August 29th, 2023: Pereira, Peraza, Wells, Domínguez, Judge, Cole, Severino, Kahnle, Donaldson, Yamamoto

Vacation’s over and thankfully my COVID symptoms went away pretty quickly, and I was able to get in a few days of R&R at the end of last week. Now it’s time to run out the clock on this turd of a season. The only question now is can the Yankees extend the winning season streak? Seems unlikely, but I’m foolishly holding out hope they’ll find a way. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. The kids, promoted. After getting swept at home by the Red Sox last weekend, it seemed inevitable the Yankees would do something to shake up the roster, and a mild shake-up followed: Everson Pereira and Oswald Peraza were called up, Greg Allen was released, and Billy McKinney was placed on the injured list with a back issue. Pereira has started every game since being called up, Peraza all but one.

“You can develop and win at the same time,” Brian Cashman told Gary Phillips last week. “We’re trying to do both.”

Neither Pereira nor Peraza has stood out yet – Pereira is 3-for-26 (.115) with a double and Peraza is 2-for-20 (.100) since being recalled – though it’s only been a week, and the important thing is the Yankees say the two will remain in the lineup unconditionally. They won’t get benched for poor performance or because someone else is playing well and needs at-bats (Peraza was not in the lineup Monday after taking a pitch to the hand Sunday).

Pereira performed very well with Triple-A Scranton, hitting .312/.386/.551 (130 wRC+) with eight home runs in 35 games. His hard-hit ability rivals any non-Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton player in the organization, though his plate discipline and ability to elevate the ball must be refined. The Triple-A numbers support that:

• Exit velocity: 92.8 mph (Triple-A average: 87.6 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 45.8% (Triple-A average: 36.6%)
• Barrel rate: 18.8% (Triple-A average: 17.4%)
• Ground ball rate: 47.9% (Triple-A average: 42.7%)
• Chase rate: 27.3% (Triple-A average: 27.0%)
• Swinging strike rate: 18.2% (Triple-A average: 12.2%) (misses per total pitches)
• Contact rate: 63.6% (Triple-A average: 73.2%) (contact per swing)

We’ve seen it in his short MLB stint too. Pereira in his limited time has a 34.3% chase rate, a 21.5% swinging strike rate, and a 50.0% ground ball rate. He’s also hit a ball 111.8 mph, which is something Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, José Ramírez, and dozens of others have not done this season. Pereira has lived up to the scouting report thus far.

As for Peraza, he hasn’t performed in any of his big league stints this season, and last year’s .306/.404/.419 (146 wRC+) line was propped up by a .304 BABIP on grounders (MLB average is .245 BABIP on grounders). Even his .268/.357/.479 (106 wRC+) Triple-A line is underwhelming considering the offensive environment down there, and the fact he was repeating the level.

Still, Peraza is a gifted defender and the Yankees are out of the race, and Anthony Rizzo’s injury creates an opening on the infield. Their options are play DJ LeMahieu at one corner with a) Jake Bauers at first, b) Isiah Kiner-Falefa at third, or c) Peraza at third. Bauers isn’t a long-term piece and Kiner-Falefa’s a few weeks away from free agency. Of course they should go with (c).

Are Pereira and Peraza auditioning for 2024 jobs? Yes. I mean, what else would you call this if not an audition? At the same time, Oswaldo Cabrera shows the perils of putting too much stock into a sub-200 plate appearance late season cameo, and Anthony Volpe shows even the most touted prospects can need a full season (or more!) to find themselves at the MLB level.

The important thing is Pereira and Peraza are up and playing. Peraza should have been up much sooner given Josh Donaldson’s injuries and ineffectiveness, but better late than never. The Yankees crashed out of the postseason race and are doing the right thing by giving two of their top young players a look. Maybe they perform, maybe they stink. Only one way to find out.

Now that I’ve said what I have to say about Pereira and Peraza, here are a few more thoughts on the kids and call up possibilities.

Is Wells next?

Before we move forward, I have sad news to pass along: Austin Wells got caught stealing last Wednesday. Former big leaguer Aramis Garcia (Phillies organization) threw him out. Up to that point Wells was a perfect 55-for-55 stealing bases at all levels dating back to his freshman year at Arizona. He’s now 55-for-56. Too bad. Pour one out for Wells’ stolen base streak.

Anyway, the attention shifted to Wells as soon as Pereira and Peraza were called up – how quickly we start asking about the next shiny new toy, eh? – and he is hitting .263/.353/.475 (104 wRC+) in 31 games with Triple-A Scranton. He went 8-for-34 (.235) with no homers in his first nine games, and is 23-for-84 (.274) with five homers in his last 22 games.

“A guy with a lot of potential,” is how Aaron Boone described Wells to Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) last week. “... Not a finished product. Still really behind the plate working to make strides, and has made strides this year.”

The case for a call up goes like this: Wells has to go on the 40-man roster* after the season anyway, and a September look-see gives him a taste of the show and lets him see what he has to work on. He comes up, sees what’s what, then goes to work in the offseason. It’s easier to work on things over the winter than in-season. That’s why Pereira’s call up is so valuable.

* The Yankees have a ton of 40-man flexibility right now. They have an open spot after releasing Allen, Nestor Cortes is a 60-day injured list candidate, and others like Bauers, McKinney, Matt Bowman, Franchy Cordero, and Anthony Misiewicz are easily droppable. Lack of 40-man space is no excuse.

The case against a call up says Wells just got to Triple-A last month, and catchers have a much steeper learning curve than players at other positions. He’s barely caught his breath in Scranton. The RailRiders are two games out of a postseason spot and their season runs through Sept. 24th. There are a lot of meaningful games to be played down there.

Also, teams only get one extra position player spot in September. Are the Yankees really going to use it on a third catcher when none of the three can play another position? They’re giving Ben Rortvedt a look now – he’s started 13 of the last 26 games – and there are only so many innings behind the plate to go around. Keeping Wells in Triple-A may be best for him and also Rortvedt, and thus the organization in the big picture.

We don’t know much about Wells defensively. The Yankees insist he can catch, people outside the organization are skeptical, and we have no insight into his framing skills because there’s no Statcast at Double-A and Triple-A uses the automated strike zone. What we do know is Wells is 15-for-115 (13%) throwing out base stealers this year, which is very bad.

The Yankees can say whatever they want about Wells as a catcher. We’ll know how they truly feel when he comes up. They insisted for years Jesus Montero could catch, yet when he came up in 2011, he was at DH night after night. Playing time is the ultimate tell. It tells you how much teams truly believe in a player, particularly the Yankees and particularly at catcher.

I think the Yankees are planning to keep Wells in Triple-A the rest of the season. If I’m wrong and he comes up in September, great, that would be fun. I think he’s gonna stay down there and catch everyday though, and McKinney (or Rizzo?) will conveniently be ready to come off the injured list when rosters expand Sept. 1st. I think we’ll have to wait until next year for Wells.

(For what it’s worth, Boone said the Yankees intend to get Wells work at first base at some point. Should’ve happened a while ago, but better late than never. “We also feel like he continues to make really good strides as a catcher. We want to keep that development progression going, especially as he’s climbing levels,” Boone told Greg Joyce over the weekend.)

What about Jasson?

When Pereira was called up, Jasson Domínguez was promoted from Double-A Somerset to Triple-A Scranton in a corresponding move, and he is 11-for-23 (.478) with two doubles, a triple, four walks, and two strikeouts through seven games with the RailRiders. It was a tale of two halves for Jasson in Double-A:

(Since Aug. 1st, Domínguez is hitting .402/.466/.618 (189 wRC+) in 116 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. Sheesh.)

Domínguez needed two months to settle in, then he finished his Somerset stint very strong. I wouldn’t sweat the decline in walk rate at all. It was still above average in his final 54 games – the Eastern League averages are 10.8% walks and 24.7% strikeouts this year – and we’re talking about a 20-year-old in Double-A. Consider:

• Domínguez was the youngest position player in the EL by eight months.
• He is nearly four years younger than the average EL player.
• Despite being promoted a week ago, he still leads the EL in walks.
• He’s ninth in the EL in OBP and six of the eight ahead of him are age 24+.
• He hasn’t faced a single pitcher younger than him all season.

Domínguez isn’t Juan Soto – Soto hit .282/.401/.548 (143 wRC+) as a second year big leaguer when he was Domínguez’s age – but he had a very strong season as a 20-year-old in Double-A. The early hype was unfair and set unrealistic expectations, and Domínguez won’t ever be good enough for some people because of it. The kid is really, really good though.

“We saw some really good trends in his second half of the year in Double-A,” minor league hitting coordinator Joe Migliaccio told Joyce (subs. req’d) last week. “I think what a lot of the credit to that goes to is Jasson not pushing the emergency button and thinking he needs to change his stance, he needs to change this mechanic, he needs to change this way he trains. He has a true, really quality, optimal, professional routine that he executes daily.”

Personally, I think calling Domínguez up in September would be very aggressive (counterpoint: I don’t know how many more Harrison Bader at-bats I can stomach). I also think the Yankees are going to call him up. Maybe not right when rosters expand Sept. 1st (i.e. Friday), but at some point in September. Maybe once they’re officially eliminated and they shut Judge and his injured toe down? I dunno when, but I think a call up will happen before the year is out.

Domínguez has to go on the 40-man roster in the offseason, so there are no concerns there, plus a call up would be a) a reward for a very good season, and b) a chance for him to get his feet wet and see what’s what. I will say it again: there’s a lot of value in getting a taste of the show, seeing what adjustments you have to make, and then making them in the offseason rather than on the fly next year.

I do think calling Domínguez up would be aggressive. We’re talking about a 20-year-old who lost his age 17 season (a crucial development year) to the pandemic, and a kid with minimal Triple-A time. I mean, it wasn’t long ago that we were wondering what’s wrong with Domínguez in Double-A, right? He’s well ahead of the usual developmental curve as it is and a call up seems aggressive to me, but what do I know. Regardless, I think he’ll be up at some point.

“I can’t give you (an answer) one way or the other, whether that’s realistic or not,” Cashman told Kuty (subs. req’d) about a possible Domínguez promotion. “But he’s obviously doing what he’s doing, and pushing his way closer to the big leagues is a good thing. And he’s doing it at a very young age. So we’re excited about that.”

(A few days after Domínguez was promoted to Triple-A Scranton, Spencer Jones was promoted to Double-A Somerset. The Yankees’ top three outfield prospects each moved up a level.)

Is any pitching coming?

To put it another way, will Randy Vásquez replace Jhony Brito, and will Clayton Beeter get called up in September? Will Warren doesn’t have to go on the 40-man roster until next year and I don’t see the Yankees making that move yet. If they were in the race and Warren was the best option to help the MLB team, sure, but they’re not, so no need to tie up a 40-man spot now.

Vásquez is eligible to come back Thursday – he started for Triple-A Scranton on Saturday, so he lines up perfectly to pitch Thursday – and he could replace Brito as Mike King’s piggyback then, and I’d be in favor of that. Brito’s a decent enough depth arm. Vásquez has a better chance to be a long-term piece and he’s impressed in his limited big league action. The Yankees are trotting out young position players. Seems wise to give Vásquez more MLB innings too*.

* Vásquez has thrown 102.2 innings between Triple-A and MLB this season. He threw a career high 129 innings last year, Double-A postseason included, so he’s one of the few young pitchers with innings still to give this time of year. Don’t waste those bullets in Triple-A.

Beeter’s had a tough time in Triple-A (5.32 ERA and 6.16 FIP) but every pitcher has had a tough time in Triple-A this season. He’s already well over his previous career high innings (106.1 this year after 77 last year), and if the Yankees do call up Beeter, I think it’ll be for a few innings at the end of the season rather than to make regular starts in September. We’ll find out eventually.

Teams can only carry one extra pitcher in September and that spot will be a revolving door. Ron Marinaccio is having a real hard time with the automatic strike zone in Triple-A (8.2 IP, 5 H, 8 R, 12 BB, 8 K), so he might not be the token September call up. Maybe these will be the moves?

• Tuesday at Tigers: Mike King starts and Jhony Brito piggybacks
• Wednesday at Tigers: Brito sent down and Nick Ramirez called up
• Thursday at Tigers: No moves
• Friday at Astros: Randy Vásquez summoned as the September call up

Marinaccio will probably cycle through at some point in September. Point is, the new rules took all the fun out of September call ups, and that extra pitching spot will just be an extra revolving door spot, not a prospect who will stick around all month. Vásquez will be back at some point. Maybe Beeter shows up too. That’s probably it as far as pitching prospects go though.

2. Weekend thoughts. Brian Cashman came out of hiding last week (that’s not fair, Cashman faces the music much more than most GMs) to discuss the state of the Yankees. It was the usual CashmanSpeak, meaning a lot of words were spoken but very little was said. He called the season a disaster, said every aspect of the organization will be evaluated, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda. If you’ve seen one Cashman press conference, you’ve seen them all. The only difference is the Yankees are bad now, so the message is a little different. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Judge for three

Two things are true. One, I think the Yankees should shut Aaron Judge down so his toe can heal and he has as much runway to prepare for 2024 as possible. The Yankees are out of it. They’re not playing for anything now. The sooner Judge is shut down, the sooner he begins the healing process, and the sooner he begins his normal offseason work. I don’t want to hear about him being brought along slowly in February because of lingering soreness, you know?

And two, I love watching Judge punish baseballs and I’m happy I still get to do that, even with the Yankees out of the race. The Judge-less Yankees are a snoozefest, so while shutting him down may be the best thing for the 2024 Yankees, it would make the rest of the 2023 season very dull. Real pickle here. Ultimately, it’s out of my hands, and Judge will continue to play.

“You still got a chance, I’ve got to be out there. If I can play, I’ve got to be out there,” Judge told David Lennon last week when asked about possibly shutting it down for the season. “We really haven't discussed much about any further plans. It got to a point where I can play. Now let's play and hopefully have a late push here and see what happens.”

Punish baseballs Judge did last Wednesday, when he had his first career three-homer game (video). He hit three home runs and then was left on deck in the ninth inning, so he never got a chance at a fourth. "I joked with him. I said, 'I remember my first time,’” Kyle Higashioka, who had a three-homer game in 2020 (video), told Gary Phillips.

"He would always remind me every game I'd have two and I couldn't get the third, that 'Hey, one of these days kid, you'll join my club,’” Judge told Phillips about Higashioka ribbing him. “So that was the first person I was looking forward to seeing once I got back in the dugout.”

Judge also went deep in his first at-bat Thursday, giving him four home runs in the span of five at-bats. He’s the first Yankee to homer four times in five at-bats since who? Giancarlo Stanton? Alex Rodriguez? Roger Maris? Nope. Gio Urshela. Here are the Yankees to hit four homers in the span of five at-bats within the last 50 years, per Katie Sharp:

• Aaron Judge: Aug. 23-24, 2023
• Gio Urshela: Aug. 7-8, 2019
• Paul O’Neill: Sept. 9-10, 1998
• Reggie Jackson: Oct. 16-18, 1977 (World Series)

Between the hip and toe injuries, Judge missed 54 games earlier this season, which is exactly one-third of the 162-game schedule. Despite that, Judge is still fifth in the American League with 29 home runs. He has 29 homers in 333 plate appearances. That pace is 61 homers per 696 plate appearances (last year’s total). Judge is doing it again. Incredible.

I love watching Judge play baseball (even when he goes 0-for-Tampa like this past weekend) and I’m happy I get to do it even though the toe injury is always in the back of my mind. No use in getting worked up over something I can’t control. I’m looking forward to watching Judge these final 31 games, and if the Yankees decide to shut him down at some point, so be it. And if they don’t and the toe gives him trouble in Spring Training, I’ll complain about it then.

(Monday night the YES Network broadcast noted Judge has 249 career home runs, and as long as he hits No. 250 within the next 48 games, he’ll be the fastest to 250 career homers in history. Just lol.)

Cole’s Cy Young chase

Shohei Ohtani’s unfortunate injury started a conversation about Judge possibly repeating as MVP, but come on. Judge isn’t winning MVP. He’s on a last place team and he missed a third of the season, plus Ohtani is still playing (as a hitter). Everyone is focusing on the wrong award here. Ohtani’s injury helps Gerrit Cole’s Cy Young chase, not Judge’s MVP defense.

Following Friday’s masterful outing in Tampa, Cole leads the American League in innings (168), ERA (2.95), and ERA+ (145), and he’s top five in just about everything else (strikeouts, WHIP, wins, etc.). Last week I noted the league leader in Baseball Reference WAR has won 10 of the last 14 Cy Young awards, and was the runner-up on two other occasions. Here is the AL pitching bWAR leaderboard entering Monday:

1. Gerrit Cole: +5.1 WAR (leads all pitches, not just AL pitchers)
2. Sonny Gray: +4.2 WAR
3. Shohei Ohtani: +4.0 WAR (won’t pitch the rest of the season)
4. Nathan Eovaldi: +4.0 WAR (hasn’t pitched since July 18th and is not ready to return yet)
5. Framber Valdez: +3.5 WAR

Luis Castillo (+3.2 WAR) and Kevin Gausman (+2.4 WAR) are also in the conversation, though Shane McClanahan (+2.6 WAR) is no longer. He had Tommy John surgery last week. Three or four weeks ago the Cy Young race was Cole vs. Eovaldi vs. McClanahan vs. Ohtani. Cole is the last man standing there, and the door has opened for Castillo, Gausman, and Gray.

“It would be unbelievable,” Cole told Bryan Hoch about possibly winning the Cy Young. “So many people put hard work into it. It would be a blessing to represent the organization with that award and to represent the hard work that’s gone on behind the scenes, from the catchers and pitching staff to the coaching staff and everybody that’s an advocate for me and pours into me.”

(Orioles closer Félix Bautista was getting talked up as a dark horse Cy Young candidate, mostly by people covering the O’s, but his recent injury takes him out of the running.)

With the season being what it is, the Yankees will have to strike a balance between Cole’s Cy Young chase and not overworking their ace in September. No one wants him to win it more than his teammates and the organization, and they’ll do what they can to help him. But they also can’t run him into the ground in a lost season (and they won’t). Cole’s Cy Young chase is one of the few reasons to keep watching this year. He’s in great position with a month to play.

“As long as we’re not in the danger zone – and we’re not even close – I’ll pitch,” Cole told Dan Martin last week. “... As a professional, whether you’re in first place or eliminated, there’s a certain standard you should hold yourself to, regardless of the rest of your environment.”

Sevy’s strong start

This has been a disastrous season for Luis Severino, both on the field and for his upcoming free agency. Severino’s injuries and decline have been, by far, the biggest bummer of the Judge era to me. From 2017-18, this dude was electric, and his starts were must watch television, much like Cole’s are now. Severino was the long-awaited homegrown ace.

In the middle of this nightmare season, I’m glad Severino was able to pitch well against the Nationals last week (6.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K) and walk off the Yankee Stadium mound to a standing ovation. He’s had a difficult year and I’m happy he got that moment of joy. Severino doesn’t use Twitter much, but he tweeted out a thank you to the fans afterward.

“Like I’ve said before, I know the stuff I have and I know the pitcher I can be,” Severino told Betelhem Ashame after that start. “I just need to continue to do little adjustments, trusting my stuff again, having confidence in myself, and I know good things are going to happen. I’ve heard a lot of boos, so it’s a good thing to have those fans cheering for me.”

It seems unlikely the Yankees will re-sign Severino – a fresh start elsewhere seems best for all involved – and, at this point, I’ve stopped wondering whether he’s salvageable. If he figures it out and has some good starts down the stretch, great. If not, well, the Yankees are out of it, so what difference does it make? Severino figures to be some other team’s reclamation project in 2024.

Still, I want to see him do well, because Severino at his best is an awful lot of fun. He was great Monday against the Tigers (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K) and hopefully this means a turnaround is coming. It’s too late to save the 2023 Yankees, but an effective Severino would make these last 31 games a bit more fun, and it would set him up better going into free agency. Go Sevy.

Kahnle’s changeup problem

A month ago I said Tommy Kahnle is throwing his changeup too much and he’s still throwing it too much. He’s already given up five home runs on his changeup this season – he allowed five homers total on the pitch during his heyday from 2015-19 – including three in his last three outings. Kahnle has thrown 75% changeups this year and it’s Too Damn Much.

Devin Williams, the best changeup reliever in the sport, throws his Airbender roughly 56% of the time and that’s a lot. Raisel Iglesias, another reliever with a great changeup, throws his only 37% of the time. When he was at his best in 2019, Kahnle was 50/50 fastballs and changeups, and even that is heavy changeup usage. 75% changeups is basically unheard of.

The Yankees have had success with the “throw your best pitch a lot” philosophy (Clay Holmes and his sinker, etc.) but when you’re throwing your 89 mph changeup that much, you’re not changing up off anything. You’re just throwing 89 mph fastballs. There are diminishing returns when you throw your changeup as much as Kahnle is this year. We’re seeing it.

This is on the catchers and the coaching staff as much as Kahnle too. Ultimately, he throws the pitch and he’s caught too much of the plate with his changeup lately, but it is past time for an adjustment. The coaches and catchers have to help with that, and also Aaron Boone has to stop leaning on Kahnle in high leverage situations. He’s blown too many games lately. I know he’s not throwing 98-99 mph anymore, but hitters are telling Kahnle he has to throw more fastballs.

“It seems guys are starting to catch on that that’s my go-to pitch. I’m going to have to make an adjustment and go from there,” Kahnle told Martin last week. “... In the big leagues, guys are gonna adjust and I’ve got to adjust with it.”

On the end of two streaks

For all intents and purposes, the recent nine-game losing streak iced the season. The Yankees were a manageable four games behind the third Wild Card spot before the first loss. Following the ninth loss, they were 9.5 games back, which is pretty much insurmountable given where we are in the season and the quality of the teams ahead of the Yankees. It is what it is.

The nine-game losing streak was the Yankees’ longest since 1982. Every other team has had a nine-game losing streak since 2004, and the Mets now have the longest “drought.” They last lost nine straight games in Sept. 2005. Here is every losing streak of at least nine games in Yankees history (not counting the Highlanders years). There’s only seven of ‘em:

1. 11 games: May 26 to June 6, 1913
2. 9 games: July 29 to Aug. 5, 1916
3. 9 games: Aug. 11-18, 1945
4. 9 games: June 21 to July 1, 1953
5. 9 games: Oct. 1, 1972 to April 9, 1973 (last five games in 1972 and first four of 1973)
6. 9 games: Sept. 13-21, 1982
7. 9 games: Aug. 12-22, 2023

That 1972-73 streak doesn’t really count because it spanned two seasons, but yeah, only once before in their history did the Yankees have a longer losing streak than the nine-gamer earlier this month. They went 41 years between nine-game losing streaks. That’s the longest gap in history by any team, ditto the ongoing 110-year (!) drought without a double-digit losing streak.

The streak within the streak – the inception streak – was the Yankees going 61 innings without a lead at one point during the nine-game losing streak. The Yankees took a 2-1 lead in the top of the second inning in the first game in Atlanta on Aug. 14th, the Braves answered with three runs in the bottom half, and the Yankees did not have a lead again until Judge’s first inning homer against the Nationals on Aug. 23rd.

Going 61 innings without a lead – nearly seven full games! – is honestly incredible. Weird things happen and you can lose nine straight games. The Dodgers won 104 games in 2017, yet at one point that summer they lost 16 of 17. Catch some bad breaks and you can lose a lot in a short period of time. But 61 innings without even holding a lead? That means you got dominated.

Here are the longest streaks without holding a lead in franchise history, again excluding the Highlanders years:

1. 62 innings: Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, 2000
2. 61 innings: Aug. 14-22, 2023
3. 55 innings: Sept. 17-23, 2000
4. 55 innings: Sept.16-28, 1968

The 61-inning streak was the second longest in Yankees history but what stands out is the No. 1 and No. 3 streaks on that list came in rapid succession (and during a World Series year!). The Yankees went 55 innings without a lead from Sept. 17-23 in 2000, then they had a lead on Sept. 24, and then they went another 62 innings without a lead. That 2000 team really limped to the finish. Imagine going through that September in the social media era?

The nine-game losing streak is over and the 61-inning leadless streak is over. In all likelihood, the winning season streak will end this year as well. The Yankees need to win 19 of their final 31 games to have a winning season and this team has won only 19 of its last 51 games. That’s too bad. I can’t say I will miss the 2023 Yankees when the season is over.

Miscellany

Two home runs for DJ LeMahieu on Friday (video). It was his first two-homer game since May 7th, 2021, and it was his first ever two-homer game with two pulled homers (he only has seven career two-homer games, so not a huge sample). He has four homers in his last six games after hitting four homers in his previous 71 games. LeMahieu is hitting .315/.420/.495 (158 wRC+) in the second half after hitting .220/.285/.357 (78 wRC+) in the first half. If we project player performance onto the coaches, LeMahieu is pretty much the only Yankee responding to the hitting coach change. “I relate to (Sean Casey) really well. Just great, positive energy, a great guy and a good guy to talk hitting with,” LeMahieu told Erik Boland over the weekend … Anthony Volpe’s quest to become the first Yankee to play all 162 games since A-Rod and Hideki Matsui in 2005 is over. He sat out Saturday’s game, and unlike the other eight times he was not in the starting lineup, he did not come off the bench. The new goal: 150 starts in the field. Volpe has not DHed once and he can max out at 153 starts in the field this season. The last Yankee to start 150 games in the field was (who else?) Robbie Canó in 2013. He started 153 games at second base (and six at DH) that season … And finally, Everson Pereira is wearing No. 80. Probably not a keeper, right? That’s a placeholder and he’ll get a lower, more permanent number next season. Pereira is the first player in Yankees history to wear No. 80 though. A few weeks ago Keynan Middleton became the first Yankee ever to wear No. 93. The Yankees are down to four numbers that have never been worn: 00, 87, 94, and 96. 96 is a good number. They should give that to Jasson Domínguez.

3. On Donaldson. Over the weekend Josh Donaldson (and Anthony Rizzo) took live at-bats at the minor league complex in Tampa. Donaldson can not be activated off the 60-day injured list until Sept. 14th (I previously said Sept. 15th, but I miscounted), though clearly the calf is healing well. Aaron Boone said Donaldson could begin a rehab assignment soon.

“Yeah, he’s working towards a potential rehab assignment sometime soon. It’s definitely a possibility,” Boone told Greg Joyce over the weekend. “... He’s getting close to being in a rehab situation and he’s doing all the work to put himself in that position.”

I would not get worked up about this. The Yankees have turned the page on the season and are giving young players a look. I have a hard time believing they’ll bring Donaldson back. They’ll probably designate him for assignment as soon as they activate him off the injured list, Willie Calhoun style. Boone is saying the only thing the manager can say in this situation.

I have to ask though: why don’t the Yankees release Donaldson now? You can release injured players – the Athletics did this with Garrett Acton a few weeks ago – and I’m not being an anti-Donaldson jerk here. There are valid reasons to do it. Consider:

• The postseason roster eligibility deadline is 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31st. That’s Thursday.
• A team is more likely to sign Donaldson if he’s postseason-eligible, right? I think so.
• His new team would assume the prorated portion of the league minimum of his salary.

The Yankees would still owe Donaldson the remainder of his $21M salary this season plus the $6M buyout of his 2024 club option after they release him, though that prorated portion of the league minimum is subtracted from their obligation. The minimum is $720,000 this season, or $3,870.97 per day. That’s $120,000.07 for the final month of the regular season.

That’s $120,000.07 in real money the Yankees could save. Add in the luxury tax the Yankees would pay on that sum (90% tax rate given their payroll), and it’s really $228,000.13. That’s a lot of money! I mean, it’s a drop in the bucket for the Yankees, but $228,000.13 is a lot of money. And if no team signs Donaldson, so what? The Yankees are right back where they are right now.

Looking through depth charts, the Brewers and Phillies stand out as contenders that could use help at third base. Philadelphia has played Bryce Harper at first base some, though he’s mostly DHed, and their usual alignment is Alec Bohm at first and Edmundo Sosa at third, or Jake Cave at first and Bohm at third. Bohm at first and Donaldson at third is probably an upgrade, right?

Anyway, the point is the Yankees should release Donaldson now rather than wait until he comes off the 60-day injured list. The sooner they release him, the more they save if he signs elsewhere, and another team is more likely to sign him if he’s postseason eligible. That deadline is Thursday, so the Yankees have to release Donaldson soon to make this happen. The Rockies released Jurickson Profar over the weekend for this exact reason.

The Yankees stuck with Donaldson far too long but I would be very surprised if they bring him back in September. Like I said, they’ve turned the page on the season and are playing kids, plus they put Donaldson on the 60-day injured list when they probably didn’t need to. They’re done with him, and they should release him sooner rather than later. There’s a decent sum of money to be saved. (Look at me looking out for Hal Steinbrenner’s wallet.)

4. Yankees have scouted Yamamoto. According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees were among the teams to scout Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s start last week (five strikeouts in seven scoreless innings). Erik Boland says director of pro scouting Matt Daley was there (among others), and adds it was not the first time the Yankees had eyes on Yamamoto this year.

Nothing official yet, but there is a “strong belief” the Buffaloes will post Yamamoto this offseason. He turned 25 earlier this month and is no longer subject to the international bonus rules, so the timing makes sense. Yamamoto has a 1.34 ERA with a 26.0% strikeout rate in 134 innings this season. That’s in a league with a 20.2% strikeout rate. He has a career 1.77 ERA.

Earlier this year Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Yamamoto the second best non-MLB prospect in the World Baseball Classic, behind only Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki (Sasaki is only 21 and is not expected to be posted for another few years). Here’s a snippet of their scouting report on Yamamoto (here’s video):

Yamamoto won the Sawamura Award, the Japanese Cy Young award, each of the last two seasons and led Japan to a gold medal as its top starter at the Tokyo Olympics … Yamamoto is undersized at 5-foot-10, 176 pounds but features a deep, powerful arsenal he holds deep into games. His fastball sits 93-96 mph with riding, cutting life and his splitter is a plus-plus offering with huge depth he can land in the strike zone or bury for chase swings. He mostly overwhelms batters with those two pitches, but he also has a curveball, slider and cutter that are all above-average to plus. Yamamoto is durable despite his size with a fast arm and a clean delivery. He aggressively pounds the strike zone with above-average control and has a good feel for mixing his pitches. Yamamoto projects to be a No. 2 or 3 starter in MLB.

FanGraphs says Yamamoto is “polished and talented in equal measure” and would “immediately slot into the middle of a contending rotation with no. 2 starter upside and therefore comfortably fits among the top 30 or so prospects in MLB.” Yamamoto is either the best or second best pitcher in the world outside MLB. It’s either him or Sasaki. Take your pick.

The Mets gave Kodai Senga five years at $15M a pop last offseason, though he turned 30 in January. Yamamoto will play most of next season at 25. The age difference is massive and Senga’s contract isn’t really relevant to Yamamoto. The more relevant contract is Masahiro Tanaka’s. The Yankees gave Tanaka seven years at $22.1M per year soon after his 25th birthday.

Factor in inflation – can you believe it’s been almost 10 years since the Yankees signed Tanaka? – and the crummy free agent class, and Yamamoto can reasonably demand more than Tanaka’s contract. Maybe 7-8 years at $25M annually? Perhaps with an opt out after Year 3 and/or 4 so he can go back into free agency at age 28 and/or 29? That doesn’t seem crazy to me.

(Seven years at $25M per season is $175M total. The posting fee is based on the size of the contract and a $175M contract would net Orix a $28.125M posting fee. The posting fee does not count against the luxury tax payroll, though it will be a nice chunk of real money.)

The upcoming free agent class is loaded with landmines behind the now injured Shohei Ohtani. It’s a lot of good but not truly great players who will get great player money anyway because where else are teams supposed to spend their dollars? GMs will throw around contracts they know won’t age well because chances are the bad years at the end will be someone else’s problem.

Other than Ohtani, I think the two best free agent targets for the Yankees are players with zero MLB experience: Yamamoto and Korean outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee. Lee is coming off a major ankle injury, so there is some uncertainty there, but these are two 25-year-olds at positions of need (lefty hitting center fielder and high-end starter). Lee and Yamamoto might be the best and smartest investments this winter.

As with Lee, I will note the Yankees scouting Yamamoto doesn’t mean a whole lot because they scout everyone. That said, the Yankees have only seriously pursued two Asian players since the Kei Igawa fiasco: Tanaka and Ohtani. Both were stars in their mid-20s, not already 30 like Senga. Yamamoto (and Lee) could be right up the Yankees’ alley given his youth and pedigree.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)