February 24th, 2023: Montas, Rortvedt, Judge, Grapefruit League Storylines, Mailbag

The folks at Codify Baseball tweet out random stats and one caught my eye the other day. The Yankees have a .582 winning percentage over the last 100 years. That’s a 94-win pace for a century. They went 9,094-6,528 during those 100 years and would have to lose every game for close to 16 years to fall to .500. The standings over the last 100 years:

1. Yankees: 9,094-6,528 (94-win pace)
2. Dodgers: 8,511-7,134 (88-win pace) (594.5 GB)

The draft, free agency, and luxury tax have changed the game significantly and it’s not as easy to acquire and keep talent as it was back in the day, but still, a 94-win pace for 100 years? That’s insane. Here’s to another century of 94-win baseball. Now let’s get to today’s post, the last post without actual games until hopefully November (but at least October).

1. Spring Training news and notes. At long last, Yankees baseball is upon us. The Yankees open Grapefruit League play Saturday afternoon. They’ll be across the causeway in Clearwater, and you’ll have to watch the Phillies broadcast on MLB.tv or wherever you watch out-of-market games. There’s no YES broadcast for that one, but hey, at least you can watch it somewhere. Here are the latest notes from Tampa.

Montas and Rortvedt have surgery

As expected, Frankie Montas had his shoulder surgery Tuesday, and the good news is they didn’t have to touch his rotator cuff. He had his labrum scoped and is expected to resume throwing in 12 weeks. That puts Montas on track to throw in mid May. Figure a 2-3 month build up period from there and he’ll be ready just in time for the Yankees to say “we think getting Montas back is like making a trade at the deadline." Kidding! Or am I?

“Everything went according to plan,” Aaron Boone told Mark Didtler about Montas’ surgery on Wednesday. “We’re Day 1 out of surgery, so we have a long way to go from there. We’re hopeful at some point he can get back but I don’t want to best case, worst case.”

In other injury news, Ben Rortvedt has surgery this week to treat an aneurysm near his left shoulder. He had numbness in his fingers last week and this addressed it (sounds similar to David Cone’s aneurysm in 1996). Rortvedt will be shut down from baseball activities for a month and figures to miss the start of the regular season.

"Everything went well,” Boone told Bryan Hoch about Rortvedt's surgery. “Anytime you hear about circulation and things like that (it’s scary), but hopefully now he’s on the way back.”

Austin Wells (rib) is banged up, though he started workouts earlier this week (video), and should have enough time to get ready for the regular season. Rortvedt won’t. He’ll miss the start of the regular season. Here’s the updated Opening Day catcher depth chart:

• MLB: Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka
• Triple-A: Josh Breaux and Rodolfo Durán (Rortvedt hurt)
• Double-A: Austin Wells and Anthony Seigler (assuming Wells is healthy)
• High-A: Antonio Gomez and Carlos Narvaez
• Low-A: Agustin Ramirez and Alex Guerrero

The Yankees won’t rush Wells up to Triple-A just because Rortvedt got hurt. Wells is a legit prospect with a development plan all mapped out, and the Yankees won't deviate just because someone else got hurt. Mickey Gasper, a 27-year-old organizational first baseman who was drafted as a catcher and has caught some over the years, is likely third in line behind Breaux and Durán in Triple-A.

I don’t think we can rule out a minor league catcher signing just to help cover while Rortvedt is sidelined, though the pickings are slim this time of year (I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a Gary Sánchez reunion). With Rob Brantly gone, and without another catcher signing, Breaux is No. 3 on the depth chart until Rortvedt returns. He’s an injury away from the big leagues.

(With Rortvedt hurt and Higashioka leaving for the WBC, there will be a lot of at-bats available in Grapefruit League play for Breaux and Wells once he’s healthy.)

Judge open to playing left field

Earlier this week we learned Boone won’t rule out playing Harrison Bader or Aaron Judge in left as a way to get Giancarlo Stanton into tiny right field at Yankee Stadium. Unsurprisingly, Judge is fully on board with it. In fact, Judge went to the Yankees and suggested it.

“I did mention it to them about, ‘If we need to get Big G in right field at Yankee Stadium, put me in left,'" Judge told Hoch. “I don’t mind it. I don’t mind switching around so we can have me, (Bader), and Big G out there. We’ll get some reps hopefully in Spring Training and get comfortable out there.”

Judge last played left field in the 2018 All-Star Game. He played five innings there in deference to Mike Trout in center and Mookie Betts in right. Otherwise Judge hasn’t played left field since he was in Triple-A in 2016, and that was only seven games (his only seven games in left in pro ball). Give him some time to get comfortable out there in camp, and my guess is Judge would have little trouble in left field.

The Yankees have talked enough about Judge playing left field these last few days that I think it’ll happen at some point this spring. There’s no reason not to try it, really. Stanton hasn’t played more than 38 games in the outfield since 2018 and I don’t expect him to play out there regularly. I’ll set the over/under on regular season games with Judge in left and Stanton in right at 14.5.

“I’m open to things like that, especially in the home ballpark,” Boone told Hoch about Judge in left and Stanton in right. “So we’ll see. It’s something that I would say I’m at least considering, and we’ll just see how that goes in letting that play out and getting guys reps in different spots. So no decision on that yet, but it is something that’s on my board.”

Saturday’s travel roster and upcoming pitching plans

As noted, the Yankees begin Grapefruit League play on the road Saturday. We’ll learn the full travel roster sometime Friday, though Boone told Erik Boland that Oswaldo Cabrera, Jasson Domínguez (!), Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Gleyber Torres are making the trip. Also, non-roster reliever Tyler Danish will start on the mound, per Greg Joyce. Tyler Danish? Alrighty.

You have to send at least four MLB players on the road in Spring Training and seeing how Danish is getting the start, I assume the fourth big leaguer won’t be a pitcher. Otherwise they’d just start that pitcher and let him go home once he’s done (standard practice for veterans in Spring Training). Maybe Kyle Higashioka will be the fourth MLB player? He has to get some games in before leaving for the World Baseball Classic.

I’m going to be busy all day Friday and won’t have time to update this post once Saturday’s travel roster is made available. Sorry. Here are the games between now and Tuesday’s post, and how you can watch. These are all 1pm ET games except Monday. That’s a 6:30pm ET start.

• Saturday at Phillies: Phillies broadcast
• Sunday at Blue Jays: Blue Jays broadcast and MLB Network (split squad)
• Sunday vs. Braves: YES app only (split squad)
• Monday vs. Tigers: YES and MLB Network

Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Luis Severino threw live batting practice Wednesday, so figure they’ll make their Grapefruit League debuts in the middle of next week at the earliest. Nestor Cortes threw live batting practice Thursday, plus he’s still nursing that hamstring injury, so figure he’s a bit behind the other guys.

Domingo Germán threw live batting practice Sunday, which would seem to line him up to start one of Sunday’s split squad games. In that case, bet the farm on the home game against the Braves rather than road game against a division rival. Clarke Schmidt threw live batting practice Tuesday. Seems like he’s a candidate to start that Tigers game. That’s all I have for now.

(If you care about opposing pitchers in spring, former Yankee Nick Nelson will start Saturday’s game for the Phillies. The Tigers are starting Beau Brieske in that Monday game. He took the loss but had a fine start at Yankee Stadium last June.)

Miscellany

As noted, Cortes faced hitters in live batting practice Thursday, and all went well with his injured hamstring. “I thought actually I was a lot better than what I thought I would be. Just because in my first live, I didn’t know how my leg was going to react with the intensity and facing those guys, so I thought it was a lot better than I expected,” he told Joey Johnston. So far, so good on Nestor’s return to health … And finally, like every other team the Yankees have the new pitch clock set up for their live batting practice sessions this spring. They took it a step further earlier this week and brought in a Triple-A umpire to enforce the pitch clock like an actual game. “I’m thankful for that, where he could really give a true ball-strike count and work the mechanics of the clock, allowing people to ask questions in real time as stuff is happening,” Boone told Hoch. Apparently a bunch of Yankees, both pitchers and hitters, got hit with violations. That’s why you work on it now, to avoid violations in games that count.

2. The most important Grapefruit League storylines. The Grapefruit League season begins Saturday and there will be Yankees baseball on your screen seven times in the next six days (there are split squad games Sunday). You’ll have to watch the other team’s broadcast for a few of those games, but that’s better than nothing. Lots of watchable Yankees baseball coming up.

“Getting the group in and knowing it’s the start of the grind, the grind that I think we all live for and love, and the excitement I know all of our guys have about our team and what we can potentially be,” Aaron Boone told Erik Boland about the start of Spring Training. “There's that excitement that exists here these last few days, being with our pitchers and catchers, but there's no question, getting our full team here and right away starting to just build that camaraderie, build that culture and build that team, that's always something you look forward to. Certainly I do.”

As always, Spring Training brings plenty of storylines, some more important than others, and with exhibition games about to begin, we can start following these storylines in earnest. There’s not much we can learn about position battles and breakout candidates and all that during bullpen sessions and live batting practice, you know? The games will tell you what you need to know.

Here, in no particular order, are the most important Yankees’ storylines with the Grapefruit League season set to get underway this weekend.

The shortstop competition

A not-so-secret secret is the Yankees don’t do Spring Training competitions. Maybe for the last spot in the bullpen or on the bench, a roster spot that tends to be a revolving door throughout the summer anyway, but otherwise no. They don’t use Grapefruit League performance to determine roster spots. They might say they do, but they don’t. Their spring competitions are for show.

Which is to say I don’t believe the shortstop competition is an actual “open competition.” I think the Yankees know exactly who they want at short on Opening Day, and I think that player is Oswald Peraza. Isiah Kiner-Falefa stopgapped for a year, Peraza impressed in limited time last season, and Anthony Volpe could use a little more Triple-A seasoning. I believe the job is Peraza’s.

And what happens if Peraza has a rough spring and Kiner-Falefa (or Volpe) lights it up? I still think the job is Peraza’s. Two springs ago Mike Tauchman (.250/.382/.571) outperformed Clint Frazier (.217/.294/.370), yet Frazier was the left fielder to begin the season. It was always going to be Frazier. The Yankees wanted him to be the guy and didn’t let Spring Training performance change their opinion. (As it turned out, both guys stunk that year.)

Go back to 2010, and Phil Hughes (4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP) won the No. 5 starter competition even though Sergio Mitre (3.27 ERA and 0.82 WHIP) had the better spring. The Yankees wanted Hughes to be their No. 5 starter and Hughes was indeed named the No. 5 starter. I think they want Peraza to be the shortstop, and as long as he makes it through camp healthy, the job is his.

“I don’t think there’s any way I’m hoping it necessarily goes,” Boone said about shortstop on the first day of camp (video). “You’d like for it to declare itself at some level, but you’d like for the guys to continue to make it hard, because you feel like they all bring something potentially special to the table. So we’ll let that play itself out. Obviously, performance always matters, but hopefully maybe it will declare itself about who is the best guy to be in that spot when we break camp. In the end, we feel like whatever way it goes, there’s a few really good options there. Maybe it plays out through the entire year as well.”

Kiner-Falefa will “compete” for the shortstop job because you want him motivated and because you want Peraza to feel a little heat too. I think the job is Peraza’s, but there’s nothing wrong with putting pressure on him. Volpe has been in Tampa since January – “I’m just excited to play and compete and treat this like the beginning of the season instead of camp,” he told Greg Joyce – and yeah, let him think he can win the job too. Internal competition is a good, healthy thing.

Boone said the plan is to play the shortstop candidates at different positions this spring, as they should. Pay attention to their usage though. It’s not just who gets the most time at short, it’s who gets the most time at short early in games, when the opposing team has their big leaguers on the field and on the mound? Who pairs up with DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres? The double play combination(s) will be kept together. Usage, not hitting stats, is the thing to pay attention to here.

“I’m really excited about penciling in any name of what they can be for us this year,” Boone said (video). “We got a taste of Peraza last year at the end of the year. It was my first time really getting to be around him a lot, I thought he acquitted himself very well. I think IKF has had a really good winter, and I think Year 2 for him here could be even better. Anthony, we think he’s gonna be a great player in this league.”

(The left field competition deserves a mention as well, though I’m not sure that’s much of a competition either. Seems like the Yankees are giving the job to Aaron Hicks whether we like it or not. Also, shortstop is the more premium position and deserves more attention.)

LeMahieu’s contact quality

With all due respect to the shortstop competition (“competition”), I think this is the No. 1 storyline in camp. LeMahieu is such an important player for the Yankees. Not just offensively because his high contact bat provides needed lineup diversity, but also with his versatility. The Yankees can put him all over the infield and know he’ll defend well. LeMahieu’s like three (good) players in one.

Last year LeMahieu took a .285/.389/.424 (139 wRC+) batting line with more walks (13.6%) than strikeouts (12.6%) into August, then his toe became a real problem, and he hit .195/.265/.244 (49 wRC+) the rest of the way and missed most of September. His contact quality went in the tank. I’m going to embed the graph one last time just to drive home the point:

LeMahieu rehabbed his injury rather than have a complicated surgery with a long recovery time, and he says he’s 100%. “I’m so excited where I’m at right now … I feel like I’m in a really good place and really excited to be around the guys again,” he told Joyce. That’s all well and good, but it is Spring Training. Everyone feels great and is excited about where they are this time of year.

With the toe injury, fielding was never an issue for LeMahieu. I don’t really understand how, but it wasn’t. Hitting was the problem and this spring we’ll get our first look at this supposedly healthy version of LeMahieu, and whether he’s driving the ball again. We have Spring Training Statcast data, and while we shouldn’t obsess over every single batted ball, the Grapefruit League season as a whole should give us a pretty good idea where LeMahieu is really at offensively.

“He’s able to take his swing,” hitting coach Dillon Lawson told Dan Martin (subs. req’d) in January. “Sometimes when he came out there for batting practice (while injured), he’d have to come off his back side and couldn’t really rotate into the ball. That affected how he impacted the ball and swung through it. Now he’s able to do everything he needs to do, whether (the pitch) is inside, outside, up or down. It looks like there was never a problem.”

(We should pay attention to post-elbow fracture Mike King as well. He’s already facing hitters, which is a good sign. Still, with an injury that severe and that unique, it’s worth keeping tabs on whether he looks like the Mike King we saw last year.)

Prospects!

Five of my top six prospects and 12 of my top 30 prospects are in big league camp, either as 40-man roster players or non-roster invitees. Here are those 12 prospects and where I ranked them in the top 30:

1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. OF Jasson Domínguez
3. SS Oswald Peraza
5. OF Everson Pereira
6. C Austin Wells
10. RHP Randy Vásquez
11. RHP Luis Gil (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery)
17. OF Estevan Florial
18. OF Elijah Dunham
19. RHP Ron Marinaccio (technically still a prospect)
20. RHP Jhony Brito
23. RHP Yoendrys Gómez

Other notable prospects in camp include C Josh Breaux (fell out of top 30), 3B Andres Chaparro (prospect to know), RHP Deivi García (fell out of top 30), and LHP Matt Krook (prospect to know).

"He’s a real problem for lefties," Boone told Joey Johnston about Krook. "At the end of last season, we were seriously considering him for the postseason because of  what he brought to the table."

Watching prospects is one of Spring Training’s simple pleasures, and while watching prospects isn’t a storyline in and of itself, there are storylines attached to these guys. Peraza and Volpe are competing for the shortstop job (if you take the Yankees at their word). Brito and Vásquez are the next wave of rotation depth. Wells is currently banged up, though he may not be far away from the Bronx.

Then there’s Florial, who is out of minor league options and staring down his last chance to carve out a role with the Yankees. He provides speed and defense, and can run into mistakes, but I don’t see an MLB roster spot for him without injury. Florial is trying to impress other teams as much as the Yankees this spring. If not the Bronx, he wants a big league job somewhere.

“It’s just the mentality of coming here and try to make the team,” Florial told Joyce. “It doesn’t matter if I’m out of options or if I wasn’t. Just come here and do the best I can. In the end, they make the decision.”

I’m most looking forward to seeing Domínguez. That’s a bit of a boring answer, I’m supposed to be the nerd who tells you about an under-the-radar prospect I expect to wow in March, but come on. Domínguez is a great prospect and there’s an element of the unknown with him. There’s a chance (a good one) big league pitchers will carve him in Grapefruit League play. There’s also a chance Domínguez hits one off the scoreboard against them. That would be so much fun.

“He had an exciting year last year,” Boone told Joyce about Domínguez. “He went from A-ball down here in the Florida State League to High-A then to Double-A. Every step of the way his plate discipline, his contact quality, all those things went up. He plays a really good center field. Athletic, great arm. We’re excited about him. Last year was a big stepping stone for him, so hopefully he continues to build on that.”

Who looks different?

It’s Spring Training and everyone is in the best shape of their life, they trained at Driveline in the offseason, they’re planning to run the bases more aggressively, they’re working on a new pitch, etc. etc. The players change but the Spring Training tropes stay the same. The thing is, some of it is true! But a lot it has no on-field impact and is nothing more than a spring fling.

Case in point: Kiner-Falefa last Spring Training. Remember when he worked with Justin Turner’s personal hitting coach and then looked exactly like Turner in the box? Those adjustments were rolled back less than two weeks into the season. Gerrit Cole added a cutter last Spring Training, but it was gone by the middle of the season. This is usually how it goes with spring adjustments. Players try something, they don't like it, then they scrap it.

We still have to pay attention to these adjustments though, because they do occasionally turn into something meaningful. The Yankees worked with Gio Urshela to get into his legs a little more in 2019 and he crushed the ball that spring, and it carried over into the regular season. Jonathan Loáisiga replaced his curveball with a sweepy slider in Spring Training 2021. Every once in a while something happens in Spring Training that sticks.

So what will we see this spring? Clarke Schmidt is working on a new cutter and non-roster lefty Nick Ramirez has a new slider. Aaron Judge spent time with Paul Goldschmidt this winter and picked his brain about his two-strike approach. I can’t find it now but I remember reading Willie Calhoun, who is in camp as a non-roster player, tweaked his swing in the offseason. There are bound to be other things in the works.

I’m curious to see whether Josh Donaldson, who showed declines consistent with a 37-year-old losing bat speed last year, makes any adjustments this spring (cutting down on his leg kick?). Boone told Bryan Hoch “you’re crazy to not think there’s a bounce back in there offensively” when asked about Donaldson and I dunno. I wish there was more evidence to support a bounce back. We’ll see what happens in camp. Maybe Donaldson will tweak some things. (This also applies to Hicks.)

Point is, some guys will look different this spring. Maybe they added a pitch, changed their setup at the plate, altered their delivery, who knows. Lots of guys spend lots of time working on lots of things each winter. Does any of it stick? We won’t know until the regular season, but the process begins in Spring Training.

The new rules

In an effort to improve pace of play and create more action on the field (things I am in favor of), MLB will implement several new rules this season. Anthony Castrovince has a great explainer on all the new rules. Here’s the bullet point version:

• Pitch clock: 15 seconds between pitches with the bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on base. Pitchers are limited to two disengagements (pickoff throw or step off) per plate appearance to prevent gaming the clock.
• Shift ban: Two infielders on each side of second base with both feet on the dirt or infield grass when the pitch is released. Four-man outfields are gone but an outfielder can still come in for a five-man infield.
• Bigger bases: They’re 18 inches by 18 inches now, not 15 inches by 15 inches.

All the new rules are important and will be impactful. How impactful? I don’t think anyone really knows, but we’re going to find out. The pitch clock is the biggest change because it’s omnipresent. It’s on every single pitch for every single player.

“It’ll just be a daily grind of getting them into the flow of it and understanding where all the nuances of it are, the disengagements, the time between, all that stuff,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Joyce (subs. req’d) about the pitch clock. “(Being) aware of what guys have been historically, and then obviously there’s certain guys like Loáisiga and Holmes and Weissert that are borderline timing-wise. Just getting them used to it, getting them up to speed with it.”

Loáisiga is one of the slowest workers in the sport and will have to speed things up considerably to be pitch clock compliant. Of course, he’ll be away at the World Baseball Classic for a bit, and they are not using the new rules at the WBC. That cuts into Loáisiga’s time adjusting to the pitch clock. Clay Holmes and Mike King are the other notables who will have to pick up the pace. The starters are in good shape. Their relievers have to speed it up.

If the history of rule change implementation is any indication, this weekend will be a nightmare, relatively speaking. There will be a bunch of pitch clock violations and players will act like it is the worst thing ever. Then, in a few weeks, they’ll all make the adjustment and it’ll be business as usual. Remember the foreign substance checks? Max Scherzer melted down on the mound the first night. Now they’re routine and no one really notices them.

Initially, there were roughly three violations per game when the 14-second pitch clock was introduced at the Triple-A level last year. A month into the season, it was whittled down to one violation every other game, and a month after that, it was one violation every three games or so. The players are going to whine and act like the pitch clock is ruining the sport, but they’ll adjust. They always do. That adjustment period starts this weekend.

Also, it’s a batter clock as much as a pitcher clock. The batter must be in the box and alert to the pitcher at the eight-second mark. That doesn’t leave much time for fiddling with batting gloves and whatnot, and I say hooray for that. A pitcher violation is an automatic ball. A hitter violation is an automatic strike. A close regular season game is gonna end on a pitch clock violation at some point and it will be chaos.

“Oh man, I completely forgot about it until about three pitches in,” Aaron Judge told Mark Didtler about taking live batting practice with the pitch clock earlier this week. “I had to kind of check myself because I was getting into the box around eight or nine seconds. That would be strike one, strike two, strike three on me. Once we play a couple games, get a couple at-bats, guys will get used to it.”

I’m not sure we’ll learn much about the limit on pitcher disengagements and the associated stolen base strategy this spring. Historically, the Spring Training stolen base attempt rate is about the same as the regular season, though a lot of that is minor leaguers late in games. Big league regulars usually don’t run much in camp (especially early in camp) because they don’t want to risk injury.

Think about the cat-and-mouse game with the limit on disengagements. A runner at first base might run first pitch after a pickoff throw thinking the pitcher won’t use his two pickoffs back-to-back. And if you’re a pitcher who just made his second pickoff throw, wouldn’t that be a good time to try it a third time with the thinking being the runner will go because he isn’t expecting you to risk the balk? I dunno. We’ll see. Maybe not right away in Spring Training, but eventually.

(I recently discovered pitchers must ask for a new baseball with at least nine seconds remaining on the clock. Rubbing up the ball and asking for a new one is one way to get around the pitch clock, though even that is limited. Also, David O’Brien (subs. req’d) wrote about Sean Murphy’s strong arm recently and that made me realize catcher pickoffs will take on added importance with the limit on disengagements. Jose Trevino and Anthony Rizzo have a set play with a snap throw to first. I bet we see it more often this year.)

The pitch clock will require the biggest adjustment but the ban on extreme shifts and the larger bases are notable changes as well. The Yankees and every other team will use the new rules for the first time this spring. There will be short-term pain, we’re gonna hear plenty of pitch clock complaints in the coming days, but the rule changes are good for the game overall. The players will figure it out even if they don’t like it.

“There is risk. You can’t change without there being risk,” Rob Manfred told Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) last week. ”... (There’s) going to be a period of adjustment. We all understand that. And you know, you don’t want that period of adjustment to be rough in the sense that you have game outcomes that are changed as a result of people adjusting to the rules. Over the long haul, we believe that the benefit that we will see from these changes make it worth the risk.”

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Aaron Judge spoke to Deesha Thosar about passing on the World Baseball Classic. Not surprisingly, he said he wants to focus on preparing for the season and helping the Yankees try to win a World Series. “It would be an honor to represent my country and play in that, but my main goal is what I can do here in New York and what I can do to bring a championship back here. I think especially after signing a nine-year contract, for me, priorities are New York. Maybe four years down the road, hopefully I can still make the team and get an opportunity to play, but right now for me, my focus is here,” he said. That’s great, though I don’t love the idea that leaving your team to play in the WBC means your priorities aren’t in the right place (Judge didn’t say that, but I know that belief exists among some fans and maybe even within the sport itself). We could easily argue playing in competitive WBC games better prepares you for the season than going through the motions in Grapefruit League games. Anyway, I hope the Yankees win three World Series in the next three years so Judge can go to the WBC next time around. In the meantime, USA will have to get by with Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Kyle Tucker in the outfield … More WBC news: Jose Trevino told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) he passed up opportunities to play for USA and Mexico because he wants to continue working with the pitching staff. “I wanted to be with this pitching staff. I want to be with this team in this clubhouse. I wanted to have a full Spring Training. My main goal is to win a World Series,” he said. Wow, look at Trevino taking a shot at Kyle Higashioka for playing in the WBC (I kid, I kid) … And finally, Neil Best reports Paul O’Neill will indeed be back in the YES Network booth this season. No more broadcasting from his basement. Still no word on the rest of the YES analyst roster. At this point I have to think it’ll be the same cast minus Carlos Beltrán and Cameron Maybin, and maybe with a little more Jeff Nelson.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mark asks: If you were the GM, what level of production would you like to see out of Peraza or Volpe as the starting SS this year that would make you avoid going after Machado the next offseason? If both fail at the opportunity, does that make you go all in on him?

Passing on 26-year-old Manny Machado five years ago, then giving 31-year-old Machado an even larger contract next offseason would be *chef’s kiss*. Never say never, but I don’t see the Yankees pursuing Machado. They didn’t pursue him five years ago and they’ve passed on all these (younger) free agent shortstops the last two offseasons. It ain’t happening.

Hypothetically though, there is no level of production from Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe that would make me pass on Machado. You can fit all three on the infield, which is why I beat the “sign a top shortstop you idiots” drum so loudly the last two offseasons. Machado at third, Peraza at short, Volpe at second. See how easy it is?

Now, if Peraza and Volpe were to fall on their faces this year, the Yankees would be in trouble. They wouldn’t have a shortstop and it’ll be a few years until another high-end shortstop hits the open market. I don’t think the Yankees would react to Peraza and Volpe flopping by throwing a pile of money at a free agent though. That was a clear admission passing on those free agent shortstops was a mistake and I don't think they'd do that. The Yankees would probably just start hyping up Trey Sweeney.

Machado's skill set (contact, power, elite glove, etc.) and athleticism suggest he’s going to age well. I believe he’ll remain very productive into his mid-30s and maybe even beyond that. It would have been nice to sign him five years ago, but signing him next offseason works too. Machado’s prime still aligns with Aaron Judge’s, Gerrit Cole’s, and Carlos Rodón’s. The Yankees will need a new third baseman next offseason and would be better with Machado than without him.

Dan asks: You've made the point in the past that some front offices are better than others at certain things. Scouting, player development, analytics, etc. Is it possible that Billy Beane is just better at knowing his pitchers than Brian Cashman is, and that going forward the Yankees should be much more cautious with dealing with Beane concerning trades?

Well, Beane should know his pitchers better than Cashman, right? You should know your players better than everyone else knows your players. Sonny Gray and Frankie Montas didn’t work out, but I don’t think the solution is avoiding Athletics players. If you start avoiding teams that got the best of you in a trade, you’ll run out of ways to acquire players sooner than you think.

You have to learn from your mistakes and the Yankees need to sit down and figure out what they missed in Montas’ medicals and why the trade was okayed, and what they missed with Gray (and Joey Gallo), because those issues exist with other players around the league. They’re not exclusive to A’s pitchers. Simply staying away from A’s pitchers leaves you open to making similar mistakes with players on other teams.

Oakland doesn’t have any pitchers worth acquiring right now, so we don’t have to worry about the Yankees making another bad pitching trade with the A’s for another few years. We do have to worry about them making another bad pitching trade in general. There are landmines out there and the Yankees ate it bad with Montas. Figure out what happened and make sure it doesn’t happen again. This isn’t an A’s pitcher problem, it’s a Yankees problem.

Gabriel asks: Do you think there’s prospect rankings bias based on the organizations they play for? Say Anthony Volpe or Jasson Dominguez was in the Atlanta’s or Tampa Bay’s minor league system vs Detroit’s or Cincinnati’s system? Would they have more value from a trade standpoint? I’ve read that teams tend to value their own prospects more than other teams. (Wink wink)

Yes, the organization absolutely influences prospect rankings, even if not many are willing to admit it. There are two ways to look at this. One, the player can change organizations at any moment, so his team should not be a consideration when ranking. And two, if the organization has demonstrated a repeatable skill (like the Yankees helping pitchers add velocity), why wouldn’t we project that onto the player? I lean toward the former (ignore organization) but I can understand the latter (factor organization in).

It feels like we’re getting at two different things: prospect rankings and player development rankings. The Tigers have had little success developing hitters the last few years. If the Yankees trade Volpe to Detroit, does he become a worse prospect, or is it just less likely he reaches his ceiling? Or are those one and the same? With my Top 30 Prospect List, my approach is to highlight the player’s skills and developmental needs, and note whether the Yankees have shown they can address those needs. I don’t think I move players up or down based on that, though maybe I do without realizing it.

As for trade value, eh, teams trade for players based on their evaluation of the player, not what the prospect rankings say. They definitely target players they believe they can coach up, so some guys have more value to one organization than they do another, but that’s a team thing, right? Not a player thing. That gets back to my idea about prospect rankings vs. player development rankings. Someone smarter than me needs to get on that.

Paul asks: Is the MLB average really that 13% of starters go 7+ innings?! That's shocking to me, it seems like it happens half of that. Can you show what the # is for the rest of the Yankees starters please and thanks?

In the Domingo Germán vs. Clarke Schmidt poll (which Schmidt won easily), I noted Germán has gone seven innings in 11% of his career starts, just under the 13% league average from 2021-22. I didn’t even bother to take out openers when calculating the league average, so the rate of seven-inning starts among actual starting pitchers is higher than 13%.

I agree 13% seems high, but it’s really not. It’s only four seven-inning starts for a guy who makes 30 starts in a given season. Not even one a month. Here’s how often the current Yankees starters have gone seven innings the last two seasons:

1. Gerrit Cole: 30.2%
2. Nestor Cortes: 19.0%
3. Carlos Rodón: 18.2%
4. Luis Severino: 15.8%
5. Domingo Germán: 12.5% (11% is his career rate)

If you’re curious, that number is 20.3% for Frankie Montas. It’s 16.4% for Jameson Taillon and 5.7% for Jordan Montgomery (that's his time with Yankees only, though he went seven innings only once in 11 starts with the Cardinals). The Yankees kept Montgomery on a short leash. Much shorter than their other starters. It wasn’t often he went through the lineup more than twice.

Sandy Alcantara leads baseball (by a lot) with 35 seven-inning starts the last two years, an incredible 53.8% of his starts. He’s more likely to go seven innings than not. The Astros lead baseball with 71 seven-inning starts the last two years (21.9%), followed by the Phillies (20.1%) and Guardians (19.1%). The Pirates are last at 4.3%. The Yankees are ninth at 15.4%.

The Yankees had a run in late May and early June last season in which their starters went at least seven innings 10 times in a 14-game span, and in three of the other four games the starter went at least six innings. The lone exception was a JP Sears spot start on May 25th, when the Yankees had him on an 85-ish pitch limit. He went five innings.

Only five teams got more innings from their starters than the Yankees in 2022, and with the way the 2023 Yankees are built, they should rank near the top of the league in starting pitcher innings again this year. If they’re not, something went wrong. The rotation is the team’s strength, and if those guys aren’t giving innings, there’s a problem.

Anthony asks: Mike the Yankees need a mascot! I know they tried one before but it was hideous and was poorly thought out. Here's my idea - call it "Pride of the Yankees". Have a lion mascot (also represents the Bronx Zoo) wearing a Babe Ruth jersey and throw on the Yankee top hat from the alternate logo. The Yankees should be more fun. Not having a mascot purely because it's "not the Yankee way" is as stupid as their no facial hair policy. What are your thoughts? Do I have your unwavering support?

The Yankees did have a mascot once upon a time. Here’s Dandy, their mascot from 1979-81:

I am pro-mascot – kids love them! – and I dig Anthony’s suggestion of a lion with the Yankees top hat. The problem: the Royals already have a lion mascot named Sluggerrr. Can’t steal their bit.

The Yankees could always go with a generic humanoid or fuzzy monster mascot, though if you go with a fuzzy monster, why not an updated version of Dandy? Make him versatile and slap a mustache on him the days Nestor Cortes pitches, give him a wig and a robe for Aaron Judge, put him in a muscle suit for Giancarlo Stanton, etc. I’m open to the idea.

I don’t expect the Yankees to use a mascot anytime soon (or ever). It’s just not very Yankee-like (you know what I mean). I wish they were more open to these things (mascots, alternate jerseys, etc.) because there’s so much potential for creativity and more fun in general. Plus they’d make a ton of money with the merchandise. I’m with Anthony. The Yankees need a mascot.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)