Poll: The No. 5 Starter

Who are we kidding? They’re both gonna start a bunch of games. (Getty)

A few weeks ago we learned Frankie Montas would miss the first few weeks of the season, and the Yankees would need a fill-in No. 5 starter. Now we know Montas will miss all of 2023 and the Yankees need a new permanent No. 5 starter. Montas will have shoulder surgery Tuesday and the best case scenario is he returns late in the year. I’m not counting on it.

“They have an idea (what the problem is). Once they’re in there, they’ll know if they have to touch the labrum or touch the rotator cuff. That’ll determine if you have to add weeks to the surgery,” Aaron Boone said last week (video). “Best case is he would be back late in the season. If it’s just a scope, then he could potentially be back late in the year.”

Montas has the talent to be better than a No. 5 starter but he was only the No. 5 starter. I don’t want to downplay his injury, it really sucks, but the Yankees still have their horses and the guys they’re expected to lean on throughout October. With Montas out of the picture, here’s what the rotation depth chart looks like:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Carlos Rodón
3. RHP Luis Severino
4. LHP Nestor Cortes
5. RHP Domingo Germán
6. RHP Clarke Schmidt
7. RHP Jhony Brito, I guess

The rotation depth beyond Schmidt isn’t great, though I thought that last Spring Training too, and the Yankees figured it out as they went. Point is, Germán is the favorite to replace Montas and step in as the No. 5 starter. Stepping into the rotation when a need arises has been his role the last few seasons and I have no reason to believe this year is any different.

“Losing Frankie is clearly a blow. Unfortunately we haven’t gotten to see him pitch like the pitcher we know he is,” Boone told Bryan Hoch last week. “But we also feel very confident with the depth that we’ve built up. We feel very good about the rotation that we will potentially go north with.”

I don’t know whether the Yankees will give the No. 5 spot to Germán outright, or make him battle for it in Spring Training. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to let Clarke Schmidt compete for the spot, even if only to dangle the carrot in front of him and make Germán sweat a little. There’s nothing wrong with a little friendly competition. They’re teammates, but it's okay to make them push each other.

With that in mind, let’s make a case for Germán as the No. 5 starter and Schmidt as the No. 5 starter, then vote on who should get the job. Sound good? Let’s get to it.

The case for Germán

Let’s start with the obvious: Germán pitched well last season. He returned from a shoulder injury after the All-Star break and threw 72.1 innings with a 3.61 ERA (4.44 FIP). Not amazing, but we are talking about the No. 5 starter (really No. 6 starter). That is strong performance relative to role. In over 400 career big league innings Germán is a 4.37 ERA (4.46 FIP) pitcher, which is within 2% of league average during that time.

Getting to that league average performance isn’t always smooth. Germán’s had ups and downs. He pitched like an ace the first two months of 2019 – remember when we thought he might make the All-Star team? – then he hit a wall and surrendered 25 homers in 87.2 innings (!) the rest of the way. Germán had a similar run (hot start, limp to the finish) in 2021 and 2022 as well, though the peaks and valleys weren’t quite as extreme as 2019.

Beyond the performance, Germán has the equipment to start. He’s a legitimate four-pitch pitcher if you consider the four-seamer and sinker two different pitches (which they are), and he’s had close to a league average or better whiff rate with all four pitches the last two years:

• Four-seam: 19.1% (MLB average: 21.7%)
• Curveball: 40.5% (MLB average: 30.9%)
• Changeup: 27.3% (MLB average: 30.2%)
• Sinker: 16.4% (MLB average: 15.1%)

Germán doesn’t beat himself with walks (6.5% the last two years), he keeps hard contact to the league averages (89.4 mph average exit velocity and 7.4% barrel rate), and his platoon split is small too. Last season Germán allowed a .306 wOBA to lefties and a .317 wOBA to righties. Everything about him keeps adding up to, well, average.

We shouldn’t overlook Germán’s pitch efficiency. The MLB average is 3.88 pitches per plate appearance. Last year Germán was at 3.63. He’s at 3.73 the last two years and is at 3.77 since 2019. He’s not a guy who needs 18-20 pitches to get three outs. Germán has made 70 career starts and in those 70 starts he’s gone:

• 5 innings 48 times (69%) (MLB average: 68%)
• 6 innings 30 times (43%) (MLB average: 39%)
• 7 innings 8 times (11%) (MLB average: 13%)

Keep in mind Germán has spent time bouncing between the rotation and bullpen, and has made a good number of starts on pitch counts. I’m not Germán’s biggest fan but I gotta give the dude credit. When he’s stretched out, he gives his team a representative start and can pitch into the sixth and seventh inning because he’s efficient. It’s nice to have a No. 5 who can do that.

Also, Germán is not a kid anymore. He turns 31 in August. This is the Yankees’ best (last?) chance to find out whether he can be a full-time rotation piece. Montas and Severino will be free agents after the season and it would be nice to know whether Germán can be counted on to fill one of those rotation spots next year, even as only a league average No. 4-5 starter.

We’ve seen Germán put together some terrific starts. He outpitched Max Scherzer head-to-head last summer, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning in Fenway Park two years ago, he outpitched Clayton Kershaw head-to-head in 2019, etc. Germán can dominate a good offense. He doesn’t do it consistently, but he’ll do it occasionally, and not all No. 5 starters can.

“I’m really excited about where Domingo is right now,” Boone said last week (video). “His work has been excellent. He’s in great shape. I feel like his frame of mind is really good. I do feel like there’s been a lot of maturity that’s happened with him over the last couple years, but even from last year to this spring so far. He certainly understands where he’s at in his career and the opportunities that are in front of him right now.”

The case for Germán boils down to his ability to be an average-ish starter (based on both his career performance and his arsenal) who occasionally dominates, and his ability to give innings reliably. The priority is 2023, though there is something to be said for finding out whether Germán can be a rotation piece in 2024 as well. He’s the safe choice as Montas’ replacement.

The case against Germán: Germán returned from last year’s shoulder injury with less velocity and fewer strikeouts. His fastball dipped from 93.5 mph in 2021 to 92.7 mph in 2022, and his strikeout rate fell from 23.9% to 19.5%. Among the 259 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings in both 2021 and 2022, that’s a top 20 strikeout rate decrease and a top 30 velocity loss.

Germán has always been home run prone as well. Last year was his best season preventing homers and he had a 1.37 HR/9 (12.1 HR/FB%). His career rate is 1.61 HR/9 (15.5 HR/FB%). Germán doesn’t get many ground balls (career 39.7%), so the ball is in the air a lot, and now he’s allowing more contact in general. That’s a potentially disastrous combination.

It’s possible Germán will regain velocity with a normal offseason. His shoulder acted up during the lockout last winter and he had to shut it down, so perhaps the velocity ticks back up with good health, and the strikeouts return as well. Then again, Germán has a history of shoulder injuries. This might just be who he is now, and less velocity and fewer strikeouts equals a smaller margin of error.

The case for Schmidt

The most obvious reason to give Schmidt the No. 5 starter’s job is his pedigree. He is a former first round pick (No. 16 overall in 2017) and top 100 prospect who turns 27 today. It’s time to get this show on the road and for the Yankees to figure out what they have. Schmidt has spent the last three years as an up-and-down guy working mostly in relief (five starts and 29 relief appearances in MLB). Giving him a rotation spot and letting him try to deliver on the pedigree is overdue.

We may not know much about Schmidt’s potential as a starter yet but we know he doesn’t lack stuff. His mid-90s sinker has produced a 63.0% ground ball in his big league career, comfortably above the 55.5% sinker average. His hard upper-80s slider has a 40.3% whiff rate (the league average for sliders is 33.4%). Schmidt has wicked, wicked stuff (GIF via Rob Friedman):

The sinker/slider combination is Schmidt’s bread and butter, though he also has a curveball that casually averages 2,914 rpm (elite) with 70% spin efficiency (good but not elite), a four-seamer with 93rd percentile spin (elite), and a changeup we haven’t seen much in relief, but does exist. He also has a new cutter, apparently. The stuff hints at the potential for above-average ground ball and strikeout rates.

Granted, we’re talking about 70.1 innings spread across three seasons, but Schmidt has pitched well in the big leagues (3.71 ERA and 3.89 FIP). He’s done it in an unfamiliar role and while being shuttled up and down, and in some difficult situations too. Schmidt faced the 12th most batters in extra innings in 2022 (with the automatic runner) despite not being on the MLB roster all year.

The Yankees haven’t exactly made things easy on Schmidt the last few years and I’m not ripping them for that. They’ve had really strong pitching staffs and the priority is winning games, and that doesn’t always jibe with breaking in young players. Schmidt’s handled it all well though. He’s been sent up and down, gone 7-10 days without pitching, etc. He’s shown adaptability.

“We definitely think he has the ability to start, but he’s already pitched in meaningful roles for us in the bullpen, a lot of different roles. He’s got a lot of confidence,” Boone told Lou DiPietro about Schmidt last week. “... I feel like he’s one of those guys that’s in a good spot that is competing for a lot of different things, and I can see him in a lot of different roles.”

There’s a future component to consider as well. Schmidt has five years of control remaining and gosh, it sure would be nice to develop him into a starter and have a cheap long-term rotation piece behind Cole and Rodón. Montas and Severino will be free agents after the season and the Yankees traded many of their upper level arms last year. Schmidt is one of the few remaining.

More than anything, the case for giving Schmidt the No. 5 starter’s job is the fact he’s a talented 27-year-old who was a significant investment (first round pick and $2.1843M bonus), and there’s finally a path to a full-time rotation spot coming out of Spring Training rather than with some weird in-season build up. We know what Germán is, right? We have no idea what Schmidt can do as a starter. If the Yankees aren’t going to find out now, when will they?

The case against Schmidt: It could be a bullpen/optimized matchups thing, but Schmidt tends to fall in love with his slider and become predictable. He threw one fastball and 11 sliders In the ALDS Game 3 walk-off loss last year and the Guardians were looking breaking ball all the way. That slider-heavy approach won’t work as a starter. You gotta mix things up a bit.

Schmidt’s fastball command is lacking and his overall strike-throwing is just okay, partly because so much of his arsenal is designed to finish out of the zone. He’s built to get chases, and walks may always come with the territory. And as much as Schmidt’s cleaned up his delivery over the years, it is still pretty robotic. I’m not sure how much he can improve his command.

Because of (many) elbow injuries, Schmidt’s 93 innings in 2022 (postseason included) were his most ever in pro ball, and the second most of his career behind the 111.1 innings he threw as a sophomore at South Carolina in 2016. Put Schmidt in the rotation and the Yankees will have to watch his workload all year, and that’s always annoying. He won’t be a 175-inning guy out of the gate.

* * *

As I said in the photo caption up top, it’s likely the Yankees will need both Germán and Schmidt to make starts this season. That’s just baseball. And besides, whoever gets the No. 5 spot on Opening Day doesn’t automatically keep it forever. He has to pitch well to keep it, though getting the No. 5 spot to begin the season gives that pitcher a bit of a head start.

My guess is Germán will be the No. 5 starter to begin the season but what I think doesn’t matter here. Assuming this is a competition between Germán and Schmidt and no one else, who do you want to be the No. 5 starter to open 2023? Not who do you think it will be. Who do you want it to be?