has performed poorly on one of them. The Yankees hoped he would show they were smart to pass on all those free agent shortstops and he hasn’t (yet).

Of course, part of the problem is the Yankees themselves. I have little confidence in them getting the most out of a young hitter (or even a veteran hitter) at this point. That’s not a Volpe problem, but it is a problem related to Volpe. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they expected more out of Volpe this season. He’ll be the shortstop next year, but we still don’t know if he’s a legit cornerstone, or just someone who plays short while you look for someone better.

Mark asks: Do you think the NYY emphasis on hard hit rate is misplaced and responsible for the poor performance of NYY lineups in the last couple years? Since the recent Astros series, when Houston’s lineup repeatedly worked deep at-bats against NYY pitching, I’ve been wondering when things started to go wrong with the Yanks’ hitting philosophy. We were once the team that regularly fouled off pitches and worked opposing hurlers’ pitch counts into the 90s by the 4th inning. It seems that the emphasis on hard-hit rate has something to do with this. For example, in seeking HRs, a player like Volpe often strikes out in ABs where if he took what a pitcher gave him, he’d hit the ball the other way for a single. In Buster Olney’s piece on the Cubs lineup, he seems to offer a relevant example re Cody Bellinger, which I think is another reason for NYY to sign him, as he’d help restore the team’s hitting philosophy.

It seems like every young player the Yankees call up these days takes their A swing at all times, no? They all take giant hacks geared to generate the hardest possible contact. The kinda swings that used to be reserved for 2-0 or 3-1 counts. The result is a lot of hard contact and also a lot of swing and miss. No one has anything resembling a two-strike approach*.

* The two exceptions are DJ LeMahieu, who seems to use a two-strike approach every pitch, and Gleyber Torres. Gleyber with two strikes and Gleyber earlier in the count are very different hitters. With two strikes, Torres clearly shortens up and prioritizes contact.

I don’t think the emphasis on hitting the ball hard is misguided – that’s the goal, right? the harder you hit the ball, the more likely it is to go for a hit – I just think the Yankees are going about it in a bad way. It seems like they’re instilling a one-track mindset. Go hit the ball hard, and the rest will work itself out. Don’t adjust to how the pitcher is attacking you. Swing hard in case you hit it.

To be clear, I don’t know whether this is true. I’m just saying that, based on the eye test, the Yankees collectively have one swing and one approach. It’s max damage at all times no matter the hitter, the pitcher, the count, the game situation, and that seems to be true at both the MLB and minor league levels. Hitting the ball hard is good, but it can’t be the only tool in the shed.

As for Bellinger, he is the kinda hitter the Yankees needed (left-handed, high contact, has power, etc.), though I’m not sure the solution is go sign a specific hitter. The offensive approach is an organizational problem that starts with the instructors and coaches, and what they’re teaching. The Yankees develop Statcast stars, not well-rounded big league hitters, if that makes sense.

Dan asks: So Shohei Ohtani had elbow surgery and is expected to be available as a hitter by opening day.  Since Jasson Dominguez had the same thing, could he begin the year in triple A as a DH and continue to get AB's while he recovers enough to get back into the outfield?

Ohtani had his elbow surgery Tuesday and the statement made by his agent and the doctor was carefully worded. They said the surgery was to “reinforce the healthy ligament in place while adding viable tissue for the longevity of the elbow.” That implies Ohtani had the internal brace procedure, not full blown Tommy John surgery, and the internal brace has a shorter rehab.

Domínguez had surgery as scheduled Wednesday and the Yankees announced he had both Tommy John surgery and the internal brace, so they put in the new ligament and reinforced it. That’s the new thing, doing both. They called it a 9-10 month recovery, so figure a June or July return. It’s more or less the same timetable as Didi Gregorius and his elbow reconstruction.

Because he needed a more invasive and more complicated surgery than Ohtani, Domínguez won’t be ready to hit in games come Opening Day. He will be able to hit before he throws, that’s the normal rehab progression, but the start of the minor league season is probably too soon. Figure we’ll see him show up in Low-A Tampa’s lineup and start playing rehab games sometime in May.

A crappy thing about Domínguez’s injury is we didn’t learn much about him before he got hurt. Yeah, he mashed, but anyone can have a good week. I mean, Franchy Cordero had a good week in April. How would Domínguez have fared the rest of September? Is he truly ready, or does he need another couple hundred Triple-A at-bats? We didn’t get a chance to find out.

My sense is the Yankees will plug Domínguez right back into the big league lineup as soon as he completes his rehab next year. I don’t expect them to rush him back as a DH only like Ohtani and Bryce Harper – he’s 20! let the kid rehab properly, no need to rush this – but once he’s ready to go, he’ll be back in the Bronx, and then we’ll find out whether he’s truly MLB ready.

Alessandro asks: Do you think there is a world where Ohtani takes a 1-year DH contract as he recovers from the elbow procedure, then tries to cash in once his elbow is fully healed next year? If so, the Yankees should be all in on a 1-year $40 million offer for him.

That would surprise me. Realistically, Shohei Ohtani’s value and earning potential can only go down from here. There are two possibilities in 2024:

1. Mash at the plate while elbow rehab goes perfectly.
2. Literally anything else, and all of it is worse than (1).

Ohtani could have a great year at the plate but hit some bumps in the road with his rehab, he could not hit as well as this year but have a smooth rehab, etc. Feels like there is a lot more that could go wrong to hurt his earning potential next year than there is stuff that could go right to earn him even more money. Ohtani’s still looking at $300M+ this offseason, easy.

Also, the big money one-year contracts aren’t really a thing anymore. The new model is Carlos Correa’s previous contract with the Twins (or Trevor Bauer’s contract with the Dodgers). A big money 2-3 year contract with opt outs. Ohtani is more likely to take, say, three years at $45M per year with opt outs after Years 1 and 2 than a straight one-year contract. He’ll sign that planning to opt out next offseason, but also have that little insurance policy in his back pocket.

The elbow surgery will cut into the contract offers, no doubt, but this is still Ohtani’s best chance at a massive long-term deal. Maybe he’ll only get $400M instead of $500M. I dunno. But his next contract is going to be big, and it may include opt outs and all that. A straight one-year contract feels like a non-starter. Ohtani would be selling himself very short and assuming a ton of risk.

Brian asks: Spencer Jones is already in AA, is it realistic that we see him in the majors next year? Starts in AA and if it's going really well, a quick promotion to Scranton. I could also see the Yankees punting on a legit free agent outfielder and saying getting Jasson back plus promoting Jones would be like trading for someone. Obviously a lot had to go right but that feels realistic, no?

Next season seems pretty aggressive to me. Then again, I thought starting Jones in High-A this year was aggressive, as was calling up Jasson Domínguez after a week in Triple-A. Every player is different. Some need a lot of minor league reps and others can zoom through the system. There is no one size fits all player development strategy. They all need individualized plans.

I think Jones, given his size and swing-and-miss issues, falls into the “he needs a lot of minor league reps” category, similar to Aaron Judge. Does Judge become the player he is today without spending nearly three full years in the minors? Yeah, maybe, but the player he is today is like a 99th percentile outcome. Change anything about Judge’s development path and the most likely outcome is a worse player, not a better (or even equal) one.

Anyway, I think Jones needs close to a full season in Double-A next year. If he comes out of the gate well and shows real improvement with his contact ability, particularly against breaking balls, then the Yankees can shift gears and move him more quickly. Declining to add outfielders (plural) this offseason because they expect Jasson Domínguez to be back in June and Jones to arrive later in the year would be a colossal mistake.

Harrison asks: Pretend you have a true two-outcome player: every plate appearance results in either a home run or a strikeout. How many home runs would the player need to hit to be considered league average? How many to justify a Stantonian-esque contract?

Assuming 600 plate appearances, 88 home runs would give our two true-outcome player a .147/.147/.587 batting line and a league average .734 OPS. And also an 85.3% strikeout rate. He’d give you one homer every seven plate appearances or so, which is a bit more than one every other game, and a whole lot of empty at-bats in between.

Giancarlo Stanton has four years and $128M remaining on his contract (the Marlins are playing $30M). At $9M per WAR, he needs to be worth +14.2 WAR across the four years to be worth the money. Assuming our hypothetical player is a DH and plays at a neutral home ballpark, he needs to average 108 home runs per 600 plate appearances to get to +3.6 WAR, according to this old WAR calculator. Four years at +3.6 WAR equals +14.4 WAR total, and 108 homers per 600 plate appearances equals a .180/.180/.720 slash line.

This two true-outcome player would not have a job. It’s impossible to hit enough homers to make up for all the outs and empty at-bats. Maybe if he were, say, the best defensive catcher in baseball history, some teams would entertain it, but there is a minimum acceptable standard on offense and this guy wouldn’t reach it. Even with 60 homers, he’s a negative to the team.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)