March 3rd, 2023: LeMahieu, Shortstop, Loáisiga, Breaux, Wells, Kiner-Falefa, Mailbag

Me last Friday: Woo hoo Spring Training games are a day away! Me this Friday: Can we get to the regular season already? Happens every year. Grapefruit League games are fun in their own way, but I’m already itching for games with stakes. Only three weeks and six days until Opening Day. Let’s get to today’s post as Wandy Peralta strikes a dude out in 20 seconds.

1. Grapefruit League observations. Spring Training games are indeed fun in their own way, and one of those ways is watching unknown players do cool things, like non-roster catcher Carlos Narvaez swatting a walk-off homer Wednesday (video). Cool moment for Narvaez, who hit .194/.327/.383 (98 wRC+) with High-A Hudson Valley last year. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

LeMahieu’s debut

DJ LeMahieu’s health is a major storyline this spring and his Grapefruit League debut Wednesday was encouraging. He lined a single to the wall in his second at-bat. It was a terrible pitch from breakout pick Jordan Weems, who hung a slider that spun right into the middle of the zone:

That pitch should be hit hard and LeMahieu did hit it hard: 107.9 mph. LeMahieu did not hit a ball that hard in the final nine weeks of last season, dating back to Aug. 5th in St. Louis. He spent a few of those weeks on the injured list, sure, but it covers 119 plate appearances and 90 batted balls. That single is on par with LeMahieu’s best contact the last few years.

One hit is just one hit, but LeMahieu putting a ball in play in his first spring game harder than anything he hit the last two months of last season is really encouraging. His hard-hit ability dried up last August because the toe injury prevented LeMahieu from rotating his back foot properly. He couldn’t get his legs into his swing. It was all arms. We’ll see how the next few weeks go. For now, an encouraging sign in LeMahieu’s first Grapefruit League game.

“It’s awesome to be back out there,” LeMahieu told Bryan Hoch. “I feel great. It’s just exciting to be out there with the guys again.”

The shortstop competition

We are less than a week into the Grapefruit League season and a pattern has already emerged with the shortstop competition: Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Oswald Peraza are starting most games and pairing with the big league second basemen, the guys they must build a rapport with as the double play combination. The starting middle infields thus far:

• Saturday (road): Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Gleyber Torres
• Sunday (home): Oswald Peraza and Gleyber Torres (split squad)
• Sunday (road): Anthony Volpe and Jesús Bastidas (split squad)
• Monday (home): Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Anthony Volpe
• Tuesday (road): Oswald Peraza and Gleyber Torres
• Wednesday (home): Isiah Kiner-Falefa and DJ LeMahieu
• Thursday (road): Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe*

* Gleyber was scratched from Thursday’s lineup because he had dental work done.

Volpe has made just one start at shortstop and it was in a split squad road game. If this is truly an open competition, you gotta give the kid some starts at short, Yankees. Perhaps they will in the coming weeks, Opening Day is still a month away, but it seems like this is a two-horse race between last year’s shortstop and the closest to MLB shortstop prospect. Who woulda thunk it?

“I might get him in at third later this week,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce about Volpe, referring to playing him at another position that is not shortstop. “But I know in talking with (infield coach Travis Chapman), they feel good about him at second base and that he’s done all the reps. In his mind, he’s prepared himself for that coming into this camp to be ready for any possibility.”

(Volpe went deep Thursday (video). He hit it against actual big leaguer Mitch Keller. Keller added a sinker last May and pitched to a 3.20 ERA (3.54 FIP) with 0.62 HR/9 in his final 21 starts. His breakout has flown under the radar a bit because he’s on the Pirates. Anyway, go Volpe. You know what to do, Yankees. #VolpeningDay)

Kiner-Falefa and Peraza have alternated starts at short, which implies an equal opportunity to win the job, though it might have more to do with it being so early in camp. Almost no one plays back-to-back days the first week of exhibition games. Gleyber’s done it only because he leaves for the World Baseball Classic soon and he asked for extra reps at second (he’s expected to DH for Venezuela because they have Jose Altuve at second).

No one in camp has more than 12 plate appearances yet and I honestly don’t have the slightest idea who’s hitting what (MLB.com’s stats page seems to be missing data, particularly on the defensive side). It’s irrelevant at this point. The only important thing we’ve learned thus far is Kiner-Falefa and Peraza are getting the lion's share of the starts at short. Volpe is lagging in opportunity.

“I don’t know if there’s a criteria or a checklist. Performance matters but it’s not everything. You try not to get too bogged down with ‘this guy hit .320 in spring,’” Boone told Joyce about the shortstop competition. “Hopefully you’re making the best decision moving forward as far as trying to project in the short-term and in the long-term. There’s a lot of things that go into that evaluation. It may be that one guy just makes it very clear to all of us that it’s obvious. Performance in that certainly matters and is a thing, but you try not to get too carried away results-wise with the Spring Training stuff.”

Upcoming games

We’ll only be able to watch the Yankees twice in the next five days. Two of their next four games won’t be televised and Tuesday’s an off-day. After that though, five straight days of the Yankees on your screen. Here’s the schedule between now and Tuesday’s post:

• Friday vs. Tigers: no broadcast (6:30pm ET)
• Saturday vs. Rays: YES Network (1pm ET)
• Sunday at Braves: no broadcast (1pm ET)
• Monday vs. Pirates: YES Network (6:30pm ET)

Gerrit Cole will make his Grapefruit League debut Friday and so will Mike King, according to Erik Boland. It’ll be his first game action since breaking his elbow last July 22nd in Baltimore. There’s no broadcast for that one, but at least we’ll get Statcast data and can check up on King’s velocity and whatnot, and see whether he resembles the guy we saw last year.

Carlos Rodón threw a bullpen session Thursday and might start Sunday, though it sounds like he may throw live batting practice again rather than make the 90-minute road trip. As long as he’s pitching and getting built up, it’s fine. A veteran guy like him knows what he needs to do to prepare for the season. If we don’t see Rodón in a game within, like, two weeks, then it’s a red flag.

Nestor Cortes (hamstring) will throw live batting practice Friday and as long as it goes well, he’ll get into a game next week. Friday’s session would line him up to pitch Wednesday (Cardinals) or Thursday (Red Sox), which are both home games. If Cortes pitches one of those days, I would bet it's Wednesday to avoid letting an AL East rival get a look at him.

As for the outfield, Aaron Judge is going to play left field “sometime probably next week,” Boone told Joyce. Giancarlo Stanton expects to play the outfield sometime next week too. I gotta think we’ll see Judge and/or Aaron Hicks get time in center field at some point, just in case they need to do it during the regular season. Would the Yankees put Oswaldo Cabrera in center? Methinks only in an emergency.

Miscellany

Jonathan Loáisiga made his Grapefruit League debut earlier this week and all went well with the pitch clock. He is one of the slowest workers in baseball, so much so that Baseball Savant uses him as an example of a pitcher with a slow tempo, but he had no trouble Wednesday. Threw a pitch, got the ball back from the catcher, got back on the mound, threw the next pitch with a few seconds to spare. Piece of cake. Maybe things will be different in a high leverage situation in a game that counts, but there were no apparent issues in the first look … Domingo Germán pitched well in his Grapefruit League debut Wednesday (2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K). His fastball averaged 93.4 mph. Last year his heater sat 92.7 mph. That’s promising. Germán’s velocity was down noticeably after his offseason shoulder injury last year … Yoendrys Gómez, my No. 23 prospect, looked good Wednesday (3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K), and his fastball averaged 94.7 mph. As Josh Norris notes, Gómez’s heater averaged only 93 mph following his non-Tommy John elbow surgery last year. Looks like he’s healthy and some velocity has returned. Good sign as Gómez enters his final minor league option year … And finally, Jeff Nelson has done every YES Network game thus far and I enjoy him in the booth. He gives off a 1990s Jim Kaat vibe. I assume the Spring Training workload means we’ll see him in the regular season more often now that Carlos Beltrán and Cameron Maybin are no longer with YES. I hope so. Nelson’s a good listen.

2. Breaux and Wells injured. We aren’t even a full week into the Grapefruit League season and already the upper level catching depth has taken several major hits. Ben Rortvedt will miss the start of the regular season after having surgery to treat an aneurysm near his shoulder. Now Josh Breaux and Austin Wells are going to miss time as well.

Wells, my No. 6 prospect, has a fracture in his 12th rib and will be shut down 7-10 days. He expects to miss 6-8 weeks, putting him on track to return in mid-to-late April. The injury was initially diagnosed as a bone bruise. Wells resumed working out last week, the soreness came back, and the Yankees sent him for more tests. Could the bone bruise have become a fracture because of the workout? I have no idea. Doesn’t matter now.

“Just a freak thing. I all of a sudden was like, ‘that doesn’t feel very good.’ Then over time it got better, got worse, got better, got worse. I think just all the moving around, trying to get back into it, and then after two weeks of it, not really getting better, we wanted to get more imaging done. So this time it showed up,” Wells told Greg Joyce. “Who knows, it could have happened within the last two weeks. It could have happened a little bit and then it came to fruition towards the end.”

Breaux fell out of my top 30 prospects this year and he missed nearly three months with elbow trouble in 2019. He will be shut down from throwing for a week or two. I suppose he could return relatively soon as long the injury is nothing major. With elbows though, who knows. Breaux has a cannon arm (he hit 99 mph as a pitcher in junior college) and it is his best defensive tool by a mile.

“A few days ago he was feeling stuff throwing,” Aaron Boone told Max Goodman. “I think he’s shut down for another week or two throwing-wise, and then hopefully it’ll be ramped up from there.”

The Yankees are down three – three! – upper level catchers. We know Rortvedt and Wells will miss the start of the regular season. Breaux’s timetable is a bit more uncertain. He could miss the start of the season too. If that is the case, the Opening Day catcher depth chart now looks like this:

• MLB: Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka
• Triple-A: Rodolfo Durán and I guess Mickey Gasper? (Breaux and Rortvedt hurt)
• Double-A: Anthony Seigler and Carlos Narvaez (Wells hurt)
• High-A: Antonio Gomez and Ben Rice
• Low-A: Agustin Ramirez and Alex Guerrero

Gomez is a top 30 prospect, Seigler was a top 30 prospect back in the day, Ramirez is a sleeper, and the rest are organizational depth guys. Gasper has played most of his career at first base, though he was drafted as a catcher and has caught 29 games the last two years. RailRiders stalwarts Rob Brantly and Max McDowell left as free agents a few weeks ago and the Triple-A catching situation immediately went in the tank. Go figure.

Higashioka leaves for the World Baseball Classic in a few days. Once he heads out, you could easily argue the Yankees will be without four of the five best catchers in the organization. Not great! Boone told Chris Kirschner the Yankees will bring catchers over from minor league camp once Higashioka leaves. I mean, they kinda have to, right? At that point the only healthy catchers in big league camp will be Durán, Narvaez, Trevino, and Seigler.

The Yankees should sign a catcher. Ideally it would be someone with MLB experience, but a minor league journeyman similar to McDowell (the No. 3 guy in Scranton the last two years) would work too. They’re a foul tip away from having a backup catcher who had a .266 OBP in Double-A last year (Durán). The Yankees could put Isiah Kiner-Falefa behind the plate, but eh. He’s caught 73 games at the MLB level (none since 2019) and was bad at it. There’s always this option too:

Gary Sánchez remains unsigned but a reunion ain’t happening, especially after his agent blamed the Yankees for Gary’s career stalling out. That bridge has been burned. Sánchez is miles better than any other presently available catcher, but I think the Yankees would sooner start Durán in the World Series than bring Gary back. If they sign a catcher, they should do it soon so he can familiarize himself with the pitching staff before Opening Day.

As for Wells, the injury might delay his arrival in the Bronx, though I’m not sure he was going to make his MLB debut this year anyway. The Yankees are sticking with him as a catcher and his glove still needs work. Wells might be able to reach the big leagues later this summer as a first baseman or DH, but he’s not a first baseman or DH. Doing so as a catcher is a taller order.

A delayed start to the season shouldn’t have a significant impact on Wells’ development or his timetable. As long as Wells makes it back in April or even the first half of May, he'll get plenty of at-bats and defensive innings this year. I think it’s unlikely we’ll find ourselves saying “drat, Wells would be in the Bronx right now if not for the broken rib” in September.

“It’s definitely a frustrating thing to happen,” Wells told Joyce. “Everything happens for a reason, so I’m trying to be positive. Just being around this clubhouse and being here is a cool opportunity. Just trying to take in everything I can. There’s still a lot to learn, even if I’m not in the daily grind of everything with them.”

The good news is Trevino and Higashioka are healthy. The Yankees are already pushing the limits of their catching depth though. Rortvedt and Wells will miss a few weeks and Breaux might as well. Opening Day is still a month away, so there’s time to get the Triple-A catching situation sorted out, and the Yankees should do it. Get a depth catcher now. Don’t wait for another injury and have to scramble.

3. IKF and the Dodgers. Spring Training is meaningless baseball sandwiched between injuries and, earlier this week, the Dodgers lost shortstop Gavin Lux to multiple torn ligaments in his right knee. He stumbled while running the bases and his knee gave out (video). The Dodgers said Lux is done for the season. They didn’t even leave the door open for a September or October return.

“It’s heartbreaking. You put in a lot of time and work, and really enjoy the guys in the clubhouse. The hardest part is just not being able to be on the field,” Lux told Juan Toribio. “... I think that’s one of the hardest parts. Every baseball player’s dream is to play shortstop for the Los Angeles Dodgers. So yeah, that’s one of the hardest parts.”

The Dodgers traded for longtime Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas a few weeks ago and planned to use him as a utility infielder, and now he’ll step in at short full-time. Super utility guy Chris Taylor is Plan B. Plan C is minor league journeyman Yonny Hernandez, who has mostly played second base in recent years and owns a career .324 SLG … in the minors. Eek.

“I do know that what we do have will be more than sufficient, but we’re always trying to get better,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Toribio about the team’s shortstop depth. “Whether it’s internally or externally, I just don’t know.”

Free agency has little to offer. Jurickson Profar is a full-time left fielder who hasn’t played the left side of the infield since 2018. The numbers say José Iglesias can’t handle shortstop anymore (-26 DRS the last two years). Andrelton Simmons? Jonathan Villar? Yuck. There’s no one in free agency who is an upgrade over what the Dodgers have in Rojas.

On the trade front, the Cardinals would probably give Paul DeJong away as long as you take the $11M they owe him this year. Jorge Mateo? Josh Smith? Taylor Walls? I’m sure they’re available at the right price. Then there’s Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who the Yankees like more than they should, and is competing for the shortstop job with Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe this spring.

As much as the Yankees like Kiner-Falefa, they don’t consider him off-limits. I know they talked to several teams about him over the winter (the Rockies, most notably), and Los Angeles might even be a little desperate after Lux’s injury. Is there a Kiner-Falefa trade to be made with the Dodgers? Maybe! Let’s talk this out.

Why would the Dodgers do it?

The Dodgers are shockingly thin, especially compared to the last few years. With Lux hurt and Rojas in the starting lineup, their projected bench includes Taylor as the super utility guy (okay), backup catcher Austin Barnes (fine), Jason Heyward (uh), and Hernandez (eek). The Dodgers have earned the benefit of the doubt, but really? Heyward and Hernandez?

Mid-range prospect James Outman could replace Heyward on the bench, though there’s no one to replace Hernandez. Top prospect Miguel Vargas is penciled in at second base this year and he’s a natural third baseman who’s never played short. Triple-A second baseman Michael Busch has never played short and there’s some doubt he’ll stick at second in the anti-shift era. The Dodgers don’t have an MLB-ready shortstop-capable middle infielder in their system.

Kiner-Falefa is no Lux, but he's better than Hernandez and close to a 1-to-1 replacement for Rojas on the bench. If the Dodgers like his defense as much as the Yankees, they could put Kiner-Falefa at short and slide Rojas back into the utility role they originally envisioned. Point is, the Dodgers lack depth. That’s why they’d trade for Kiner-Falefa. To address that need.

Why would the Yankees do it?

Roster functionality. In Oswald Peraza, the Yankees have an MLB-ready shortstop prospect who should – should – be given a long leash this season. Anthony Volpe looms as well. Peraza at short turns Kiner-Falefa into a non-first base utility infielder, and with Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu also on the roster, that role is not particularly valuable unless there’s an injury.

Trade Kiner-Falefa and the Yankees would a) still have Cabrera and LeMahieu (and Volpe?) providing coverage all around the infield, and b) clear a bench spot for a proper backup outfielder. Who’s the fourth outfielder right now? If Aaron Hicks starts in left, it’s Cabrera. Carrying Estevan Florial or Rafael Ortega rather than Kiner-Falefa creates a more functional roster.

There’s a money component too. FanGraphs estimates the luxury tax payroll at $292.5M (Cot’s has it at $288.6M), and if the Yankees truly intend to stay under the $293 fourth penalty tier, then shedding Kiner-Falefa and his $6M would go a long way. That creates nice breathing room for in-season call ups, the trade deadline, and whatever else (a Zack Britton re-signing?).

More than anything, trading Kiner-Falefa would open a roster spot for a player who better fits the roster’s needs, specifically a true extra outfielder. Kiner-Falefa and LeMahieu are a bit redundant positionally, and Cabrera could always cover shortstop for a few innings or a few days in the event of an injury. The money stuff is a secondary benefit.

What’s a reasonable asking price?

Kiner-Falefa will make $6M this year and he’ll become a free agent after the season. We have a pretty good sample of similar second and third tier infielders traded with one year of control. These trades all happened within the last 16 months:

• Adam Frazier, Padres to Mariners ($8M salary): Traded for two top 30 team prospects (LHP Ray Kerr and OF Corey Rosier).
• Adalberto Mondesi, Royals to Red Sox ($3.045M salary): Traded for an MLB middle reliever (LHP Josh Taylor).
• Miguel Rojas, Marlins to Dodgers ($5M salary): Traded for a top 15 team prospect (SS Jacob Amaya).
• Gio Urshela, Twins to Angels ($8.4M salary): Traded for a top 20 team prospect (RHP Alejandro Hidalgo).

Mondesi has barely played the last few years because of injuries and Frazier was an All-Star a few months before he got traded. They're not perfect comps, but in the ballpark. One top 20-ish team prospect looks like a reasonable return for Kiner-Falefa, no? Maybe closer to a top 30-ish team prospect.

A top 20-30 team prospect could take on many forms. Just using my top 30 as a guide, No. 20 is a 25-year-old who’s been in the system since 2015 (RHP Jhony Brito) and No. 21 was just drafted last summer (RHP Trystan Vrieling). A top 20-30 team prospect for Kiner-Falefa? Okay, but what kind of prospect? I think the Yankees would look for one of two types:

• Upper level pitcher to help replenish the depth they traded away last summer.
• Rookie ball kid who is years away from being Rule 5 Draft eligible.

Three of my top six and 10 of my top 30 prospects will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season. The Yankees have to manage their 40-man roster carefully. Trade Kiner-Falefa for a top 20-ish team prospect who has to go on the 40-man next offseason and you might’ve just traded for a prospect you’ll lose in the Rule 5 Draft in 10 months because of the roster logjam.

The Yankees should trade Kiner-Falefa for a player who will help very soon or a player who is years away from going on the 40-man roster. A prospect who is a year or two away just adds to the logjam. The Dodgers are contenders and Kiner-Falefa’s not a difference-maker. I doubt they’ll give up a near-MLB-ready arm. A kid down in rookie ball makes more sense for them, and it makes sense for the Yankees too.

Who are some possible targets?

Eric Longenhagen released his top 51 Dodgers prospects list a few weeks back. Let’s use that as a guide and pick out some interesting rookie ball kids who could interest the Yankees in a potential Kiner-Falefa trade. Sound good? Here are some names who stood out, with a snippet of Longenhagen’s write-up.

C Thayron Liranzo (No. 27 prospect, Rule 5 Draft eligible in Dec. 2025): “Liranzo’s offensive ceiling as a switch-hitting catcher with power makes him one of the more exciting, higher-variance prospects in the lower part of this system … Liranzo is far from a lock to stay back there (at catcher).”

3B Mairoshendrick Martinus (No. 28 prospect, Rule 5 Draft eligible in Dec. 2026): “His big, noisy swing features a huge leg kick and bat wrap, and produces some epic pull-side contact when he’s on time, which isn’t often. There’s hit tool risk stemming from both Martinus’ pitch selection and his feel for contact, but there’s no telling what kind of power he might grow into.”

1B Samuel Munoz (No. 30 prospect, Rule 5 Draft eligible in Dec. 2026): “He has precocious feel for the barrel and is short to the ball for a hitter his size. The combination of Munoz’s feel to hit and his frame’s projectability excites scouts, though with strength and power will likely come a move from the outfield to first base … Of the young hitters in this system with a chance to break out, he’s the one with the most advanced skill for contact.”

LHP Ronan Kopp (No. 32 prospect, Rule 5 Draft eligible in Dec. 2025): “(He) sat 94-97 mph with a routinely plus slider (last summer). Kopp is still quite wild and will need to progress in the strike-throwing realm to have any sort of regular big league role, but his stuff is consistent with a late-inning lefty reliever.”

C Jesus Galiz (No. 35 prospect, Rule 5 Draft eligible in Dec. 2025): “While Galiz isn’t quite as polished a defender as his amateur billing might have indicated, he does do some ridiculous stuff back there and has enough of an offensive foundation to consider him a high-probability backup who has a puncher’s chance to be a primary catcher.”

If Galiz’s name sounds familiar, it’s because the Yankees had an agreement in place with him as part of their 2020-21 international signing class. Then the pandemic happened and teams were not allowed to trade for additional bonus pool money, and the Yankees had to back out of the deal because they could no longer afford him. Maybe they still have interest?

Trading for international bonus money is possible, though the Dodgers only have a $4.144M pool this signing period because of their luxury tax status and the Freddie Freeman signing. Baseball America says Los Angeles has signed at least 13 players, so I’m not sure they have any bonus pool money left to trade. If it happens, it’ll likely be a regular old player-for-player swap.

Will it happen?

Like the Yankees, the Dodgers aren’t the type to jump into the trade market to cover for an injury. They know that’s a recipe for inflated asking prices. They’ll give their internal replacements some run and adjust later if necessary. This is why they traded for Rojas, right? To be a utility guy who is capable of stepping in as a starter in the event of an injury. Well, now there’s an injury.

I don’t think a Kiner-Falefa to the Dodgers trade is imminent but I think we should keep an eye on this one. You needn’t try hard to envision Peraza (and/or Volpe) making Kiner-Falefa completely expendable, and the Dodgers wanting an upgrade over Hernandez. Los Angeles might not want to jump into the trade market yet, but who knows what’ll happen over the next few weeks?

4. Rapid fire thoughts. The Rockies are another possibility for Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Second baseman Brendan Rodgers did major damage to his shoulder diving for a ball earlier this week (video) and might need season-ending surgery, per Thomas Harding. Colorado could just re-sign José Iglesias, though I know they talked to the Yankees about a Kiner-Falefa for a reliever trade over the winter (I don’t know which reliever). Maybe those talks get rekindled. Needless to say, the Rockies are more likely to make a dumb knee-jerk trade than the Dodgers … MLB.com released their top 30 Yankees prospects list earlier this week. As usual, all the scouting reports are free. It’s a great resource. Just keep in mind it’s not a living document that gets constant updates. They release the list in Spring Training and update the rankings at the All-Star break, and that’s it. The scouting reports don’t change, so the information could be outdated later in the season. Anyway, they have five players in their top 30 who aren’t in my top 30, so check that out … And finally, MSG Networks will launch their direct-to-consumer streaming service for the Knicks, Liberty, and (hockey) Rangers soon, and Scott Soshnick has the pricing tiers: $10 per game, $30 per month, or $305 per year. A per game option, eh? NESN charges $30 a month for their DTC, so that looks like the going rate for these things. Figure a similar price for the YES Network’s DTC, which they’re expected to launch in time for Opening Day.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Phil asks: I'm confused about the "throw over" rule. So let's say you throw over twice. Now the runner can just basically take the biggest lead he wants and there's nothing you can do about it? He can basically wait for you to come set and run and you can't throw over? Or can you step off and throw to second? I must be missing something.

The pitcher can throw over a third time, and if there’s no out recorded on the play, it’s a balk. So the runner can take a big lead after two pickoff throws, something like Joc Pederson against Jon Lester when Lester had the yips throwing to first base …

… but the pitcher can try a third pickoff. And if the runner takes a huge lead, why wouldn’t you try the third pickoff? He’s probably gonna steal the base anyway. The third pickoff at least gives you a chance at an out, and the penalty (a balk) is the same as a steal (unless there’s more than one runner on base). We’ll see some third pickoff attempts. I don’t think it’s a two-and-done situation.

(Former Braves front office staffer Noah Woodward has done great work breaking down the new limit on pickoff throws (part one, part two, part three), including screen grabs of runners adjusting their lead after pickoff attempts this spring.)

Jonathan asks: What would a Nestor Cortes extension look like this year? What would he get in FA if he replicates last year? Should the Yankees extend him now?

When it happened, I thought the Jeffrey Springs extension would work for a Cortes extension, but it turns out they’re at different service time levels. Springs was two years away from free agency. Nestor is three years away. Otherwise they’re similar as journeymen lefties who had a breakout season in 2022. Too bad they’re at different service time levels.

The Marlins gave Sandy Alcantara five years and $56M last offseason, before his big Cy Young season, and he was at the same service time level then as Cortes now. Alcantara had a much longer track record though. He signed that deal with three full seasons of high-end performance. Let’s spitball this one. How’s this look for Nestor?

• 2023: $3.2M (his agreed to salary)
• 2024: $5.5M (second arbitration year)
• 2025: $8M (third arbitration year)
• 2026: $12M (free agent year)
• 2027: $12M (free agent year)
• 2028: $12M club option (free agent year)

That’s four years and $37.5M guaranteed covering 2024-27. Call it $38M with an option buyout. Springs received four years and $31M despite being one year closer to free agency, though he’s three years older than Cortes, has a shorter track record as a starter, and Nestor’s All-Star game selection will boost his arbitration salaries and give him more leverage.

Cortes gets a life-changing sum of money two years after being a non-roster guy and 10 years after being a 36th round pick. The Yankees get two of Nestor’s free agent years with an option for a third. For reference, $12M a year buys you Andrew Heaney and Sean Manaea in free agency these days. Maybe four years is one too long and we knock it back to three years and $26M? Either way, this seems reasonable, I think.

Nestor rules and I hope he’s a Yankee forever, but I would totally understand the Yankees going year-to-year with him. His track record is short and the league average-ish fastball velocity means his margin of error isn’t huge. I would be happy for Cortes if the Yankees gave him an extension. I also understand why they might not do it and instead play out his three arbitration years.

Stephen asks: Jurickson Profar is still sitting around in free agency and my cursory Googling hasn't come up with much in the way of rumors. Is there any chance the Yankees take a flier on him as the starting LF on a cheap one year deal? Or are they 100% committed to some combination of Hicks, Cabrera, and other internal options.

Profar’s MLBTR archive is almost sad. It's some speculation with few very actual rumors. He’s going to play in the World Baseball Classic, so he’ll get some at-bats and everyone will get a look at him, but yeah, it’s been very quiet. At this point I assume Profar and Scott Boras are waiting for an outfielder to get hurt. That’s the most straightforward path to a contract.

Here’s my Scouting the Market post on Profar. I find him underwhelming. He’s a singles and walks left fielder with iffy defense. Profar’s better than Aaron Hicks and every game counts, but I think the end result is the same with both players: we’ll want the Yankees to get someone better at the deadline. I think the Yankees are committed to Hicks & Co. and I’m honestly not that upset about passing on Profar. I just wish they’d gotten someone better this offseason.

Steve asks: I know Bobby Miller is ranked a bit higher than Oswald Peraza, but would you trade Oswald Peraza and a 15-30ish ranked guy (Luis Gil?) for Bobby Miller? Or maybe Gavin Stone + something for Peraza? I think the Dodgers probably do the second deal but turn down the first one. Would clear up the IF logjam and clear SS for Volpe, but I get the feeling that if they trade Peraza, they're doing it for MLB talent, not unproven guys.

Peraza+ for Miller is a reasonable trade and both teams would deal from a position of depth to address a need. The Dodgers get a shortstop who can replace Gavin Lux this year and then pair with him as the double play combination long-term. The Yankees get a Triple-A pitcher with significant upside, something they currently lack. Here’s what the Trade Values site says:

I keep going back and forth on this trade. Part of me says the Yankees should keep the quality middle infield prospect because Gleyber Torres is coming up on free agency and the rest of the infield is aging out. They need to begin building the next infield core. Also, pitchers break, especially hard-throwing young pitchers. Miller’s a great prospect who is inherently risky.

Another part of me says the Yankees could really use a cheap young starter to plug in behind Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón next year, and Miller has the skills to be an impact guy. Peraza is a good but not a truly elite prospect, and the Yankees can give Anthony Volpe the shortstop reins long-term. The rest of the infield? They’ll figure it out in free agency or something.

I say do it. The Yankees need a near-MLB-ready potential impact starter, and I’m a bit skeptical Peraza will be anything more than a 7-8-9 hitter with shiny defensive numbers for a contender. My hunch is both teams would say no. The Yankees love their shortstops and believe in their pitcher development, and the Dodgers are planning on a Lux-Miguel Vargas double play combination long-term.

(Similar to the Anthony Volpe for Corbin Carroll hypothetical, Peraza+ for Miller is a trade the Yankees could have more seriously entertained had they bothered to sign a top free agent shortstop either of these last two offseasons.)

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