February 14th, 2023: Cortes, Roster Check-In, WBC, Hot Stove, Fallen Prospects

I need to apologize for something. The last few weeks I’ve said Yankees’ pitchers and catchers report Tuesday, as in today, but that’s wrong. They report Thursday. They were always scheduled to report Thursday. Why I started saying Tuesday, I have no idea, but I did. As far as mistakes go, this one is pretty dumb and low stakes, so I don’t feel too bad, but still, my bad. Pitchers and catchers report Thursday, then Grapefruit League games begin next Saturday. Now let’s get to today’s post.

1. Cortes injured. Pitchers and catchers have not yet reported to Spring Training and the Yankees already have two injured starters, and it’s not even the two guys with long and scary injury histories. Frankie Montas is out with shoulder inflammation. Now Nestor Cortes has a Grade 2 hamstring strain and had to withdraw from the World Baseball Classic.

“Came in on Wednesday and told the staff I was a little banged up. After long talks,  obviously, the best interest was to stay out of (the WBC)," Cortes told Mark Didtler. "The biggest goal right here is to get healthy and be ready for the start of the season. I think it’s something that’s definitely doable to start the season off healthy and in the rotation. Didn’t think of it much. I thought it was just a cramp. Later that night went to put on a shoe and kind of felt a little pull there. Once I showed up here it was a little bruised. We’re taking it day by day. We’re seeing how I progress.”

The good news: Nestor got hurt in early February, not the middle of March, so he has a nice long runway to heal up and prepare for the season. The bad news: Cortes will not throw off a mound for a "few weeks," he said. He will be behind the other starters, and it seems like the best case scenario is coming out of camp not fully stretched out. One of two things can then happen:

• The Yankees put Cortes on the Opening Day roster anyway, and continue to build him up in regular season games.
• The Yankees put Cortes on the injured list and let him finish his “Spring Training” with a Triple-A rehab assignment.

There’s merit to both approaches. The Yankees tend to be conservative with their starters early in the season – in 2019, the last year without pandemic and lockout weirdness, they did not allow a starter to throw more than 85 pitches the first time through the rotation, and no one threw 100 pitches until their fourth start – so taking a slow with Nestor wouldn’t be out of character for this team. If they decide to go that route, they can manage.

This is definitely one of those “be smart and cautious with him now because we’ll need him later, and we don’t want this to become a bigger issue” injuries. Assuming Domingo Germán moves into the rotation to replace Montas, Nestor’s injury would clear the way for Clarke Schmidt to play a larger role, either as a temporary rotation replacement or as a piggyback guy while Cortes gets stretched out in April. I doubt the Yankees will be reckless with Nestor’s rehab work.

The larger concern is Cortes has now had three lower body soft tissue injuries in the last seven months. He had two separate left groin strains in the second half last year, and now he’s dealing with a hamstring strain. Leg injuries are preferable to arm injuries, sure, but they’re still injuries and impact his availability, and potentially his effectiveness. The worst case scenario would be Nestor changing his mechanics (even subconsciously) to protect his leg, and either hurting his arm as a result, or just being less effective in general.

Cortes is way too important to the Yankees to play around with this and let him push to be ready for Opening Day. As long as this doesn’t become a long-term issue, fine. Deal with it in April and go from there. If it lingers, or if Nestor develops another lower body injury, then it’s probably time to look into his training and/or his workload to see why they keep happening. They may not be a fluke.

“This year, I think I’m going to make it (a point) to myself where I take care of my legs a little better,” Cortes told Greg Joyce.

2. Pre-Spring Training roster check-in. Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa on Thursday (not Tuesday), and, six weeks after that, it will be Opening Day at Yankee Stadium. It feels so close and yet so far at the same time. Anyway, with Spring Training on the horizon, let’s check in on the state of the Yankees’ roster:

If LeMahieu (foot) is unable to begin the season, it would open the door for Florial (or Ortega?) to make the Opening Day roster. Cortes (groin) and/or King (elbow) not being ready for Opening Day would clear a path for Abreu, Weissert, or whoever pitches well in camp. Effross will miss the entire season and Gil most of it, so the Yankees have 60-day injured list candidates and 40-man roster flexibility.

Otherwise that is close to the same team the Yankees fielded at the end of last season, only with Rodón and Kahnle instead of Jameson Taillon and Lucas Luetge. A full year of Bader, Cabrera, and hopefully Peraza could boost the offense, ditto LeMahieu and Stanton staying healthy. A full year (or close to it) of King and good Loáisiga will help the bullpen, as will no Aroldis Chapman.

That said, we have to expect Judge to regress some. He could hit 40 homers and it would be an amazing season, but also an enormous step down from last year. The lack of quality lefty bats is worrisome. The Yankees are a Rizzo back flare up away from having no impact lefties in the lineup and that’s bad news. I can’t believe they didn’t bring in another lefty bat this offseason.

(The more I’ve thought about it the last few weeks, the more I believe the Yankees should have ponied up for Matt Carpenter. I know he wanted regular playing time, but money can make up for that, plus there’s always playing time available given how much the Yankees load manage their players. Carpenter, for example, could have played third base when Cole and Rodón, two extreme strikeout/fly ball pitchers, are on the mound. The Yankees need the lefty bat and can afford to overpay for upside on the margins of the roster. Alas.)

The Yankees feel like a team with an incomplete roster. I have a hard time believing whoever they stick in left field on Opening Day will be the guy they run out there in the postseason, and there is the potential for change at third base and even shortstop, depending who gets the job to start the year. For what it’s worth, here’s what ZiPS says about the AL East heading into Spring Training:

Yeah, looks about right to me. The Yankees are the AL East favorites, but not overwhelmingly so, with the Blue Jays and Rays the biggest threats. Toronto got better this offseason, most notably massively upgrading their outfield defense. I thought they had the talent to win the AL East the last two years. At some point you have to go prove it though. They’ve been less than the sum of the parts and it’s on them to show they truly belong among the league’s elite.

The Orioles are on the rise but weirdly didn’t get their youngsters much help this winter. Adam Frazier? Kyle Gibson? That’s really the best you could do? Baltimore ranks 29th in payroll. Way to support the kids, ownership. When you have this much young talent, it can arrive in a hurry. It happened with the Pirates in 2013, the Cubs in 2015, and the Braves in 2018. They went from 70-something wins one year to 90-something the next. Still feels like the O’s could have done more this winter. Their core will never be cheaper than it is right now.

The Red Sox have such a high variance roster. If a few things go their way (Chris Sale stays healthy, Masataka Yoshida plays up to the projections, Garrett Whitlock successfully transitions into the rotation, Tristan Casas breaks out, etc.), they’ll be a headache all year and possibly contend for a postseason berth. If none of that happens, they look like a draft lottery team.

Over the last three seasons the Yankees have played like an elite team – a truly elite, top of the league kinda team – for only three months (the first half of 2022). They went 41-42 in their final 83 regular season games last year and received a .232/.291/.360 batting line from players other than Judge in the second half. The most recent information about this group isn’t exactly great.

And yet, it’s a very strong roster with maybe the best 1-2-3-4 rotation punch in the sport, one of the 3-5 best players in the world, several strong complementary pieces, and a few high-upside kids poised to assume larger roles. They need to stay healthy (duh), plus figure out left field and get a lefty bat (things that should have happened in the offseason), but the roster is strong overall, even if it isn’t as complete as I’d like it to be heading into camp.

3. Four Yankees heading to WBC. The 2023 World Baseball Classic rosters were finally made official last week. Here are the full rosters and players by MLB team. The Yankees are sending four to the tournament now that Nestor Cortes has withdrawn with his hamstring injury (Cortes was on USA’s official roster and has been replaced by Kyle Freeland):

RHP Indigo Diaz (Canada)
C Kyle Higashioka (USA)
RHP Jonathan Loáisiga (Nicaragua)
2B Gleyber Torres (Venezuela)

Wandy Peralta was on the Dominican Republic’s preliminary roster but did not make their final roster. The Dominican Republic team is stacked, though they’ll have Ronel Blanco and Joel Payamps in the bullpen. Feels like there was room for Magic Wandy. Several players (Nathan Eovaldi, Jordan Romano, Logan Webb, etc.) withdrew from the WBC in recent weeks. Maybe Peralta did the same. Or maybe he’s hurt and we don’t know it yet. That would suck.

Otherwise the Yankees got off easy. They’re sending three big leaguers (one being the backup catcher) and one minor leaguer (Diaz was part of the Lucas Luetge trade) to the WBC and I don’t think the organization is upset about that at all. Only the Rangers (three) are sending fewer players than the Yankees. The Angels are sending an MLB-leading 18 players to the WBC. The Angels?

I’m not too worried about Higashioka or Torres (or Diaz, who is unlikely to contribute to the 2023 Yankees). They’ll do what they have to do to get ready for the season. Nicaragua’s roster is thin but they have enough older pitchers who started last year (wherever they were playing) and/or in winter ball. Loáisiga is their best player though, and I imagine they’ll lean on him a good bit. Here are the WBC pitcher usage rules:

• Minimum four days of rest after a 50-pitch outing.
• Minimum one day of rest after a 30-pitch outing.
• No back-to-back-to-back days.

Nicaragua is in Pool D, the toughest pool on paper, and they’ll play four games in four days from March 11th to 14th (and could advance beyond that, though it seems unlikely). Loáisiga has an arm injury history, and while those pitch limits are helpful, they’re not that restrictive. The nightmare scenario is Nicaragua using Loáisiga in this completely within the rules way:

• March 11th vs. Puerto Rico: 49 pitches
• March 12th vs. Israel: does not pitch (mandatory rest day)
• March 13th vs. Dominican Republic: 29 pitches
• March 14th Venezuela: however many pitches needed (Loáisiga vs. Gleyber with the game and a chance to advance on the line would be fun)

No, I don’t think Nicaragua manager Sandor Guido would do that to Loáisiga, but it would be legal, and teams plan pitcher usage around those limits. In 2017, China held Bruce Chen to 49 pitches in his first start so he could pitch again two days later. Chen came out of retirement for the WBC and was onboard with the plan, but still, pitch limits matter. Loáisiga pitching that much in a four-day span in March would not be preferable, to say the least.

(Given how cautious the Yankees tend to be with their pitchers early in the season, my guess is they plan to be careful with Loáisiga after the WBC no matter his workload with Nicaragua because it’s a disruption to his usual Spring Training program.)

Beyond workloads and usage and all that, MLB’s new rules will not be used in the WBC. No pitch clocks, no limits on extreme shifts, etc. Higashioka, Loáisiga, and Torres will all have less time to adjust to the new rules than non-WBC players. Loáisiga is a very slow worker. He has to prepare for the pitch clock and will have less time to do it while away at the WBC. Suboptimal.

There is prize money for the WBC, by the way. These guys are going to represent their countries, sure, but they also get paid. Similar to the MLB postseason pools, the WBC prize pool is split up among the players, and the more you win, the more you get. The WBC players’ pool is $7.2M total. Here’s how it’s split up:

• Qualify for WBC: $150,000 per team (20 teams)
• Pool winner: $150,000 per team (4 teams)
• Reach quarterfinals: $200,000 per team (8 teams)
• Reach semifinals: $250,000 per team (4 teams)
• Reach Championship Game: $250,000 (2 teams)
• WBC Champion: $500,000

The WBC champ can max its prize pool out at $1.5M. Split that evenly among 30 players and it’s $50,000 per player. Not bad for a little two-week side gig. It’s $5,000 per player just for being in the WBC. That’s nothing to Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout and those guys, but there are a lot of minor leaguers playing in the WBC. Diaz, for example, will make less than $19,000 this year as a non-40-man roster Triple-A player ($700 per week). That extra $5,000 just for showing up helps a lot, plus he gets more if Canada advances.

As for travel, it’ll be easy for Yankees players. Diaz and Higashioka are going to Arizona and Loáisiga and Torres are going to Miami. If any of their teams advance out of pool play, they’ll play their remaining games in Miami. Nothing particularly taxing here. Had Anthony Rizzo gone to play for Italy again, he would’ve had to go to Taiwan for a week. The pools:

Every WBC team will play at least four games and the teams that advance to the Championship Game will play seven games. For the Yankees guys, it’s a maximum of seven games spread across 11 days, which is a bigger workload than usual in mid-March. If Torres plays every WBC game, it's a heavier workload than usual in Spring Training, though I doubt he'll play every single game for Venezuela.

WBC pitchers and catchers are already in camp. They reported Monday. Position players report Thursday. Shohei Ohtani is leaving the Angels to join Japan on March 1st, so figure that’s around when WBC players will leave their MLB teams. The Yankees play five Grapefruit League games in February. I assume Loáisiga will get a relief appearance (or two) in under the watchful eye of the Yankees before leaving to join his WBC team.

I enjoy the WBC, it’s an awful lot of fun, and I try not to let the anxiety of an important Yankee getting hurt bother me too much. It’s out of my control and players get hurt in Spring Training all the time. The Grapefruit League isn’t some injury-free safe haven. Hopefully the WBC is exciting and makes any injury nervousness worth it, and the four Yankees all return in one piece.

4. Latest hot stove news and rumors. There has been some Yankees-adjacent hot stove news the last few days. Nothing directly involving the Yankees, just some stuff that kinda sorta pertains to them. Let’s cover it all now.

Dodgers sign Peralta

David Peralta, one of the few MLB caliber outfielders remaining in free agency, signed with the Dodgers over the weekend. Jeff Passan says it’s a one-year contract worth $6.5M, which is A.J. Pollock ($7M with the Mariners) and Tommy Pham ($6M with the Mets) money. Peralta, 35, hit .267/.329/.449 (116 wRC+) against righties last year with sneaky good defense and good contact quality.

Three weeks ago I said Peralta was my preferred left field option assuming the Pirates won’t budge on their Bryan Reynolds asking price. “I don’t love him, but I like him more than most of the other guys out there,” I wrote, meaning I’d rather sign Peralta than pay up for Jurickson Profar or trade prospects for Max Kepler. One year and $6.5M is so reasonable it’s boring.

Unless something comes out of left field (pun intended), it looks like the Yankees really will go into camp with Oswaldo Cabrera, Estevan Florial, Aaron Hicks, and I guess Rafael Ortega as their primary left field candidates. I think that’s a mistake, I think they needed to bring in another bat (a lefty, specifically) this winter, but that's who they're going with. Kinda hard to believe, really.

Peralta isn’t a game-changer or anything, he’s a perfectly cromulent platoon left fielder who can hold down the fort until you find better at the trade deadline. Had the Yankees signed him, I would have been okay with it more than loved it, and I would’ve been a tad annoyed they didn’t do better. Maybe they have something up their sleeve before Opening Day. Hope so.

D’Backs sign Chafin

This one irks me more than Peralta going to the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks signed lefty Andrew Chafin to a one-year deal worth $6.25M guaranteed, according to Nick Piecoro. There’s a $7.25M club option and $1M in bonuses tied to appearances. Chafin declined a $6.5M player option with the Tigers to become a free agent, so that move didn’t work out as planned.

Chafin, 32, had a 2.29 ERA (3.02 FIP) in 126 innings the last two years. He had no real platoon split and solid peripherals (25.7% strikeouts, 7.5% walks, 47.9% grounders). I gave him two years and $17M as part of my Offseason Plan, so I either value Chafin more than MLB teams or I misread the market, or both. Either way, that’s a nice one-year pickup for Arizona.

The Yankees are said to want a lefty reliever and the best available free agent lefty reliever – a legitimately good lefty reliever, not someone who was the best available by default – just signed an affordable one-year contract, so consider this a missed opportunity. I still expect Zack Britton to show up to Tampa in a few days and fine, whatever, but I would’ve preferred Chafin. Shrug.

“Strong belief” Yamamoto will be posted after 2023

There is “strong belief” the Orix Buffaloes will post ace righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto after 2023, reports Joel Sherman. Yamamoto is a reigning two-time MVP and Eiji Sawamura Award winner (Japan’s Cy Young equivalent). He is on Japan’s WBC roster and figures to be in their rotation alongside Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani, and 21-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki.

The timing certainly makes sense. Yamamoto turns 25 in August, so he will no longer be subject to the international bonus pools next offseason, and can sign a contract of any size. He’s pitched to a 1.54 ERA (2.48 FIP) with a 5.5% walk rate and a 27.7% strikeout rate the last two years. The NPB averages are 7.9% walks and 20.1% strikeouts. Here’s video from his no-hitter last June.

FanGraphs has the latest and greatest scouting report. They rank Yamamoto higher than Kodai Senga, who signed with the Mets earlier this offseason, among international prospects:

Yamamoto followed up his 2021 leap, in which he became NPB's best pitcher, with a nearly identical '22 season. Once again he worked just shy of 200 innings in 26 starts (nearly 7.2 innings per start) while posting the best ERA (1.68), xFIP (2.31) and K-BB% in NPB, leading the league in strikeouts (205, 32 more than second place Roki Sasaki) and WAR among pitchers. Yamamoto retained the little velo bump he first showed in 2021 and still sits 93-95 mph, reaching back for some 6s and 7s during starts and peaking at 99 during 2022. That's happened while Yamamoto has retained his terrific command. He's a 70 on-mound athlete who attacks hitters and locates his secondary stuff almost at will. This is especially helpful for the viability of Yamamoto's cutter; his rainbow curveball and low-90s splitter (his best pitch and most-deployed secondary) have plus movement and don't need the help. Yamamoto is also super advanced, and can alter the shape of his fastball to make it cut, sink, or ride. Polished and talented in equal measure … He'd immediately slot into the middle of a contending rotation with no. 2 starter upside and therefore comfortably fits among the top 30 or so prospects in MLB.

Masahiro Tanaka’s seven-year, $155M contract with the Yankees is the largest contract ever given to a posted Japanese player. With another strong season in 2023, Yamamoto will have a chance to break Tanaka’s record given his talent and age. Tanaka got that huge deal because he was only 25 when he signed. Yamamoto will be 25 next offseason as well, and there’s nine years of inflation to consider (you saw the contracts handed out this winter, right?).

Since the Kei Igawa mistake, the Yankees have seriously pursued only two Japanese players: Tanaka (posted at age 25) and Ohtani (posted at 23). They go after the best of the best when they have a ton of prime years remaining, and that’s it. Guys like Senga and Masataka Yoshida, who are approaching 30, aren’t their cup of tea. Yamamoto is much more up their alley.

The Yankees have more than $60M coming off the books after the season in Josh Donaldson ($25M luxury tax hit), Luis Severino ($15M), Frankie Montas ($7.5M), Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($6M), Harrison Bader ($5.2M), and Wandy Peralta ($3.35M), plus Aaron Hicks ($10M) figures to get traded before picking up 10-and-5 rights in August. The Yankees will have to replace those guys, but that is a nice chunk of change coming off the books next winter.

Of course, the Yankees already have Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón locked up through 2028, and I’m not sure they have an appetite for a third $20M+ a year pitcher, especially with Aaron Judge’s new contract and Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027. It’s one thing to take on Donaldson at $25M a year for two years. Good or bad, you know that contract is going away soon. It’s another thing entirely to take on $20M+ a year for what, 6-7 years for Yamamoto?

The market is shaping up to make at least one high-end young player (young as in mid-20s) available in each of the next few offseasons. There will be Yamamoto next winter (assuming he’s posted), then Juan Soto will become a free agent at age 26 the offseason after that. Then, after 2025, Munetaka Murakami will be posted. He will be only 25 at the time. Whether the Yankees pursue any or all of those guys is another matter, but there will be prime-aged impact talent available.

5. Fallen Top 30 Prospects. Last week I published my annual Top 30 Prospects List (and Not Top 30 Prospects) and nearly half the list – 13 players total – are new additions. They were not on last year’s Top 30, either because I didn’t consider them Top 30 prospects or because they weren’t in the organization yet. Here’s what happened to the 13 players they replaced:

• Traded (5): RHP Luis Medina, LHP JP Sears, LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Beck Way, RHP Hayden Wesneski
• Graduated to MLB (3): RHP Albert Abreu, UTIL Oswaldo Cabrera, RHP Clarke Schmidt
• Lost on waivers (1): RHP Stephen Ridings
• Last four remain in the organization but fell out of the Top 30

I explained where those traded prospects (and others) would’ve slotted into this year’s Top 30 at the bottom of the Top 30 post. We’re here to examine those last four prospects and why they fell out of the Top 30, and whether they can make it back into the Top 30 at some point in the future. Let’s dig in now, shall we?

RHP Deivi García (No. 12 in 2022)

Date of Birth: May 19th, 1999 (age 23)
Acquired: Sign July 2015 out of the Dominican Republic ($200,000 bonus)
2022 Stats: 6.89 ERA (5.75 FIP), 25.9 K%, 10.9 BB%, 14.0 SwStr% (64 IP at AA, AAA)
Projected 2023 Level: Triple-A, I guess?

What went wrong? What went wrong with my ranking is me believing too much in García’s ability to make adjustments (an ability he’s shown throughout his career) and correct the mechanical issues that derailed him in 2021. What went wrong with García is mechanical trouble that started when he fell in love with his slider, and dropped his arm to get more sweep. Everything since then has been a mess. He’s taken significant steps backward.

The slider is García’s baby, he picked it up on his own and then went to the Yankees for help refining it, and he fared well when pressed into MLB duty in 2020. Then he overdid it in 2021 and has been unable to get on track. García missed close to two months with an undisclosed arm issue last year, though it was a minor injury, and he spent most of that time in Extended Spring Training trying to reset. It didn’t work. The last two seasons have been brutal.

At this point García is an undersized righty (listed at 5-foot-9 and 163 lbs.) with an average-ish fastball and ineffective secondaries. His curveball, once his go-to secondary pitch, is loopy, and the slider and changeup backed up. García’s control has regressed and he gets hit very hard when he’s around the zone. The only silver linings are his age and pedigree.

Can he make it back into the Top 30? I want to say yes but I don’t think so. As far as I know García is out of minor league options (he may qualify for a fourth option but I don’t know yet), in which case it’s MLB or waivers this year. The thing is, this version of García might clear waivers. J.B. Bukauskas, Darwinzon Hernandez, and Justus Sheffield have all cleared outright waivers in recent weeks and they were touted prospects like García two years ago.

I’m out on Deivi. I hope he proves me wrong and figures it out, he’s a pretty talented kid, but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen the good version of García. He’s barely a Triple-A pitcher at this point. There’s no trade value or roster value right now.

1B Anthony Garcia (No. 24 in 2022)

Date of Birth: Sept. 5th, 2000 (age 22)
Acquired: Signed July 2017 out of the Dominican Republic ($500,000 bonus)
2022 Stats: .195/.372/.369 (121 wRC+), 14 HR, 21 SB, 21.6 BB%, 40.6 K% (384 PA in A-)
Projected 2023 Level: Probably High-A

What went wrong? I refer you to the 40.6% strikeout rate. And if that’s not bad enough, Garcia had a 33% in-zone whiff rate in 2022. When he swung at a pitch in the Statcast strike zone last year, he missed a third of the time. Woof. For reference, Joey Gallo had a 32% in-zone whiff rate with the Yankees, and that’s against the best pitchers in the world. Garcia did it against Low-A kids.

There is nothing to Garcia other than his bat. He has no defensive value and his impact on the bases is minimal despite those 21 steals. Garcia is a massive human (listed at 6-foot-5 and 204 lbs.) with incredible power (108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity), but he simply doesn’t get the bat on the ball often enough. Roughly two-thirds of his plate appearances ended with a walk, a strikeout, or a home run in 2022. On top of the contact issues, he’s a chore to watch.

Can he make it back into the Top 30? It's possible but improbable. Garcia has to make huge, huge strides just to get to a below-average contact rate, and with his power, below-average contact may be enough. It’s really hard to improve contact rate though. Garcia’s contact ability is firmly in fatal flaw territory. There’s a chance he tops out as a Single-A guy.

C Josh Breaux (No. 29 in 2022)

Date of Birth: Oct. 7th, 1997 (age 25)
Acquired: 2018 2nd round, No. 61 overall ($1.4975M bonus)
2022 Stats: .219/.283/.422 (86 wRC+), 19 HR, 2 SB, 7.7 BB%, 28.0 K% (403 PA at AA, AAA)
Projected 2023 Level: Triple-A

What went wrong? Nothing really went wrong. Breaux just kinda is what he is. He has a ton of power and a rocket arm – he was clocked at 99 mph when he pitched in junior college – and not much more than that. His non-throwing defense is improved but only passable, and he doesn’t make enough contact to really tap into his power (18.9% swinging strikes in 2022).

Now 25, Breaux looks like an up-and-down third catcher who runs into mistakes and doesn’t do much else. His upside might be Eric Haase. Haase has hit .242/.295/.451 (106 wRC+) with 36 homers and a 29.5% strikeout rate in 732 plate appearances for the Tigers the last two years, and it came with poor defense (-12 DRS and -12.4 runs framing). That guy can play for a rebuilding team but probably doesn’t fit as anything more than Triple-A depth for a contender.

Can he make it back into the Top 30? Sure. It’s not like going from No. 29 last year to a few spots outside the Top 30 this year is a big fall. Several Top 30 guys figure to graduate (Ron Marinaccio, Oswald Peraza) and/or leave the organization (Estevan Florial) soon, so Breaux has a path to getting back on the list. At the end of the day, he’s a close-to-MLB-ready catcher with carrying tools in his power and arm. There’s some value in that.

OF Ryder Green (No. 30 in 2022)

Date of Birth: May 5th, 2000 (age 22)
Acquired: 2018 3rd round, No. 97 overall ($997,500 bonus)
2022 Stats: .238/.304/.381 (97 wRC+), 1 HR, 1 SB, 8.7 BB%, 30.4 K% (23 PA in A-)
Projected 2023 Level: Probably Low-A and maybe High-A

What went wrong? An injury ended Green’s 2022 six games into the season and I've been unable to chase down the injury. I’ve heard shoulder, I’ve heard hamstring, I dunno. Whatever it was, it cost him the season, and losing another season is not what Green needed. The kid has 226 plate appearances the last three years between injuries and the pandemic.

Even before last year’s injury, Green’s swing and approach regressed in 2022, and he tinkered with a lot of different setups in an effort to get on track. Green’s a really good athlete and there’s legit power in his bat, but he was drafted as a long-term project in 2018 and he remains a long-term project in 2022. I’m not sure losing two of the last three years is the only reason Green has stalled out, but it certainly hasn’t helped his development.

Can he make it back into the Top 30? Can’t say I’m optimistic. Green is way behind where he needs to be developmentally and there are a lot of lower minors outfielders who are going to get playing time priority over him this year (Daury Arias, Anthony Hall, Spencer Jones, Madison Santos, etc.). His chances of a breakout season aren’t zero, but they’re close.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Travis Sawchik dug into the Rogers Centre renovations and found that while it might play the same overall, the new dimensions may result in more home runs to right and left fields, and fewer to center. Right field especially looks ripe for more dingers, so congrats to the Blue Jays for joining the short porch club. The Yankees don’t go to Toronto until the middle of May, so we’ll have a decent idea how the place plays before they visit … I mentioned this a few weeks ago and now it’s official: MLB will test a new PitchCom device in Spring Training that allows pitchers to call pitches. Last year only the catcher could call pitches. Now the pitcher can wear a wristband (not a remote on his belt as originally reported) and call pitches himself, according to Ben Walker. The league will test it in Spring Training, get feedback from players, then decide whether to approve it for the regular season. The Yankees were all-in on PitchCom last year, so I assume they’ll give this a whirl in camp. I like it. PitchCom sped things up nicely last season … According to Jesse Rogers, the MLB and MLBPA joint competition committee voted unanimously to make the extra-innings tiebreaker rule permanent. That isn’t a surprise. The league and players love it way more than fans. I like it, but I know I’m in the minority, so I’ll shut up. Also, Rogers says MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a rule adjustment to reduce the number of position player pitching appearances. Thank goodness. They happen all the time now. Not including Shohei Ohtani, there were a record 132 position player pitching appearances in 2022, which is a little less than one per day during the regular season. There were 57 position player pitching appearances during the entire 1990s. Here’s the number of times the Yankees have faced a position player pitcher:

• 1985-2015: 8
• 2016-21: 8
• 2022: 8

It’s too much. Putting a position player on the mound used to be the ultimate humiliation. Now it’s a strategy. The old rule (which itself was relatively new) said a position player could only pitch when the score was separated by at least six runs. The new rule limits position player pitching appearances to games in which their team is losing by at least eight runs or winning by at least 10 runs, or any point in extra innings. I’d push it to 10 runs ahead or trailing, but this is better than the status quo … Mike Curto has details on MLB’s automated strike zone plan for Triple-A this season. The fully automated zone will be used Monday through Thursday, and weekend games will feature the challenge system. With the challenge system, a human umpire calls balls and strikes, and each team can appeal to the automated zone up to three times per game (here is Jasson Domínguez using it in the Arizona Fall League). This means a) the automated zone is inching closer to MLB, and b) we’ll have Statcast for Triple-A Scranton. Hooray for that. I promise I won’t drown you in Austin Wells exit velocity data and Will Warren spin rate numbers (or maybe I will?), but it will be nice to have. Now we just need Double-A Somerset and High-A Hudson Valley to get onboard to complete the set (I’m not gonna hold my breath for rookie ball) … And finally, it was announced before the Super Bowl that Derek Jeter will join FOX as a studio analyst this season. The YES Network hoped to woo Jeter, though that never seemed likely, and now he is joining FOX. I mean, he’s Derek Jeter. If you were him, would you join the YES Network and do local broadcasts, or FOX and do national games? Yeah, me too. The YES Network and the Yankees are not most national broadcasts, but I’d go national too. Either way, Jeter talking baseball, coming to a television near you this season.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)